Joe Gavazzi
Thursday, April 10, 2014
NBA
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (-1-) 8:00 ET TNT
10* San Antonio (+1-)
Spurs hold a 3 game lead over OKC (with 4 games to go) for the best record in the league. They have all but closed them out. This is typically a spot where HC Popovich has rested veteran starters. Such will most probably be the case with Parker and Ginobili. But as the Spurs depth has improved in recent years, this has been of little consequence. Of greater note is the Spurs poor performance in a 110-91 loss at Minnesota Tuesday night. The Spurs are 26-9 ATS following a loss as favorite and 12-5 ATS following any defeat this season. With a record of 20-2 SU, 17-5 ATS of late, they are certainly a team I am looking to play on. San Antonio has a recent dominance of their in-state rival, winning and covering 7 consecutive games in the series, including 3 this year, by margins of 6, 22, and 9 points. Clearly, this line has been impacted for Dallas need. With both Memphis and Phoenix winning last night, the Mavs remain tied with the Suns in the loss column and just 1 game ahead of Memphis in the loss column, as those 3 teams vie for the final 2 playoff spots in the West. A recent home record of 12-23 ATS is additional cause for concern when looking to back the Mavs. Eager to lineup with the best team in basketball as underdog off a loss.
Denver Nuggets at Golden St. Warriors (-12) 10:35 ET TNT
5* Golden St. (-12)
A 123-116 Denver home win last night over Houston sets up a negative situation for the Nuggets, who are 3-9 ATS away unrested. A major reason for this poor record could be the loss of 6 integral parts to their team to injury over the course of the year. The most important of those is PG Lawson, who is again doubtful for these festivities tonight. Despite that victory last night, towel-tossing Denver is just 2-6 SU of late, allowing 113 PPG. Far prefer Golden St., who is playing with positive momentum of a 17-7 SU recent record. That includes a huge momentum-building home win of 130-102 as double digit favorite the last time they played on this court. Home standing Warriors the only way to look in this one against a Denver team who may mail it in a high-scoring road loss.
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates (Cole) (-125) at Chicago Cubs (T. Wood) 2:20 ET
5* Pittsburgh (-125)
My MLB selections are 12-8 for the year (60%) on the heels of a season in which I won 6/7 months and someone who risked $300/game on these selections won over $15,000. This will be you in 2014! The fact that Cubs starter T. Wood has a 1.50 ERA in 3 starts against Pittsburgh is the only thing that prevents this from a higher rating, for the Cubs are in a situation that has not been lucrative to their backers. The 3-5 record for the season includes a 7-5 victory vs. Pittsburgh last night. The Cubs have yet to win consecutive games this year, dropping their record to 9-24, home following a win, since the start of last season. Wood was mediocre at best in his first start, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits in 6 1/3 IP in a 7-2 loss to Philly. No such chinks in the armor of Cole. In his last 5 starts dating back to last year, this emerging starter has gone 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA. That includes his first start this season when he allowed 6 hits in 7 IP in a 12-2 victory over St. Louis. It also includes a 2-0 record against the Cubs with a 2.08 ERA. With the more consistent starter against an inconsistent home team, the Pirates get this road victory.
Miami Marlins (Koehler) at Washington Nationals (Strasburg) (-220) 4:05 ET
5* Miami (+200)
My MLB selections are 12-8 for the year (60%) on the heels of a season in which I won 6/7 months and someone who risked $300/game on these selections won over $15,000. This will be you in 2014! The emerging Miami bats bolted to a 5-0 lead against Zimmerman last night before melting down in a 10-7 loss. Now, the improved Marlins look to avoid the sweep and put an end to a series streak that has seen Washington go 11-1, outscoring the Fish, 59-22. That happens today against an overpriced Strasburg. In a pair of starts this season, Strasburg has allowed 10 runs in 10 1/3 IP. That could easily translate into more issues against the improved Miami bats. In 7 starts vs. the Marlins, Strasburg has a bloated 6.97 ERA. Koehler has been the far more consistent starter. Dating to last season, in his last 4 starts, Koehler is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA. This includes allowing 2 runs in 6 IP in an 8-2 victory vs. San Diego in his first start this season. We double our money with this big dog winner.
Milwaukee Brewers (Estrada) at Philadelphia Phillies (Lee) (-120) 7:05 ET
10* Milwaukee (+110)
My MLB selections are 12-8 for the year (60%) on the heels of a season in which I won 6/7 months and someone who risked $300/game on these selections won over $15,000. This will be you in 2014! Lee has run through the raindrops this season with a 2-0 record, despite a 6.00 ERA and a .375 BAA. That is bad news against the booming Brewer bats. Milwaukee enters on a 5 game winning streak, in which they have scored 36 runs with a .321 BA. That includes a pair of victories by combined scores of 19-8 against Philly the last two nights. It also makes it 5 straight for the Brewers against the Phils. Estrada is an under the radar hurler. In his last 10 starts, dating to last season, Estrada has a 2.10 ERA and .169 BAA. That includes allowing 1 ER on 4 hits in 5 2/3 IP of a 6-2 Boston victory. Must take the hot team as underdog with what appears to be the best of it on the mound.
Oakland A’s (Straily) (-145) at Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) 1:10 ET
10* Oakland (-145)
My MLB selections are 12-8 for the year (60%) on the heels of a season in which I won 6/7 months and someone who risked $300/game on these selections won over $15,000. This will be you in 2014! Oakland led wire-to-wire for the first 8 innings yesterday before continuing problems surfaced with newly acquired closer, Johnson (from Baltimore). Such has not been the case with Oakland starters. Chavez was outstanding on Wednesday for the second straight game. Meaning all Oakland starters have allowed 3 or less runs in each start with every starter working 6+ IP in 7/8 games. The extra inning victory, 7-4, boosted the Oakland series record to 13-2, including 8-0 at this site. Straily pitched well in his first start, allowing just 2 runs in 6 IP with a 7/1 KBB. Pelfrey is a retread, who the last time he faced Oakland, allowed 7 runs on 8 hits in only 3 IP of an 18-3 Minnesota loss. The Twins struggles continue at home, where they have lost both home games to fall to 96-149 on this field 3+Y. That includes 36-74 in the role of home dog. It looks like it is all Oakland again today.
