SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Texas @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE +105 over Texas
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)
The Rangers' injury plagued and brutal season continues. Texas has two wins over their last 14 games. Over that span they’ve scored two runs or less in eight games. They’ve been outscored in the first three games of this series by a count of 21-8 and even with Yu Darvish going they are too big a risk as the chalk. Darvish continues to put up elite strikeout numbers but there are some warts in his profile that do not play well at this park against the Orioles. His periodic control problems and extreme fly-ball tilt give him more risk than most aces. Furthermore, Darvish’s strikeouts dip and walks rise the deeper he goes into games and especially the third time through the order. Darvish has walked 16 over his last 35 innings and his strand rate of 82% has gotten him off the hook a few times. No question that Darvish is able to escape jams because of his high strikeout rate but with a 43% fly-ball rate, (34% groundball rate) don’t be surprised to see the O’s take him yard once or twice. Hopefully there will be men on when someone connects. Darvish has a 1.37 WHIP over his last five starts, which is another red flag that suggests fatigue.
We’re not even going to get into the Orioles starter here because this wager has nothing to do with him. This bet is against the Texas Rangers as a road favorite. They’re a reeling and banged up team that is counting down the days until the All-Star break and that is showing up at the park expecting to lose.
Arizona @ PITTSBURGH
Arizona +130 over PITTSBURGH
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)
Vance Worley was fantastic in his rookie season of 2011, where he was 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA, yet he found himself beginning 2014 in AAA-Indianapolis trying to earn his way back to the big leagues. In seven starts with AAA-Indianapolis, he was 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 43/4 K/BB in 46 IP. Last year, Worley went 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA in 49 IP for Minnesota. 2011's success seems long ago. Bone spurs hurt his 2012 results but don't explain the 2013 debacle. See that 2011/2012 strikeout rate spike of 226 K’s in 265 innings? Worley’s swing and miss rate said it wasn't going to last, and it didn't. His swing and miss rate of 5% this year, combined with average skills and numbers in the minors strongly suggest his 1.74 ERA after three starts since his call-up isn’t going to last either. Why didn’t Worley make the team out of spring training this past April? A 13.50 ERA will do that.
Brandon McCarthy is a true enigma. His 5.11 ERA after 17 starts makes no sense whatsoever. McCarthy’s skills are outstanding and this is exactly the type of park that he figures to excel in. McCarthy’s 65% strand rate and unlucky 20% HR/F combine to make him one of baseball’s unluckiest pitchers. We like that McCarthy is coming off a strong seven-inning start in San Diego in which he allowed just one run. That’s good for his confidence. His skills say he should be winning a lot more games. McCarthy has outstanding control (18 walks in 108 innings) to go along with an elite 56% groundball rate. McCarthy also has a decent strikeout rate and his xERA of 3.18 tells the real story of a pitcher with great skills. Over time, things even out for pitchers and in the first half every bounce went against McCarthy. However, one win often leads to two and with these skills and just two victories in 17 starts, McCarthy is a prime buy-low target that is worth investing in.
N.Y. Yankees @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA +138 over N.Y. Yankees
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)
Masahiro Tanaka is the Yankees best asset that needs no introductions, as he’s been better than anyone could have expected. However, in order to win you need run support and the Yankees offense is very capable of putting up a goose egg every game. New York has lost five straight and has two wins over its last 11 games. It would be two wins in 12 games had Carlos Beltran not hit a three-run, walk off homer against the O’s on June 20. The Yanks best hitters are Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury at .288. Five regulars are hitting .225 or less and another is hitting .237. In other words, most Yankees are hitting below their weight and slightly above their age. This is a terrible, aging team that is only going to get worse, as those hot and humid summer nights begin to pile up and take its toll. We’re seeing signs of that already and even with Tanaka going the Yanks are a huge risk, especially against a quality pitcher like Phil Hughes.
Phil Hughes will take on his former team for the second time this season. He first faced them on June 1, throwing a true gem, where he earned the win, allowing two ER over eight innings. Nine of his last 12 starts have resulted in a pure quality start, over which time he has an unbelievable 68/4 K/BB. Over his last five starts covering 34 innings, Hughes has a K/BB split of 2/32. His swinging strike rate is trending up and is now at 11% for the year and 17% over his last two starts. Hughes comes into this start with a 3.53 ERA over 16 starts and a 4.75 ERA at home over eight starts. Pay no attention to Hughes’ home ERA, as it’s been wrecked by a very unlucky 64% strand rate. His road ERA has also been hurt by an unlucky strand rate and when that normalizes, Hughes’ ERA will drop even lower. Hughes’ xERA of 3.09 over his last 13 starts in which the Twinkies have won 10 of them is a more accurate barometer of just how well he's pitching and you can be damn sure that he’ll be a little extra jacked up here to stick it to his old team. If you’re playing value, the Twins are a must play here.
