Latewinners
CFB Update
# 161 Appalachian State OVER
# 173 Marshall UNDER
# 187 West Michigan OVER
# 185 Louisiana Tech OVER
# 163 Troy
# 163 Troy OVER
# 161 Appalachian State
# 165 California
# 175 Rice
# 141 Temple
# 165 California UNDER
# 149 Colorado State UNDER
# 147 Bowling Green OVER
# 195 Washington University
# 183 Ohio UNDER
# 190 Florida
# 171 Boston College
# 200 Texas
# 167 Georgia Southern
# 136 UL Monroe
# 192 USC -21.5 # 201 UTEP UNDER 67
# 181 Clemson UNDER 56.5
# 151 Texas San Antonio UNDER
# 179 Arkasas
# 192 USC -21.5# 201 UTEP UNDER 67
# 181 Clemson UNDER 56.5
# 151 Texas San Antonio UNDER
CFB 8.30
# 199 North Texas UNDER
CFB 8.29
# 145 BYU OVER
CFB Update
# 161 Appalachian State OVER
# 173 Marshall UNDER
# 187 West Michigan OVER
# 185 Louisiana Tech OVER
# 163 Troy
# 163 Troy OVER
# 161 Appalachian State
# 165 California
# 175 Rice
# 141 Temple
# 165 California UNDER
# 149 Colorado State UNDER
# 147 Bowling Green OVER
# 195 Washington University
# 183 Ohio UNDER
# 190 Florida
# 171 Boston College
# 200 Texas
# 167 Georgia Southern
# 136 UL Monroe
# 192 USC -21.5 # 201 UTEP UNDER 67
# 181 Clemson UNDER 56.5
# 151 Texas San Antonio UNDER
# 179 Arkasas
# 192 USC -21.5# 201 UTEP UNDER 67
# 181 Clemson UNDER 56.5
# 151 Texas San Antonio UNDER
CFB 8.30
# 199 North Texas UNDER
CFB 8.29
# 145 BYU OVER
Game of the Day: Texas A&M at South Carolina
Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (-10.5, 60.5)
The post-Johnny Manziel era is set to get underway for No. 20 Texas A&M, which faces a brutal season-opening test at SEC rival and ninth-ranked South Carolina on Thursday. Even though the Aggies must replace the former Heisman Trophy winner, many will argue that the Gamecocks endured an even bigger loss than Manziel with the departure of all-world defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, the top overall pick in the NFL draft. It will mark the first-ever meeting between the schools.
South Carolina, which never has won an SEC championship, is coming off three consecutive 11-win seasons under legendary coach Steve Spurrier and was the preseason choice to win the East Division. Texas A&M was expected to struggle upon moving from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012 but, buoyed by the wondrous talents of Manziel, the Aggies went 20-6 in their first two seasons and capped each with a bowl victory. Sophomore Kenny Hill will be in the spotlight after narrowly beating out Kyle Allen as Manziel's successor.
TV: 6 p.m. ET, SEC Network.
LINE HISTORY: The Gamecocks opened as 11-point favorites, where bet down to -10 and now sit at -10.5. The total which opened at 57 has steadily climbed to 60.5.
INJURY REPORT: Texas A&M: DB Victor Davis - out indefinitely (suspension). South Carolina: RB Mike Davis - probable Thursday (ribs), TE Rory Anderson - questionable Thursday (triceps), C Cody Waldrop - questionable Thursday (oblique), T Mike Matulis - doubtful Thursday (knee).
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Texas A&M (-12.5) - South Carolina (-20) + home field (-3) = South Carolina -10.5.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The question everyone's asking is how will the Gamecocks replace Jadeveon Clowney, but perhaps the biggest concern for Spurrier's squad is whether or not QB Dylan Thompson can step up in place of Connor Shaw. Thompson was inconsistent at best last season, throwing for 783 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs." - Covers Expert Jess Schule.
WHAT BOOKS SAY:
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2013: 9-4, 5-8 ATS): The Aggies led the SEC in scoring (44.2 ppg) and total offense (538.4 yards) for the second straight season, so the onus will be on Hill, who played sparingly as a freshman and threw for 183 yards on 16-of-22 over parts of four games. Senior Malcome Kennedy is the top returnee at wide receiver, but Ricky Seals-Jones and explosive freshman Speedy Noil are elite talents and will be counted on to replace NFL first-round pick Mike Evans, while Trey Williams, Tra Carson and Brandon Williams head a deep running back corps. Cornerback Deshazor Everett leads a defense that was singed for 151 points over the final four games last season and will hope for immediately production from freshman defensive end Myles Garrett, among the nation's top recruits.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (2013: 11-2, 7-6 ATS): The Gamecocks also have a change under center, with longtime backup Dylan Thompson poised to take the reins after backing up Connor Shaw the past three seasons. Although fifth-year senior Thompson is more of a pure passer compared to dual-threat Shaw, South Carolina is expected to rely heavily on a ground game featuring Mike Davis, a preseason first-team SEC selection who rumbled for 1,183 yards last season and will be running behind one of the top offensive lines in the conference. While replacing Clowney will be impossible, the Gamecocks also suffered other key losses on the defensive side and will need big seasons from nose tackle J.T. Surratt, cornerback Brison Williams and freshman linebacker Bryson Allen-Williams.
TRENDS:
* Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games.
* Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 7-2 in Aggies last nine conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Ganecocks last four conference games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 55 percent of the wagers are backing South Carolina at -10.5.
Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (-10.5, 60.5)
The post-Johnny Manziel era is set to get underway for No. 20 Texas A&M, which faces a brutal season-opening test at SEC rival and ninth-ranked South Carolina on Thursday. Even though the Aggies must replace the former Heisman Trophy winner, many will argue that the Gamecocks endured an even bigger loss than Manziel with the departure of all-world defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, the top overall pick in the NFL draft. It will mark the first-ever meeting between the schools.
South Carolina, which never has won an SEC championship, is coming off three consecutive 11-win seasons under legendary coach Steve Spurrier and was the preseason choice to win the East Division. Texas A&M was expected to struggle upon moving from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012 but, buoyed by the wondrous talents of Manziel, the Aggies went 20-6 in their first two seasons and capped each with a bowl victory. Sophomore Kenny Hill will be in the spotlight after narrowly beating out Kyle Allen as Manziel's successor.
TV: 6 p.m. ET, SEC Network.
LINE HISTORY: The Gamecocks opened as 11-point favorites, where bet down to -10 and now sit at -10.5. The total which opened at 57 has steadily climbed to 60.5.
INJURY REPORT: Texas A&M: DB Victor Davis - out indefinitely (suspension). South Carolina: RB Mike Davis - probable Thursday (ribs), TE Rory Anderson - questionable Thursday (triceps), C Cody Waldrop - questionable Thursday (oblique), T Mike Matulis - doubtful Thursday (knee).
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Texas A&M (-12.5) - South Carolina (-20) + home field (-3) = South Carolina -10.5.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The question everyone's asking is how will the Gamecocks replace Jadeveon Clowney, but perhaps the biggest concern for Spurrier's squad is whether or not QB Dylan Thompson can step up in place of Connor Shaw. Thompson was inconsistent at best last season, throwing for 783 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs." - Covers Expert Jess Schule.
WHAT BOOKS SAY:
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2013: 9-4, 5-8 ATS): The Aggies led the SEC in scoring (44.2 ppg) and total offense (538.4 yards) for the second straight season, so the onus will be on Hill, who played sparingly as a freshman and threw for 183 yards on 16-of-22 over parts of four games. Senior Malcome Kennedy is the top returnee at wide receiver, but Ricky Seals-Jones and explosive freshman Speedy Noil are elite talents and will be counted on to replace NFL first-round pick Mike Evans, while Trey Williams, Tra Carson and Brandon Williams head a deep running back corps. Cornerback Deshazor Everett leads a defense that was singed for 151 points over the final four games last season and will hope for immediately production from freshman defensive end Myles Garrett, among the nation's top recruits.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (2013: 11-2, 7-6 ATS): The Gamecocks also have a change under center, with longtime backup Dylan Thompson poised to take the reins after backing up Connor Shaw the past three seasons. Although fifth-year senior Thompson is more of a pure passer compared to dual-threat Shaw, South Carolina is expected to rely heavily on a ground game featuring Mike Davis, a preseason first-team SEC selection who rumbled for 1,183 yards last season and will be running behind one of the top offensive lines in the conference. While replacing Clowney will be impossible, the Gamecocks also suffered other key losses on the defensive side and will need big seasons from nose tackle J.T. Surratt, cornerback Brison Williams and freshman linebacker Bryson Allen-Williams.
TRENDS:
* Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games.
* Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 7-2 in Aggies last nine conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Ganecocks last four conference games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 55 percent of the wagers are backing South Carolina at -10.5.
Five college football teams on upset alert in Week 1
By KEVIN CAUSEY
Every year we see upsets during the first week of the season. Here are five games to keep on upset alert during the opening week of the college football season.
Portland State Vikings at Oregon State Beavers (-31)
If history is any indication, then Oregon State is in trouble in their opener. Last season, the Beavers lost to Eastern Washington 49-46. In 2011, they fell to Sacramento State 29-28. Portland State lost four games last season but did play Cal close (lost 37-30) and their biggest loss from 2013 was 28 points so even if they don't pull the upset, they could cover the spread.
Likelihood of upset: Small
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5)
With the exception of 2012, under Brian Kelly, the Irish have been bitten by the upset bug. In 2010 it was Navy and Tulsa. In 2011 it was USF. In 2013 it was Pitt. Notre Dame is in the midst of an internal investigation into academic misconduct and you have to wonder if their attention will be elsewhere when they face off with the defending Conference USA Champions.
Likelihood of upset: Medium
California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats (-10)
In 2013, Cal was flat out awful. Last year, Cal lost over 50 starters to injury, they broke in a new QB and they had a coaching change so they had to adjust to a change in schemes. On the flip side, Northwestern just found out that their top receiver, Christian Jones, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Both of these teams are coming off of very disappointing 2013 seasons and it was be an interesting game to watch.
Likelihood of upset: Medium
Utah State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
The Vols lost every player on their offensive and defensive line. They also just named Justin Worley their starting quarterback, which seems like a disappointment based on his past performance. Can talent at RB and WR overcome the question-marks the Vols have? Another big factor in this game will be Utah State's star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who will be returning from injury.
Likelihood of upset: XL
Youngstown State at Illinois (-10)
Tim Beckman's era at Illinois has been a huge disappointment through two years. The Illini have gone 6-18 overall and 1-15 in Big Ten play. In Illinois only game against an FCS opponent in 2013, they won by just eight points. Youngstown State went 8-4 last season and isn't a team to be taken lightly. Remember 2012 when the Penguins went to Pitt and came away with a 31-17 victory?
Likelihood of upset: Jumbo
By KEVIN CAUSEY
Every year we see upsets during the first week of the season. Here are five games to keep on upset alert during the opening week of the college football season.
Portland State Vikings at Oregon State Beavers (-31)
If history is any indication, then Oregon State is in trouble in their opener. Last season, the Beavers lost to Eastern Washington 49-46. In 2011, they fell to Sacramento State 29-28. Portland State lost four games last season but did play Cal close (lost 37-30) and their biggest loss from 2013 was 28 points so even if they don't pull the upset, they could cover the spread.
Likelihood of upset: Small
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5)
With the exception of 2012, under Brian Kelly, the Irish have been bitten by the upset bug. In 2010 it was Navy and Tulsa. In 2011 it was USF. In 2013 it was Pitt. Notre Dame is in the midst of an internal investigation into academic misconduct and you have to wonder if their attention will be elsewhere when they face off with the defending Conference USA Champions.
Likelihood of upset: Medium
California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats (-10)
In 2013, Cal was flat out awful. Last year, Cal lost over 50 starters to injury, they broke in a new QB and they had a coaching change so they had to adjust to a change in schemes. On the flip side, Northwestern just found out that their top receiver, Christian Jones, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Both of these teams are coming off of very disappointing 2013 seasons and it was be an interesting game to watch.
Likelihood of upset: Medium
Utah State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
The Vols lost every player on their offensive and defensive line. They also just named Justin Worley their starting quarterback, which seems like a disappointment based on his past performance. Can talent at RB and WR overcome the question-marks the Vols have? Another big factor in this game will be Utah State's star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who will be returning from injury.
Likelihood of upset: XL
Youngstown State at Illinois (-10)
Tim Beckman's era at Illinois has been a huge disappointment through two years. The Illini have gone 6-18 overall and 1-15 in Big Ten play. In Illinois only game against an FCS opponent in 2013, they won by just eight points. Youngstown State went 8-4 last season and isn't a team to be taken lightly. Remember 2012 when the Penguins went to Pitt and came away with a 31-17 victory?
Likelihood of upset: Jumbo
StatFox Super Situations
CFB | OLE MISS at BOISE ST
Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | TULANE at TULSA
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (TULANE) good rushing defense from last season - allowed 125 or less rushing yards/game
62-36 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.3% | 0.0 units )
CFB | PENN ST at UCF
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first two weeks of the season
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | OLE MISS at BOISE ST
Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | TULANE at TULSA
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (TULANE) good rushing defense from last season - allowed 125 or less rushing yards/game
62-36 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.3% | 0.0 units )
CFB | PENN ST at UCF
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first two weeks of the season
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
Texas A&M at South Carolina
By Joe Nelson
College football is back and the Thursday night schedule opens up with several big games. The SEC headlines the opening night slate with a matchup of two prominent programs as Texas A&M visits South Carolina. Mississippi and Vanderbilt are also in action for the SEC in later matchups on Thursday’s six-game slate.
Match-up: Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina (grass)
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2014
Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET – SEC Network
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None
The impact of Jonny Manziel at Texas A&M has been huge and it will be a great challenge for the Aggies to maintain its position among the elite teams in the SEC. While the Aggies did not win a championship in either of the past two seasons, Texas A&M went 20-6 with two bowl wins to wipe away mostly mediocre results in the past two decades. Most expected Texas A&M to struggle in the move to the SEC, but so far it has been a great success and the university is reaping the rewards in many ways, including another great recruiting class for Kevin Sumlin.
While Texas A&M will play a soft non-conference schedule in 2014, they draw one of the tougher overall schedules in the conference. There are no easy outs in the West division and the draw from the East features last year’s top two teams, with Missouri in November and this challenging opening game with South Carolina. The Aggies also have daunting travel with five of the first eight games of the season away from home and in addition to this visit to Columbia, the Aggies are playing on the road against both Alabama and Auburn this season.
Sophomore Kenny Hill has been named the starter for Texas A&M, beating out freshman Kyle Allen who many had projected to win the job. Hill did see the field last season, completing 16 passes while also rushing for 37 yards. He fits the bill as a dual-threat player that has some of the mobility that was so valuable for Manziel, and he is not much bigger than Manziel at just 6’1”.
Just as pressing as the loss at quarterback is, the loss of NFL draft pick Mike Evans who had monster numbers for the Aggies last season with nearly 1,400 receiving yards, while importantly bailing Manziel out on some of his wild scrambles. The Aggies have four receivers on the roster that had receptions last season, but the offense is very young at the skill positions. Even with the loss of several higher profile offensive linemen in recent years, the Aggies will still have an experienced unit that could be one of the best lines in the SEC, which should help the transition considerably.
While Manziel was the most talked about player at the NFL draft this spring, the #1 pick in the draft was South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While Clowney did not have huge statistics last season, he certainly took a lot of attention from opposing teams. South Carolina actually took a substantial step back defensively in its 2013 statistics compared with 2012, though it marked a third consecutive season that South Carolina has finished 11-2 with a bowl win over a Big Ten team under Steve Spurrier, now in his 10th season with the program. It will be interesting to see if South Carolina can maintain its strong defensive reputation with a lot of new players in key spots this season.
South Carolina also lost its starting quarterback from last season in Connor Shaw, who ironically is with Manziel on the Cleveland Browns roster, at least for the time being. Shaw had a great college career also playing as a dual-threat quarterback though injuries kept him from having as consistent success. Missing some time has allowed Dylan Thompson, now a senior in the starting role to gain plenty of experience. Thompson threw for 783 yards last season including starting two games and he also started a game in the 2012 season. Thompson is much more of a pocket passer than Shaw so the Gamecocks will lean on the running backs this season.
Mike Davis is the lead running back for South Carolina and he averaged 5.8 yards per carry last season en route to a nearly 1,200 yard season. Davis had an injury scare earlier this month and has missed some practice with a rib injury, but he is expected to be a full participant for the opener. It is a position where South Carolina has some depth so it will be a committee approach for most of the season and especially in the opener as Texas A&M allowed 222 yards per game on the ground last season.
The Aggies do have a lot of experience on defense, including most of the key players on the defensive line returning to action, but statistically Texas A&M was the worst rush defense in the SEC season in 2013. Expect the Aggies to attempt to bottle up the run in this game and force Thompson to make some throws, but the Gamecocks also possess a veteran receiving corps that lost only one key player from last season’s rotation.
South Carolina is undefeated at home the past two seasons with consecutive 7-0 campaigns in Columbia, but there have been a few close calls with three wins by seven or fewer points in that span, all coming against SEC opponents. Texas A&M is actually 7-2 on the road under Sumlin and the most famous win for the program in this era came in a pretty tough venue in Tuscaloosa. This will be the biggest underdog spread for the Aggies since that 29-24 win over Alabama in 2012. The Aggies were twice a road underdog last season but they came up short in both instances.
Line Movement: The line opened at -11 before dropping to 10 and climbing back to 10.5 at most outlets. The total has climbed from 57 to 58.
Last Meeting: This is the first ever meeting between Texas A&M and South Carolina
Texas A&M Historical Trends: This program has not performed well away from home going just 66-93-3 ATS in road games since 1980 and the more recent numbers are no better with a 25-45-1 ATS record since 1999. Texas A&M is just 2-6 the last three years as an underdog and 25-41-1 ATS as an underdog going back to 2000. Texas A&M is 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points going back to 1982.
South Carolina Historical Trends: South Carolina is 32-3 S/U and 21-13 ATS at home since 2009. Under Spurrier South Carolina is 8-1 S/U but just 5-4 ATS in home openers, winning each of the last seven home openers S/U with covers in five of the last six. Under Spurrier, South Carolina is 25-17-2 ATS as a home favorite, losing outright just three times in those 44 games.
