VegasButcher - NBA 11-9 ytd
Parlay:
Houston Rockets -290 ML / Cincinnati Bengals -265 ML @ -120 combined odds
Rockets
No Duncan (rest), no Ginobili (rest), no Splitter (injury), no Belinelli (injury), no Mills (long-term injury) for the Spurs today. So that leaves Leonard (30 mins yesterday), Parker (37 mins), Green (33 mins), Diaw (34 mins), Joseph, Ayres, Bonner, and a few other scrubs. Houston has been dynamite so far this year (#2 Off Eff / #4 Def Eff) while the Spurs haven’t been very efficient just yet. I know that typically San Antonio has their ‘backups’ pick up the slack for the starters when they’re rested/injured, but this one feels a bit different. San Antonio is just NOT in ‘mid-season’ form yet, while the Rockets are hitting on all cylinders. This is a big mismatch from my perspective, and doesn’t help that the Spurs are short-handed for this one. Besides, Houston went 4-0 against the Spurs last year, as their athleticism, speed, and pace were just too much for San Antonio. I’d be surprised if they don’t win tonight.
NFL
Teaser (6.5 pts):
Cincinnati Bengals PK / Arizona Cardinals -0.5
Cleveland hasn’t won a divisional road game since 2008. Bengals have a 14-game home winning streak. It’s a Thursday Night game which naturally favors the home team. But of course these are trends, and trends tend to be broken. The real reason for the play is that Cincy is the better team, especially at home. The Browns are a winning team but that’s bound to happen when you face opponents like TEN, JAX, OAK, and TBB. I know the Browns played Pittsburgh well twice as well as Baltimore and the Saints, but that was earlier in the year. In the last 3 weeks of the season, this Browns team has been horrible and that’s when they’ve faced JAX, OAK, and TBB, the consensus bottom-3 teams in the league. I like to use FootballOutsiders’ advanced stats (DVOA) when analyzing teams and in the last 3 weeks, Cleveland’s average DVOA (it’s their per play rate statistic adjusted for the strength of an opponent) was -38.8%. Basically, on a per-play basis, they’ve been almost 40% worse than a league average team. For comparison purposes, the worst team in the league based on DVOA this year is Tampa Bay, and they’re at -36.7%. So in the last 3 weeks of the season, Cleveland has played like one of the worst teams in the league. So what changed? Well, they lost their stud center Alex Mack. Since then their run-game went to hell and the team has to rely on Hoyer to move the ball on offense. Here lies the problem, Cincy is the 4th best passD in the league. You beat this team by running the ball on them, but I’m not sure Cleveland will be capable of doing so. Cincy has now scored 33, 27, 37, 33, and 24 points at home this year, for an average of 31 PPG. Their stud rookie RB Jeremy Hill is going to have a lot of success against Cleveland 31st ranked runD and of course AJ Green and Sanu are matchup nightmare on the outside. Browns will need to score points to keep up and I just don’t see them able to do so here. Keep in mind that the Bengals are missing a number of key linebackers as well as Leon Hall. Due to these injury concerns I won’t lay the points but teasing the Bengals is much better play from my standpoint.
Cardinals:
I’ll have more on this game in my weekly breakdowns, but basically I’m fading a bad Rams team coming off a huge road-win. This is St Louis’ 3rd straight road game also, and after playing SEA, KCC, and SF in 3 consecutive weeks, I expect a major letdown at Arizona. Cardinals should win this one.
Parlay:
Houston Rockets -290 ML / Cincinnati Bengals -265 ML @ -120 combined odds
Rockets
No Duncan (rest), no Ginobili (rest), no Splitter (injury), no Belinelli (injury), no Mills (long-term injury) for the Spurs today. So that leaves Leonard (30 mins yesterday), Parker (37 mins), Green (33 mins), Diaw (34 mins), Joseph, Ayres, Bonner, and a few other scrubs. Houston has been dynamite so far this year (#2 Off Eff / #4 Def Eff) while the Spurs haven’t been very efficient just yet. I know that typically San Antonio has their ‘backups’ pick up the slack for the starters when they’re rested/injured, but this one feels a bit different. San Antonio is just NOT in ‘mid-season’ form yet, while the Rockets are hitting on all cylinders. This is a big mismatch from my perspective, and doesn’t help that the Spurs are short-handed for this one. Besides, Houston went 4-0 against the Spurs last year, as their athleticism, speed, and pace were just too much for San Antonio. I’d be surprised if they don’t win tonight.
