'NFL Kick-Off'
The NFL season opens Thursday night in Seattle when Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 24-8 SU record with a profitable 23-9 mark against the betting line including 12-5 ATS as a home favorite sportsbooks have the defending Champions 6.0 to 6.5-point favorite. Even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers taking snaps the Packers have a tough road ahead facing a Seahawks squad which lead the 2013 NFL campaign in scoring defense (14.4), total defense (273.6) and interceptions (28). Sifting through betting numbers Seahawks are a good choice as they're a sparkling 7-0 ATS at home in September under Pete Caroll. A deeper dive into the NFL Betting Database tells us Packers facing a defensive minded squad on the road and scoring =< 21 points are dangerous betting options as they're 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 situations. Also well to note, Packers were in the role of road underdog four times last season going 1-3 against the betting line and hit the field 1-5 last six taking points in enemy territory.
The NFL season opens Thursday night in Seattle when Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 24-8 SU record with a profitable 23-9 mark against the betting line including 12-5 ATS as a home favorite sportsbooks have the defending Champions 6.0 to 6.5-point favorite. Even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers taking snaps the Packers have a tough road ahead facing a Seahawks squad which lead the 2013 NFL campaign in scoring defense (14.4), total defense (273.6) and interceptions (28). Sifting through betting numbers Seahawks are a good choice as they're a sparkling 7-0 ATS at home in September under Pete Caroll. A deeper dive into the NFL Betting Database tells us Packers facing a defensive minded squad on the road and scoring =< 21 points are dangerous betting options as they're 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 situations. Also well to note, Packers were in the role of road underdog four times last season going 1-3 against the betting line and hit the field 1-5 last six taking points in enemy territory.
Hondo
Hondo’s roaring
It’s sweeps week for Hondo, who swept Monday, got swept Tuesday and then swept again Wednesday night as he cashed with the Yankees and Tigers to reduce the dirty digits to 1,655 berenguers. It’s also sweeps week for Hondo’s aged and mathematically challenged accountant, CP Addemup, who will be swept out of a job if he makes another double-C-note error as he did recently.
Thursday night: There will be no sweep for Mr. Aitch, who in his only investment expects a max effort from Scherzer against the Native Americans — 10 units on the Tigers.
Hondo’s roaring
It’s sweeps week for Hondo, who swept Monday, got swept Tuesday and then swept again Wednesday night as he cashed with the Yankees and Tigers to reduce the dirty digits to 1,655 berenguers. It’s also sweeps week for Hondo’s aged and mathematically challenged accountant, CP Addemup, who will be swept out of a job if he makes another double-C-note error as he did recently.
Thursday night: There will be no sweep for Mr. Aitch, who in his only investment expects a max effort from Scherzer against the Native Americans — 10 units on the Tigers.
VegasButcher
Green Bay Packers +6
I’ve made the case for the Packers in this game in my NFL Preview: VegasButcher's 2014 NFL Preview so I won’t go into too much detail in this analysis, but I will highlight a few things.
•Packer’s pass rush will be an issue for Seattle. Signing Peppers to start opposite of Matthews is a big factor here as Seattle’s O-line ranked dead-last in Adjusted Sack Rate last season. Sure the line will be healthier but it’s still a major weakness for the Seahawks. Improved pass-rush by Green Bay will help control the line of scrimmage and I don’t see Seattle being as efficient offensively.
•Green Bay’s offense this year will be more dominant than at any point over the last few years. That’s saying a lot, but with the addition of Lacy and dominant run-blocking (5th in ALY) that Packers’ O-line displayed last season, I don’t see how this Packers team doesn’t improve offensively. An effective run-game will slow down Seattle’s pass-rush, will force the safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and will of course enable the Packers to control the clock in the 2nd half of the game if they have a lead. Rodgers is an absolute stud, but with an elite run-game (something he never had before), he’ll be a super-stud this year and that’s a scary thing.
•Regression is a fact not fiction. Seattle’s D played at a historically high level last season and though some might expect the same level of efficiency, it’s very unlikely. Regression will happen and I have a hard time seeing this Seattle D being just as good. Add in the fact that NFL is cracking down on holding, jamming past the 5 yard line, and just general contact with WR’s down the field, and it’s not so difficult to see that Seattle’s D will need to make some adjustments which might take some time. This could be a very critical factor in this game as Green Bay has an elite offense and could cause major issues for Seattle’s physical-style of play.
