Service Plays Thursday 10/22/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF SHORT SHEET

Week 8

Thursday, 10/22/2009

FLORIDA ST at N CAROLINA, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
FLORIDA ST: 27-11 ATS off BB ATS losses
N CAROLINA: 12-26 ATS at home off non-conference game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF ADDITIONAL

Week 8

Trend Report

Thursday, October 22

8:00 PM
FLORIDA STATE vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Florida State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Florida State is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
North Carolina is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Florida State
North Carolina is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22

Game 303-304: Florida State at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 93.886; North Carolina 93.299
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1; 51
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Gold Sheet

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22
*NORTH CAROLINA 27 - Florida State 22—True, Tar Heels (just 111 ypg
rushing) can’t run a lick, which is a big reason why sputtering UNC attack produced just 22 total points in 3 of first 4 games vs. FBS foes. Still, 2-4 Florida State is fielding its weakest defense (allowing 427 ypg!) in recent memory, while athletic Heel stoppers (just 238 ypg) rank among nation’s top platoons. Won’t dismiss possibility of Seminoles rallying down stretch for beleaguered HC Bowden; just wouldn’t bet on it. CABLE TV—ESPN
DNP ...SR: Florida State 14-1-1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach

NORTH CAROLINA - 2 ½ over Florida St (Thur)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PROPHECY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

FLORIDA STATE over North Carolina

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northwest power plays

no play: Florida state 26 north carolina 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NELLY'S GREEN SHEET

NORTH CAROLINA (-2½) Florida State 7:00 PM

UNC has some of the best defensive numbers in the nation, allowing only 237 yards per
game. The Tar Heels have lost their last two FBS games however, currently sitting 0-2 in the
ACC despite being considered a contender. Florida State is actually 0-3 in conference play
and the Seminoles are just 2-4 overall with only one FBS win. That win was a shocking
blowout at BYU but this will be a tough road game as both teams are well rested. North
Carolina has only won S/U against Florida State once in school history, so though this line
may be close to even, UNC is still the underdog in the minds of the players. Florida State has
played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the offense has been far more
productive for the year. Florida State has been vulnerable to big plays on defense but North
Carolina has not been able to sustain drives let alone create a big plays. Against three major
conference opponents, North Carolina has scored a total of 22 points.

FLORIDA STATE BY 6

 

[Casher808]

LuckyDaySports

Thursday's Comp Play

MLB
Take the Under (8.5) in the MLB NY Yankees at LA Angels game

 

[Big Timer]

John Harrison
************

Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5
Flyers -1.5 +170

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

ALCS

N.Y. Yankees (6-1) at L.A. Angels (4-3)

Right-hander A.J. Burnett (13-9, 3.94 ERA) will try and pitch the Yankees to their first World Series appearance since 2003 when he goes up against Angels’ ace John Lackey (12-9, 3.66) in Game 5 of this best-of-7 ALCS at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Calif.

New York took a commanding 3-1 series lead on Tuesday when C.C. Sabathia dominated Los Angeles for the second time in this series, holding the Angels to one run on five hits over eight innings of a 10-1 rout. The Yankees got homers from Johnny Damon and postseason hero Alex Rodriguez, who also had a double, a single and a walk.

New York, which hasn’t won the World Series since 2000, is on impressive runs of 47-18 overall, 13-5 as an underdog, 5-1 against the A.L. West, 45-17 against right-handed starters and 10-4 as a road ’dog. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re still just 2-7 in their last nine road playoff contests.

Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall and are on additional positive surges of 7-2 at home, 35-16 on Thursdays, 10-1 as a favorite and 7-1 as a home favorite. However, L.A. has dropped 13 of its last 18 playoff games, including seven of 10 at home, and it is just 1-7 in its last eight ALCS contests. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.

The Yankees have won five of six in this rivalry, and they’re now 8-6 in 14 meetings this year. However, New York remains just 9-21 in its last 30 games at Angel Stadium (3-5 this year). In fact, the host is 17-5 in the last 22 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-4 this season).

These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.

Burnett pitched well in Game 2 of this series in New York, allowing two runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings as the Yankees won 4-3 in 13 innings. He’s now allowed two runs or less in six straight starts, and New York has won five straight times behind Burnett, including both playoff games by identical 4-3 scores in extra innings.

Burnett’s faced the Angels three times this season, allowing a combined eight runs on 18 hits over 19 innings (3.79 ERA). In his September start in Los Angeles, he gave up two runs over 5 2/3 innings of a 3-2 Yankees’ win, and he’s 8-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 17 road efforts this year. New York is on positive runs of 4-0 when Burnett faces a winning team and 4-1 when he gets four days off.

In Game 1 in New York, Lackey gave up four runs (two earned) on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of the 4-1 loss to the Yankees and Sabathia. Back in July, he faced the Yankees at home and gave up two runs over seven innings of a 5-4 victory. That came on the heels of a dominant 5-0 win over Boston in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing four hits in 7 1/3 scoreless innings.

