Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat - Tuesday February 24, 2009 7:35 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Miami Heat -5 (-110)
As is the case with many of our picks, this one is technically on Miami, but it's more against Detroit, whose season TY can best be described by the 1970s Simon & Garfunkel song entitled "Slip Slidin Away." Piston management made a big mistake dealing star point guard chauncey billups to denver in early November for Allen Iverson, who has not turned out to be the "Answer" for their offensive problems, and while replacement PG Stuckey showed promiise both in LY's playoffs and early on TY, he has not played very well for the past few weeks. Nor have nagging injuries to Rip Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace (both of whom are now playing, but obviously in some pain and not at full strength) helped. The recent result of all this is that Detroit has been a travelling train wreck over their last ten games, going a miserable 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in them, including (being mired in) an ugly six game losing streak (both SU and ATS), with their latest example of "ugly ball" being their 21 point loss at the "Q" on Sunday to Cleve, a team they used to dominate. And while Miami is also coming off of an equally ugly performance, a 23 point loss at Orlando, the similarity ends there, as these two teams have reacted very differently to losses TY -- while Heat is 15-10 off a loss, pistons are a miserable 7-19 ATS, which indicates two major negatives on their part, especially in a post-loss mode like tonite -- they have no "heart" and they have begun to "accept" losing as a way of life.
But the negatives for detroit don't end there, as they are 13-24 after scoring < 100 points, and 14-24 ATS after allowing < 100, boith of which apply after their 78-99 loss at Cleve on Sunday.Contrast to Miami, which reacts very well after a poor defensive game like they played sunday at Orlando (giving up 122 points), as Heat is a stellar 12-5 ATS in games after after yielding 100> points.Both teams are playing on one day of rest, a mode which has been kind to Heat backers, with Miami 16-12 ATS in that rest mode, compared to a lousy 11-18 ATS for Detroit.
Pistons used to be tough "outs" as road dogs, but not so any more, as they are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs visiting B teams (like Miami) and C teams, incl recent SU and ATS losses visiting C teams Chicago and indy.
So go with Miami at -5 or less to get the win and the cover.