MLB
Texas @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE +105 over Texas
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)
The Rangers' injury plagued and brutal season continues. Texas has two wins over their last 14 games. Over that span they’ve scored two runs or less in eight games. They’ve been outscored in the first three games of this series by a count of 21-8 and even with Yu Darvish going they are too big a risk as the chalk. Darvish continues to put up elite strikeout numbers but there are some warts in his profile that do not play well at this park against the Orioles. His periodic control problems and extreme fly-ball tilt give him more risk than most aces. Furthermore, Darvish’s strikeouts dip and walks rise the deeper he goes into games and especially the third time through the order. Darvish has walked 16 over his last 35 innings and his strand rate of 82% has gotten him off the hook a few times. No question that Darvish is able to escape jams because of his high strikeout rate but with a 43% fly-ball rate, (34% groundball rate) don’t be surprised to see the O’s take him yard once or twice. Hopefully there will be men on when someone connects. Darvish has a 1.37 WHIP over his last five starts, which is another red flag that suggests fatigue.
We’re not even going to get into the Orioles starter here because this wager has nothing to do with him. This bet is against the Texas Rangers as a road favorite. They’re a reeling and banged up team that is counting down the days until the All-Star break and that is showing up at the park expecting to lose.
Arizona @ PITTSBURGH
Arizona +130 over PITTSBURGH
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)
Vance Worley was fantastic in his rookie season of 2011, where he was 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA, yet he found himself beginning 2014 in AAA-Indianapolis trying to earn his way back to the big leagues. In seven starts with AAA-Indianapolis, he was 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 43/4 K/BB in 46 IP. Last year, Worley went 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA in 49 IP for Minnesota. 2011's success seems long ago. Bone spurs hurt his 2012 results but don't explain the 2013 debacle. See that 2011/2012 strikeout rate spike of 226 K’s in 265 innings? Worley’s swing and miss rate said it wasn't going to last, and it didn't. His swing and miss rate of 5% this year, combined with average skills and numbers in the minors strongly suggest his 1.74 ERA after three starts since his call-up isn’t going to last either. Why didn’t Worley make the team out of spring training this past April? A 13.50 ERA will do that.
Brandon McCarthy is a true enigma. His 5.11 ERA after 17 starts makes no sense whatsoever. McCarthy’s skills are outstanding and this is exactly the type of park that he figures to excel in. McCarthy’s 65% strand rate and unlucky 20% HR/F combine to make him one of baseball’s unluckiest pitchers. We like that McCarthy is coming off a strong seven-inning start in San Diego in which he allowed just one run. That’s good for his confidence. His skills say he should be winning a lot more games. McCarthy has outstanding control (18 walks in 108 innings) to go along with an elite 56% groundball rate. McCarthy also has a decent strikeout rate and his xERA of 3.18 tells the real story of a pitcher with great skills. Over time, things even out for pitchers and in the first half every bounce went against McCarthy. However, one win often leads to two and with these skills and just two victories in 17 starts, McCarthy is a prime buy-low target that is worth investing in.
N.Y. Yankees @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA +138 over N.Y. Yankees
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)
Masahiro Tanaka is the Yankees best asset that needs no introductions, as he’s been better than anyone could have expected. However, in order to win you need run support and the Yankees offense is very capable of putting up a goose egg every game. New York has lost five straight and has two wins over its last 11 games. It would be two wins in 12 games had Carlos Beltran not hit a three-run, walk off homer against the O’s on June 20. The Yanks best hitters are Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury at .288. Five regulars are hitting .225 or less and another is hitting .237. In other words, most Yankees are hitting below their weight and slightly above their age. This is a terrible, aging team that is only going to get worse, as those hot and humid summer nights begin to pile up and take its toll. We’re seeing signs of that already and even with Tanaka going the Yanks are a huge risk, especially against a quality pitcher like Phil Hughes.