There are five additional games on the Thursday night opening slate – here is a quick look at two of the other prominent games:
Mississippi vs. Boise State (ESPN)
Line: Mississippi -10, Over/Under 54
This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, one of two games this weekend in the building as Alabama and West Virginia will face off Saturday in Atlanta. The Broncos have played in a number of big national openers against high profile teams, featuring mixed results including an ugly loss last season against Washington. After eight impressive seasons in Boise, Chris Petersen left for the Washington opening as a new era opens. Last season, Boise State fell to 8-5 for its worst season in over a decade but that was incredibly inexperienced team. This year’s team should be better as one of the favorites in the Mountain West though this is a tough opening draw for Bryan Harsin, who takes over after just one season at Arkansas State. After a 2-10 season in 2011, Hugh Freeze has led two successful seasons for the Rebels with bowl wins. The next step is competing for a SEC title and there is a lot of experience on this team, even though the Rebels are often forgotten in the loaded SEC West. With veteran QB and nine starters back on a very talented defense, Ole Miss could be a sleeper in the West division and the SEC as a whole. Both teams have great recent records in neutral site games with Mississippi going 17-5-1 ATS since 1985 and Boise State going 10-3 ATS since 2000.
Rutgers vs. Washington State (FOX1)
Line: Washington State -8, Over/Under 61
This game is a neutral site game in Seattle at CenturyLink Field. In the opening game last season on the road, Washington State out-gained Auburn in a tough 31-24 loss. Little did anyone know that Auburn would wind up playing for a national championship at the end of the season. While there were several ugly losses along the way, Washington State wound up back in the postseason in just the second season for Mike Leach in Pullman, though the season ended with a stunning bowl loss.
The Cougars allowed 458 yards per game last season, but the offense returns quarterback Connor Halliday and nearly the entire receiving corps as this will again be a very productive offensive team. Washington State has lost by combined score of 150-64 in the last three Seattle games, but there will be much more of a home-field edge this time around given the long travel for Rutgers.
Rutgers is pegged to be one of the bottom teams in its first season in the Big Ten, but the schedule is a huge factor in the lack of optimism. This is an experienced team and Kyle Flood has done a nice job in two seasons as Rutgers has made back-to-back bowl trips, exceeding most expectations. The strength of the Knights has been stopping the run in recent seasons and that won’t be much of an issue in this matchup, but Rutgers does have veteran lines that should allow the team to compete in this game if they can cash in on offensive opportunities to keep up with the high scoring Cougars. Rutgers has been a great team to back as an underdog in the last decade, going 46-22-2 ATS when getting points since 2002. Washington State is just 17-24 ATS as a favorite since 2003 and the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in neutral site games since 2001.
By Joe Nelson
College football is back and the Thursday night schedule opens up with several big games. The SEC headlines the opening night slate with a matchup of two prominent programs as Texas A&M visits South Carolina. Mississippi and Vanderbilt are also in action for the SEC in later matchups on Thursday’s six-game slate.
Match-up: Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina (grass)
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2014
Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET – SEC Network
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None
The impact of Jonny Manziel at Texas A&M has been huge and it will be a great challenge for the Aggies to maintain its position among the elite teams in the SEC. While the Aggies did not win a championship in either of the past two seasons, Texas A&M went 20-6 with two bowl wins to wipe away mostly mediocre results in the past two decades. Most expected Texas A&M to struggle in the move to the SEC, but so far it has been a great success and the university is reaping the rewards in many ways, including another great recruiting class for Kevin Sumlin.
While Texas A&M will play a soft non-conference schedule in 2014, they draw one of the tougher overall schedules in the conference. There are no easy outs in the West division and the draw from the East features last year’s top two teams, with Missouri in November and this challenging opening game with South Carolina. The Aggies also have daunting travel with five of the first eight games of the season away from home and in addition to this visit to Columbia, the Aggies are playing on the road against both Alabama and Auburn this season.
Sophomore Kenny Hill has been named the starter for Texas A&M, beating out freshman Kyle Allen who many had projected to win the job. Hill did see the field last season, completing 16 passes while also rushing for 37 yards. He fits the bill as a dual-threat player that has some of the mobility that was so valuable for Manziel, and he is not much bigger than Manziel at just 6’1”.
Just as pressing as the loss at quarterback is, the loss of NFL draft pick Mike Evans who had monster numbers for the Aggies last season with nearly 1,400 receiving yards, while importantly bailing Manziel out on some of his wild scrambles. The Aggies have four receivers on the roster that had receptions last season, but the offense is very young at the skill positions. Even with the loss of several higher profile offensive linemen in recent years, the Aggies will still have an experienced unit that could be one of the best lines in the SEC, which should help the transition considerably.
While Manziel was the most talked about player at the NFL draft this spring, the #1 pick in the draft was South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While Clowney did not have huge statistics last season, he certainly took a lot of attention from opposing teams. South Carolina actually took a substantial step back defensively in its 2013 statistics compared with 2012, though it marked a third consecutive season that South Carolina has finished 11-2 with a bowl win over a Big Ten team under Steve Spurrier, now in his 10th season with the program. It will be interesting to see if South Carolina can maintain its strong defensive reputation with a lot of new players in key spots this season.
South Carolina also lost its starting quarterback from last season in Connor Shaw, who ironically is with Manziel on the Cleveland Browns roster, at least for the time being. Shaw had a great college career also playing as a dual-threat quarterback though injuries kept him from having as consistent success. Missing some time has allowed Dylan Thompson, now a senior in the starting role to gain plenty of experience. Thompson threw for 783 yards last season including starting two games and he also started a game in the 2012 season. Thompson is much more of a pocket passer than Shaw so the Gamecocks will lean on the running backs this season.
Mike Davis is the lead running back for South Carolina and he averaged 5.8 yards per carry last season en route to a nearly 1,200 yard season. Davis had an injury scare earlier this month and has missed some practice with a rib injury, but he is expected to be a full participant for the opener. It is a position where South Carolina has some depth so it will be a committee approach for most of the season and especially in the opener as Texas A&M allowed 222 yards per game on the ground last season.
The Aggies do have a lot of experience on defense, including most of the key players on the defensive line returning to action, but statistically Texas A&M was the worst rush defense in the SEC season in 2013. Expect the Aggies to attempt to bottle up the run in this game and force Thompson to make some throws, but the Gamecocks also possess a veteran receiving corps that lost only one key player from last season’s rotation.
South Carolina is undefeated at home the past two seasons with consecutive 7-0 campaigns in Columbia, but there have been a few close calls with three wins by seven or fewer points in that span, all coming against SEC opponents. Texas A&M is actually 7-2 on the road under Sumlin and the most famous win for the program in this era came in a pretty tough venue in Tuscaloosa. This will be the biggest underdog spread for the Aggies since that 29-24 win over Alabama in 2012. The Aggies were twice a road underdog last season but they came up short in both instances.
Line Movement: The line opened at -11 before dropping to 10 and climbing back to 10.5 at most outlets. The total has climbed from 57 to 58.
Last Meeting: This is the first ever meeting between Texas A&M and South Carolina
Texas A&M Historical Trends: This program has not performed well away from home going just 66-93-3 ATS in road games since 1980 and the more recent numbers are no better with a 25-45-1 ATS record since 1999. Texas A&M is just 2-6 the last three years as an underdog and 25-41-1 ATS as an underdog going back to 2000. Texas A&M is 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points going back to 1982.
South Carolina Historical Trends: South Carolina is 32-3 S/U and 21-13 ATS at home since 2009. Under Spurrier South Carolina is 8-1 S/U but just 5-4 ATS in home openers, winning each of the last seven home openers S/U with covers in five of the last six. Under Spurrier, South Carolina is 25-17-2 ATS as a home favorite, losing outright just three times in those 44 games.
There are five additional games on the Thursday night opening slate – here is a quick look at two of the other prominent games:
Mississippi vs. Boise State (ESPN)
Line: Mississippi -10, Over/Under 54
This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, one of two games this weekend in the building as Alabama and West Virginia will face off Saturday in Atlanta. The Broncos have played in a number of big national openers against high profile teams, featuring mixed results including an ugly loss last season against Washington. After eight impressive seasons in Boise, Chris Petersen left for the Washington opening as a new era opens. Last season, Boise State fell to 8-5 for its worst season in over a decade but that was incredibly inexperienced team. This year’s team should be better as one of the favorites in the Mountain West though this is a tough opening draw for Bryan Harsin, who takes over after just one season at Arkansas State. After a 2-10 season in 2011, Hugh Freeze has led two successful seasons for the Rebels with bowl wins. The next step is competing for a SEC title and there is a lot of experience on this team, even though the Rebels are often forgotten in the loaded SEC West. With veteran QB and nine starters back on a very talented defense, Ole Miss could be a sleeper in the West division and the SEC as a whole. Both teams have great recent records in neutral site games with Mississippi going 17-5-1 ATS since 1985 and Boise State going 10-3 ATS since 2000.
Rutgers vs. Washington State (FOX1)
Line: Washington State -8, Over/Under 61
This game is a neutral site game in Seattle at CenturyLink Field. In the opening game last season on the road, Washington State out-gained Auburn in a tough 31-24 loss. Little did anyone know that Auburn would wind up playing for a national championship at the end of the season. While there were several ugly losses along the way, Washington State wound up back in the postseason in just the second season for Mike Leach in Pullman, though the season ended with a stunning bowl loss.
The Cougars allowed 458 yards per game last season, but the offense returns quarterback Connor Halliday and nearly the entire receiving corps as this will again be a very productive offensive team. Washington State has lost by combined score of 150-64 in the last three Seattle games, but there will be much more of a home-field edge this time around given the long travel for Rutgers.
Rutgers is pegged to be one of the bottom teams in its first season in the Big Ten, but the schedule is a huge factor in the lack of optimism. This is an experienced team and Kyle Flood has done a nice job in two seasons as Rutgers has made back-to-back bowl trips, exceeding most expectations. The strength of the Knights has been stopping the run in recent seasons and that won’t be much of an issue in this matchup, but Rutgers does have veteran lines that should allow the team to compete in this game if they can cash in on offensive opportunities to keep up with the high scoring Cougars. Rutgers has been a great team to back as an underdog in the last decade, going 46-22-2 ATS when getting points since 2002. Washington State is just 17-24 ATS as a favorite since 2003 and the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in neutral site games since 2001.
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL REPORT
THURSDAY, AUGUST 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Preseason Week #4 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Pre-Season Betting News And Notes - Week #4
•League Fines Carroll, Seahawks $300K: The NFL has fined the Seattle Seahawks $300,000 for violating the collective bargaining agreement provision on offseason no-contact rules. ESPN reported that head coach Pete Carroll was fined $100,000 and the team $200,000. The Seahawks have been accused of allowing players to engage in "excessive levels of on-field contact" during the team's mandatory minicamp for veterans on June 16. In addition to the financial penalty, the team will lose two days of on-field two-a-days for veterans and will have its final day of minicamp limited. Players will be paid for the cancelled practice sessions. Carroll and the team also were fined in 2012 for a similar violation.
•Marino Joins Dolphins' Front Office: Dan Marino is coming home. The legendary Miami Dolphins quarterback has joined the team's front office. "It's official! I am excited about the future of this great organization!" Marino tweeted Sunday. NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport broke the news that Marino's official title is special advisor. The team later confirmed the position via a statement on its website. "Dan is and will always be an important part of the Miami Dolphins and we are excited to get him involved in a more formal way," Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said in the statement.
"Dan is unquestionably one of the greatest players in NFL history and his enthusiasm and passion for the Dolphins is inspiring to everyone here." "I'm grateful for the opportunity to serve in this role. I have always considered myself a Dolphin for life and I look forward to supporting the organization anyway I can," Marino said in the press release. This will be Marino's second foray with the Dolphins' front office. In 2004, Marino joined as senior vice president of football operations. However, he resigned just three weeks later, stating that the move was "not... in the best interests of either my family or the Dolphins."
•Broncos Acquire K McManus: In need of a kicker with Matt Prater suspended for the first four games of the regular season, the Denver Broncos acquired Brandon McManus from the New York Giants on Tuesday. The Broncos sent a conditional seventh-round draft pick to the Giants for the rights to McManus, an undrafted free agent from Temple. The 23-year-old McManus failed to beat out Josh Brown for a job with the Giants but was impressive in the preseason, kicking field goals of 46 and 47 yards. Of his 11 preseason kickoffs, 10 were touchbacks. The versatile McManus also can handle punting duties.
Mitch Ewald, a rookie from Indiana, was expected to get an audition for the job in the final preseason game on Thursday night, but was waived in conjunction with the McManus deal. Ewald was 0 of 1 on field goal attempts last week for the Broncos. If McManus does not make the final 53-player roster on Saturday during final cuts, the Broncos will not be required to compensate the Giants. Prater, one of the NFL's top kickers, was suspended for the first four games this season by the NFL because of a violation of the league's substance-abuse policy related to alcohol.
•Redskins Safety Meriweather To Appeal Suspension: Washington Redskins safety Brandon Meriweather will appeal his two-game suspension that the NFL levied for his latest helmet-to-helmet blow, a hit his coach called a "legitimate football play." The NFL's statement on the hit Saturday at Baltimore, when officials ruled Meriweather hit Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith "with forcible contact to the head and neck area... on a pass play" cited no attempt to make a form tackle or wrap up the offensive player. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden is hoping that the league will reduce or revoke the penalty. "Unfortunately, for Brandon, he's got a history of these types of events," Gruden told reporters. This is the sixth time Meriweather has been cited for a violation of player safety rules.
"Whether or not it was significant enough to warrant a suspension is what they decided.... He tried to lower his target, I thought. I thought it was a legitimate football play, but the NFL didn't see it that way." The Redskins contend that Meriweather could not avoid a helmet-to-helmet hit has both he and Smith lowered their heads as a pass sailed incomplete across the middle. Smith said via Twitter that he does not think Meriweather should be suspended. He did add his feeling might be different if he had been injured on the play. The league suspended Meriweather for two games last season for helmet-first hits. After an appeal, that suspension was reduced to one game.
•Dolphins Part Ways With QB Quinn: At least Brady Quinn has a job with Fox. The veteran quarterback, who signed with Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, announced via Twitter on Tuesday that he had been released. "It was short lived, but I enjoyed every second. Thank you Miami Dolphins for the opportunity to play the game I love again. Best of luck to all the players and coaches this season," Quinn wrote. The Dolphins made other roster moves to reach the 75-player limit. They designated defensive tackle A.J. Francis, running back Mike Gillislee and tight end Arthur Lynch as reserve/injured and waived wide receivers Armon Binns and Ryan Spadola, tight end Brett Brackett, cornerback Steven Clarke, defensive tackle Cory Grissom and center Tyler Larsen.
Lynch was a fifth-round draft pick this year. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round in 2013 but buried on the depth chart behind three other running backs. The 29-year-old Quinn had hoped to resurrect his career in Miami. The Dolphins were looking for some insurance for starter Ryan Tannehill and backup Matt Moore. Even though he hopes to keep playing, Quinn does have a television deal with Fox Sports. He also recently tried out with the New England Patriots. Quinn split last season between the New York Jets and the St. Louis Rams, but he did not throw a pass. He played in 10 games and made eight starts for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2012 compiling a 1-7 record. Counting his time from 2007-09 with the Cleveland Browns, he has a 4-16 career record as a starter. For his career, Quinn has a 53.8 percent completion rate, 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. The Notre Dame product was Cleveland's first-round pick (22nd overall) in 2007.
•Bengals Make Roster Moves: The Cincinnati Bengals trimmed their roster before the Tuesday deadline to reach the 75-player limit mandated by the NFL. Quarterback Matt Scott, wide receiver Jasper Collins, linebacker James Davidson and second-year tight end Kevin Brock were released by the team. Linebacker JK Schaffer and cornerback LaVelle Westbrooks were waived/injured. Schaffer, a second-year linebacker from the University of Cincinnati, has a head injury and Westbrooks, a seventh-round draft pick from Georgia Southern, is sidelined with a thumb injury.
If they clear waivers on Wednesday, both will go on the Bengals' reserve/injured list. Schaffer played in only one preseason game after taking two blows to the head and suffering a concussion. Last year, he saw action in nine games and had three tackles on defense and six on special teams. Davidson and Scott, who didn't play in the Bengals' 19-13 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the third preseason game, are rookies. The Bengals wrap up the preseason schedule at home on Thursday night against the Indianapolis Colts.
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NFL's Week #1 Biggest Underdogs
Systems Analyst William Stillman
The National Football League can see some huge spreads on a weekly basis. Last year the Jacksonville Jaguars were a 27-point underdog against the Denver Broncos and a 19-point dog against the Seattle Seahawks (they went 1-1 ATS). Lines of that magnitude, however, are rare, and big underdogs tend to stay in the 10- to 14-point range. Heading into the opening week of the 2014 season there is only one double-digit favorite, and most of the lines were set in the 2.5- to 3.5-point range, which should make handicapping Week #1 especially difficult for bettors.
There were a few other lines that may not be considered huge but could provide bettors with enough value to make a well-timed wager on an underdog plus the points. Let’s spend a few minutes and take a closer look at the biggest underdogs on the board for Week #1 and figure out which, if any, have the most value to wager on. Note: All lines come courtesy from Sportsbook.ag.
•Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Jaguars are the biggest dog of the week , but they should be better than last year’s horrendous four-win squad. The team drafted an excellent quarterback in Blake Bortles and surrounded him with a couple of very good wide receivers they picked up in the second and third rounds of the draft. The trouble for Jacksonville is they do not plan to play Bortles unless there is an emergency or Chad Henne falters, and it could take a season or two for its talent to begin paying dividends.
The Eagles, on the other hand, are always stocked with offensive talent and have the high-paced system under second-year head coach Chip Kelly to score points in a hurry. Last year Philadelphia ended the season with an 8-8 ATS record, but it also took Jacksonville 15 weeks to lose by less than 10 points. This matchup is not a great spot to wager on the underdog.
•Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) @ Denver Broncos
At first glance, betting on Andrew Luck and the Colts at +7.5 points feels like a great spread. In 2013 the team produced a 10-6 ATS record and was never out of a game as Luck continually lead his team to multiple fourth-quarter comebacks. The trouble with the line is that Denver is a machine built on accuracy and precision that is also being led by the greatest regular-season quarterback of all time. Denver ended the 2013 season with an 11-5 ATS record and had 10 double-digit victories last season.
Indianapolis did beat Denver, however, during a Week #7 home matchup and has the offensive firepower to at least keep up with the Broncos. It is never wise to underestimate Peyton Manning, but the Colts could very well win this game. This matchup feels like a great spot to wager on a live underdog getting more than a touchdown’s worth of points.
•Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Chicago Bears
In 2013 the Bills were one of the worst road ATS squads in the league. The team produced a 1-6 record as a road underdog and failed to cover those spreads by a whopping seven points. Buffalo will have more experience on offense with their second-year quarterback EJ Manuel behind center, but it will probably struggling to score points yet again.
Buffalo will also have the rumors of the team being sold hanging over its head, and even though the team will certainly cover spreads, wagering on them during the 2014 NFL season might not be the best idea. The Bears will be a team with playoff potential, while the Bills are looking at another 7-9 or 8-8 season at best. This is not a great situation to wager on the underdog.
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September Trends To Watch
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
With Week #4 of the National Football League preseason coming to a close on Thursday night, and with all 16 teams hitting the gridiron. That means it is now September, and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and sports junkies alike. Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of the year. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
Home Teams
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The NFC North's Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record (62.7%) in the opening month of the season, and will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and divisional foe Green Bay Packers (9/21).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 versus the number (26.0%) and they will face the Atlanta Falcons along with the Tennessee Titans in Week’s #2 and #3.
--New head coach Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in our Nation’s Capital as Washington sits 15-26 against the spread, just 36.5 percent when the Jacksonville Jaguars (9/14) and the New York Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.
--The Arizona Cardinals will have two shots to improve on their money-burning 13-22 against the spread record (37.1%) with the AFC West San Diego Chargers in the desert on the opening Monday night of the 2014 campaign and division rival San Francisco 13 days later.
Away Teams
•Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior Play Against road team at 14-29 ATS, 32.5%. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Raymond James Stadium versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9/14).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): This has been an unsolved mystery for years why the Pittsburgh Steelers have been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS (34.1%), and never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do on a short week at the Baltimore Ravens (9/11) and 10 days later at the Carolina Panthers.
--As good as Detroit has been at home during the month of September, that’s how bad they are away from the Motor City, just 37.2 percent at 16-27 versus the number dating back to 1971. Keep a watchful eye on them at the Carolina Panthers (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets.
Favorites
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The Seattle Seahawks, winners of Super Bowl XLVIII are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS (64.2%) and should be favored in all three confrontations against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 straight-up and 13-5 versus the number at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.
•Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS (29.1%) and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the 2014 campaign being anticipated as favorites.
--Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS, 30.4%) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. With all the information about Sam Bradford and his injured knee flying around the internet fast and furiously... and some of its conflicting, the Rams (12-24 ATS, 33.3%) are a Week #1 home favorite versus the Minnesota Vikings, but Week #3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): As mentioned above, the Cincinnati Bengals will have two home encounters and will be dishing out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role at 34.3 percent. You might have to look to the other side.
Underdogs
•Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable to say the least. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 versus the number 69.6%. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Cowboys could be underdogs the entire month facing San Francisco (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints travel to Texas on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.
•Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog, sitting at 9-20 against the spread, with just a thirty-one percent return on investment. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more Play Against opportunities for NFL bettors.
Division
•Good: The Kansas City Chiefs have annually fared well against AFC West rivals early on in the season, recording a 22-11 against the spread record (66.6%), and makes the trip to Mile High Stadium to take on Denver in Week #2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a Play Against squad in our Annual September Team Watch Article you are absolutely correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on September 7th with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
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Long-Shots To Win 2014 NFL MVP
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
Since 2000, the National Football League Most Valuable Player Award has been given to a quarterback 10 times, with running backs picking up the other three MVP nods. And, heading into the 2014 season, oddsmakers have given football bettors little reason to believe that’s going to change. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck all top the NFL MVP props board, but for those NFL offseason bettors looking for value, here are three live long shots to earn NFL’s top individual honor. Note: Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
•Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (+5,000)
There are rumblings in the Motor City that 2014 could finally be the year the Lions live up to expectations. Detroit is strong on both sides of the ball but Stafford headlines one of the most dynamic scoring attacks in the NFL, with Calvin Johnson (+2,000 to win MVP), Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate. If the Lions take the NFC North, we wouldn’t be surprised if Stafford’s name pops up in MVP chats – perhaps even splitting the honor with Megatron, like a Stockton-and-Malone dynamic.
•Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (+5,000)
The AFC North looks like it is up for grabs once again, and the Steelers come into 2014 with a bad taste in their mouths after missing out on the postseason the past two years. Roethlisberger watched his numbers skyrocket when Pittsburgh injected its offense with a no-huddle attack, throwing for 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns. Big Ben still needs better protection from his offensive line, which allowed 2.7 sacks per game in 2013. But with Pittsburgh adding some pop to the running game, thanks Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, defenses won’t be able to tee off with the pass rush like they did when the Steelers stumbled for 86.4 rushing yards per game – fifth lowest in 2013.
•Arian Foster, Houston Texans (+15,000)
If the Texans are going to rise from the dead in the AFC South, a lot of that burden will fall on the injury-prone shoulders of Arian Foster. Houston’s defense should take care of business, so the offense won’t need to score a ton of points. However, with Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the starting job, the Texans are hoping Foster can return to his form of the previous three seasons, when he rumbled for a combined 4,264 yards and 41 touchdowns. A postseason return for Houston and a healthy, productive year from Foster could make him a very live long shot for MVP.
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Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
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#101 ATLANTA @ #102 JACKSONVILLE
Line: Jaguars -4, Total: 39.5
Despite a very strong preseason from No. 3 overall pick Blake Bortles, the Jacksonville Jaguars will close their preseason against the Atlanta Falcons (6:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening by sticking to the original plan. Veteran quarterback Chad Henne will be the rebuilding Jaguars starter at the game's most important position during Week #1 of the regular season against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sept. 7.
Both have performed admirably in Jacksonville's practice games thus far with Bortles finishing 10-of-16 passing for 158 yards and a touchdown last week in a 13-12 setback at Detroit. Overall, the No. 1 pick who is regarded as the future in Jacksonville, is 28-of-44 for 435 yards and a touchdown with a passer rating of 103.9 in the preseason. Henne, meanwhile, was 9-of-14 for 70 yards against the Lions and is 25-of-38 in the preseason for 230 yards and one touchdown, good for a 90.9 passer rating.
If things continue to go to plan for the Jags, this might be the last time Bortles plays in 2014. "It could be," Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley admitted. "I haven't talked to him about it. I just say 'hey, continue to prepare. You're a play away. You have to have that mindset like that. Just keep working and sitting in those meetings, take good notes.' "But I don't know, we haven't talked that much about it. It's been mostly this game, capture it and perform well in practice."
The Falcons will be trying to close their preseason slate on an up note after falling to the Tennessee Titans, 24-17, at the Georgia Dome last week. Matt Ryan was as sharp as ever for Atlanta, completing 18-of-23 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. Julio Jones hauled in a 52-yard touchdown pass and Devin Hester brought in a 31-yard TD pass to highlight a four-reception, 56- yard effort for the Falcons. Jacquizz Rodgers carried the ball eight times for 33 yards and caught five passes for 31 yards in defeat.
These two clubs have met 10 times in the preseason, including each of the last four seasons. The Jaguars lead the all-time preseason series 7-3, including a 20-16 win at the Georgia Dome in 2013.
•KEY STATS
--ATLANTA is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was ATLANTA 17.8, OPPONENT 15.9.
--ATLANTA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off a home loss since 1993.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.0, OPPONENT 5.9.
--JACKSONVILLE is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 27.2, OPPONENT 15.6.
--JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 25.1, OPPONENT 25.0.
--JACKSONVILLE is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 12.3, OPPONENT 8.3.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 21 times, while the favorite covered the spread 11 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 16 times. 22 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 41 times, while the favorite covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 36 games went over first half total, while 19 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home teams of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games.
(30-5 since 1993.) (85.7%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-5)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.6
The average score in these games was: Team 23.5, Opponent 13.9 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
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#103 DETROIT @ #104 BUFFALO
Line: Bills -4.5, Total: 41
The Buffalo Bills will finish off an extended preseason slate by hosting the Detroit Lions (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. It's been a disappointing exhibition season overall for Buffalo, which fell to 1-3 last week when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into Orchard Park and built a big halftime lead behind touchdowns from Doug Martin and Mike Evans before holding on to top the Bills 27-14.
EJ Manuel played three quarters for the Bills and passed for 198 yards and a touchdown but also turned the ball over twice on a fumble and an interception. C.J. Spiller rushed for 36 yards and Fred Jackson and Mike Williams scored touchdowns in the loss as Buffalo played without rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins (ribs).
The Lions, on the other hand, are above water in the preseason after George Winn's 1-yard touchdown run with 7:12 remaining lifted Detroit over the Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-12, last week. Reggie Bush recorded an 86-yard TD run in the first quarter for the Lions, who won despite committing 15 penalties for 131 yards. Bush ended with two carries for 95 yards. Matthew Stafford, who played into the third quarter, completed 10-of-16 passes for 98 yards and an interception. Dan Orlovsky connected on 9-of-11 passes for 74 yards.
•KEY STATS
--DETROIT is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1993.
The average score was DETROIT 12.6, OPPONENT 13.3.
--DETROIT is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 19.4, OPPONENT 6.9.
--DETROIT is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 19.5 and 21 since 1993.
The average score was DETROIT 11.8, OPPONENT 13.1.
--BUFFALO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 15.9, OPPONENT 20.5.
--BUFFALO is 36-19 UNDER (+15.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 15.3, OPPONENT 18.4.
--BUFFALO is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 3.9, OPPONENT 15.3.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 16 times, while the favorite covered the spread 4 times. *EDGE against the spread =DETROIT. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 14 games went under the total, while 12 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 35 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 22 games went over first half total, while 17 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (BUFFALO) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half against a poor punt coverage team, allowing more than 12 yards per return, after scoring 14 points or less last game.
(39-13 since 1993.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.6, Opponent 12.8 (Total first half points scored = 22.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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#105 INDIANAPOLIS @ #106 CINCINNATI
Line: Bengals -2.5, Total: 41.5
he Indianapolis Colts will try to avoid a winless preseason when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. The Colts latest setback came at the hands of Drew Brees when the veteran passed for 128 yards and two touchdowns as New Orleans outlasted Indianapolis, 23-17. Andrew Luck and Chandler Harnish each produced a TD pass for the Colts, who dropped to 0-3 in practice games. Luck started and was 10-of-18 for 103 yards with a pick for the hosts. Coby Fleener and Josh Lenz reached the end zone on passes, while Dan Herron led all rushers with 68 yards on eight carries.
The Bengals got their first preseason win last week when Terence Newman returned an interception for a touchdown and Cincinnati kicked four field goals en route to a 19-13 preseason victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Andy Dalton completed 13-of-21 passes for 157 yards for Cincinnati, while Mohamed Sanu and A.J. Green both caught five passes for 70 and 53 yards, respectively, in the triumph. Mike Nugent and Quinn Sharp, who were competing for the starting kicker job, each made two field goals. The veteran Nugent kept his job, however, as Sharp was released earlier this week.
•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.1, OPPONENT 24.2.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.4, OPPONENT 26.1.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 24-7 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 10.3, OPPONENT 13.3.
--CINCINNATI is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.9, OPPONENT 9.1.
--CINCINNATI is 41-17 OVER (+22.3 Units) the 1rst half total in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 11.3, OPPONENT 11.9.
--CINCINNATI is 25-6 OVER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 12.6, OPPONENT 13.0.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 22 times, while the favorite covered the spread 13 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 9 games went over the total, while 7 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 35 times. *No EDGE. 12 games went over first half total, while 11 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry, against a poor punt coverage team - allowing more than 12 yards per return, off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(70-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.4%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 12.3 (Total first half points scored = 22.6)
The situation's record this season is: (11-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-18).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (128-83).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (297-191).
__________________________________________________
#107 ST LOUIS @ #108 MIAMI
Line: Dolphins -3, Total: 39
It's next man up in St. Louis. Days after losing veteran starting quarterback Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL, Shaun Hill is set to take over the St. Louis Rams as they visit south Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins in the preseason finale for both clubs. The Rams routed Cleveland, 33-14, last week despite losing Bradford early in the contest. Bradford went down on the game's opening drive after throwing an incomplete pass.
He was pressured and hit high by Browns defensive lineman Armonty Bryant. "It wasn't a high impact. ACL injuries, they're all different. This was just kind of a hyperextension and you just had impact come from the outside," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. "The knee was locked and something has to give, and unfortunately the ACL gave." The former No. 1 overall draft pick missed the Rams' final nine games last season after tearing the ACL in the same knee. He completed 4-of-9 passes for 77 yards before departing. "We lost our starting quarterback, but for Sam personally, it's devastating," Fisher said.
"The news was devastating to him as you can appreciate. Anyone that's gone through that procedure and the rehab understands, and to have it happen again within the calendar year is very, very difficult." Third-string QB Austin Davis saw significant playing time for the Rams and threw for 198 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard connection with Chris Givens. Hill, 34, last started a game for Detroit during the 2010 season. "We move forward as a football team. Shaun is our guy," Fisher added. "We brought him here. He's got experience. We've got all the confidence in the world in him."
The Dolphins got into the black this preseason last week when Orleans Darkwa scored on a 1-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter to give Miami a 25-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Darkwa finished with 70 rushing yards on six carries. Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill converted 13-of-21 passes for 119 yards and an interception, while Matt Moore went 12-for-19 for 172 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Mike Wallace hauled in six passes for 67 yards for Miami.
The Dolphins and Rams have split four previous preseason games.
•KEY STATS
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 23.9, OPPONENT 23.0.
--ST LOUIS is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) after a win by 14 or more points since 1993.
The average score was ST LOUIS 6.6, OPPONENT 15.9.
--ST LOUIS is 25-8 OVER (+16.2 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was ST LOUIS 10.2, OPPONENT 13.8.
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 14.4, OPPONENT 11.7.
--MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 15.8, OPPONENT 20.8.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 20 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 16 times. 20 games went under the total, while 13 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 31 times. *No EDGE. 39 games went over first half total, while 24 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (MIAMI) - outgaining opponent by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season, after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.
(51-21 since 1993.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 9.8 (Total first half points scored = 21.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-11).
_________________________________________________
#109 NY JETS @ #110 PHILADELPHIA
Line: Eagles -2.5, Total: 44.5
Thursday's final preseason game between the New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles had a chance to be more compelling than your average exhibition finale. With ex-Eagles starter Michael Vick set to back up Geno Smith with the Jets and former New York starter Mark Sanchez getting ready to serve as Nick Foles' caddy in Philly, things could have gotten interesting.
But, Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly pulled the plug on any of that by saying he would sit both Foles and Sanchez in favor of third-stringer Matt Barkley. Vick, meanwhile, will start for the Jets but don't blink. "Vick will start at quarterback, but don't expect him to play long," Jets coach Rex Ryan said. New York is trying to finish with its head above water in the preseason and build on the solid performances of Smith, who has completed 23-of-33 passes (69.7 percent) for 268 yards with one touchdown, and has also rushed for another score.
After the second-year player's performance in a setback to the Giants last week, in which he completed 9-of-14 passes for 137 yards with one touchdown with a 120.2 passer rating, Smith was officially named the starter for the regular season by Ryan. "He's done everything that we've asked," Ryan said. "It's a big deal," Smith added. "But nothing's going to change for me. I think I did some good things, but I've got work to do."
For the Eagles, Foles led the team to three first-half scores last week in a 31-21 win over Pittsburgh. The Pro-Bowl quarterback enters the 2014 regular season looking to build on last season's breakout performance in which he led the NFL with a 119.2 passer rating, the third-highest single-season mark in NFL history. "I feel like we're improving every week," Foles said of his team. "We have to keep moving forward."
•KEY STATS
--NY JETS are 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 19.6, OPPONENT 16.3.
--NY JETS are 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 6.6, OPPONENT 13.6.
--NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 6.9, OPPONENT 9.3.
--PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1993.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 18.2, OPPONENT 21.1.
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 27.2, OPPONENT 22.8.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 9 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 8 times, while the underdog won straight up 8 times. 1 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 29 times, while the favorite covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 6 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a terrible passing defense - allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse, after 2 straight games allowing 63% or higher completion pct (20 att).
(26-6 since 1993.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (25-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.2
The average score in these games was: Team 23.5, Opponent 15.1 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (46.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
________________________________________________
#111 KANSAS CITY @ #112 GREEN BAY
Line: Packers -3, Total: 42
The Kansas City Chiefs will wrap up their preseason slate by traveling to storied Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been one of the stars of the preseason, ranking second in the National Football League and leading all tight ends with 185 receiving yards. The second-year player has hauled in 10 receptions with two touchdowns in the practice games and is averaging 18.5 yards per catch.
Last week in a 30-12 loss against Minnesota, Kelce had a team-high 49 yards on four receptions and has led his club in receiving yards in all three preseason contests. "He's going to add another element to the tight end position," said Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith when discussing Kelce. "He'll stretch some defenses and do some things with the ball in his hands. It's exciting to see."
The Packers and star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, look ready for the regular season. Rodgers has completed 20-of-33 passes (60.6 percent) for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 116.6 passer rating in two appearances during the preseason. Last week in a win against Oakland, Rodgers threw for two scores and Pro Bowl running back Eddie Lacy, who was the 2013 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, rushed for one TD. "I think we're ready," said Rodgers. "It's been a good preseason. We've scored points and moved the ball."
This marks the fifth consecutive time that the Chiefs and Packers will close out the preseason against one another. Kansas City is 7-7-1 all-time in practice games versus the Packers.