•Familiarity with Harvin. This one is not so obvious, but it’s a factor in Green Bay’s direction. Having faced Harvin for a number of years when he played with the Vikings, Packers are very familiar with his abilities. The guy missed a lot of time over the last few years, and teams within Seattle’s division might not have seen him before, making him possibly an even bigger weapon than he already is. But not so against the Packers who have a better shot of containing him than others.
•Scrap the SuperBowl from your memory. I’ve heard people say that Seattle will crush the Packers on Thursday, like they did to Denver in the SB. That’s a very dangerous approach to this game. Denver was decimated with injuries on defense in the SB last year and had virtually zero pass-rush in that game (Miller was injured, remember?). Packers will have a potentially scary pass-rush this season. Denver had Peyton Manning throwing passes, who is very accurate but lacks the mobility and arm-strength at this point of his career to get the ball down the field and in tight coverage against a dominant D. Seattle played Denver’s receivers very tight, put a lot of pressure on Manning, and the final results spoke for themselves. Well, Rodgers has a rocket, he is extremely mobile, but most importantly he’s not afraid to squeeze the ball into tight windows and actually is one of the better QB’s in placing the ball in the right spot for his receivers. The physical, tight coverage of Seattle’s secondary won’t be as big of a factor against Rodgers as it was against Manning in the SB. Besides, Denver had a banged up and used up Moreno running the ball for them in the SB. Packers will have a young, healthy bruiser in Lacy on Thursday.
I believe Green Bay will be one of the better teams in the league this year. They’ll have an elite offense and most importantly they should have a much better D than last season. This team lost @ San Fran by 6 last year, @ Cincy by 4, and against San Fran in the Wild Card game by 3, a game where neither Rodgers nor Cobb were necessarily at full strength (both just came back from serious injuries). That’s very impressive to me as both San Fran and Cincy had terrific defenses last season and played a similar ball-control/strong-D type of a game that Seattle likes to implement. This year, Green Bay will be flat-out better than last year and Seattle will regress a bit. I believe 6 points is way too much here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one fall to 5.5 and maybe even lower by tomorrow. Should be a great game but no way will this one be a blowout from my perspective. Grab the points and enjoy the start of the NFL season!
Green Bay Packers +6
I’ve made the case for the Packers in this game in my NFL Preview: VegasButcher's 2014 NFL Preview so I won’t go into too much detail in this analysis, but I will highlight a few things.
•Packer’s pass rush will be an issue for Seattle. Signing Peppers to start opposite of Matthews is a big factor here as Seattle’s O-line ranked dead-last in Adjusted Sack Rate last season. Sure the line will be healthier but it’s still a major weakness for the Seahawks. Improved pass-rush by Green Bay will help control the line of scrimmage and I don’t see Seattle being as efficient offensively.
•Green Bay’s offense this year will be more dominant than at any point over the last few years. That’s saying a lot, but with the addition of Lacy and dominant run-blocking (5th in ALY) that Packers’ O-line displayed last season, I don’t see how this Packers team doesn’t improve offensively. An effective run-game will slow down Seattle’s pass-rush, will force the safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and will of course enable the Packers to control the clock in the 2nd half of the game if they have a lead. Rodgers is an absolute stud, but with an elite run-game (something he never had before), he’ll be a super-stud this year and that’s a scary thing.
•Regression is a fact not fiction. Seattle’s D played at a historically high level last season and though some might expect the same level of efficiency, it’s very unlikely. Regression will happen and I have a hard time seeing this Seattle D being just as good. Add in the fact that NFL is cracking down on holding, jamming past the 5 yard line, and just general contact with WR’s down the field, and it’s not so difficult to see that Seattle’s D will need to make some adjustments which might take some time. This could be a very critical factor in this game as Green Bay has an elite offense and could cause major issues for Seattle’s physical-style of play.
•Familiarity with Harvin. This one is not so obvious, but it’s a factor in Green Bay’s direction. Having faced Harvin for a number of years when he played with the Vikings, Packers are very familiar with his abilities. The guy missed a lot of time over the last few years, and teams within Seattle’s division might not have seen him before, making him possibly an even bigger weapon than he already is. But not so against the Packers who have a better shot of containing him than others.
