THE SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3
NFL
N.Y. Jets (5-6 SU and ATS) vs. Buffalo (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
(at Toronto)
The Bills and Jets head north of the border to the Rogers Centre for an AFC East clash, the second straight year that Buffalo has played a “home” game in Toronto.
Buffalo came up with a 24-point fourth quarter to erase a 14-7 deficit and whip Miami 31-14 Sunday as a 3½-point home pup. The Bills ended a three-game SU skid and have cashed in both their games under interim coach Perry Fewell, with Sunday’s effort marking their second-highest scoring output of the year. Prior to Sunday, Buffalo scored 20 points or less in eight straight games, including 15 points or less five times. Also, the defense has come to play in two games under Fewell, allowing 18 and 14 points after yielding a combined 72 points the previous two weeks in losses to Houston and Tennessee.
New York halted a three-game SU and ATS slide by topping Carolina 17-6 as a 3½-point home favorite Sunday, winning and covering for just the second time in the last eight games. The Jets field the NFL’s second-best total defense (283.9 ypg) and only allow 17.7 ppg (sixth), but their offense has produced 22 points or less in three straight games and six of 11 this year. Also, New York’s minus-5 turnover ratio rates 26th in the NFL.
Buffalo upended New York 16-13 in overtime on Oct. 18 as a 9½-point road underdog, picking off Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez five times, as the Bills won despite getting gashed for 318 rushing yards. Buffalo is now 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in this rivalry. The road team has covered in the last four meetings, the underdog is on a 20-7 ATS run, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 matchups.
The SU winner has cashed in New York’s last 13 games dating to last season and nine of Buffalo’s last 10 contests.
The Bills are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 starts against losing teams, but they are on ATS skids of 1-6 following a SU win and 0-4 as a pup of three points or less. The Jets’ current 2-6 SU and ATS purge is accompanied by pointspread slides of 0-5 in December, 0-4 in the division, 1-5 versus the AFC, 3-9 as a favorite and 6-14-1 against losing teams.
The under for Buffalo is on runs of 5-2 overall and 6-0 after a SU win, and the under has hit in seven of New York’s last eight December games. On the flip side, the over is 15-7 in the Bills’ last 22 December outings, and the over for the Jets is on upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 in the AFC and 5-2 from the favorite’s role.
In this rivalry, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall. Also, all five Thursday NFL contests this season – including last week’s trio of Thanksgiving games – have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(13) Oregon State (8-3, 6-4 ATS) at (7) Oregon (9-2, 7-4 ATS)
Oregon State and Oregon meet in the 113th edition of the annual Civil War battle, and for the first time in series history, the winner will claim the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth.
Both teams were idle last week following victories on Nov. 21 that kept their conference championship hopes alive. Oregon State took down Washington State 42-10, barely covering as a 31-point road favorite, while the Ducks rallied from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit at Arizona, getting a touchdown with six seconds remaining to force overtime, then prevailed 44-41 in the second overtime, coming up short as a six-point road chalk.
Oregon (7-1, 6-2 ATS) is alone atop the conference standings, one game ahead of the Beavers (6-2 SU and ATS). Oregon is trying to claim its first outright league title and Rose Bowl trip since 1994, while the Beavers haven’t played in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day since 1964. Since then, Oregon State has only once managed a share of the conference championship, and that was in 2000.
Oregon State enters this game having won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and six of its last seven (both SU and ATS), a run that has occurred entirely in conference action. During this seven-game stretch, Oregon has scored at least 26 points in every game, averaging 35.6 points per outing, while holding five of the seven opponents to 21 points or less. Take away the one loss – 42-36 at USC – and Oregon State has surrendered just 18.2 ppg in its last five wins.
The Ducks have won nine of 10 games since a disappointing 19-8 loss at Oregon to start the season, and they’ve scored 31 or more points in nine of the last 10, including tallying between 42 and 47 points in their last five contests (44 ppg). Defensively, Oregon has had just two poor showings in Pac-10 play – allowing 51 points to Stanford and 41 to Arizona. Other than that, the Ducks have given up 13.2 ppg in their other six Pac-10 contests. Oregon has won nine straight home games overall and eight straight Pac-10 contests in Autzen Stadium.
The Ducks went to Corvallis last year and crushed Oregon State 65-38 as a 2½-point road underdog, ending the Beavers’ two-game win streak in this rivalry and coaching Oregon State the Pac-10 title. It was the most points Oregon State had ever surrendered in a game. The visitor has won the last two meetings following a 10-game run by the host. Also, the road team has taken the cash each of the last three years (all as an underdog) after the home team went 6-1 ATS and the favorite went 5-2 ATS in the previous seven years.
