Service Plays Tuesday 03/31/09

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C-Stars Sports

5000 Units - NIT Game of the Year! Baylor over San Diego St.
50 Units Notre Dame/Penn St. UNDER the total
50 Units Oklahoma City plus the points over San Antonio
 

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Easy Dollars Selections:

5 UNTS : Atlanta Hawks +3

2 UNITS : Utah Jazz +6.5
2 UNITS : Penn State +4

2 UNITS : Baylor PK
 

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Stephen Nover

NBA

Minnesota (+8.5 -110)

Yes, it's hard to back the Timberwolves when taking less than double-digits.

But keep several things in mind:

The Timberwolves are 17-17 when scoring 100 or more points. Dallas has surrendered 102 to Cleveland, 103 to Denver and 106 to Golden State in its last three games. The Mavericks have allowed triple-digits in six of their past eight games.

The Mavericks don't have strong motivation for this game. They lead Phoenix by 3 1/2 games for the last playoff spot in the West.

Minnesota hasn't forgotten its last game against the Mavericks. The Timberwolves blew a 29-point lead in losing 107-100 at Dallas in late Dec. 30. That may have been their most bitter loss of the season. They haven't forgotten about that game.

Dallas is not a good road favorite, covering just once during the past six times it has been in that role.

The Timberwolves are missing key players because of injuries. But several players, including Rodney Carney and Kevin Love, have stepped up. Love is averaging 17 points and 9.7 rebounds in his last nine games.

The Mavericks also have a key injury. Josh Howard has missed the past 11 games.
 

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Kelso Tues

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50 units Baylor
25 units Nuggets
 

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Eddie Roman


2500 Dollar NBA Super System Lock

Denver Nuggets -12 over New York
 

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Notre Dame vs. PENN STATE (+4) - at New York, NY

By Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper

Winner last night on the New York Knicks plus the points.



Both schools have rattled off 3 wins in this NIT Tournament, but it is Penn State's 71-62 upset win at Florida in the quarterfinals as a double-digit dog that has us very impressed.



If the Nittany Lions can win in Gainsville, we feel they are more than capable of contending with the Irish for a spot in Thursday night's final.



Notre Dame has done the majority of their damage this season in South Bend, on the road Notre Dame is just 5-11 against the spread this season, including a 1-1 spilt both straight up, and against the spread on this court less then a month ago in the Big East tournament.



Penn State went a positive 9-7 against the spread on the road this year, incluing outright wins at Illinois, and Final Four-bound Michigan State, not to mention last week's win at Florida.



We give Penn State a fighting chance at making it to Thursday night's final, the fact we are catching a couple of baskets maes the play that much better.



Play on the Nittany's.

4♦ PENN STATE
 

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Brian Edwards

San Diego St vs. Baylor
Pick Baylor PK (+105)

No team (except for USC and Cleveland St.) has taken better advantage of March than Baylor, which was in the midst of an extremely disappointing year going into the Big 12 Tournament. Since then, the Bears have won six of their last seven games, including victories over Kansas and Texas. In the NIT, Baylor beat Georgetown at home before going on the road and winning at Va. Tech and at Auburn. San Diego St. had the good fortune of charting its path to NYC by plaing three in a row at home. Give me Baylor.
__________________
 

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Chris Jordan

Tuesday's winners ...

600♦ SAN DIEGO STATE - Ran my numbers last week, when the lines were set. Read all the stories I could on this game. Did my research continually, grabbing every bit of resource I could for this clash of overachievers. And though my mind was made up heading into this morning, about 4 a.m. pacific, on San Diego State, it wasn't until about 4:20 a.m. that I solidified my choice with such confidence ... thus the 600♦ rating.

The lead to the story reads this: "After an exhausting day of travel, the Baylor men’s basketball team arrived to a surreal scene outside of its Manhattan hotel early Monday morning."

Sure, the Bears have had a full day to rest; but if it was early Monday morning, that tells me this "team that had been on planes and buses all day from Waco to New York dodging nasty weather" is going to need more than an overnight rest to take on the No. 1 seed in this event.

According to that news report, the Bears had to "skirt around bad weather in New York and New Jersey on Sunday. After leaving Waco on their 50-seat charter plane in the afternoon, they took an alternate route to Greensboro, N.C. After a two-hour stopover, they still couldn’t get into the airport in Teterboro, N.J., due to the weather. So they flew to Allentown, Pa., and loaded on a bus for the last two hours to Manhattan."