Phil Hughes will take on his former team for the second time this season. He first faced them on June 1, throwing a true gem, where he earned the win, allowing two ER over eight innings. Nine of his last 12 starts have resulted in a pure quality start, over which time he has an unbelievable 68/4 K/BB. Over his last five starts covering 34 innings, Hughes has a K/BB split of 2/32. His swinging strike rate is trending up and is now at 11% for the year and 17% over his last two starts. Hughes comes into this start with a 3.53 ERA over 16 starts and a 4.75 ERA at home over eight starts. Pay no attention to Hughes’ home ERA, as it’s been wrecked by a very unlucky 64% strand rate. His road ERA has also been hurt by an unlucky strand rate and when that normalizes, Hughes’ ERA will drop even lower. Hughes’ xERA of 3.09 over his last 13 starts in which the Twinkies have won 10 of them is a more accurate barometer of just how well he's pitching and you can be damn sure that he’ll be a little extra jacked up here to stick it to his old team. If you’re playing value, the Twins are a must play here.
Harry Bondi
MLB
Bonus Play Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) over Arizona Diamondbacks
We have made a fortune going against Brandon McCarthy Arizona this season. His 2-10 record has cost bettors who have backed him more than any other starting pitcher in baseball this season. Tonight he goes against the red hot Pirates who have won 9 of their last 11 and we expect more of the same from the bankroll busting McCarthy.
MLB
Bonus Play Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) over Arizona Diamondbacks
We have made a fortune going against Brandon McCarthy Arizona this season. His 2-10 record has cost bettors who have backed him more than any other starting pitcher in baseball this season. Tonight he goes against the red hot Pirates who have won 9 of their last 11 and we expect more of the same from the bankroll busting McCarthy.
Best Bet From Marco D’Angelo
Toronto Blue Jays over The Oakland A’s
Bad scheduling spot for the A’s as they are off the long road trip. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the mound and he was beat up a bit by Miami in his last outing.
Toronto counters with RA Dickey, who has an ERA of 4.42 in his last 3 starts, but he still has allowed 3 ERs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Toronto is 20-12 in Dickey’s last 32 starts as a dog.
Toronto Blue Jays over The Oakland A’s
Bad scheduling spot for the A’s as they are off the long road trip. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the mound and he was beat up a bit by Miami in his last outing.
Toronto counters with RA Dickey, who has an ERA of 4.42 in his last 3 starts, but he still has allowed 3 ERs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Toronto is 20-12 in Dickey’s last 32 starts as a dog.
OC Dooley
2 Unit Colorado Rockies +130
On paper this game is a mismatch as Los Angeles goes with their #2 starting pitcher up against a Colorado hurler whose last start came way back in the month of May. Despite the Rockies spending the better part of a month losing on a nightly basis the money-line for this contest has actually DROPPED substantially from the opening offshore figure which saw the Dodgers as a much steeper road favorite (-160). To make a long story short due to injuries Franklin Morales (last start 5/31) is being given a second shot at as a member of a Colorado rotation that desperately needs a veteran arm to stop the bleeding. The entire Rockies roster has special MOTIVATION as the last time they faced the Dodgers (6/18) resulted in Clayton Kershaw tossing a no-hitter which essentially was a “perfect game”. Most reading this analysis are aware that the THIN AIR and high altitude of Denver has adverse effects on visiting pitchers. Despite his excellent statistics Zack Greinke has actually struggled at Colorado allowing a hefty 12 earned runs in the most recent 17.1 innings tossed at Coors Field. It was a stunning National TV verdict last night as the Cubs ended up sweeping a series at Boston in front of the ESPN cameras. As of this typing a Thursday late afternoon MLB Network national telecast saw heavy underdog St. Louis leading early by a 5-1 count in San Francisco and I feel we could be looking at another upset on the same network this evening
2 Unit Colorado Rockies +130
On paper this game is a mismatch as Los Angeles goes with their #2 starting pitcher up against a Colorado hurler whose last start came way back in the month of May. Despite the Rockies spending the better part of a month losing on a nightly basis the money-line for this contest has actually DROPPED substantially from the opening offshore figure which saw the Dodgers as a much steeper road favorite (-160). To make a long story short due to injuries Franklin Morales (last start 5/31) is being given a second shot at as a member of a Colorado rotation that desperately needs a veteran arm to stop the bleeding. The entire Rockies roster has special MOTIVATION as the last time they faced the Dodgers (6/18) resulted in Clayton Kershaw tossing a no-hitter which essentially was a “perfect game”. Most reading this analysis are aware that the THIN AIR and high altitude of Denver has adverse effects on visiting pitchers. Despite his excellent statistics Zack Greinke has actually struggled at Colorado allowing a hefty 12 earned runs in the most recent 17.1 innings tossed at Coors Field. It was a stunning National TV verdict last night as the Cubs ended up sweeping a series at Boston in front of the ESPN cameras. As of this typing a Thursday late afternoon MLB Network national telecast saw heavy underdog St. Louis leading early by a 5-1 count in San Francisco and I feel we could be looking at another upset on the same network this evening