For the season, the Beavers put up 32.4 points and 422.2 total yards per game (149 rushing ypg, 4.2 yards per carry), with QB Sean Canfield completing 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,805 yards with 19 TDs and six INTs. Defensively, Oregon State yields 22.2 points and 340.5 yards per contest (98.5 rushing ypg.
QB Jeremiah Masoli (1,865 passing yards, 619 rushing yards, 26 total TDs, 4 INTs) paces a Ducks offense that ranks seventh in the nation in score (37.7 ppg) and 418.8 yards per game (231.4 rushing ypg, 5.5 per carry). The defense surrenders 22.7 points and 324 total yards per outing (130.6 rushing ypg).
The Beavers have covered in three Pac-10 games as a road underdog this season, including two outright upsets. They’re also on pointspread runs of 22-8 overall, 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 23-9 in Pac-10 action, 6-1 in December, 9-2 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup, 5-0 as a ‘dog of 3½ and 10 points, 4-0 against winning teams, 13-3 after a bye, 16-5 after an outright win and 48-19 after a spread-cover.
Oregon is riding positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 25-12 at home (5-0 last five), 8-2 in conference, 9-2 after a SU win, 8-1 after a bye, 5-2 as a favorite, 4-1 as a home chalk and 7-3 against winning teams. The lone negative for the Ducks: They’ve failed to cover in four straight games on Thursday, including the season-opening loss at Boise State.
Oregon State carries “under” trends of 7-1 on the road, 9-1-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 9-3-1 after a bye. The under is also 4-0 in Oregon’s last four Thursday contests and 8-3-1 in its last 12 after a bye, but from there, the Ducks are on lengthy “over” runs of 5-0 overall (all in conference), 9-1-1 at home and 13-2-2 as a favorite.
Finally, each of the last seven meetings in this rivalry went over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arkansas State (3-8, 2-8 ATS) at Western Kentucky (0-11, 5-6 ATS)
Western Kentucky tries one final time to get a victory in 2009 when it closes the season at home against the Red Wolves in a Sun Belt Conference clash.
Arkansas State snapped a four-game losing skid with Saturday’s 30-26 victory over North Texas, failing to cover as a seven-point favorite, its fifth ATS setback. It was the most points the Red Wolves had scored since a season-opening 61-0 win over Division I-AA Mississippi Valley State, as they had been held to 18 points or less (15.8 ppg) during their four-game losing streak.
The Hilltoppers have come up just short the last two weeks, losing on the road at Louisiana-Monroe (21-18) and Florida Atlantic (29-23). However, they easily covered as a double-digit favorite in both games and have now cashed in three in a row following an 0-4 ATS slump. Western Kentucky, which is giving up a whopping 41 points and 499 total yards per game this season, has lost 19 consecutive games overall, 25 straight to Division I-A opponents and 14 in a row to Sun Belt Conference foes. Head coach Dave Elson, who was fired on Nov. 9, will be on the Western Kentucky sidelines for the final time tonight.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
On top of its current 0-5 ATS slide, Arkansas State is in pointspread funks of 8-23 overall, 1-11 on the road, 2-9 as a favorite, 1-10 as a road chalk, 7-20 in Sun Belt play, 6-19-1 after a SU win, 0-4 on Thursday and 8-22 versus losing teams. The Hilltoppers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a home ‘dog and 0-6 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing road record.
For the Red Wolves, the under is on runs of 19-7-1 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 9-4 when laying points, 5-1 as a road favorite and 15-5-1 on grass. The under is also 6-2 in Western Kentucky’s last eight as a home ‘dog and 11-5 in its last 16 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Boston (14-4, 8-10 ATS) at San Antonio (9-6, 8-7 ATS)
The surging Celtics go after their sixth straight win and fourth straight spread-cover when they continue a four-game road trip with a stop at the AT&T Center for a battle with the Spurs, who have also won five in a row.
Boston crushed Charlotte 108-90 as a four-point road favorite on Tuesday, topping the century mark for the sixth time in their last eight games, including the fourth time during their five-game win streak. The Celtics are averaging 107.2 points per game while shooting a blistering 51.6 percent from the field during their current five-game run. They allowed 106 ppg in the first three victories but have held the last two to 90 and 85 points. Also, Boston’s three straight spread-covers follow an 0-6 ATS slump.
Like Boston, San Antonio has ripped off five straight victories – four of them at home – by an average of 13.2 ppg (105-91.8). However, after cashing in four consecutive games, the Spurs came up short as a 12-point home chalk in their most recent contest, Sunday’s 97-89 win over the 76ers. San Antonio is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at the AT&T Center.