•Scrap the SuperBowl from your memory. I’ve heard people say that Seattle will crush the Packers on Thursday, like they did to Denver in the SB. That’s a very dangerous approach to this game. Denver was decimated with injuries on defense in the SB last year and had virtually zero pass-rush in that game (Miller was injured, remember?). Packers will have a potentially scary pass-rush this season. Denver had Peyton Manning throwing passes, who is very accurate but lacks the mobility and arm-strength at this point of his career to get the ball down the field and in tight coverage against a dominant D. Seattle played Denver’s receivers very tight, put a lot of pressure on Manning, and the final results spoke for themselves. Well, Rodgers has a rocket, he is extremely mobile, but most importantly he’s not afraid to squeeze the ball into tight windows and actually is one of the better QB’s in placing the ball in the right spot for his receivers. The physical, tight coverage of Seattle’s secondary won’t be as big of a factor against Rodgers as it was against Manning in the SB. Besides, Denver had a banged up and used up Moreno running the ball for them in the SB. Packers will have a young, healthy bruiser in Lacy on Thursday.
I believe Green Bay will be one of the better teams in the league this year. They’ll have an elite offense and most importantly they should have a much better D than last season. This team lost @ San Fran by 6 last year, @ Cincy by 4, and against San Fran in the Wild Card game by 3, a game where neither Rodgers nor Cobb were necessarily at full strength (both just came back from serious injuries). That’s very impressive to me as both San Fran and Cincy had terrific defenses last season and played a similar ball-control/strong-D type of a game that Seattle likes to implement. This year, Green Bay will be flat-out better than last year and Seattle will regress a bit. I believe 6 points is way too much here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one fall to 5.5 and maybe even lower by tomorrow. Should be a great game but no way will this one be a blowout from my perspective. Grab the points and enjoy the start of the NFL season!
BONES BEST BET
Teaser – 7 points – Ties reduce
PACKERS +12.5 / PACKERS SEAHAWKS – OVER 40 -120 *4* BEST BET
Do not be surprised if this Packers team goes into Seattle tonight and “shocks the world.” Green Bay wants to play a very fast paced offense this year as they are built to do just that and they may cause some problems for the league’s best defense. Green Bay will score – as long as they don’t get run all over by the tune of 35+ points, we expect this ticket this cash with ease.
Teaser – 7 points – Ties reduce
PACKERS +12.5 / PACKERS SEAHAWKS – OVER 40 -120 *4* BEST BET
Do not be surprised if this Packers team goes into Seattle tonight and “shocks the world.” Green Bay wants to play a very fast paced offense this year as they are built to do just that and they may cause some problems for the league’s best defense. Green Bay will score – as long as they don’t get run all over by the tune of 35+ points, we expect this ticket this cash with ease.
DAVE COKIN
Wiseguy Action Report (CFB + NFL)
Welcome to another edition of Wise Guy Wednesday. This is my weekly rundown of where the early pro dough is going in both college football and the NFL. The info is gathered from various sources, including local, contacts I’ve got offshore, as well as stateside books outside of Nevada.
It’s always worth mentioning that early week line moves, even those that are the most significant in terms of variance from the true opener, are not automatically wise guy moves. There are a few notable services that release early selections, and absolutely create line movement in the process. Plus, there are games that draw the vast majority of the early action, enough so that the prices change, but are not considered pro plays. Comments are from the sources, as I try to leave my own opinions out of this rundown. Let’s go!
302 UTSA was a major pro mover in Week One and the Roadrunners blasted Houston. It looks as though they’re getting bought again, although it’s nowhere near as heavy as last time.
310 Iowa State is getting some tepid support, although the general consensus seems to be that this might be more maneuvering to influence the number and that Kansas State could get bought back late. The public will be on the Wildcats on game day.
325 Arkansas State is drawing some sharp action. Some brief elaboration here. The biggest difference between Pros and Joes is that the latter segment of the betting population only remembers the last thing they saw and reacts accordingly. Tennessee just mauled a Utah State team that drew a load of sharp money last week. The public now wants nothing to do with going against the Vols. The pros are never as easily convinced and they’re taking the road dog right now.
331 New Mexico State is mildly popular with the wise guys. But this is an ugly game with zero marquee appeal, so even a trickle of pro money is going to impact the line, which it already has.
339 USC is getting play, and I’m getting varying opinions on what this number will do as the week progresses. One of my east coast guys is convinced this will be Clemson/Georgia all over again and that after getting dog action throughout the week, he is adamant there’s going to be a late flood of sharp dollars on Stanford.
341 Akron got hit hard early and the line in their game with Penn State has been the biggest mover of the week. But note this might not be true pro money. Direct comment from one contact was “I knew we’d get all dog play early as everyone wants to play against Penn State off the long trip and that crazy finish. We’re not stupid. That’s already built into the line.”
352 Oregon took sharp action early. The consensus is that the squares will buy the dog here, and the pros are going to come back and take more Ducks later.