•KEY STATS
--KANSAS CITY is 14-37 ATS (-26.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 15.3, OPPONENT 20.8.
--KANSAS CITY is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.0, OPPONENT 19.7.
--GREEN BAY is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 5.9, OPPONENT 15.3.
--GREEN BAY is 31-15 OVER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 11.7, OPPONENT 10.5.
--GREEN BAY is 35-18 OVER (+15.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 11.1, OPPONENT 11.1.
--GREEN BAY is 42-24 OVER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 9.5, OPPONENT 11.5.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 21 times, while the underdog covered the spread 21 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 25 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 6 games went over the total, while 6 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 45 times. *No EDGE. 14 games went over first half total, while 11 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (KANSAS CITY) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
________________________________________________
#113 NEW ENGLAND @ #114 NY GIANTS
Line: Giants -3, Total: 41
What has become a traditional preseason finale renews at MetLife Stadium (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday evening when the New York Giants try to complete a perfect preseason against the New England Patriots. This will be the 10th straight year that the Giants and Patriots have clashed in the final preseason game. The clubs have been frequent exhibition opponents, squaring off in the preseason openers for three straight years from 2001-03 before resuming the series in 2005 when they started to meet in the preseason finale.
The Giants lead the overall preseason rivalry with a 14-9 advantage in 23 previous meetings. For New England this marks the third straight week in which they will do battle against a team the Patriots have faced in a Super Bowl. having played Philadelphia (Super Bowl XXXIX and Carolina (Super Bowl XXXVIII) in the previous two preseason games. The Patriots and Giants met in Super Bowl XLII and Super Bowl XLVI.
New England improved to 2-1 in the preseason last week when Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes to Shane Vereen as New England routed the Panthers, 30-7. Brady completed 17-of-21 passes for 204 yards while playing into the third quarter. He connected with Vereen for scores of 40 and six yards. Second-round draft pick Jimmy Garoppolo, who is competing with Ryan Mallett for the backup quarterback job, hooked up with Taylor McCuller for an 11-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Stephen Gostkowski made three field goals, including a 60-yarder in the waning seconds of the first half.
The Giants, meanwhile, improved to 4-0 in an extended preseason for them when Ryan Nassib threw three touchdown passes and the Big Blue rallied past their co-tenants at MetLife, the New York Jets, 35-24. Nassib went 8-for-12 with 103 yards in relief of Eli Manning, who was under center for the Giants in the first half and completed 12-of-21 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. Rashad Jennings gained 67 yards on 13 carries for the G-Men while Victor Cruz picked up 61 yards through the air on four receptions.
•KEY STATS
--NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.4, OPPONENT 10.1.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.6, OPPONENT 4.3.
--NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off a home win by 10 points or more since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 12.9, OPPONENT 10.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 12 times, while the underdog covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 4 times. 17 games went over the total, while 9 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 28 times, while the underdog covered first half line 22 times. *No EDGE. 32 games went over first half total, while 9 games went under first half total. *Edge against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY GIANTS) - in non-conference games, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog, good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(47-17 since 1993.) (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.6, Opponent 10.9 (Total first half points scored = 22.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
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#115 WASHINGTON @ #116 TAMPA BAY
Line: Buccaneers -3, Total: 38.5
It might not be a full blown quarterback controversy just yet but Robert Griffin III better start playing a little better for the Washington Redskins, who will conclude their 2014 preseason slate (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday evening when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Some high-profile supporters of backup Kirk Cousins have started to get more vocal inside the Beltway as RG3 continues to struggle in the preseason.
Last Saturday, the Redskins suffered their first defeat in exhibition play, dropping a 23-17 decision to the Baltimore Ravens. The loss was the Redskins' first in preseason play since Aug. 18, 2012 at Chicago, a span of 736 days. Overall Washington has won eight of its last nine practice games. Against the Ravens, Griffin went just 5-of-8 for 20 yards with an interception, while Cousins threw for 122 yards on 14-of-20 efficiency with touchdowns to Santana Moss and Nick Williams.
"It's going to be a decision that (head coach) Jay Gruden is going to have to make," former 'Skins star and current Redskins Broadcast Network analyst Joe Theismann said. "Right now, Robert Griffin III is his quarterback. Now, if there was a quarterback competition, it wouldn't be a competition. Kirk Cousins would be the man I believe he would have to go to, because of the efficiency with which he has run (the offense)."
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, made a slash on the field last week and one off it this week. Tampa Bay built a big halftime lead behind touchdowns from Doug Martin and Mike Evans, and held on from there to beat the Buffalo Bills, 27-14, on Saturday. Josh McCown passed for 112 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the first half as the Buccaneers got their first win in three preseason games. Evans had three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown while Martin had 12 carries for 38 yard. Mike Glennon completed five of his seven passes for 44 yards in the second half.
The Bucs then pulled off a stunning trade with the New England Patriots, acquiring six-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins in exchange for tight end Tim Wright and a fourth-round pick in 2015. Mankins, a first-round selection of New England in 2005 who has started 130 games during an impressive nine-year run with the Patriots, fills an obvious need on a Buccaneers' offensive line that lost left guard Carl Nicks to a possible career-ending toe injury.
"We feel very fortunate just to have Logan," said Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht, who formerly worked for the Patriots as the team's director of pro personnel. "He's a very good player. [I'm] a first-hand witness of what he means to the locker room as well. Any time you have five consecutive Pro Bowls, All-Pro player - I mean, [that's] a lot of accolades. But he's a great person. He's going to be great for that room, he's going to be great for this locker room."
•KEY STATS
--WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1993.
The average score was WASHINGTON 15.0, OPPONENT 22.6.
--WASHINGTON is 8-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was WASHINGTON 7.2, OPPONENT 12.2.
--TAMPA BAY is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 7.6, OPPONENT 18.3.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 9 times, while the underdog covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 6 times. 21 games went under the total, while 10 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 21 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 24 games went under first half total, while 22 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, against a good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after gaining 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(36-6 since 1993.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 11.2 (Total first half points scored = 23.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
_______________________________________________
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#117 CAROLINA @ #118 PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers -5, Total: 37.5
The Carolina Panthers will close the preseason (7:30 PM EST) Thursday night in the Steel City against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Panthers still have plenty of questions that need to be answered after last week's 30-7 drubbing at the hands of New England. "We want to try to get a good look at a number of players to help us make the right roster decisions," said Carolina head coach Ron Rivera. "At the same time, we need to find consistency that was lacking against New England."
The Panthers will also have to make those decisions without starting quarterback Cam Newton, who suffered a fractured rib against the Patriots. Newton suffered the injury late in the second quarter when he scrambled and absorbed a hit from Patriots linebacker Jamie Collins. He remained in the game until the third quarter and finished 8-of-12 for 88 yards. Joe Webb spoiled New England's shutout bid with a late TD pass. Rivera remains optimistic that Newton, who also had offseason ankle surgery, will be able to play in the Sept. 7 opener at Tampa Bay.
The Steelers are also dealing with some issues after a 31-21 setback at Philadelphia. Ben Roethlisberger played into the third quarter against the Eagles and finished the game 15- for-24 for 157 yards, one touchdown and one interception for the Steelers, who are 1-2 on the preseason. A day after being pulled over for marijuana possession the Pittsburgh running back tandem of Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount played and combined for 16 carries and 55 yards, along with four catches for 17 yards.
The two ball carriers and a female friend were arrested after Ross Township Police smelled the scent of marijuana coming from a black Camaro that Bell was driving. The three jointly admitted to possessing the marijuana and Bell is facing charges of possessing and driving under the influence, while Blount has to deal with those same possession charges. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin ultimately decided against any suspension, passing potential punishment off to the league while leaning on the logic that missing a preseason game would be a "reward" to players like Bell and Blount, who aren't fighting for a roster spot.
The Steelers have been Carolina's most common preseason opponent. Pittsburgh leads the preseason series 10-5.
•KEY STATS
--CAROLINA is 8-23 against the 1rst half line (-17.3 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1993.
The average score was CAROLINA 8.1, OPPONENT 12.5.
--PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.8, OPPONENT 14.8.
--PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 16.1, OPPONENT 22.6.
--PITTSBURGH is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.4, OPPONENT 6.3.
--PITTSBURGH is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 16.0, OPPONENT 8.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 20 times, while the favorite covered the spread 19 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 25 times, while the underdog won straight up 14 times. 29 games went under the total, while 27 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 41 times, while the underdog covered first half line 37 times. *No EDGE. 60 games went over first half total, while 25 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CAROLINA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game).
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
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#119 MINNESOTA @ #120 TENNESSEE
Line: Titians -2, Total: 41.5
The Minnesota Vikings will try to complete a perfect preseason under first-year head coach Mike Zimmer when they visit Music City to take on the Tennessee Titans. The Vikings kept their unbeaten record alive last week with a convincing 30-12 road victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. They are one of four undefeated teams entering the final week of the preseason. In the win, quarterback Matt Cassel passed for 152 yards, including a 53-yard touchdown to Cordarrelle Patterson.
Rookie backup Teddy Bridgewater added a pair of touchdown passes to tight end Allen Reisner. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense intercepted the Chiefs three times. Zimmer then told his team Monday that the veteran Cassel will be their starting quarterback when they take the field for the season opener on Sept. 7 at St. Louis. "We will hold the quarterback position to the expectation that we hold all positions. If you perform, you'll play," said Zimmer.
Cassel, who began the 2013 season behind Christian Ponder with the Vikings, completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 1,807 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions in nine games (six starts) last season. The USC product completed 26-of-39 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and a 103.3 rating in the preseason. Bridgewater, the No. 32 overall pick from Louisville, connected on 26-of-40 passes for 266 yards with four touchdowns during the preseason. "I told Teddy that it was not anything he did or didn't do," said Zimmer.
The Titans were on the road last week for the second consecutive preseason game and, after falling behind by two touchdowns, they scored 21 unanswered points to defeat the Atlanta Falcons, 24-17, at the Georgia Dome. Bishop Sankey's three-yard touchdown run and two-point conversion provided the winning margin with less than six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Titans quarterback Jake Locker played with the rest of the starters into the second half. The fourth-year signal caller was 12-of-17 for 188 yards, a touchdown and a passer rating of 126.6. His 63-yard touchdown pass to receiver Nate Washington sparked the team's comeback.
The Vikings and Titans have played six times during the preseason with Minnesota holding a 5-1 series lead.
•KEY STATS
--MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was MINNESOTA 25.7, OPPONENT 18.9.
--TENNESSEE is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 11.7, OPPONENT 9.6.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a upset win as an underdog since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.7, OPPONENT 10.0.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.7, OPPONENT 10.0.
--TENNESSEE is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a road win sin
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.5, OPPONENT 9.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 11 times, while the favorite covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 10 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 8 times. 8 games went over the total, while 4 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 20 times, while the underdog covered first half line 18 times. *No EDGE. 13 games went over first half total, while 4 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(36-15 since 1993.) (70.6%, +19.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 10.8 (Total first half points scored = 22)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
________________________________________________
#121 SAN FRANCISCO @ #122 HOUSTON
Line: Texans -3, Total: 38.5
The Houston Texans will close out the preseason against the San Francisco 49ers (8:00 PM EST) Thursday at NRG Stadium. The Texans are coming off an 18-17 come-from-behind win at Denver last Saturday. Rookie quarterback Tom Savage led Houston on its game-winning drive, hitting tight end Ryan Griffin for a 31-yard touchdown with 59 seconds remaining and then connecting with receiver Travis Labhart on the ensuing 2- point conversion attempt.
Starting signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick went 10-for-17 for 80 yards and Jonathan Grimes scored a rushing touchdown in the win. The Texans' defense also continued its solid second-half play against Denver, holding its opponent scoreless for the second consecutive game. Houston hasn't allowed any points in the third quarter and has allowed just 12 points in the second half through three preseason games.
The 49ers, meanwhile, defeated San Diego, 21-7, on Sunday for their first win of the preseason. Vance McDonald caught a 6-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert with 46 seconds remaining in the first half for what turned out to be the game-winning score. Starting signal caller Colin Kaepernick was 6-of-12 for 59 yards while rookie second-round selection Carlos Hyde carried the ball six times for 38 yards. McDonald finished with three receptions for 29 yards and the touchdown for the 49ers.
Thursday's game will be just the third preseason meeting between the two teams. Houston defeated San Francisco 30-7 in the 2011 preseason and 20-9 in the 2012 preseason.
•KEY STAT
--SAN FRANCISCO is 7-18 against the 1rst half line (-12.8 Units) off a home win since 1993.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 8.2, OPPONENT 12.9.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 24 times, while the favorite covered the spread 17 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 26 times, while the underdog won straight up 18 times. 30 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 46 times, while the favorite covered first half line 39 times. *No EDGE. 40 games went under first half total, while 35 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SAN FRANCISCO) - terrible offensive team (<=265 YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (>=370 YPG), off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
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#123 CHICAGO @ #124 CLEVELAND
Line: Browns -5, Total: 42
With the quarterback decision in the rear-view mirror for now, the Cleveland Browns and new coach Mike Pettine will be aiming to avoid a winless preseason when they square off with the Chicago Bears at First-Energy Stadium. St. Louis routed Cleveland, 33-14, last week despite losing quarterback Sam Bradford to a torn ACL in his left knee. Bradford went down on the game's opening drive after throwing an incomplete pass. He was pressured and hit high by Browns defensive lineman Armonty Bryant.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick missed the Rams' final nine games last season after tearing the ACL in the same knee. Named the Browns' starting quarterback over rookie Johnny Manziel to begin the season, Brian Hoyer had only 84 yards passing while playing into the third quarter. Hoyer did throw a touchdown pass to Andrew Hawkins, but he was also intercepted once and lost a fumble on a sack. Manziel passed for 85 yards and ran for a touchdown, and was sacked by rookie defensive end Michael Sam.
The Bears, meanwhile, received a wake-up call from the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who trounced Chicago, 34-6, in the Pacific Northwest last week. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks were in midseason form as the signal-caller threw two touchdown passes and ran for another in leading Seattle to points on all five of his drives in the first half. The third-year pro completed 15- of-20 passes for 202 yards and connected with Jermaine Kearse and backup running back Christine Michael for scores.
Jay Cutler and Chicago's starters were decidedly less impressive in their only half of action. Cutler tossed for 157 yards on 12-of-20 passes, while Matt Forte was limited to 17 yards on three carries. The Bears had a touchdown reversed and another nullified by a Brandon Marshall offensive pass interference penalty late in the second quarter.
This contest marks the 11th straight year that Cleveland and Chicago will face off during the preseason finale. During that span, the series is even at 5-5, but the Browns hold an 18-11 all-time edge in the preseason.
•KEY STATS
--CHICAGO is 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.4, OPPONENT 24.8.
--CHICAGO is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 13.1, OPPONENT 12.0.
--CHICAGO is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 10.3, OPPONENT 13.4.
--CHICAGO is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 12.6, OPPONENT 13.2.
--CLEVELAND is 26-12 OVER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC North division opponents since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 11.8, OPPONENT 11.2.
--CLEVELAND is 15-2 OVER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 12.3, OPPONENT 11.2.
--CLEVELAND is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 12.4, OPPONENT 12.4.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 16 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *EDGE against the spread =CHICAGO. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 11 games went over the total, while 10 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 20 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 17 games went over first half total, while 6 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CHICAGO) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
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#125 BALTIMORE @ #126 NEW ORLEANS
Line: Saints -3, Total: 43.5
A pair of Super Bowl contenders hoping to finish off perfect preseason’s meet in the Bayou (8:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening when the New Orleans Saints host the Baltimore Ravens. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has completed 29-of-45 passes for 345 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 102.5 passer rating in three preseason games under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, the former head coach in Houston.
In last week's win over Washington, Flacco connected on 16-of-23 passes for 180 yards with one touchdown to the newly acquired Steve Smith, a 24- yarder. "I'm ready," said Flacco about the start of the regular season. "Everybody is ready for real live games. Get out there and go." Flacco's counterpart with the Saints, Drew Brees, has struggled with an oblique strain in August but saw his first action last week and the Pro Bowl quarterback was sharp.
He completed 9-of-15 passes for 128 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 127.2 passer rating as New Orleans improved to 3-0 with a 23-17 win in Indianapolis. "I feel like it was a progression throughout the week, just getting the feel and timing back," said Brees, who led two touchdown drives in his three series on the field. "I don't think I'm 100 percent yet, but I feel like the tempo and rhythm and those things are coming back."
•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games after a win by 6 or less points since 1993.
The average score was BALTIMORE 17.0, OPPONENT 8.6.
--NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 25.2, OPPONENT 20.2.
--NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 20.9, OPPONENT 17.9.
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-17 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a non-conference game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.6, OPPONENT 11.4.
--NEW ORLEANS is 31-16 OVER (+13.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1993.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.0, OPPONENT 11.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 12 times, while the favorite covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 13 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 5 games went under the total, while 3 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 27 times, while the underdog covered first half line 27 times. *No EDGE. 10 games went over first half total, while 2 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (NEW ORLEANS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(30-9 since 1993.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.4, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 22.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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#127 DENVER @ #128 DALLAS
Line: Broncos -2.5, Total: 43.5
The Dallas Cowboys will try to avoid a winless preseason when they host the reigning AFC Champion Denver Broncos (8:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. The Broncos are coming off a tough week, losing for the first time in exhibition play, a setback exacerbated by the latest concussion to star slot receiver Wes Welker, and finding out that star kicker Matt Prater will be suspended for the first month of the season for violating the NFL's substance- abuse policy.
Houston rookie Tom Savage's 31-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Griffin in the closing minute lifted the Texans to an 18-17 win over Denver last week, but the far bigger story stemming from the game was Welker, who was injured after taking a hit from Houston defensive back D.J. Swearinger late in the second quarter. It was his third concussion in the past 10 months. No timetable has been set for Welker's return and Broncos coach John Fox said the team would take it one day at a time.