Sorry, but that's too much to deal with for a team that's here because of a lucky run through the Big 12 Tournament, and likely would have been in one of those 'other' smaller tourneys if it would have bowed out of the Big 12 Tournament when we expected it to.

I'd much rather side with arguably the one team that had the legitimate argument it should have been in the Big Dance. San Diego State, which comes in 26-9 overall, got here courtesy of three straight home wins over Weber State, Kansas State and Saint Mary’s. The veteran-laden Aztecs feature four senior starters in forwards Lorrenzo Wade, Kyle Spain and Ryan Amoroso and guard Richie Williams.

And forget the fact this is a team that has a balanced attack on offense, I love the way the Aztecs use a tenacious defense that has limited foes to 40.7 percent shooting and 59.2 points per game.

Coach Steve Fisher has troops who are athletic and who do a great job of crashing the boards. And since they're all about the same size and share the sam abilities, it's hard to block them out. They’ve got four guys who rebound really well, and that goes a long way in gaining second-chance opportunities.

I'm not too worried about Baylor's zone defense, I think Fisher has enough talent and enough experience with his roster, to be able to break through that. I also think that even though Baylor has shot 57.1 percent overall and 43.9 percent from beyond the arc during their three tourney games, that weariness will kick in, along with the awe of playing in the middle of basketball's Mecca!

Take a look at the betting numbers, as they certainly favor us despite Baylor's 13-3 ATS run on neutral sites. The Bears are mired in ATS slides of 1-7 as the favorite, and a dismal 0-7 when laying the number in this range. That's why I am telling you the line is off ...

With the Aztecs, we have a team on ATS runs of 5-0 versus the Big 12, 5-0 versus non-conference foes, 8-2 following an ATS cover and 6-1 overall.

Take the slim dog, and try to get it before the line possibly moves the other way. And if I'm wrong, and the line goes up on Baylor, get you some more!!!

- PAID AND CONFIRMED
 

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Notre Dame -4.5 over Penn State

The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, while the Nittany Lions are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Irish are 12-3 vs non-conf opponents this year and that was vs teams with a winning pct of .585. The Lions have gone an impressive 14-2 vs thier non-conf opponent, but that was vs teams with a winning pct of just .404, so it really wasn't tha impressive. The Irih defense has been playing better of late as they have allowed just 63 ppg on just 37.9% shooting in their last 6 games. Th Lions have allowed just 62.7 pg overall, but in their last 4 games they have allowed 71.5 ppg. Overall the Irish' defensive efficiency is 86th, while PSU's is 117th. Notre Dame is 16th in offensive efficiency as they have averaged 75.5 ppg overall, including 74 ppg away from home. The Lions have averaged just 66.9 ppg overall , including 65 ppg away from home. Notre Dame is also the better rebounding team (30th to 214th) and they are much better at the FT line (111th to 261st). Notre Dame is much more battle tested than the Lions nd they should move on to the NIT Championship game with ease.


2 UNIT PLAYS

Old Dominion +2.5 Over Bradley

The Monarchs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games, while the Braves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. ODU hs been impressive in the CIT as the have won their 3 gams by an average of 18 ppg and that includes a 38 points win over a good James Madison squad last time out. In that last game ODU shot 46.2% from te field, while holding JMU to just 31.3% from the floor, plus they outrebounded the Dukes 51-21. That's total domination. The Braves have made it to the championship games but they have not impressed in getting here. In gme one thy struggled with Austin Peay, before winning by 7 and then they needed a75ft heave at the buzzer to beat a non-lined Oakland team. inally in their last game they did beat Pacific by 10, but they still only shot 44%from the floor and were outrebounded in the game. Bradley has been outrebounded in their last 4 games and must now take on n ODU team that in 25th in rebounding margin. I see the Monarchs taking tis one by 5+.


Baylor/ San Diego State Over 135

The Over is 9-3 in Aztecs last 12 neutral site games as an underdog. SDSU's offensive efficiency is 86th, while the Bears is 24th. Baylor's games were lower scoring down the stretch of the regular season, but their last6 in the post eason has averaged 142.7 ppg. Baylor's games have averaged 146.3 ppg overall and 67.3% of their games hav score more than tonights total. SDSU plays a slower brand of ball, but feel that the Bears will speed the game up enough to get this one in the 140's.