These teams split their season series last year, with the road team scoring an outright upset in each game. In fact, the visitor is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five. Boston, which has won three straight in San Antonio (all as an underdog), is on runs against the Spurs of 4-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. The underdog cashed in all six of those contests.
The Celtics are on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 14-5 against the Southwest Division, 14-6 in marquee Thursday matchups, 36-15-1 as an underdog, 46-19-1 as a road pup and 4-0-1 when catching less than five points. Conversely, San Antonio has failed to cover in five straight Thursday games and is 1-4 ATS in its last five versus Atlantic Division opponents and 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of less than five points. But otherwise the Spurs are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall and 7-3 at home.
The Celtics have topped the total in four of their last five overall, and the over is 14-5 in San Antonio’s last 19 at home and 4-1 in its last five when coming off three or more days’ rest. On the flip side, the under is on runs of 4-1 for Boston on Thursday, 5-2 for Boston against Western Conference foes and 5-2 for San Antonio overall. Lastly, three of the past four meetings in this series have gone over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Miami (10-7, 8-9 ATS) at Denver (13-5, 10-8 ATS)
Fresh off an impressive victory in Portland, the Heat resume their four-game Western Conference road swing when they invade the Pepsi Center in hopes of sweeping the season series from the Nuggets.
Miami dropped consecutive home games over the weekend to Washington and Boston – scoring just 84 and 85 points – then went to Portland on Tuesday and found some offense, rolling to a 107-100 victory as a 6½-point road underdog. The Heat got outrebounded by the Trail Blazers 49-34 but shot 53.3 percent from the field as three players – Michael Beasley (27 points), Dwyane Wade (22) and Quentin Richardson (20) – all scored at least 20 points. Miami cashed for just the second time in its last 10 games.
Denver bounced back from Sunday’s stunning 106-100 home loss to Minnesota as a 14½-point favorite with Tuesday’s 135-107 rout of Golden State, easily covering as a 15-point home chalk. The Nuggets have won five of their last six games – scoring in triple digits in all six – while going 4-1 ATS. George Karl’s team is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS on its home floor this season, though tonight marks the end of a four-game homestand for Denver, which embarks on a four-game road trip Saturday in San Antonio.
The Nuggets won their first five games of the season, then went to Miami on Nov. 6 and finally tasted defeat, falling 96-88 as a one-point road favorite. That also ended Denver’s eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) in this rivalry, but the Nuggets have still won and covered the last three meetings with the Heat at the Pepsi Center, cruising by scores of 108-97, 115-89 and 123-107. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head battles, the host is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes and Miami has failed to cover in four of its last five trips to the Mile High City.
In addition to their current 2-8 ATS nosedive, the Heat are in pointspread slumps of 3-10 on Thursday and 1-6 when playing after one day of rest. Denver has failed to cover in 13 of 19 against the Eastern Conference and four straight versus Southwest Division opponents, but otherwise the Nuggets are on positive ATS runs of 23-11 overall, 14-5 at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 on Thursday and 39-15-1 when favored by five to 10½ points.
Miami is on “over” streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog) and 37-15-1 against the Northwest Division, but the under is 4-1 in its last five on Thursday. Meanwhile, Denver has topped the total in 12 of 15 on Thursday and 54 of its last 81 when favored by five to 10½ points. Finally, four of the last five Pepsi Center meetings between these squads have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
USC (2-2, 0-2-1 ATS) at (2) Texas (5-0, 4-1 ATS)
The unbeaten and second-ranked Longhorns welcome USC into the Frank Erwin Special Events Center in Austin for a non-conference matchup.
The Trojans have alternated wins and losses this season with all four of their games coming on their home court, including Sunday’s 51-48 loss to Nebraska as a 3½-point favorite. In their two wins this season, the Trojans averaged 75.5 points, but just 53.5 in their two losses.
Texas has scored at least 73 points in all five of its games, and the Longhorns went on the road Sunday and crushed Rice 77-59, but came a half-point short as an 18½-point road favorite, their first non-cover of the year. Texas is averaging 80.4 ppg this season and shooting a whopping 52 percent from the floor while holding the opposition to 32.8 percent shooting.
These teams squared off in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, with USC delivering an 87-68 beat-down as a 2½-point underdog.
The Trojans come in on ATS slides of 0-3-1 in non-conference action and 1-4 against Big 12 opponents, but they are on ATS upticks of 35-16 after a non-cover, 4-0 on Thursdays and 23-10 after a straight-up loss. Texas is on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 at home, 6-1 overall, 6-1 in non-conference action and 5-1 as a chalk.
For USC, the over is on runs of 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 after a non-cover and 6-1 on Thursdays. Texas has stayed “under” the total in five of six games after a non-cover, but the over is 5-2 in the Longhorns’ last seven overall and 4-1 in their last five after a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
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