Steve Merril - Steve's Screenshot (NFL) (Thursday 11/12)
Thursday, Nov. 12
NFL
Bills at Jets (-2.5, 41.5) (8:25 pm ET, NFLN)
My power ratings make the New York Jets a 1.5-point favorite over Buffalo, so there is no line value unless this game hits the key number of +3 or more. This game has a unique storyline with Bills head coach Rex Ryan returning to New York, so this game has to be quite important to him, plus he is familiar with many players on the New York roster. However, it is a tough scheduling situation for the Bills as they must travel for a road game on just three days of rest.
Buffalo is averaging 26.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 23.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. However, the Bills will face a New York defense that has been terrific at home where they are giving up only 19.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.
New York will play back-to-back home games for the first time this season. The Jets are averaging 25 points per game on 5.5 yards per play against defenses that allow 24.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play, so they’ve underperformed on offense this season. Buffalo’s defense is only allowing 20.3 points per game on 5.1 yards per play on the road this season, so New York’s offense has a touch match-up in this game tonight.