1 UNIT PLAY

Baylor -1 over San Diego State

The Bears are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games, while the Aztecs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. The Bears offense will be too much fo SDSU to handle as they move on to the Championship Game.


NBA

4 UNIT PLAY

(Power Angle Play)

CLEVELAND -9.5 ovr Detroit

The Pistons are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Cavaliers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, plus the Favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Cavs have been on quite a roll lately as they have won their last 12 in a row, and their last 3 wins have been by an average of 20.3 ppg. Cleveland is an amazing 35-1 at home this year and have outscored their oppnents by an average of 14.5 ppg, plus they have beaten Detroit by 21 points in their only meeting played here this year. Not only is the Fav 8-0 the last 8 in the series, but 7 of the 8 wins were by double digits and Cleveland is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 as a home fav in this series and have outscored the Pistons by 17.7 ppg. Detroit has been struggling once again as they have won just 5 of their last 9 games. Detroit is 28th in scoring (94 ppg) and must now take on a Cleveland team that is tops in scoring defense (90.9 ppg) and 2nd in defensive FG% (42.9%). Detrot has also scored just 93.6 pg on the road, while Cleveland has allowed just 88.3 ppg a home. For years the Piston's have ruled the roost in the Central Division, but the tide is changing and the Cavs will look to get revenge every chance they can. Detroit will be lucky to post 80 points in this one as the Cavs take it by 15+.

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- Since Jan of 1996 the Pistons are 0-16 ATS as a regular season dog of a win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first 3 quarters.


3 UNIT PLAYS

(Power Angle Play)

Dallas/ Minnesota Under 200

The Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Under is 9-1 in Timberwolves last 10 vs. Western Conference and 5-1 in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, plus the Under is 7- in the last 8 meetings in Minnesota. The T-Wolves last 8 games have averaged just 192.3 ppg, whie the last 5 meeings here have averaged just 177.8 ppg. Minnesota has averagd just 91.8 ppg in their last 8 games and they average 98.2 ppg overall. Th Dallas offense has not been that spectacular of late, as they hae averaged just 96.8 ppg in their lat 5 games, plus they only score 97 ppg on the road. The Mav last 5 games have averaged just 196.4 ppg, while their road games have put up just 196.9 ppg. This game will not feature 2 of the better defenses in the league, but with both offenses struggling right know I can only see a game in the low 190's at best.

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- Since Jan of 2000 the Under is 15-2-1 when the Mavs are off at least 1 days rest off a loss in which their pct of baskets that were assisted was at least 10% points higher than their seasonal average.


Lakers -5.5 over CHARLOTTE

The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference, while the Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Lakers are off a bad loss to the Hawks and this has been a team that hs bounced back nicely from losses this year. The Lakers are 11-3 SU off a loss this year and have outscored those opponents by an average of 6. ppg in th process, while each one of those 11 wins have been by 6 points or more. Charlotte has been paying better of late as they have won 5 of ther last 7 games, but only 1 of their wins was vs a winning and their two losses were vs losing teams. Not an impressive resume of late for the Bobcats. The Bobcats hve scored just 93.6 ppg at home, while Lakers have alow just 86.8 ppg in their last 4 games. The Lakers have score 106.3 pg on the road this year and and I just don't see the Bobcats being able to put up enough points to keep this one close. Lakers by double digits here.


2 UNIT PLAYS

Philly/ Atlanta Under 193

The Under is 9-4 in Hawks last 13 games following a ATS win, while the Under is 13-5-1 in 76ers last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Atlantahas scored just 97.3 ppg on the road, while the Sixers have put up just 97.7 ppg at home. The Sixers play excellent defense at home, where they allow just 93.5 ppg on the year. Atlanta has allowed just 96.2 pg overall and 95.2 ppg in their last 5 games. I just don't see this one hitting190 points, let alone 193.


Utah/ Portland Under 192.5

The Under is 13-3 in the Jazz last 16 games after scoing 100 points or more, while the Under is 20-8 in Portland's last 28 vs the Northwest.


1 UNIT PLAY

Chicago/ Indiana Under 215.5
 

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