THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NIT
(at New York)
Baylor (23-14, 12-17 ATS) vs. San Diego State (26-9, 18-12-1 ATS)
Baylor advanced to Madison Square Garden for the NIT semifinals with victories over Georgetown (74-72), Virginia Tech (84-66) and Auburn (74-72), going 2-1 ATS. After narrowly edging Georgetown at home, the Bears went on the road and upset the Hokies and Tigers, with the last-second win at Auburn coming a week ago tonight.
Baylor ended the regular season in a 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS funk – all against Big 12 opponents – but has since won six of seven both SU and ATS, with the only blemish being a 73-60 loss to Missouri as a 6½-point underdog in the Big 12 tournament championship game. Four of the team’s last five wins have come by a total of 17 points.
As one of the tournament’s No. 1 seeds, San Diego State hosted all three of its NIT games. After two blowout wins over Weber State (65-49 as an 11½-point favorite) and Kansas State (70-52 as a five-point chalk), the Aztecs on Wednesday jumped out to a large lead against No. 2-seeded St. Mary’s and held on for a 70-66 quarterfinal victory, cashing as a 3½-point home chalk.
The Aztecs, one of the last teams left out of the Big Dance, are on an 8-1 SU run and they’ve followed up an 0-6 ATS drought by cashing in six of their last seven contests. SDSU’s only defeat in the last five weeks was a last-second 52-50 loss to Utah in the Mountain West Conference tournament title game in Las Vegas on March 14.
These teams feature contrasting styles. Baylor averages 75.5 points per game on 46.4 percent shooting – including 73.6 ppg on 50.8 percent shooting in the last five games – while San Diego State gives up just 59.8 ppg on 41.2 percent shooting, including 56.2 ppg and 36.7 percent in the last five.
San Diego State is 5-2 on neutral courts this season (3-2-1 ATS in lined contests), while the Bears are 5-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites (the only loss coming to Missouri in the Big 12 tournament title game).
The Bears are on ATS runs of 13-3 at neutral sites and 4-1 after a victory, but they’ve failed to cash in seven straight games when laying less than seven points. San Diego State sports positive pointspread runs of 6-1 overall (all versus winning teams), 5-0 in non-conference play, 5-0 against the Big 12 and 8-2 after a spread-over, but the Aztecs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 at neutral sites and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 as a ‘dog of less than seven points.
For Baylor, the under is on streaks of 12-3-1 overall and 5-1-1 as a favorite. Meanwhile, San Diego State is in the midst of several “under” runs, including 39-16 overall, 35-16 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the Big 12, 7-1 at neutral sites, 11-3 as an underdog and 4-1 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Notre Dame (21-14, 12-18 ATS) vs. Penn State (25-11, 16-12-1 ATS)
After a pair of close home wins over UAB (70-64) and New Mexico (70-68), Notre Dame had a relatively easy time with Kentucky in Wednesday’s quarterfinals, rolling 77-67 as a 3½-point home favorite to advance to New York. The Fighting Irish, whose year was derailed by a seven-game midseason losing skid, have won nine of their last 13, going just 7-6 ATS. In fact, they’ve covered in consecutive outings just once the entire season.
Penn State, which was one of the last teams left out of the NCAA Tournament, needed a miracle three-pointer against George Mason to force overtime in its opening-round NIT contest. The Nittany Lions went on to win that game 77-73 as a 5½-point favorite, then got past Rhode Island (83-72 as a one-point home chalk) and Florida (71-62 as a 10½-point underdog) to punch their ticket to Madison Square Garden. Going back to Feb. 14, Penn State is on an 8-3 run (6-5 ATS).
Penn State is shooting 48 percent in the NIT and holding the opposition to 43.7 percent, while the Irish are connecting on just 41.4 percent of their field goals in this event and allowing opponents to shoot 43.9 percent
The Nittany Lions have split their four neutral-site games this season both SU and ATS, with the winner cashing in each contest. Likewise, Notre Dame has split six games at neutral venues this season both SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread each time.
Notre Dame continues to carry negative ATS trends of 3-8 after a SU win, 7-20 after an ATS triumph and 5-12 against teams with a winning record, but the Irish have cashed in seven consecutive Tuesday contests and four of their last five as a favorite. Penn State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 non-league outings, but 1-4-1 ATS In its last six against the Big East and 5-17-1 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog of less than seven points.
For the Irish, the “under” is on stretches of 8-1 overall, 8-3 at neutral sites 7-1 after a SU win, 7-1 as a favorite and 6-0 when giving points at neutral venues. Conversely, Penn State is on “over” tears of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the Big East, 4-1-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT
Old Dominion (24-10, 13-15-1 ATS) at Bradley (21-14, 16-15 ATS)
Old Dominion throttled Colonial Athletic Association rival James Madison 81-43 as an eight-point home favorite on Thursday to advance to the championship game of the inaugural College Insider Tournament. The Monarchs, who opened the tourney with a pair of eight-point home wins over The Citadel and Belmont, have won 13 of their last 15 games. They’re just 8-7 ATS during this stretch, but 3-1 SU and ATS on the highway (all in Colonial Athletic Association action).
Bradley barely knocked off both Austin Peay (81-74) and Oakland (76-75) in the first two rounds of the CIT, failing to cash in both games at home. But the Braves handled Pacific 59-49 on Wednesday and cashed as a five-point home favorite to halt overall ATS slides of 0-3 and 1-5. Bradley has followed up a four-game losing skid by going 8-2 in its last 10 (5-5 ATS), including 6-0 at home (3-3 ATS).