383 Air Force has already moved from dog to favorite and the expectation is that this number might keep going up. In other words, this is one of those if you snoozed, you lose games.
Moving to the NFL:
469 Jaguars figured to be an auto-play for the sharps as they always grab doubles if available in Week One.
478 Texans are looking like a popular pro side, although it’s not overwhelming.
479 Titans is clearly shaping up as the pros/joes battleground game of the week with the sharps hitting the dog in a big way. Opinion among my contacts is that the amateurs are going to bet on KC on game day.
484 Buccaneers is the other very hot pro choice to open the week, and Tampa Bay is also taking public money as well. Thus, there’s little value to be had on that matchup as that ship has already sailed, so to speak.
Wiseguy Action Report (CFB + NFL)
Welcome to another edition of Wise Guy Wednesday. This is my weekly rundown of where the early pro dough is going in both college football and the NFL. The info is gathered from various sources, including local, contacts I’ve got offshore, as well as stateside books outside of Nevada.
It’s always worth mentioning that early week line moves, even those that are the most significant in terms of variance from the true opener, are not automatically wise guy moves. There are a few notable services that release early selections, and absolutely create line movement in the process. Plus, there are games that draw the vast majority of the early action, enough so that the prices change, but are not considered pro plays. Comments are from the sources, as I try to leave my own opinions out of this rundown. Let’s go!
302 UTSA was a major pro mover in Week One and the Roadrunners blasted Houston. It looks as though they’re getting bought again, although it’s nowhere near as heavy as last time.
310 Iowa State is getting some tepid support, although the general consensus seems to be that this might be more maneuvering to influence the number and that Kansas State could get bought back late. The public will be on the Wildcats on game day.
325 Arkansas State is drawing some sharp action. Some brief elaboration here. The biggest difference between Pros and Joes is that the latter segment of the betting population only remembers the last thing they saw and reacts accordingly. Tennessee just mauled a Utah State team that drew a load of sharp money last week. The public now wants nothing to do with going against the Vols. The pros are never as easily convinced and they’re taking the road dog right now.
331 New Mexico State is mildly popular with the wise guys. But this is an ugly game with zero marquee appeal, so even a trickle of pro money is going to impact the line, which it already has.
339 USC is getting play, and I’m getting varying opinions on what this number will do as the week progresses. One of my east coast guys is convinced this will be Clemson/Georgia all over again and that after getting dog action throughout the week, he is adamant there’s going to be a late flood of sharp dollars on Stanford.
341 Akron got hit hard early and the line in their game with Penn State has been the biggest mover of the week. But note this might not be true pro money. Direct comment from one contact was “I knew we’d get all dog play early as everyone wants to play against Penn State off the long trip and that crazy finish. We’re not stupid. That’s already built into the line.”
352 Oregon took sharp action early. The consensus is that the squares will buy the dog here, and the pros are going to come back and take more Ducks later.
383 Air Force has already moved from dog to favorite and the expectation is that this number might keep going up. In other words, this is one of those if you snoozed, you lose games.
Moving to the NFL:
469 Jaguars figured to be an auto-play for the sharps as they always grab doubles if available in Week One.
478 Texans are looking like a popular pro side, although it’s not overwhelming.
479 Titans is clearly shaping up as the pros/joes battleground game of the week with the sharps hitting the dog in a big way. Opinion among my contacts is that the amateurs are going to bet on KC on game day.
484 Buccaneers is the other very hot pro choice to open the week, and Tampa Bay is also taking public money as well. Thus, there’s little value to be had on that matchup as that ship has already sailed, so to speak.
BeatYourBookie
THURSDAY
10* Play Green Bay +6 over Seattle (Top NFL Play)
Green Bay is 84-74 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
Green Bay is 32-20 ATS vs. NFC West Division Opponents
Green Bay is 63-53 ATS when playing as an underdog
10* Play Texas-San Antonio +7 over Arizona (Top NCAA Play)
Arizona is 47-75 ATS when playing as a favorite
Arizona is 31-42 ATS when playing in the month of September
Arizona is 42-68 ATS coming off a win against the spread in their last game
THURSDAY
10* Play Green Bay +6 over Seattle (Top NFL Play)
Green Bay is 84-74 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
Green Bay is 32-20 ATS vs. NFC West Division Opponents
Green Bay is 63-53 ATS when playing as an underdog
10* Play Texas-San Antonio +7 over Arizona (Top NCAA Play)
Arizona is 47-75 ATS when playing as a favorite
Arizona is 31-42 ATS when playing in the month of September
Arizona is 42-68 ATS coming off a win against the spread in their last game
