6 Unit Play. NBA Total of the Month. Take Under 207.5 between Golden State @ San Antonio Spurs (Tuesday @ 8:30pm est). We hit a big play in cbb yesterday and hopefully that translates into a big play win for us in the nba today. It's been a while since I released a big play in the NBA as I'm not the type of person to release many big plays, but I feel like my research has yielded a potential golden nugget, why not step out? It's a long betting season and our standard wager is 4* and today it is a 6*. It just depends on what presents itself for us to step out or not and today I believe we have a nice spot to do so. The Spurs host the Warriors today and the Spurs come off back to back losses to both Houston and Boston by 2 and 3 points respectively. This team is obviously a bit peeved and the way they show their frustration is through defense. The Spurs have quietly gone under in their last 5 games and 7 of their last 10. They just held the Rockets to 85 points (Under 177) and the Celtics to 77 points (Under 183). Prior to that they held the Timberwolves to under (189.5), Phoenix to 98 points (game totaled at 201) and Charlotte to 78 points (game totaled at 178). Now, they face a Golden State team that is very competent and capable. But, this team struggles against strong defenses on the road. Remember, GS only put up 88 at Chicago, 91 at Detroit and 89 at New Orleans. The Warriors have solid depth but they will be without Biedrins, Crawford and Belinelli is questionable. The last time these two teams met the Spurs won in overtime and that game totaled 215 in overtime and totaled and 190 in regulation. So, for the fact that game totaled 190 in regulation in Golden State, and the fact that this total is set at 207.5 when the Spurs come off back to back home losses is significant. I expect the Spurs to likely give up no more than 90 points to the Warriors today while the put up points in the low 100's likely. I have this game at 193 or so which is a double-digit differential to where the total stands now. The under is 6-0 when the Warriors play a team with a winning home record of more than 60% - meaning when the Warriors play good teams on the road, they hold serve with sound defense against this team. The Under is 5-0 for the Spurs following a straight up loss and the Under is 6-0 for the Spurs when they face a team with winning % less than 40% meaning the Spurs take their anger out well with sound defense off a loss and against weaker teams they play even better defense. Plus, this is a sound public fade which adds a bit of an icing on the cake for us as well. We have quite a bit of factors working for us and it is a long week, but I believe we have a strong shot at a cover for the under here.
4 Unit Play. Take Florida -10.5 over Penn State (Tuesday @ 7pm est). Your write-up by 11am eastern. I'm glad we were able to cash with our 5* selection yesterday on the over between Richmond vs. Charleston. Although, I wish we could have cashed on the secondary play with Belmont who covered the entire game and fell short in the end. We still made some money on Monday and it's a long week. As per today, as you know I follow the Big10 and the SEC closely - both for basketball and football. This is an awful lot of points for a Big 10 team in Penn State and the public seems to agree to a tune of 65%. What you have is what folks will talk about today as a Big10 clash vs. the SEC. Penn State had it fairly easy early in defeating George Mason and Rhode Island at home (both good teams - but both who they faced at home) - as they defeated a top 90 team and a top 75 team. Now, they face a top 30 team in Florida on the road. Remember Penn State lost to Ohio State by 14, Purdue by 14, Michigan by 20 and Minnesota by 20. Florida has played 5 straight unders and Penn State has played 5 of 6 overs. This goes to show that Penn State's offense has been sound at home but on the road they stagger on offense. Plus, their defense is not as sound right now while Florida's defense is solid currently and they are playing great basketball at home. Heck, Florida just beat a solid Miami team at home by 14 who is ranked in the top 40. This team also beat a Jacksonville team at home by 22. Why can't this team beat a Penn State team who is at best as good as Miami and cover the -10.5? Nick C. is considering the NBA draft as a Gator and I would expect him to have a big game today and this puts Billy D on the national spotlight again as one of the two games that is highlighted in the nation today. I expect Florida to take advantage of this situation and be able to produce plenty of fireworks on offense today. Remember, Florida puts up on average 77.5 points per game and they just dropped 74 on a Miami team that plays great defense. If Miami was only able to score 60 on Florida's defense, than Penn State is really going to struggle. Remember, once again, this team put up just 51 points at Michigan, 44 at Wisconsin, 47 at Purdue, 59 at Ohio State and 59 at Minnesota. I have this game around a 76-62 type of ball game as the Gators barely hit the cover, but do so while the majority of the public takes it up the chin a bit here. Remember, it is always a decent bet to fade a public underdog. The Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS as road underdogs of late and Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Florida -10.5 over Penn State (Tuesday @ 7pm est). Your write-up by 11am eastern. I'm glad we were able to cash with our 5* selection yesterday on the over between Richmond vs. Charleston. Although, I wish we could have cashed on the secondary play with Belmont who covered the entire game and fell short in the end. We still made some money on Monday and it's a long week. As per today, as you know I follow the Big10 and the SEC closely - both for basketball and football. This is an awful lot of points for a Big 10 team in Penn State and the public seems to agree to a tune of 65%. What you have is what folks will talk about today as a Big10 clash vs. the SEC. Penn State had it fairly easy early in defeating George Mason and Rhode Island at home (both good teams - but both who they faced at home) - as they defeated a top 90 team and a top 75 team. Now, they face a top 30 team in Florida on the road. Remember Penn State lost to Ohio State by 14, Purdue by 14, Michigan by 20 and Minnesota by 20. Florida has played 5 straight unders and Penn State has played 5 of 6 overs. This goes to show that Penn State's offense has been sound at home but on the road they stagger on offense. Plus, their defense is not as sound right now while Florida's defense is solid currently and they are playing great basketball at home. Heck, Florida just beat a solid Miami team at home by 14 who is ranked in the top 40. This team also beat a Jacksonville team at home by 22. Why can't this team beat a Penn State team who is at best as good as Miami and cover the -10.5? Nick C. is considering the NBA draft as a Gator and I would expect him to have a big game today and this puts Billy D on the national spotlight again as one of the two games that is highlighted in the nation today. I expect Florida to take advantage of this situation and be able to produce plenty of fireworks on offense today. Remember, Florida puts up on average 77.5 points per game and they just dropped 74 on a Miami team that plays great defense. If Miami was only able to score 60 on Florida's defense, than Penn State is really going to struggle. Remember, once again, this team put up just 51 points at Michigan, 44 at Wisconsin, 47 at Purdue, 59 at Ohio State and 59 at Minnesota. I have this game around a 76-62 type of ball game as the Gators barely hit the cover, but do so while the majority of the public takes it up the chin a bit here. Remember, it is always a decent bet to fade a public underdog. The Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS as road underdogs of late and Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy
STAN SHARP
DOUBLE DIME
GOLDEN ST + 8 OVER SAN ANTONIO @ 835est
Stan notes that the public will run to the san antonio side expecting them to bounce back from losses against boston & houston . The value here is with golden st. as this game will be closer than people think . Take golden st as stan sharps INSIDER GAME OF THE WEEK . **DOUBLE DIME*
DOUBLE DIME
GOLDEN ST + 8 OVER SAN ANTONIO @ 835est
Stan notes that the public will run to the san antonio side expecting them to bounce back from losses against boston & houston . The value here is with golden st. as this game will be closer than people think . Take golden st as stan sharps INSIDER GAME OF THE WEEK . **DOUBLE DIME*