"Our first priority is his safety and his well-being," Fox said earlier this week. "He's doing good and going through the protocol now, and he'll be out there when he's deemed healthy." Prater, meanwhile, was penalized for his second DUI issue and will not be eligible to return to the Broncos' active roster until Oct. 6, following the team's game against the Arizona Cardinals a day earlier. "I am definitely going to make some changes in my life: not drink at all or risk doing anything stupid like that," said Prater before Monday's practice.
"I need to keep myself out of certain situations where people are drinking." To replace Prater in the short-term Denver acquired former Temple University kicker Brandon McManus from the New York Giants in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick in the 2015 draft. McManus was set to be released by the Giants on Tuesday. He connected on both of his field goal attempts and recorded touchbacks on 10-of-11 kickoffs during the preseason with New York.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 0-3 in exhibition play after falling to the Miami Dolphins, 25-20, in south Florida last week. Tony Romo finished 10-for-18 for 87 yards and was sacked three times in the loss, while his backup Brandon Weeden was 5-of-9 for 77 yards and a TD LaRon Byrd. The preseason series between the Cowboys and the Broncos is tied at seven games apiece.
•KEY STATS
--DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 27.3, OPPONENT 15.8.
--DENVER is 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 24.9, OPPONENT 12.4.
--DENVER is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 24.1, OPPONENT 11.3.
--DENVER is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 8.9, OPPONENT 13.9.
--DALLAS is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 14.6, OPPONENT 18.3.
--DALLAS is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 11.7, OPPONENT 10.9.
--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 12.8, OPPONENT 12.7.
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 15.9, OPPONENT 10.0.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 11 times, while the underdog covered the spread 3 times. *EDGE against the spread =DENVER. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 1 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 15 times, while the underdog covered first half line 3 times. *EDGE against first half line =DENVER. 3 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DALLAS) - with a poor defense - allowing 335 or more total yards/game, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game.
(32-9 since 1993.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.8, Opponent 9.8 (Total first half points scored = 22.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
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#129 SEATTLE @ #130 OAKLAND
Line: Seahawks -5, Total: 38.5
The Seattle Seahawks are gearing up for a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions and will travel to Oakland for their final dress rehearsal in the 2014 preseason. Over the past two games, the Seahawks first-team offense, led by third-year quarterback Russell Wilson, has been nearly unstoppable. A week after racking up 260 yards and 24 points in the first half against San Diego, Seattle gained 250 yards and scored 31 points last week versus Chicago.
The Seahawks scored touchdowns on their first four possessions against the Bears and Wilson has a string of nine consecutive scoring drives over the past two games. "The entire offensive group is just executing at a good clip right now," said Seattle head coach Pete Carroll. "Russell is really committed to what is happening. We're hitting a pretty good clip right now. Hopefully we can keep it going."
Things haven't gone as smoothly for the Raiders, who made significant personnel changes in the offseason. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew, one of those additions, had a 40-yard touchdown run last week, and wide receiver Brice Butler added two touchdown receptions in a loss in Green Bay last week. "I think we're ready to take a jump," veteran defensive back Charles Woodson said of his team. "I feel really good about what we did (in Week 3). And I'm very confident that we'll get better."
Seattle owns a significant 9-3 edge in its previous preseason bouts against the Raiders.
•KEY STATS
--SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.1, OPPONENT 9.5.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.6, OPPONENT 10.4.
--SEATTLE is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 22.8, OPPONENT 16.2.
--SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 21 or more points since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.4, OPPONENT 15.3.
--SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.1, OPPONENT 17.1.
--OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
The average score was OAKLAND 16.6, OPPONENT 19.9.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 14 times, while the underdog covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 24 games went under the total, while 23 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 21 times, while the underdog covered first half line 10 times. *No EDGE. 43 games went over first half total, while 24 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Any team (SEATTLE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games, in non-conference games, off 2 consecutive home wins.
(32-11 since 1993.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average score in these games was: Team 20.3, Opponent 17.4 (Average point differential = +3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (41.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-9).
________________________________________________
#131 ARIZONA @ #132 SAN DIEGO
Line: Chargers -3, Total: 39
The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Diego this week to face the Chargers in a preseason finale for both clubs that should be even more vanilla than most. That's because the two teams will meet again 11 days later when the Chargers visit Arizona for a Monday Night matchup in Week #1 of the regular season. Last week, the Cardinals dropped a 19-13 decision to the Cincinnati Bengals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona's defense did not allow a touchdown in the game and rookie WR John Brown provided the biggest offensive highlight with a diving 30-yard TD reception late in the third quarter,
Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton continued his solid preseason run, completing 10-of-13 passes for 108 yards and a TD in leading Arizona to 10 points in his three second-half series. Stanton has a 125.0 passer rating in the preseason and has thrown a TD in all three games. The Cards' defense was led by the team's 2014 first-round pick, safety Deone Bucannon, who was credited with a game-high seven tackles as Arizona fell to 1-2 in practice action.
San Diego is also 1-2 in the preseason, coming off a 21-7 loss on Sunday to the 49ers in San Francisco. Quarterback Philip Rivers only played the first quarter in that one and was very sharp, hitting 9-of-10 passes for 85 yards and a TD to star tight end Antonio Gates. This contest marks the first time since 2003 that the Cardinals will be visiting San Diego for preseason play. When the two teams rematch in Week 1, it will mark the Chargers first-ever regular season visit to University of Phoenix Stadium.
•KEY STATS
--SAN DIEGO is 25-8 OVER (+16.2 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 19.4, OPPONENT 23.2.
--SAN DIEGO is 38-17 OVER (+19.3 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.3, OPPONENT 11.1.
--SAN DIEGO is 24-9 OVER (+14.1 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.4, OPPONENT 12.5.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 19 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 15 times. 18 games went under the total, while 17 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 39 times, while the favorite covered first half line 30 times. *No EDGE. 37 games went over first half total, while 22 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (ARIZONA) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(33-9 since 1993.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.8, Opponent 11.3 (Total first half points scored = 22.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
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THURSDAY, AUGUST 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Preseason Week #4 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Pre-Season Betting News And Notes - Week #4
•League Fines Carroll, Seahawks $300K: The NFL has fined the Seattle Seahawks $300,000 for violating the collective bargaining agreement provision on offseason no-contact rules. ESPN reported that head coach Pete Carroll was fined $100,000 and the team $200,000. The Seahawks have been accused of allowing players to engage in "excessive levels of on-field contact" during the team's mandatory minicamp for veterans on June 16. In addition to the financial penalty, the team will lose two days of on-field two-a-days for veterans and will have its final day of minicamp limited. Players will be paid for the cancelled practice sessions. Carroll and the team also were fined in 2012 for a similar violation.
•Marino Joins Dolphins' Front Office: Dan Marino is coming home. The legendary Miami Dolphins quarterback has joined the team's front office. "It's official! I am excited about the future of this great organization!" Marino tweeted Sunday. NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport broke the news that Marino's official title is special advisor. The team later confirmed the position via a statement on its website. "Dan is and will always be an important part of the Miami Dolphins and we are excited to get him involved in a more formal way," Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said in the statement.
"Dan is unquestionably one of the greatest players in NFL history and his enthusiasm and passion for the Dolphins is inspiring to everyone here." "I'm grateful for the opportunity to serve in this role. I have always considered myself a Dolphin for life and I look forward to supporting the organization anyway I can," Marino said in the press release. This will be Marino's second foray with the Dolphins' front office. In 2004, Marino joined as senior vice president of football operations. However, he resigned just three weeks later, stating that the move was "not... in the best interests of either my family or the Dolphins."
•Broncos Acquire K McManus: In need of a kicker with Matt Prater suspended for the first four games of the regular season, the Denver Broncos acquired Brandon McManus from the New York Giants on Tuesday. The Broncos sent a conditional seventh-round draft pick to the Giants for the rights to McManus, an undrafted free agent from Temple. The 23-year-old McManus failed to beat out Josh Brown for a job with the Giants but was impressive in the preseason, kicking field goals of 46 and 47 yards. Of his 11 preseason kickoffs, 10 were touchbacks. The versatile McManus also can handle punting duties.
Mitch Ewald, a rookie from Indiana, was expected to get an audition for the job in the final preseason game on Thursday night, but was waived in conjunction with the McManus deal. Ewald was 0 of 1 on field goal attempts last week for the Broncos. If McManus does not make the final 53-player roster on Saturday during final cuts, the Broncos will not be required to compensate the Giants. Prater, one of the NFL's top kickers, was suspended for the first four games this season by the NFL because of a violation of the league's substance-abuse policy related to alcohol.
•Redskins Safety Meriweather To Appeal Suspension: Washington Redskins safety Brandon Meriweather will appeal his two-game suspension that the NFL levied for his latest helmet-to-helmet blow, a hit his coach called a "legitimate football play." The NFL's statement on the hit Saturday at Baltimore, when officials ruled Meriweather hit Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith "with forcible contact to the head and neck area... on a pass play" cited no attempt to make a form tackle or wrap up the offensive player. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden is hoping that the league will reduce or revoke the penalty. "Unfortunately, for Brandon, he's got a history of these types of events," Gruden told reporters. This is the sixth time Meriweather has been cited for a violation of player safety rules.
"Whether or not it was significant enough to warrant a suspension is what they decided.... He tried to lower his target, I thought. I thought it was a legitimate football play, but the NFL didn't see it that way." The Redskins contend that Meriweather could not avoid a helmet-to-helmet hit has both he and Smith lowered their heads as a pass sailed incomplete across the middle. Smith said via Twitter that he does not think Meriweather should be suspended. He did add his feeling might be different if he had been injured on the play. The league suspended Meriweather for two games last season for helmet-first hits. After an appeal, that suspension was reduced to one game.
•Dolphins Part Ways With QB Quinn: At least Brady Quinn has a job with Fox. The veteran quarterback, who signed with Miami Dolphins two weeks ago, announced via Twitter on Tuesday that he had been released. "It was short lived, but I enjoyed every second. Thank you Miami Dolphins for the opportunity to play the game I love again. Best of luck to all the players and coaches this season," Quinn wrote. The Dolphins made other roster moves to reach the 75-player limit. They designated defensive tackle A.J. Francis, running back Mike Gillislee and tight end Arthur Lynch as reserve/injured and waived wide receivers Armon Binns and Ryan Spadola, tight end Brett Brackett, cornerback Steven Clarke, defensive tackle Cory Grissom and center Tyler Larsen.
Lynch was a fifth-round draft pick this year. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round in 2013 but buried on the depth chart behind three other running backs. The 29-year-old Quinn had hoped to resurrect his career in Miami. The Dolphins were looking for some insurance for starter Ryan Tannehill and backup Matt Moore. Even though he hopes to keep playing, Quinn does have a television deal with Fox Sports. He also recently tried out with the New England Patriots. Quinn split last season between the New York Jets and the St. Louis Rams, but he did not throw a pass. He played in 10 games and made eight starts for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2012 compiling a 1-7 record. Counting his time from 2007-09 with the Cleveland Browns, he has a 4-16 career record as a starter. For his career, Quinn has a 53.8 percent completion rate, 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. The Notre Dame product was Cleveland's first-round pick (22nd overall) in 2007.
•Bengals Make Roster Moves: The Cincinnati Bengals trimmed their roster before the Tuesday deadline to reach the 75-player limit mandated by the NFL. Quarterback Matt Scott, wide receiver Jasper Collins, linebacker James Davidson and second-year tight end Kevin Brock were released by the team. Linebacker JK Schaffer and cornerback LaVelle Westbrooks were waived/injured. Schaffer, a second-year linebacker from the University of Cincinnati, has a head injury and Westbrooks, a seventh-round draft pick from Georgia Southern, is sidelined with a thumb injury.
If they clear waivers on Wednesday, both will go on the Bengals' reserve/injured list. Schaffer played in only one preseason game after taking two blows to the head and suffering a concussion. Last year, he saw action in nine games and had three tackles on defense and six on special teams. Davidson and Scott, who didn't play in the Bengals' 19-13 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the third preseason game, are rookies. The Bengals wrap up the preseason schedule at home on Thursday night against the Indianapolis Colts.
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NFL's Week #1 Biggest Underdogs
Systems Analyst William Stillman
The National Football League can see some huge spreads on a weekly basis. Last year the Jacksonville Jaguars were a 27-point underdog against the Denver Broncos and a 19-point dog against the Seattle Seahawks (they went 1-1 ATS). Lines of that magnitude, however, are rare, and big underdogs tend to stay in the 10- to 14-point range. Heading into the opening week of the 2014 season there is only one double-digit favorite, and most of the lines were set in the 2.5- to 3.5-point range, which should make handicapping Week #1 especially difficult for bettors.
There were a few other lines that may not be considered huge but could provide bettors with enough value to make a well-timed wager on an underdog plus the points. Let’s spend a few minutes and take a closer look at the biggest underdogs on the board for Week #1 and figure out which, if any, have the most value to wager on. Note: All lines come courtesy from Sportsbook.ag.
•Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Jaguars are the biggest dog of the week , but they should be better than last year’s horrendous four-win squad. The team drafted an excellent quarterback in Blake Bortles and surrounded him with a couple of very good wide receivers they picked up in the second and third rounds of the draft. The trouble for Jacksonville is they do not plan to play Bortles unless there is an emergency or Chad Henne falters, and it could take a season or two for its talent to begin paying dividends.
The Eagles, on the other hand, are always stocked with offensive talent and have the high-paced system under second-year head coach Chip Kelly to score points in a hurry. Last year Philadelphia ended the season with an 8-8 ATS record, but it also took Jacksonville 15 weeks to lose by less than 10 points. This matchup is not a great spot to wager on the underdog.
•Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) @ Denver Broncos
At first glance, betting on Andrew Luck and the Colts at +7.5 points feels like a great spread. In 2013 the team produced a 10-6 ATS record and was never out of a game as Luck continually lead his team to multiple fourth-quarter comebacks. The trouble with the line is that Denver is a machine built on accuracy and precision that is also being led by the greatest regular-season quarterback of all time. Denver ended the 2013 season with an 11-5 ATS record and had 10 double-digit victories last season.
Indianapolis did beat Denver, however, during a Week #7 home matchup and has the offensive firepower to at least keep up with the Broncos. It is never wise to underestimate Peyton Manning, but the Colts could very well win this game. This matchup feels like a great spot to wager on a live underdog getting more than a touchdown’s worth of points.
•Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Chicago Bears
In 2013 the Bills were one of the worst road ATS squads in the league. The team produced a 1-6 record as a road underdog and failed to cover those spreads by a whopping seven points. Buffalo will have more experience on offense with their second-year quarterback EJ Manuel behind center, but it will probably struggling to score points yet again.
Buffalo will also have the rumors of the team being sold hanging over its head, and even though the team will certainly cover spreads, wagering on them during the 2014 NFL season might not be the best idea. The Bears will be a team with playoff potential, while the Bills are looking at another 7-9 or 8-8 season at best. This is not a great situation to wager on the underdog.
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September Trends To Watch
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
With Week #4 of the National Football League preseason coming to a close on Thursday night, and with all 16 teams hitting the gridiron. That means it is now September, and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and sports junkies alike. Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of the year. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
Home Teams
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The NFC North's Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record (62.7%) in the opening month of the season, and will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and divisional foe Green Bay Packers (9/21).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 versus the number (26.0%) and they will face the Atlanta Falcons along with the Tennessee Titans in Week’s #2 and #3.
--New head coach Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in our Nation’s Capital as Washington sits 15-26 against the spread, just 36.5 percent when the Jacksonville Jaguars (9/14) and the New York Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.
--The Arizona Cardinals will have two shots to improve on their money-burning 13-22 against the spread record (37.1%) with the AFC West San Diego Chargers in the desert on the opening Monday night of the 2014 campaign and division rival San Francisco 13 days later.
Away Teams
•Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior Play Against road team at 14-29 ATS, 32.5%. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Raymond James Stadium versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9/14).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): This has been an unsolved mystery for years why the Pittsburgh Steelers have been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS (34.1%), and never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do on a short week at the Baltimore Ravens (9/11) and 10 days later at the Carolina Panthers.
--As good as Detroit has been at home during the month of September, that’s how bad they are away from the Motor City, just 37.2 percent at 16-27 versus the number dating back to 1971. Keep a watchful eye on them at the Carolina Panthers (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets.
Favorites
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The Seattle Seahawks, winners of Super Bowl XLVIII are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS (64.2%) and should be favored in all three confrontations against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 straight-up and 13-5 versus the number at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.
•Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS (29.1%) and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the 2014 campaign being anticipated as favorites.
--Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS, 30.4%) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. With all the information about Sam Bradford and his injured knee flying around the internet fast and furiously... and some of its conflicting, the Rams (12-24 ATS, 33.3%) are a Week #1 home favorite versus the Minnesota Vikings, but Week #3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): As mentioned above, the Cincinnati Bengals will have two home encounters and will be dishing out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role at 34.3 percent. You might have to look to the other side.
Underdogs
•Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable to say the least. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 versus the number 69.6%. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Cowboys could be underdogs the entire month facing San Francisco (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints travel to Texas on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.
•Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog, sitting at 9-20 against the spread, with just a thirty-one percent return on investment. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more Play Against opportunities for NFL bettors.
Division
•Good: The Kansas City Chiefs have annually fared well against AFC West rivals early on in the season, recording a 22-11 against the spread record (66.6%), and makes the trip to Mile High Stadium to take on Denver in Week #2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a Play Against squad in our Annual September Team Watch Article you are absolutely correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on September 7th with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
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Long-Shots To Win 2014 NFL MVP
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
Since 2000, the National Football League Most Valuable Player Award has been given to a quarterback 10 times, with running backs picking up the other three MVP nods. And, heading into the 2014 season, oddsmakers have given football bettors little reason to believe that’s going to change. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck all top the NFL MVP props board, but for those NFL offseason bettors looking for value, here are three live long shots to earn NFL’s top individual honor. Note: Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
•Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (+5,000)
There are rumblings in the Motor City that 2014 could finally be the year the Lions live up to expectations. Detroit is strong on both sides of the ball but Stafford headlines one of the most dynamic scoring attacks in the NFL, with Calvin Johnson (+2,000 to win MVP), Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate. If the Lions take the NFC North, we wouldn’t be surprised if Stafford’s name pops up in MVP chats – perhaps even splitting the honor with Megatron, like a Stockton-and-Malone dynamic.
•Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (+5,000)
The AFC North looks like it is up for grabs once again, and the Steelers come into 2014 with a bad taste in their mouths after missing out on the postseason the past two years. Roethlisberger watched his numbers skyrocket when Pittsburgh injected its offense with a no-huddle attack, throwing for 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns. Big Ben still needs better protection from his offensive line, which allowed 2.7 sacks per game in 2013. But with Pittsburgh adding some pop to the running game, thanks Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, defenses won’t be able to tee off with the pass rush like they did when the Steelers stumbled for 86.4 rushing yards per game – fifth lowest in 2013.
•Arian Foster, Houston Texans (+15,000)
If the Texans are going to rise from the dead in the AFC South, a lot of that burden will fall on the injury-prone shoulders of Arian Foster. Houston’s defense should take care of business, so the offense won’t need to score a ton of points. However, with Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the starting job, the Texans are hoping Foster can return to his form of the previous three seasons, when he rumbled for a combined 4,264 yards and 41 touchdowns. A postseason return for Houston and a healthy, productive year from Foster could make him a very live long shot for MVP.
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Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
Both the NFL and NCAAF regular seasons are right around the corner. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"
Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.
"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
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#101 ATLANTA @ #102 JACKSONVILLE
Line: Jaguars -4, Total: 39.5
Despite a very strong preseason from No. 3 overall pick Blake Bortles, the Jacksonville Jaguars will close their preseason against the Atlanta Falcons (6:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening by sticking to the original plan. Veteran quarterback Chad Henne will be the rebuilding Jaguars starter at the game's most important position during Week #1 of the regular season against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sept. 7.
Both have performed admirably in Jacksonville's practice games thus far with Bortles finishing 10-of-16 passing for 158 yards and a touchdown last week in a 13-12 setback at Detroit. Overall, the No. 1 pick who is regarded as the future in Jacksonville, is 28-of-44 for 435 yards and a touchdown with a passer rating of 103.9 in the preseason. Henne, meanwhile, was 9-of-14 for 70 yards against the Lions and is 25-of-38 in the preseason for 230 yards and one touchdown, good for a 90.9 passer rating.
If things continue to go to plan for the Jags, this might be the last time Bortles plays in 2014. "It could be," Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley admitted. "I haven't talked to him about it. I just say 'hey, continue to prepare. You're a play away. You have to have that mindset like that. Just keep working and sitting in those meetings, take good notes.' "But I don't know, we haven't talked that much about it. It's been mostly this game, capture it and perform well in practice."
The Falcons will be trying to close their preseason slate on an up note after falling to the Tennessee Titans, 24-17, at the Georgia Dome last week. Matt Ryan was as sharp as ever for Atlanta, completing 18-of-23 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. Julio Jones hauled in a 52-yard touchdown pass and Devin Hester brought in a 31-yard TD pass to highlight a four-reception, 56- yard effort for the Falcons. Jacquizz Rodgers carried the ball eight times for 33 yards and caught five passes for 31 yards in defeat.
These two clubs have met 10 times in the preseason, including each of the last four seasons. The Jaguars lead the all-time preseason series 7-3, including a 20-16 win at the Georgia Dome in 2013.
•KEY STATS
--ATLANTA is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was ATLANTA 17.8, OPPONENT 15.9.
--ATLANTA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off a home loss since 1993.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.0, OPPONENT 5.9.
--JACKSONVILLE is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 27.2, OPPONENT 15.6.
--JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 25.1, OPPONENT 25.0.
--JACKSONVILLE is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 12.3, OPPONENT 8.3.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 21 times, while the favorite covered the spread 11 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 16 times. 22 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 41 times, while the favorite covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 36 games went over first half total, while 19 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home teams of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games.
(30-5 since 1993.) (85.7%, +24.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-5)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.6
The average score in these games was: Team 23.5, Opponent 13.9 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
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#103 DETROIT @ #104 BUFFALO
Line: Bills -4.5, Total: 41
The Buffalo Bills will finish off an extended preseason slate by hosting the Detroit Lions (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. It's been a disappointing exhibition season overall for Buffalo, which fell to 1-3 last week when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into Orchard Park and built a big halftime lead behind touchdowns from Doug Martin and Mike Evans before holding on to top the Bills 27-14.
EJ Manuel played three quarters for the Bills and passed for 198 yards and a touchdown but also turned the ball over twice on a fumble and an interception. C.J. Spiller rushed for 36 yards and Fred Jackson and Mike Williams scored touchdowns in the loss as Buffalo played without rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins (ribs).
The Lions, on the other hand, are above water in the preseason after George Winn's 1-yard touchdown run with 7:12 remaining lifted Detroit over the Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-12, last week. Reggie Bush recorded an 86-yard TD run in the first quarter for the Lions, who won despite committing 15 penalties for 131 yards. Bush ended with two carries for 95 yards. Matthew Stafford, who played into the third quarter, completed 10-of-16 passes for 98 yards and an interception. Dan Orlovsky connected on 9-of-11 passes for 74 yards.
•KEY STATS
--DETROIT is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1993.
The average score was DETROIT 12.6, OPPONENT 13.3.
--DETROIT is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 19.4, OPPONENT 6.9.
--DETROIT is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 19.5 and 21 since 1993.
The average score was DETROIT 11.8, OPPONENT 13.1.
--BUFFALO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 15.9, OPPONENT 20.5.
--BUFFALO is 36-19 UNDER (+15.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 15.3, OPPONENT 18.4.
--BUFFALO is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1993.
The average score was BUFFALO 3.9, OPPONENT 15.3.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 16 times, while the favorite covered the spread 4 times. *EDGE against the spread =DETROIT. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 14 games went under the total, while 12 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 35 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 22 games went over first half total, while 17 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (BUFFALO) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half against a poor punt coverage team, allowing more than 12 yards per return, after scoring 14 points or less last game.
(39-13 since 1993.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.6, Opponent 12.8 (Total first half points scored = 22.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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#105 INDIANAPOLIS @ #106 CINCINNATI
Line: Bengals -2.5, Total: 41.5
he Indianapolis Colts will try to avoid a winless preseason when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. The Colts latest setback came at the hands of Drew Brees when the veteran passed for 128 yards and two touchdowns as New Orleans outlasted Indianapolis, 23-17. Andrew Luck and Chandler Harnish each produced a TD pass for the Colts, who dropped to 0-3 in practice games. Luck started and was 10-of-18 for 103 yards with a pick for the hosts. Coby Fleener and Josh Lenz reached the end zone on passes, while Dan Herron led all rushers with 68 yards on eight carries.
The Bengals got their first preseason win last week when Terence Newman returned an interception for a touchdown and Cincinnati kicked four field goals en route to a 19-13 preseason victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Andy Dalton completed 13-of-21 passes for 157 yards for Cincinnati, while Mohamed Sanu and A.J. Green both caught five passes for 70 and 53 yards, respectively, in the triumph. Mike Nugent and Quinn Sharp, who were competing for the starting kicker job, each made two field goals. The veteran Nugent kept his job, however, as Sharp was released earlier this week.
•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.1, OPPONENT 24.2.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 18.4, OPPONENT 26.1.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 24-7 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 10.3, OPPONENT 13.3.
--CINCINNATI is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.9, OPPONENT 9.1.
--CINCINNATI is 41-17 OVER (+22.3 Units) the 1rst half total in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 11.3, OPPONENT 11.9.
--CINCINNATI is 25-6 OVER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was CINCINNATI 12.6, OPPONENT 13.0.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 22 times, while the favorite covered the spread 13 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 9 games went over the total, while 7 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 35 times. *No EDGE. 12 games went over first half total, while 11 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry, against a poor punt coverage team - allowing more than 12 yards per return, off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(70-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.4%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 12.3 (Total first half points scored = 22.6)
The situation's record this season is: (11-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-18).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (128-83).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (297-191).
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#107 ST LOUIS @ #108 MIAMI
Line: Dolphins -3, Total: 39
It's next man up in St. Louis. Days after losing veteran starting quarterback Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL, Shaun Hill is set to take over the St. Louis Rams as they visit south Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins in the preseason finale for both clubs. The Rams routed Cleveland, 33-14, last week despite losing Bradford early in the contest. Bradford went down on the game's opening drive after throwing an incomplete pass.
He was pressured and hit high by Browns defensive lineman Armonty Bryant. "It wasn't a high impact. ACL injuries, they're all different. This was just kind of a hyperextension and you just had impact come from the outside," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. "The knee was locked and something has to give, and unfortunately the ACL gave." The former No. 1 overall draft pick missed the Rams' final nine games last season after tearing the ACL in the same knee. He completed 4-of-9 passes for 77 yards before departing. "We lost our starting quarterback, but for Sam personally, it's devastating," Fisher said.
"The news was devastating to him as you can appreciate. Anyone that's gone through that procedure and the rehab understands, and to have it happen again within the calendar year is very, very difficult." Third-string QB Austin Davis saw significant playing time for the Rams and threw for 198 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard connection with Chris Givens. Hill, 34, last started a game for Detroit during the 2010 season. "We move forward as a football team. Shaun is our guy," Fisher added. "We brought him here. He's got experience. We've got all the confidence in the world in him."
The Dolphins got into the black this preseason last week when Orleans Darkwa scored on a 1-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter to give Miami a 25-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Darkwa finished with 70 rushing yards on six carries. Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill converted 13-of-21 passes for 119 yards and an interception, while Matt Moore went 12-for-19 for 172 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Mike Wallace hauled in six passes for 67 yards for Miami.
The Dolphins and Rams have split four previous preseason games.
•KEY STATS
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 23.9, OPPONENT 23.0.
--ST LOUIS is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) after a win by 14 or more points since 1993.
The average score was ST LOUIS 6.6, OPPONENT 15.9.
--ST LOUIS is 25-8 OVER (+16.2 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was ST LOUIS 10.2, OPPONENT 13.8.
--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 14.4, OPPONENT 11.7.
--MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 15.8, OPPONENT 20.8.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 20 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 16 times. 20 games went under the total, while 13 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 31 times. *No EDGE. 39 games went over first half total, while 24 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (MIAMI) - outgaining opponent by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season, after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.
(51-21 since 1993.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 9.8 (Total first half points scored = 21.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-11).
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#109 NY JETS @ #110 PHILADELPHIA
Line: Eagles -2.5, Total: 44.5
Thursday's final preseason game between the New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles had a chance to be more compelling than your average exhibition finale. With ex-Eagles starter Michael Vick set to back up Geno Smith with the Jets and former New York starter Mark Sanchez getting ready to serve as Nick Foles' caddy in Philly, things could have gotten interesting.
But, Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly pulled the plug on any of that by saying he would sit both Foles and Sanchez in favor of third-stringer Matt Barkley. Vick, meanwhile, will start for the Jets but don't blink. "Vick will start at quarterback, but don't expect him to play long," Jets coach Rex Ryan said. New York is trying to finish with its head above water in the preseason and build on the solid performances of Smith, who has completed 23-of-33 passes (69.7 percent) for 268 yards with one touchdown, and has also rushed for another score.
After the second-year player's performance in a setback to the Giants last week, in which he completed 9-of-14 passes for 137 yards with one touchdown with a 120.2 passer rating, Smith was officially named the starter for the regular season by Ryan. "He's done everything that we've asked," Ryan said. "It's a big deal," Smith added. "But nothing's going to change for me. I think I did some good things, but I've got work to do."
For the Eagles, Foles led the team to three first-half scores last week in a 31-21 win over Pittsburgh. The Pro-Bowl quarterback enters the 2014 regular season looking to build on last season's breakout performance in which he led the NFL with a 119.2 passer rating, the third-highest single-season mark in NFL history. "I feel like we're improving every week," Foles said of his team. "We have to keep moving forward."
•KEY STATS
--NY JETS are 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 19.6, OPPONENT 16.3.
--NY JETS are 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 6.6, OPPONENT 13.6.
--NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1993.
The average score was NY JETS 6.9, OPPONENT 9.3.
--PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1993.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 18.2, OPPONENT 21.1.
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 27.2, OPPONENT 22.8.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 9 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 8 times, while the underdog won straight up 8 times. 1 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 29 times, while the favorite covered first half line 25 times. *No EDGE. 6 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a terrible passing defense - allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse, after 2 straight games allowing 63% or higher completion pct (20 att).
(26-6 since 1993.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (25-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.2
The average score in these games was: Team 23.5, Opponent 15.1 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (46.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
________________________________________________
#111 KANSAS CITY @ #112 GREEN BAY
Line: Packers -3, Total: 42
The Kansas City Chiefs will wrap up their preseason slate by traveling to storied Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (7:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been one of the stars of the preseason, ranking second in the National Football League and leading all tight ends with 185 receiving yards. The second-year player has hauled in 10 receptions with two touchdowns in the practice games and is averaging 18.5 yards per catch.
Last week in a 30-12 loss against Minnesota, Kelce had a team-high 49 yards on four receptions and has led his club in receiving yards in all three preseason contests. "He's going to add another element to the tight end position," said Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith when discussing Kelce. "He'll stretch some defenses and do some things with the ball in his hands. It's exciting to see."
The Packers and star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, look ready for the regular season. Rodgers has completed 20-of-33 passes (60.6 percent) for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 116.6 passer rating in two appearances during the preseason. Last week in a win against Oakland, Rodgers threw for two scores and Pro Bowl running back Eddie Lacy, who was the 2013 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, rushed for one TD. "I think we're ready," said Rodgers. "It's been a good preseason. We've scored points and moved the ball."
This marks the fifth consecutive time that the Chiefs and Packers will close out the preseason against one another. Kansas City is 7-7-1 all-time in practice games versus the Packers.
•KEY STATS
--KANSAS CITY is 14-37 ATS (-26.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 15.3, OPPONENT 20.8.
--KANSAS CITY is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.0, OPPONENT 19.7.
--GREEN BAY is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 5.9, OPPONENT 15.3.
--GREEN BAY is 31-15 OVER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 11.7, OPPONENT 10.5.
--GREEN BAY is 35-18 OVER (+15.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 11.1, OPPONENT 11.1.
--GREEN BAY is 42-24 OVER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 9.5, OPPONENT 11.5.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 21 times, while the underdog covered the spread 21 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 25 times, while the underdog won straight up 17 times. 6 games went over the total, while 6 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 45 times. *No EDGE. 14 games went over first half total, while 11 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (KANSAS CITY) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
________________________________________________
#113 NEW ENGLAND @ #114 NY GIANTS
Line: Giants -3, Total: 41
What has become a traditional preseason finale renews at MetLife Stadium (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday evening when the New York Giants try to complete a perfect preseason against the New England Patriots. This will be the 10th straight year that the Giants and Patriots have clashed in the final preseason game. The clubs have been frequent exhibition opponents, squaring off in the preseason openers for three straight years from 2001-03 before resuming the series in 2005 when they started to meet in the preseason finale.
The Giants lead the overall preseason rivalry with a 14-9 advantage in 23 previous meetings. For New England this marks the third straight week in which they will do battle against a team the Patriots have faced in a Super Bowl. having played Philadelphia (Super Bowl XXXIX and Carolina (Super Bowl XXXVIII) in the previous two preseason games. The Patriots and Giants met in Super Bowl XLII and Super Bowl XLVI.
New England improved to 2-1 in the preseason last week when Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes to Shane Vereen as New England routed the Panthers, 30-7. Brady completed 17-of-21 passes for 204 yards while playing into the third quarter. He connected with Vereen for scores of 40 and six yards. Second-round draft pick Jimmy Garoppolo, who is competing with Ryan Mallett for the backup quarterback job, hooked up with Taylor McCuller for an 11-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Stephen Gostkowski made three field goals, including a 60-yarder in the waning seconds of the first half.
The Giants, meanwhile, improved to 4-0 in an extended preseason for them when Ryan Nassib threw three touchdown passes and the Big Blue rallied past their co-tenants at MetLife, the New York Jets, 35-24. Nassib went 8-for-12 with 103 yards in relief of Eli Manning, who was under center for the Giants in the first half and completed 12-of-21 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. Rashad Jennings gained 67 yards on 13 carries for the G-Men while Victor Cruz picked up 61 yards through the air on four receptions.
•KEY STATS
--NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.4, OPPONENT 10.1.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.6, OPPONENT 4.3.
--NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off a home win by 10 points or more since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 12.9, OPPONENT 10.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 12 times, while the underdog covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 4 times. 17 games went over the total, while 9 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 28 times, while the underdog covered first half line 22 times. *No EDGE. 32 games went over first half total, while 9 games went under first half total. *Edge against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY GIANTS) - in non-conference games, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog, good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(47-17 since 1993.) (73.4%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.6, Opponent 10.9 (Total first half points scored = 22.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
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#115 WASHINGTON @ #116 TAMPA BAY
Line: Buccaneers -3, Total: 38.5
It might not be a full blown quarterback controversy just yet but Robert Griffin III better start playing a little better for the Washington Redskins, who will conclude their 2014 preseason slate (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday evening when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Some high-profile supporters of backup Kirk Cousins have started to get more vocal inside the Beltway as RG3 continues to struggle in the preseason.
Last Saturday, the Redskins suffered their first defeat in exhibition play, dropping a 23-17 decision to the Baltimore Ravens. The loss was the Redskins' first in preseason play since Aug. 18, 2012 at Chicago, a span of 736 days. Overall Washington has won eight of its last nine practice games. Against the Ravens, Griffin went just 5-of-8 for 20 yards with an interception, while Cousins threw for 122 yards on 14-of-20 efficiency with touchdowns to Santana Moss and Nick Williams.
"It's going to be a decision that (head coach) Jay Gruden is going to have to make," former 'Skins star and current Redskins Broadcast Network analyst Joe Theismann said. "Right now, Robert Griffin III is his quarterback. Now, if there was a quarterback competition, it wouldn't be a competition. Kirk Cousins would be the man I believe he would have to go to, because of the efficiency with which he has run (the offense)."