Old Dominion is on ATS runs of 8-3-1 as an underdog (7-3-1 as a road pup), 5-2 when catching less than seven points and 9-3 when playing on the road after three or more straight home games. However, the Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday outings and 4-18 ATS in their last 22 after a spread-cover.
Bradley’s ATS streaks include 37-18-3 at home, 9-4 as a favorite, 10-4 as a chalk of less than seven points, 23-10 after a SU win and 10-1 after surrendering less than 50 points in their previous contest. On the downside, the Braves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight out of conference and 1-5 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning record.
The Braves carry “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 41-19-1 as a home chalk, 10-4-1 on Tuesday and 6-2 as a favorite. Conversely, the under for Old Dominion is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 8-2 on the road, 5-0 after a SU win and 9-2 as a road ‘dog of less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Atlanta (43-31, 41-32-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (37-35, 32-38-2 ATS)
The 76ers look to halt a two-game slide and continue their playoff push when they welcome the Hawks to the Wachovia Center.
Philadelphia followed up Friday’s 100-95 home loss to Charlotte as a 4½-point favorite with Sunday’s 101-97 setback at Detroit as a 2½-point underdog. The Sixers’ two-game dip comes on the heels of a 7-2 SU run, and they’ve now failed to cover in three straight games, five of the last seven and 15 of the last 22. Also, Philly is just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS at home during this 22-game stretch.
Atlanta is coming off Sunday’s 83-76 upset victory over the Lakers as a 3½-point home favorite, a triumph that came after consecutive home losses to the Spurs (102-92) and Celtics (99-93). The Hawks, who have played 11 of their last 12 games at home, get four of their next five on the road, where they’ve lost three in a row and six out of seven (3-4 ATS), the only win coming at lowly Washington.
These squads split their first two meetings this season, both in Atlanta, with the Hawks winning 95-88 as a 2½-point chalk and losing 109-94 as a 5½-point choice. Despite the 76ers’ cover in the latter contest, they’re still only 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Hawks, including 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) at home. Also, the underdog is on a 6-2-1 ATS roll and the road team is on a 5-1-1 ATS romp in this rivalry.
Atlanta has failed to cover in six of its last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents, but otherwise the Hawks are on ATS runs of 9-2-1 overall, 9-3 against the Eastern Conference, 10-2 versus winning teams, 5-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 as an underdog and 12-5 as a pup of less than five points. Philadelphia is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 against the Southeast Division, but from there the pointspread runs turn negative, including 2-5 overall, 2-7 at home, 3-7 as a favorite, 4-10 as a home chalk of less than five points and 3-7 after a SU defeat.
For the Hawks, the “over” is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. For the Sixers, the “over” streaks include 6-1 overall, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2-1 versus the Southeast Division, 8-3-1 as a favorite, 9-3 on Tuesday, 4-1 when playing after one day of rest and 16-5-2 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Utah (46-27, 37-36 ATS) at Portland (46-27, 38-34 ATS)
Two of the top three teams in the crowded Northwest Division square off at the Rose Garden, as the Blazers will host the Jazz.
Utah knocked off the Knicks 112-104 at home on Monday night to move into a second place tie with Portland in the Northwest Division, 1½ games behind the Nuggets, whom the Jazz will play in Denver on Thursday. Utah has rebounded from a three-game SU losing streak to win five of its last six, and since the beginning of February, Jerry Sloan’s squad is on a 20-5 SU run. However, the Jazz failed to cash as an 11-point favorite against the Knicks and they’ve followed up a 9-1 ATS run by going 5-10 ATS in their last 15.
Portland has been idle since Saturday’s 86-66 pummeling of Memphis as a 12½-point home favorite. It was the Blazers’ best defensive effort and the Grizzlies’ lowest point total of the season. Portland is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games and it has covered in six of its last seven overall. Additionally, Nate McMillan’s squad is 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS in its last 17 at the Rose Garden
The home team has dominated this rivalry lately, winning six straight meetings and nine of the last 10 both SU and ATS, with the winner covering the pointspread in all 10 contests. This season, the Jazz won the first two clashes at home – 103-96 as a 6½-point favorite and 97-88 as a three-point chalk – but Portland cruised to a 122-108 win as a nine-point chalk in the most recent meeting Jan. 31.
Also in this divisional tussle, the favorite has gotten the money in each of the last five head-to-head battles, and going back several years, the host is on a 20-8 ATS roll, with the Blazers riding a five-game SU and ATS winning streak against the Jazz inside the Rose Garden.
Utah is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five roadies after going 4-0 SU and ATS in its previous four on the highway. Additionally, the Jazz are in pointspread ruts of 2-7 overall, 1-9 as an underdog, 0-8 as a road pup, 1-7 against winning teams and 2-7 when playing on back-to-back nights. Conversely, in addition to their 6-1 ATS run overall, the Blazers are on positive ATS streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 on Tuesday, 4-1 against the Western Conference and 5-1 when going on two days’ rest.
The under is on runs of 5-2 for Utah overall, 7-1 for Utah against the Western Conference, 9-3 for Utah on Tuesday and 20-8 for Portland in divisional contests. On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 7-3-1 for the Blazers at home, 4-0 when the Blazers are favored by 5 to 10½ points and 15-5-1 when the Jazz are an underdog. Finally, the total has alternated in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
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