NFL
Teaser (6.5 pts):
Cincinnati Bengals PK / Arizona Cardinals -0.5
Cleveland hasn’t won a divisional road game since 2008. Bengals have a 14-game home winning streak. It’s a Thursday Night game which naturally favors the home team. But of course these are trends, and trends tend to be broken. The real reason for the play is that Cincy is the better team, especially at home. The Browns are a winning team but that’s bound to happen when you face opponents like TEN, JAX, OAK, and TBB. I know the Browns played Pittsburgh well twice as well as Baltimore and the Saints, but that was earlier in the year. In the last 3 weeks of the season, this Browns team has been horrible and that’s when they’ve faced JAX, OAK, and TBB, the consensus bottom-3 teams in the league. I like to use FootballOutsiders’ advanced stats (DVOA) when analyzing teams and in the last 3 weeks, Cleveland’s average DVOA (it’s their per play rate statistic adjusted for the strength of an opponent) was -38.8%. Basically, on a per-play basis, they’ve been almost 40% worse than a league average team. For comparison purposes, the worst team in the league based on DVOA this year is Tampa Bay, and they’re at -36.7%. So in the last 3 weeks of the season, Cleveland has played like one of the worst teams in the league. So what changed? Well, they lost their stud center Alex Mack. Since then their run-game went to hell and the team has to rely on Hoyer to move the ball on offense. Here lies the problem, Cincy is the 4th best passD in the league. You beat this team by running the ball on them, but I’m not sure Cleveland will be capable of doing so. Cincy has now scored 33, 27, 37, 33, and 24 points at home this year, for an average of 31 PPG. Their stud rookie RB Jeremy Hill is going to have a lot of success against Cleveland 31st ranked runD and of course AJ Green and Sanu are matchup nightmare on the outside. Browns will need to score points to keep up and I just don’t see them able to do so here. Keep in mind that the Bengals are missing a number of key linebackers as well as Leon Hall. Due to these injury concerns I won’t lay the points but teasing the Bengals is much better play from my standpoint.
Cardinals:
I’ll have more on this game in my weekly breakdowns, but basically I’m fading a bad Rams team coming off a huge road-win. This is St Louis’ 3rd straight road game also, and after playing SEA, KCC, and SF in 3 consecutive weeks, I expect a major letdown at Arizona. Cardinals should win this one.
NonStopSportsPicks
NBA
1.5* Spurs/Rockets Over 198
Just too few of points for the SAS/Houston game. Yes, I know the Spurs are resting some players, but really the Spurs run the floor more with the “old men” out. And I don’t see Houston’s defense ALWAYS holding opponents down. So we’ll bite for a small shot.
NBA
1.5* Spurs/Rockets Over 198
Just too few of points for the SAS/Houston game. Yes, I know the Spurs are resting some players, but really the Spurs run the floor more with the “old men” out. And I don’t see Houston’s defense ALWAYS holding opponents down. So we’ll bite for a small shot.
Kevin Thomas
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 21.5/-110 Wake Forest Play Title: Kevin 8*NCAAF THURSDAY WINNER*
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-110 Cleveland Browns Play Title: KEVINS 8*NFL IN-HOUSE PLAY
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 21.5/-110 Wake Forest Play Title: Kevin 8*NCAAF THURSDAY WINNER*
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-110 Cleveland Browns Play Title: KEVINS 8*NFL IN-HOUSE PLAY
Chris Jacobson
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 199.5/-110 Under
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche (NHL) - 9:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 110 Toronto Maple Leafs
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.0/-110 Cincinnati Bengals
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 199.5/-110 Under
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche (NHL) - 9:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 110 Toronto Maple Leafs
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.0/-110 Cincinnati Bengals
Lou Lacerda
Florida Panthers vs. Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/184 Philadelphia Flyers Play Title: NHL DOG
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 22.5/-110 Wake Forest Play Title: 3 UNITS
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-110 Houston Rockets Play Title: 3 UNITS
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-115 Cleveland Browns Play Title: 4 UNITS (THURSDAY NFL)
Florida Panthers vs. Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/184 Philadelphia Flyers Play Title: NHL DOG
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 22.5/-110 Wake Forest Play Title: 3 UNITS
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-110 Houston Rockets Play Title: 3 UNITS
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-115 Cleveland Browns Play Title: 4 UNITS (THURSDAY NFL)
World Wide Sports
Edmonton Oilers vs. Boston Bruins (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 177 Edmonton Oilers
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 42.0/-106 Over
New Jersey Devils vs. St. Louis Blues (NHL) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 155 New Jersey Devils
Edmonton Oilers vs. Boston Bruins (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 177 Edmonton Oilers
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 42.0/-106 Over
New Jersey Devils vs. St. Louis Blues (NHL) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 155 New Jersey Devils
Tony Stoffo
Edmonton Oilers vs. Boston Bruins (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -195 Boston Bruins Play Title: 5 Units
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 43.0/-110 Under Play Title: 5 Units
Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) - 7:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -175 Tampa Bay Lightning Play Title: 5 Units
New Jersey Devils vs. St. Louis Blues (NHL) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -167 St. Louis Blues Play Title: 5 Units
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-110 Houston Rockets Play Title: 5 Units
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.0/-109 Cincinnati Bengals Play Title: 5 Units
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 44.5/-110 Over Play Title: 5 Units
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers (NBA) - 10:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Dallas Mavericks Play Title: 5 Units
Edmonton Oilers vs. Boston Bruins (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -195 Boston Bruins Play Title: 5 Units
Clemson vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 43.0/-110 Under Play Title: 5 Units
Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) - 7:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -175 Tampa Bay Lightning Play Title: 5 Units
New Jersey Devils vs. St. Louis Blues (NHL) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -167 St. Louis Blues Play Title: 5 Units
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-110 Houston Rockets Play Title: 5 Units
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.0/-109 Cincinnati Bengals Play Title: 5 Units
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 8:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 44.5/-110 Over Play Title: 5 Units
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers (NBA) - 10:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Dallas Mavericks Play Title: 5 Units
