THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (51-44) at Cincinnati (46-50)
The red-hot Mets look to keep rolling as they open the second half of the season by sending ace Johan Santana (8-7, 2.84 ERA) to the hill at Great American Ball Park against the Reds. New York won nine straight games heading into the All-Star break, scoring five or more runs in six of those games while allowing three runs or less seven times. The Mets swept a three-game home set from the Rockies last weekend, allowing just one run in the series and closing it out with Sunday?s 7-0 Sunday.
New York is 10-1 in its last 11 games, climbing back into the N.L. East race after firing manager Willie Randolph and replacing him with Jerry Manuel. The Mets are on further runs of 7-0 against losing teams, 46-21 after an off day and 6-2 behind Santana in series openers. On the flip side, they are 1-6 in Santana?s last seven starts overall and 0-4 in his last four road outings.
Cincinnati, which will counter with rookie right-hander Johnny Cueto (7-9, 4.67), has won seven of its last 10 games and is 5-0 in its last five against the N.L. East, 12-4 in its last 16 at home against winning teams, 8-3 in its last 11 against left-handers and 5-1 behind Cueto in series openers. However, the Reds are 2-6 in their last eight games after an off day.
This is the second series this season between these two teams. The Mets took two of three at Shea Stadium in May and are 6-2 in the last eight clashes.
Santana is 1-4 with a pair of no-decisions in his last seven outings, despite giving up just 11 earned runs over 45 innings (2.20 ERA) in that stretch. However, in his most recent outing on July 9 against San Francisco, he yielded no runs on three hits in five innings in a 5-0 home victory, Santana?s first win since June 1. During Santana?s run of bad luck, he?s still pitched at least six innings in 12 of 13 starts, with the win over the Giants ? which was interrupted by a rain delay in the sixth inning ? being the lone exception.
Cueto had a two-game win streak snapped July 9 on the road against the Chicago Cubs, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 5-1 setback. The 22-year-old is 5-5 in his last 10 starts, after starting the season 2-4 with three no-decisions in his first nine. The Reds are 5-2 in Cueto?s last seven starts at home.
Santana is 4-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 10 road starts this year, and he?s 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Reds. On May 10, he gave up 10 hits but just three runs in six innings of a 12-6 home victory over Cincy. Meanwhile, Cueto is 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and in his lone career start against the Mets on May 11, he gave up six runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings of an 8-3 road loss.
The the under is on streaks of 5-1 for the Mets overall, 6-1-3 for Santana overall, 5-0 with Cueto starting, 8-2 when Cueto goes at home and 7-3 in Cincy?s last 10 series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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