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, made a slash on the field last week and one off it this week. Tampa Bay built a big halftime lead behind touchdowns from Doug Martin and Mike Evans, and held on from there to beat the Buffalo Bills, 27-14, on Saturday. Josh McCown passed for 112 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the first half as the Buccaneers got their first win in three preseason games. Evans had three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown while Martin had 12 carries for 38 yard. Mike Glennon completed five of his seven passes for 44 yards in the second half.
The Bucs then pulled off a stunning trade with the New England Patriots, acquiring six-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins in exchange for tight end Tim Wright and a fourth-round pick in 2015. Mankins, a first-round selection of New England in 2005 who has started 130 games during an impressive nine-year run with the Patriots, fills an obvious need on a Buccaneers' offensive line that lost left guard Carl Nicks to a possible career-ending toe injury.
"We feel very fortunate just to have Logan," said Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht, who formerly worked for the Patriots as the team's director of pro personnel. "He's a very good player. [I'm] a first-hand witness of what he means to the locker room as well. Any time you have five consecutive Pro Bowls, All-Pro player - I mean, [that's] a lot of accolades. But he's a great person. He's going to be great for that room, he's going to be great for this locker room."
•KEY STATS
--WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1993.
The average score was WASHINGTON 15.0, OPPONENT 22.6.
--WASHINGTON is 8-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was WASHINGTON 7.2, OPPONENT 12.2.
--TAMPA BAY is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 7.6, OPPONENT 18.3.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 9 times, while the underdog covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 6 times. 21 games went under the total, while 10 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 21 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 24 games went under first half total, while 22 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, against a good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after gaining 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(36-6 since 1993.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12, Opponent 11.2 (Total first half points scored = 23.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
_______________________________________________
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#117 CAROLINA @ #118 PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers -5, Total: 37.5
The Carolina Panthers will close the preseason (7:30 PM EST) Thursday night in the Steel City against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Panthers still have plenty of questions that need to be answered after last week's 30-7 drubbing at the hands of New England. "We want to try to get a good look at a number of players to help us make the right roster decisions," said Carolina head coach Ron Rivera. "At the same time, we need to find consistency that was lacking against New England."
The Panthers will also have to make those decisions without starting quarterback Cam Newton, who suffered a fractured rib against the Patriots. Newton suffered the injury late in the second quarter when he scrambled and absorbed a hit from Patriots linebacker Jamie Collins. He remained in the game until the third quarter and finished 8-of-12 for 88 yards. Joe Webb spoiled New England's shutout bid with a late TD pass. Rivera remains optimistic that Newton, who also had offseason ankle surgery, will be able to play in the Sept. 7 opener at Tampa Bay.
The Steelers are also dealing with some issues after a 31-21 setback at Philadelphia. Ben Roethlisberger played into the third quarter against the Eagles and finished the game 15- for-24 for 157 yards, one touchdown and one interception for the Steelers, who are 1-2 on the preseason. A day after being pulled over for marijuana possession the Pittsburgh running back tandem of Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount played and combined for 16 carries and 55 yards, along with four catches for 17 yards.
The two ball carriers and a female friend were arrested after Ross Township Police smelled the scent of marijuana coming from a black Camaro that Bell was driving. The three jointly admitted to possessing the marijuana and Bell is facing charges of possessing and driving under the influence, while Blount has to deal with those same possession charges. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin ultimately decided against any suspension, passing potential punishment off to the league while leaning on the logic that missing a preseason game would be a "reward" to players like Bell and Blount, who aren't fighting for a roster spot.
The Steelers have been Carolina's most common preseason opponent. Pittsburgh leads the preseason series 10-5.
•KEY STATS
--CAROLINA is 8-23 against the 1rst half line (-17.3 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1993.
The average score was CAROLINA 8.1, OPPONENT 12.5.
--PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.8, OPPONENT 14.8.
--PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 16.1, OPPONENT 22.6.
--PITTSBURGH is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.4, OPPONENT 6.3.
--PITTSBURGH is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1993.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 16.0, OPPONENT 8.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 20 times, while the favorite covered the spread 19 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 25 times, while the underdog won straight up 14 times. 29 games went under the total, while 27 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 41 times, while the underdog covered first half line 37 times. *No EDGE. 60 games went over first half total, while 25 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CAROLINA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game).
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
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#119 MINNESOTA @ #120 TENNESSEE
Line: Titians -2, Total: 41.5
The Minnesota Vikings will try to complete a perfect preseason under first-year head coach Mike Zimmer when they visit Music City to take on the Tennessee Titans. The Vikings kept their unbeaten record alive last week with a convincing 30-12 road victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. They are one of four undefeated teams entering the final week of the preseason. In the win, quarterback Matt Cassel passed for 152 yards, including a 53-yard touchdown to Cordarrelle Patterson.
Rookie backup Teddy Bridgewater added a pair of touchdown passes to tight end Allen Reisner. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense intercepted the Chiefs three times. Zimmer then told his team Monday that the veteran Cassel will be their starting quarterback when they take the field for the season opener on Sept. 7 at St. Louis. "We will hold the quarterback position to the expectation that we hold all positions. If you perform, you'll play," said Zimmer.
Cassel, who began the 2013 season behind Christian Ponder with the Vikings, completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 1,807 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions in nine games (six starts) last season. The USC product completed 26-of-39 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and a 103.3 rating in the preseason. Bridgewater, the No. 32 overall pick from Louisville, connected on 26-of-40 passes for 266 yards with four touchdowns during the preseason. "I told Teddy that it was not anything he did or didn't do," said Zimmer.
The Titans were on the road last week for the second consecutive preseason game and, after falling behind by two touchdowns, they scored 21 unanswered points to defeat the Atlanta Falcons, 24-17, at the Georgia Dome. Bishop Sankey's three-yard touchdown run and two-point conversion provided the winning margin with less than six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Titans quarterback Jake Locker played with the rest of the starters into the second half. The fourth-year signal caller was 12-of-17 for 188 yards, a touchdown and a passer rating of 126.6. His 63-yard touchdown pass to receiver Nate Washington sparked the team's comeback.
The Vikings and Titans have played six times during the preseason with Minnesota holding a 5-1 series lead.
•KEY STATS
--MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was MINNESOTA 25.7, OPPONENT 18.9.
--TENNESSEE is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 11.7, OPPONENT 9.6.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a upset win as an underdog since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.7, OPPONENT 10.0.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1993.
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.7, OPPONENT 10.0.
--TENNESSEE is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a road win sin
The average score was TENNESSEE 12.5, OPPONENT 9.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 11 times, while the favorite covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 10 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 8 times. 8 games went over the total, while 4 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 20 times, while the underdog covered first half line 18 times. *No EDGE. 13 games went over first half total, while 4 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(36-15 since 1993.) (70.6%, +19.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 10.8 (Total first half points scored = 22)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
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#121 SAN FRANCISCO @ #122 HOUSTON
Line: Texans -3, Total: 38.5
The Houston Texans will close out the preseason against the San Francisco 49ers (8:00 PM EST) Thursday at NRG Stadium. The Texans are coming off an 18-17 come-from-behind win at Denver last Saturday. Rookie quarterback Tom Savage led Houston on its game-winning drive, hitting tight end Ryan Griffin for a 31-yard touchdown with 59 seconds remaining and then connecting with receiver Travis Labhart on the ensuing 2- point conversion attempt.
Starting signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick went 10-for-17 for 80 yards and Jonathan Grimes scored a rushing touchdown in the win. The Texans' defense also continued its solid second-half play against Denver, holding its opponent scoreless for the second consecutive game. Houston hasn't allowed any points in the third quarter and has allowed just 12 points in the second half through three preseason games.
The 49ers, meanwhile, defeated San Diego, 21-7, on Sunday for their first win of the preseason. Vance McDonald caught a 6-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert with 46 seconds remaining in the first half for what turned out to be the game-winning score. Starting signal caller Colin Kaepernick was 6-of-12 for 59 yards while rookie second-round selection Carlos Hyde carried the ball six times for 38 yards. McDonald finished with three receptions for 29 yards and the touchdown for the 49ers.
Thursday's game will be just the third preseason meeting between the two teams. Houston defeated San Francisco 30-7 in the 2011 preseason and 20-9 in the 2012 preseason.
•KEY STAT
--SAN FRANCISCO is 7-18 against the 1rst half line (-12.8 Units) off a home win since 1993.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 8.2, OPPONENT 12.9.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 24 times, while the favorite covered the spread 17 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 26 times, while the underdog won straight up 18 times. 30 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 46 times, while the favorite covered first half line 39 times. *No EDGE. 40 games went under first half total, while 35 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SAN FRANCISCO) - terrible offensive team (<=265 YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (>=370 YPG), off 1 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
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#123 CHICAGO @ #124 CLEVELAND
Line: Browns -5, Total: 42
With the quarterback decision in the rear-view mirror for now, the Cleveland Browns and new coach Mike Pettine will be aiming to avoid a winless preseason when they square off with the Chicago Bears at First-Energy Stadium. St. Louis routed Cleveland, 33-14, last week despite losing quarterback Sam Bradford to a torn ACL in his left knee. Bradford went down on the game's opening drive after throwing an incomplete pass. He was pressured and hit high by Browns defensive lineman Armonty Bryant.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick missed the Rams' final nine games last season after tearing the ACL in the same knee. Named the Browns' starting quarterback over rookie Johnny Manziel to begin the season, Brian Hoyer had only 84 yards passing while playing into the third quarter. Hoyer did throw a touchdown pass to Andrew Hawkins, but he was also intercepted once and lost a fumble on a sack. Manziel passed for 85 yards and ran for a touchdown, and was sacked by rookie defensive end Michael Sam.
The Bears, meanwhile, received a wake-up call from the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who trounced Chicago, 34-6, in the Pacific Northwest last week. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks were in midseason form as the signal-caller threw two touchdown passes and ran for another in leading Seattle to points on all five of his drives in the first half. The third-year pro completed 15- of-20 passes for 202 yards and connected with Jermaine Kearse and backup running back Christine Michael for scores.
Jay Cutler and Chicago's starters were decidedly less impressive in their only half of action. Cutler tossed for 157 yards on 12-of-20 passes, while Matt Forte was limited to 17 yards on three carries. The Bears had a touchdown reversed and another nullified by a Brandon Marshall offensive pass interference penalty late in the second quarter.
This contest marks the 11th straight year that Cleveland and Chicago will face off during the preseason finale. During that span, the series is even at 5-5, but the Browns hold an 18-11 all-time edge in the preseason.
•KEY STATS
--CHICAGO is 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.4, OPPONENT 24.8.
--CHICAGO is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 13.1, OPPONENT 12.0.
--CHICAGO is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 10.3, OPPONENT 13.4.
--CHICAGO is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CHICAGO 12.6, OPPONENT 13.2.
--CLEVELAND is 26-12 OVER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total against NFC North division opponents since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 11.8, OPPONENT 11.2.
--CLEVELAND is 15-2 OVER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 12.3, OPPONENT 11.2.
--CLEVELAND is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 12.4, OPPONENT 12.4.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 16 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *EDGE against the spread =CHICAGO. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 11 games went over the total, while 10 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 20 times, while the favorite covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 17 games went over first half total, while 6 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CHICAGO) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(41-8 since 1993.) (83.7%, +32.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.6, Opponent 12.6 (Total first half points scored = 23.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
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#125 BALTIMORE @ #126 NEW ORLEANS
Line: Saints -3, Total: 43.5
A pair of Super Bowl contenders hoping to finish off perfect preseason’s meet in the Bayou (8:00 PM EST) on Thursday evening when the New Orleans Saints host the Baltimore Ravens. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has completed 29-of-45 passes for 345 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 102.5 passer rating in three preseason games under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, the former head coach in Houston.
In last week's win over Washington, Flacco connected on 16-of-23 passes for 180 yards with one touchdown to the newly acquired Steve Smith, a 24- yarder. "I'm ready," said Flacco about the start of the regular season. "Everybody is ready for real live games. Get out there and go." Flacco's counterpart with the Saints, Drew Brees, has struggled with an oblique strain in August but saw his first action last week and the Pro Bowl quarterback was sharp.
He completed 9-of-15 passes for 128 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 127.2 passer rating as New Orleans improved to 3-0 with a 23-17 win in Indianapolis. "I feel like it was a progression throughout the week, just getting the feel and timing back," said Brees, who led two touchdown drives in his three series on the field. "I don't think I'm 100 percent yet, but I feel like the tempo and rhythm and those things are coming back."
•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games after a win by 6 or less points since 1993.
The average score was BALTIMORE 17.0, OPPONENT 8.6.
--NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 25.2, OPPONENT 20.2.
--NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 20.9, OPPONENT 17.9.
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-17 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a non-conference game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.6, OPPONENT 11.4.
--NEW ORLEANS is 31-16 OVER (+13.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1993.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.0, OPPONENT 11.7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 12 times, while the favorite covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 13 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 5 games went under the total, while 3 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 27 times, while the underdog covered first half line 27 times. *No EDGE. 10 games went over first half total, while 2 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (NEW ORLEANS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(30-9 since 1993.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.4, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 22.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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#127 DENVER @ #128 DALLAS
Line: Broncos -2.5, Total: 43.5
The Dallas Cowboys will try to avoid a winless preseason when they host the reigning AFC Champion Denver Broncos (8:00 PM EST) on Thursday night. The Broncos are coming off a tough week, losing for the first time in exhibition play, a setback exacerbated by the latest concussion to star slot receiver Wes Welker, and finding out that star kicker Matt Prater will be suspended for the first month of the season for violating the NFL's substance- abuse policy.
Houston rookie Tom Savage's 31-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Griffin in the closing minute lifted the Texans to an 18-17 win over Denver last week, but the far bigger story stemming from the game was Welker, who was injured after taking a hit from Houston defensive back D.J. Swearinger late in the second quarter. It was his third concussion in the past 10 months. No timetable has been set for Welker's return and Broncos coach John Fox said the team would take it one day at a time.
"Our first priority is his safety and his well-being," Fox said earlier this week. "He's doing good and going through the protocol now, and he'll be out there when he's deemed healthy." Prater, meanwhile, was penalized for his second DUI issue and will not be eligible to return to the Broncos' active roster until Oct. 6, following the team's game against the Arizona Cardinals a day earlier. "I am definitely going to make some changes in my life: not drink at all or risk doing anything stupid like that," said Prater before Monday's practice.
"I need to keep myself out of certain situations where people are drinking." To replace Prater in the short-term Denver acquired former Temple University kicker Brandon McManus from the New York Giants in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick in the 2015 draft. McManus was set to be released by the Giants on Tuesday. He connected on both of his field goal attempts and recorded touchbacks on 10-of-11 kickoffs during the preseason with New York.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 0-3 in exhibition play after falling to the Miami Dolphins, 25-20, in south Florida last week. Tony Romo finished 10-for-18 for 87 yards and was sacked three times in the loss, while his backup Brandon Weeden was 5-of-9 for 77 yards and a TD LaRon Byrd. The preseason series between the Cowboys and the Broncos is tied at seven games apiece.
•KEY STATS
--DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 27.3, OPPONENT 15.8.
--DENVER is 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 24.9, OPPONENT 12.4.
--DENVER is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 24.1, OPPONENT 11.3.
--DENVER is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 8.9, OPPONENT 13.9.
--DALLAS is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 14.6, OPPONENT 18.3.
--DALLAS is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 11.7, OPPONENT 10.9.
--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 12.8, OPPONENT 12.7.
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse since 1993.
The average score was DALLAS 15.9, OPPONENT 10.0.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 11 times, while the underdog covered the spread 3 times. *EDGE against the spread =DENVER. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 1 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 15 times, while the underdog covered first half line 3 times. *EDGE against first half line =DENVER. 3 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DALLAS) - with a poor defense - allowing 335 or more total yards/game, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game.
(32-9 since 1993.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.8, Opponent 9.8 (Total first half points scored = 22.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
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#129 SEATTLE @ #130 OAKLAND
Line: Seahawks -5, Total: 38.5
The Seattle Seahawks are gearing up for a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions and will travel to Oakland for their final dress rehearsal in the 2014 preseason. Over the past two games, the Seahawks first-team offense, led by third-year quarterback Russell Wilson, has been nearly unstoppable. A week after racking up 260 yards and 24 points in the first half against San Diego, Seattle gained 250 yards and scored 31 points last week versus Chicago.
The Seahawks scored touchdowns on their first four possessions against the Bears and Wilson has a string of nine consecutive scoring drives over the past two games. "The entire offensive group is just executing at a good clip right now," said Seattle head coach Pete Carroll. "Russell is really committed to what is happening. We're hitting a pretty good clip right now. Hopefully we can keep it going."
Things haven't gone as smoothly for the Raiders, who made significant personnel changes in the offseason. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew, one of those additions, had a 40-yard touchdown run last week, and wide receiver Brice Butler added two touchdown receptions in a loss in Green Bay last week. "I think we're ready to take a jump," veteran defensive back Charles Woodson said of his team. "I feel really good about what we did (in Week 3). And I'm very confident that we'll get better."
Seattle owns a significant 9-3 edge in its previous preseason bouts against the Raiders.
•KEY STATS
--SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.1, OPPONENT 9.5.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.6, OPPONENT 10.4.
--SEATTLE is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 22.8, OPPONENT 16.2.
--SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a win by 21 or more points since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.4, OPPONENT 15.3.
--SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.1, OPPONENT 17.1.
--OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
The average score was OAKLAND 16.6, OPPONENT 19.9.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 14 times, while the underdog covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 24 games went under the total, while 23 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 21 times, while the underdog covered first half line 10 times. *No EDGE. 43 games went over first half total, while 24 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Any team (SEATTLE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games, in non-conference games, off 2 consecutive home wins.
(32-11 since 1993.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average score in these games was: Team 20.3, Opponent 17.4 (Average point differential = +3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (41.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-9).
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#131 ARIZONA @ #132 SAN DIEGO
Line: Chargers -3, Total: 39
The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Diego this week to face the Chargers in a preseason finale for both clubs that should be even more vanilla than most. That's because the two teams will meet again 11 days later when the Chargers visit Arizona for a Monday Night matchup in Week #1 of the regular season. Last week, the Cardinals dropped a 19-13 decision to the Cincinnati Bengals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona's defense did not allow a touchdown in the game and rookie WR John Brown provided the biggest offensive highlight with a diving 30-yard TD reception late in the third quarter,
Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton continued his solid preseason run, completing 10-of-13 passes for 108 yards and a TD in leading Arizona to 10 points in his three second-half series. Stanton has a 125.0 passer rating in the preseason and has thrown a TD in all three games. The Cards' defense was led by the team's 2014 first-round pick, safety Deone Bucannon, who was credited with a game-high seven tackles as Arizona fell to 1-2 in practice action.
San Diego is also 1-2 in the preseason, coming off a 21-7 loss on Sunday to the 49ers in San Francisco. Quarterback Philip Rivers only played the first quarter in that one and was very sharp, hitting 9-of-10 passes for 85 yards and a TD to star tight end Antonio Gates. This contest marks the first time since 2003 that the Cardinals will be visiting San Diego for preseason play. When the two teams rematch in Week 1, it will mark the Chargers first-ever regular season visit to University of Phoenix Stadium.
•KEY STATS
--SAN DIEGO is 25-8 OVER (+16.2 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 19.4, OPPONENT 23.2.
--SAN DIEGO is 38-17 OVER (+19.3 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.3, OPPONENT 11.1.
--SAN DIEGO is 24-9 OVER (+14.1 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1993.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 10.4, OPPONENT 12.5.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 19 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 15 times. 18 games went under the total, while 17 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 39 times, while the favorite covered first half line 30 times. *No EDGE. 37 games went over first half total, while 22 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (ARIZONA) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(33-9 since 1993.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.8, Opponent 11.3 (Total first half points scored = 22.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).
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Texas A&M at South Carolina
By Joe Nelson
College football is back and the Thursday night schedule opens up with several big games. The SEC headlines the opening night slate with a matchup of two prominent programs as Texas A&M visits South Carolina. Mississippi and Vanderbilt are also in action for the SEC in later matchups on Thursday’s six-game slate.
Match-up: Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina (grass)
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2014
Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET – SEC Network
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None
The impact of Jonny Manziel at Texas A&M has been huge and it will be a great challenge for the Aggies to maintain its position among the elite teams in the SEC. While the Aggies did not win a championship in either of the past two seasons, Texas A&M went 20-6 with two bowl wins to wipe away mostly mediocre results in the past two decades. Most expected Texas A&M to struggle in the move to the SEC, but so far it has been a great success and the university is reaping the rewards in many ways, including another great recruiting class for Kevin Sumlin.
While Texas A&M will play a soft non-conference schedule in 2014, they draw one of the tougher overall schedules in the conference. There are no easy outs in the West division and the draw from the East features last year’s top two teams, with Missouri in November and this challenging opening game with South Carolina. The Aggies also have daunting travel with five of the first eight games of the season away from home and in addition to this visit to Columbia, the Aggies are playing on the road against both Alabama and Auburn this season.
Sophomore Kenny Hill has been named the starter for Texas A&M, beating out freshman Kyle Allen who many had projected to win the job. Hill did see the field last season, completing 16 passes while also rushing for 37 yards. He fits the bill as a dual-threat player that has some of the mobility that was so valuable for Manziel, and he is not much bigger than Manziel at just 6’1”.
Just as pressing as the loss at quarterback is, the loss of NFL draft pick Mike Evans who had monster numbers for the Aggies last season with nearly 1,400 receiving yards, while importantly bailing Manziel out on some of his wild scrambles. The Aggies have four receivers on the roster that had receptions last season, but the offense is very young at the skill positions. Even with the loss of several higher profile offensive linemen in recent years, the Aggies will still have an experienced unit that could be one of the best lines in the SEC, which should help the transition considerably.
While Manziel was the most talked about player at the NFL draft this spring, the #1 pick in the draft was South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While Clowney did not have huge statistics last season, he certainly took a lot of attention from opposing teams. South Carolina actually took a substantial step back defensively in its 2013 statistics compared with 2012, though it marked a third consecutive season that South Carolina has finished 11-2 with a bowl win over a Big Ten team under Steve Spurrier, now in his 10th season with the program. It will be interesting to see if South Carolina can maintain its strong defensive reputation with a lot of new players in key spots this season.
South Carolina also lost its starting quarterback from last season in Connor Shaw, who ironically is with Manziel on the Cleveland Browns roster, at least for the time being. Shaw had a great college career also playing as a dual-threat quarterback though injuries kept him from having as consistent success. Missing some time has allowed Dylan Thompson, now a senior in the starting role to gain plenty of experience. Thompson threw for 783 yards last season including starting two games and he also started a game in the 2012 season. Thompson is much more of a pocket passer than Shaw so the Gamecocks will lean on the running backs this season.
Mike Davis is the lead running back for South Carolina and he averaged 5.8 yards per carry last season en route to a nearly 1,200 yard season. Davis had an injury scare earlier this month and has missed some practice with a rib injury, but he is expected to be a full participant for the opener. It is a position where South Carolina has some depth so it will be a committee approach for most of the season and especially in the opener as Texas A&M allowed 222 yards per game on the ground last season.
The Aggies do have a lot of experience on defense, including most of the key players on the defensive line returning to action, but statistically Texas A&M was the worst rush defense in the SEC season in 2013. Expect the Aggies to attempt to bottle up the run in this game and force Thompson to make some throws, but the Gamecocks also possess a veteran receiving corps that lost only one key player from last season’s rotation.
South Carolina is undefeated at home the past two seasons with consecutive 7-0 campaigns in Columbia, but there have been a few close calls with three wins by seven or fewer points in that span, all coming against SEC opponents. Texas A&M is actually 7-2 on the road under Sumlin and the most famous win for the program in this era came in a pretty tough venue in Tuscaloosa. This will be the biggest underdog spread for the Aggies since that 29-24 win over Alabama in 2012. The Aggies were twice a road underdog last season but they came up short in both instances.
Line Movement: The line opened at -11 before dropping to 10 and climbing back to 10.5 at most outlets. The total has climbed from 57 to 58.
Last Meeting: This is the first ever meeting between Texas A&M and South Carolina
Texas A&M Historical Trends: This program has not performed well away from home going just 66-93-3 ATS in road games since 1980 and the more recent numbers are no better with a 25-45-1 ATS record since 1999. Texas A&M is just 2-6 the last three years as an underdog and 25-41-1 ATS as an underdog going back to 2000. Texas A&M is 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points going back to 1982.
South Carolina Historical Trends: South Carolina is 32-3 S/U and 21-13 ATS at home since 2009. Under Spurrier South Carolina is 8-1 S/U but just 5-4 ATS in home openers, winning each of the last seven home openers S/U with covers in five of the last six. Under Spurrier, South Carolina is 25-17-2 ATS as a home favorite, losing outright just three times in those 44 games.
There are five additional games on the Thursday night opening slate – here is a quick look at two of the other prominent games:
Mississippi vs. Boise State (ESPN)
Line: Mississippi -10, Over/Under 54
This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, one of two games this weekend in the building as Alabama and West Virginia will face off Saturday in Atlanta. The Broncos have played in a number of big national openers against high profile teams, featuring mixed results including an ugly loss last season against Washington. After eight impressive seasons in Boise, Chris Petersen left for the Washington opening as a new era opens. Last season, Boise State fell to 8-5 for its worst season in over a decade but that was incredibly inexperienced team. This year’s team should be better as one of the favorites in the Mountain West though this is a tough opening draw for Bryan Harsin, who takes over after just one season at Arkansas State. After a 2-10 season in 2011, Hugh Freeze has led two successful seasons for the Rebels with bowl wins. The next step is competing for a SEC title and there is a lot of experience on this team, even though the Rebels are often forgotten in the loaded SEC West. With veteran QB and nine starters back on a very talented defense, Ole Miss could be a sleeper in the West division and the SEC as a whole. Both teams have great recent records in neutral site games with Mississippi going 17-5-1 ATS since 1985 and Boise State going 10-3 ATS since 2000.
Rutgers vs. Washington State (FOX1)
Line: Washington State -8, Over/Under 61
This game is a neutral site game in Seattle at CenturyLink Field. In the opening game last season on the road, Washington State out-gained Auburn in a tough 31-24 loss. Little did anyone know that Auburn would wind up playing for a national championship at the end of the season. While there were several ugly losses along the way, Washington State wound up back in the postseason in just the second season for Mike Leach in Pullman, though the season ended with a stunning bowl loss.
The Cougars allowed 458 yards per game last season, but the offense returns quarterback Connor Halliday and nearly the entire receiving corps as this will again be a very productive offensive team. Washington State has lost by combined score of 150-64 in the last three Seattle games, but there will be much more of a home-field edge this time around given the long travel for Rutgers.
Rutgers is pegged to be one of the bottom teams in its first season in the Big Ten, but the schedule is a huge factor in the lack of optimism. This is an experienced team and Kyle Flood has done a nice job in two seasons as Rutgers has made back-to-back bowl trips, exceeding most expectations. The strength of the Knights has been stopping the run in recent seasons and that won’t be much of an issue in this matchup, but Rutgers does have veteran lines that should allow the team to compete in this game if they can cash in on offensive opportunities to keep up with the high scoring Cougars. Rutgers has been a great team to back as an underdog in the last decade, going 46-22-2 ATS when getting points since 2002. Washington State is just 17-24 ATS as a favorite since 2003 and the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in neutral site games since 2001.
By Joe Nelson
College football is back and the Thursday night schedule opens up with several big games. The SEC headlines the opening night slate with a matchup of two prominent programs as Texas A&M visits South Carolina. Mississippi and Vanderbilt are also in action for the SEC in later matchups on Thursday’s six-game slate.
Match-up: Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina (grass)
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2014
Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET – SEC Network
Line: South Carolina -10.5, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None
The impact of Jonny Manziel at Texas A&M has been huge and it will be a great challenge for the Aggies to maintain its position among the elite teams in the SEC. While the Aggies did not win a championship in either of the past two seasons, Texas A&M went 20-6 with two bowl wins to wipe away mostly mediocre results in the past two decades. Most expected Texas A&M to struggle in the move to the SEC, but so far it has been a great success and the university is reaping the rewards in many ways, including another great recruiting class for Kevin Sumlin.
While Texas A&M will play a soft non-conference schedule in 2014, they draw one of the tougher overall schedules in the conference. There are no easy outs in the West division and the draw from the East features last year’s top two teams, with Missouri in November and this challenging opening game with South Carolina. The Aggies also have daunting travel with five of the first eight games of the season away from home and in addition to this visit to Columbia, the Aggies are playing on the road against both Alabama and Auburn this season.
Sophomore Kenny Hill has been named the starter for Texas A&M, beating out freshman Kyle Allen who many had projected to win the job. Hill did see the field last season, completing 16 passes while also rushing for 37 yards. He fits the bill as a dual-threat player that has some of the mobility that was so valuable for Manziel, and he is not much bigger than Manziel at just 6’1”.
Just as pressing as the loss at quarterback is, the loss of NFL draft pick Mike Evans who had monster numbers for the Aggies last season with nearly 1,400 receiving yards, while importantly bailing Manziel out on some of his wild scrambles. The Aggies have four receivers on the roster that had receptions last season, but the offense is very young at the skill positions. Even with the loss of several higher profile offensive linemen in recent years, the Aggies will still have an experienced unit that could be one of the best lines in the SEC, which should help the transition considerably.
While Manziel was the most talked about player at the NFL draft this spring, the #1 pick in the draft was South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While Clowney did not have huge statistics last season, he certainly took a lot of attention from opposing teams. South Carolina actually took a substantial step back defensively in its 2013 statistics compared with 2012, though it marked a third consecutive season that South Carolina has finished 11-2 with a bowl win over a Big Ten team under Steve Spurrier, now in his 10th season with the program. It will be interesting to see if South Carolina can maintain its strong defensive reputation with a lot of new players in key spots this season.
South Carolina also lost its starting quarterback from last season in Connor Shaw, who ironically is with Manziel on the Cleveland Browns roster, at least for the time being. Shaw had a great college career also playing as a dual-threat quarterback though injuries kept him from having as consistent success. Missing some time has allowed Dylan Thompson, now a senior in the starting role to gain plenty of experience. Thompson threw for 783 yards last season including starting two games and he also started a game in the 2012 season. Thompson is much more of a pocket passer than Shaw so the Gamecocks will lean on the running backs this season.
Mike Davis is the lead running back for South Carolina and he averaged 5.8 yards per carry last season en route to a nearly 1,200 yard season. Davis had an injury scare earlier this month and has missed some practice with a rib injury, but he is expected to be a full participant for the opener. It is a position where South Carolina has some depth so it will be a committee approach for most of the season and especially in the opener as Texas A&M allowed 222 yards per game on the ground last season.
The Aggies do have a lot of experience on defense, including most of the key players on the defensive line returning to action, but statistically Texas A&M was the worst rush defense in the SEC season in 2013. Expect the Aggies to attempt to bottle up the run in this game and force Thompson to make some throws, but the Gamecocks also possess a veteran receiving corps that lost only one key player from last season’s rotation.
South Carolina is undefeated at home the past two seasons with consecutive 7-0 campaigns in Columbia, but there have been a few close calls with three wins by seven or fewer points in that span, all coming against SEC opponents. Texas A&M is actually 7-2 on the road under Sumlin and the most famous win for the program in this era came in a pretty tough venue in Tuscaloosa. This will be the biggest underdog spread for the Aggies since that 29-24 win over Alabama in 2012. The Aggies were twice a road underdog last season but they came up short in both instances.
Line Movement: The line opened at -11 before dropping to 10 and climbing back to 10.5 at most outlets. The total has climbed from 57 to 58.
Last Meeting: This is the first ever meeting between Texas A&M and South Carolina
Texas A&M Historical Trends: This program has not performed well away from home going just 66-93-3 ATS in road games since 1980 and the more recent numbers are no better with a 25-45-1 ATS record since 1999. Texas A&M is just 2-6 the last three years as an underdog and 25-41-1 ATS as an underdog going back to 2000. Texas A&M is 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points going back to 1982.
South Carolina Historical Trends: South Carolina is 32-3 S/U and 21-13 ATS at home since 2009. Under Spurrier South Carolina is 8-1 S/U but just 5-4 ATS in home openers, winning each of the last seven home openers S/U with covers in five of the last six. Under Spurrier, South Carolina is 25-17-2 ATS as a home favorite, losing outright just three times in those 44 games.
There are five additional games on the Thursday night opening slate – here is a quick look at two of the other prominent games:
Mississippi vs. Boise State (ESPN)
Line: Mississippi -10, Over/Under 54
This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, one of two games this weekend in the building as Alabama and West Virginia will face off Saturday in Atlanta. The Broncos have played in a number of big national openers against high profile teams, featuring mixed results including an ugly loss last season against Washington. After eight impressive seasons in Boise, Chris Petersen left for the Washington opening as a new era opens. Last season, Boise State fell to 8-5 for its worst season in over a decade but that was incredibly inexperienced team. This year’s team should be better as one of the favorites in the Mountain West though this is a tough opening draw for Bryan Harsin, who takes over after just one season at Arkansas State. After a 2-10 season in 2011, Hugh Freeze has led two successful seasons for the Rebels with bowl wins. The next step is competing for a SEC title and there is a lot of experience on this team, even though the Rebels are often forgotten in the loaded SEC West. With veteran QB and nine starters back on a very talented defense, Ole Miss could be a sleeper in the West division and the SEC as a whole. Both teams have great recent records in neutral site games with Mississippi going 17-5-1 ATS since 1985 and Boise State going 10-3 ATS since 2000.
Rutgers vs. Washington State (FOX1)
Line: Washington State -8, Over/Under 61
This game is a neutral site game in Seattle at CenturyLink Field. In the opening game last season on the road, Washington State out-gained Auburn in a tough 31-24 loss. Little did anyone know that Auburn would wind up playing for a national championship at the end of the season. While there were several ugly losses along the way, Washington State wound up back in the postseason in just the second season for Mike Leach in Pullman, though the season ended with a stunning bowl loss.
The Cougars allowed 458 yards per game last season, but the offense returns quarterback Connor Halliday and nearly the entire receiving corps as this will again be a very productive offensive team. Washington State has lost by combined score of 150-64 in the last three Seattle games, but there will be much more of a home-field edge this time around given the long travel for Rutgers.
Rutgers is pegged to be one of the bottom teams in its first season in the Big Ten, but the schedule is a huge factor in the lack of optimism. This is an experienced team and Kyle Flood has done a nice job in two seasons as Rutgers has made back-to-back bowl trips, exceeding most expectations. The strength of the Knights has been stopping the run in recent seasons and that won’t be much of an issue in this matchup, but Rutgers does have veteran lines that should allow the team to compete in this game if they can cash in on offensive opportunities to keep up with the high scoring Cougars. Rutgers has been a great team to back as an underdog in the last decade, going 46-22-2 ATS when getting points since 2002. Washington State is just 17-24 ATS as a favorite since 2003 and the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in neutral site games since 2001.
Twins far from happy to see this pitcher
Justin Hartling
The Minnesota Twins will step into the batters box and see Jeremy Guthrie Thursday. In the Twins last six against the Kansas City Royals and Guthrie they are 1-5.
Guthrie has only allowed 13 runs over those six starts and has not once given up more than six hits.
Justin Hartling
The Minnesota Twins will step into the batters box and see Jeremy Guthrie Thursday. In the Twins last six against the Kansas City Royals and Guthrie they are 1-5.
Guthrie has only allowed 13 runs over those six starts and has not once given up more than six hits.
Pitcher can't defend home field against opponent
Justin Hartling
John Danks has only faced the Cleveland Indians a handful of times at U.S. Cellular Field, but it has not been friendly to him at all. In Danks' last six starts against the Indians in Chicago has seen him and the White Sox go 1-5.
Danks has given up seven or more hits in four of the games while also giving up more than five runs on four occasions.
Justin Hartling
John Danks has only faced the Cleveland Indians a handful of times at U.S. Cellular Field, but it has not been friendly to him at all. In Danks' last six starts against the Indians in Chicago has seen him and the White Sox go 1-5.
Danks has given up seven or more hits in four of the games while also giving up more than five runs on four occasions.