With the win over the Red Sox, Lackey is 7-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 14 starts at Angel Stadium this year. Also, in regular-season action, Lackey is 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 career starts against New York.

New York is on “under” runs of 15-7-1 overall, 8-4 in playoff road games, 5-2-1 in playoff games overall, 5-3 in ALCS action and 16-6-1 after a victory, 9-2-1 in ALCS road games and 20-8-2 in Burnett’s last 30 starts. Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-18-1 overall, 9-5 in ALCS games, 20-7-2 as a favorite, 19-7-1 against right-handed starters and 35-16 when Lackey faces a team with a winning record.

In this rivalry, the under is 5-3 in the last eight meetings overall (2-2 in this ALCS), but the over is 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 4 and Game 5 soaring over the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Florida State (2-4, 1-4 ATS) at North Carolina (4-2, 1-3 ATS)

The Seminoles try to snap a rare three-game losing skid and get their first ACC victory of the season when they travel to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill for a nationally televised clash with North Carolina.

Florida is coming off a 49-44 home loss to Georgia Tech as a three-point favorite back on Oct. 10, and that came on the heels of upset losses to Boston College (28-21 on the road) and South Florida (17-7 at home). The three-game slide is the first for the Seminoles since November 2005, and they’ve given up 31.3 points and 433 yards per game (247.3 rushing ypg) during the slump. Against the Yellow Jackets two Saturdays ago, Florida State rolled up 539 yards, but allowed 532, including a whopping 401 rushing yards (7 yards per carry).

Including a season-opening 38-34 home loss to Miami as a six-point favorite, Florida State is 0-3 SU and ATS in ACC action.

North Carolina started ACC play with two blowout losses to Georgia Tech (24-7 as a three-point road underdog) and Virginia (16-3 as a 12-point home chalk). However, the Tar Heels got healthy against Division I-AA Georgia Southern on Oct. 10, rolling 42-12 in a non-lined home game. Against its four Division I-A foes, UNC has scored a total of just 53 points (13.3 ppg).

Florida State is 14-1-1 SU all-time against North Carolina, winning the last three in a row by scores of 40-14, 37-0 and 38-16, the latter being the most recent battle back in 2004. Despite the Seminoles’ on-field dominance of this rivalry, the Heels are 3-1 ATS in the last four, all as an underdog. However, the visitor has cashed in seven of the last nine battles.

Florida State rates a big edge on offense, putting up 29.8 points and 425.5 yards per contest, compared with 22.5 points and 282 total yards per game for the Tar Heels. However, North Carolina’s stop unit has been much stronger, yielding 14.2 points and 237.7 yards per outing (112.5 rushing ypg, 2.9 yards per carry), while the Seminoles are getting torched for 28.2 points and 428.2 ypg (172.7 rushing ypg, 4.6 ypc).

Christian Ponder has had a solid junior season under center for Florida State, completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 296.7 yards per game with nine TDs and just one INT. Meanwhile, UNC quarterback T.J. Yates is connecting at a 60.8 percent rate but for just 160.7 passing ypg with six TDs offset by seven INTs.

The Seminoles are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover. Otherwise, though, Bobby Bowden’s crew is in ATS declines of 1-4 in ACC play, 3-8 in October and 0-4-1 on Thursday. North Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven after a bye, but the Heels are also in pointspread ruts of 6-13 as a favorite, 3-7 when laying three points or less, 6-19 as a home chalk and 1-4 in ACC action.

Florida State is on a bevy of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 12-3 in October, 5-0 as an underdog and 5-1 against winning teams. The Tar Heels have topped the total in three of four at home and four of six as a home favorite, but the under is 4-1 in UNC’s last five after a bye and 3-1-1 in the last five in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

N. Carolina

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo, who lost with the Dodgers in the NLCS, off set much of that by shrewdly playing the Phillies last night.

Tonight, with the debt up slightly to 1,770 lumpes, he'll go with the Pie Guy to finish off the Angels. Ten units on Burnett and the Yanks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Tulsa (-7) Wednesday night.

Today it's Florida State. The surplus is 610 sirignanos

 

[RickyBobby]

Bob Valentino Thursday's 25 Dime ACC winner ...
25 DIME: FLORIDA STATE (on the money-line vs. North Carolina)

NOTE: This play is on the Seminoles to win OUTRIGHT. So the play is on the money line, not plus the points!


Paid & Confirmed By Me...

 

[RiteSide_Huey]

newsletters

Thank you CantPickaWinner for posting these plays. I wonder if you can post the GOLDSHEET plays for the Sunday and Monday night game with the scores prediction.

visit the newsletter thread!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL
MLB

NY Yankees at LA Angels
The Angels look to stay alive and build on their 5-0 record in John Lackey's last 5 starts at home with the total set between 7 and 8 1/2 runs. LA is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120)

Game 905-906: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.407; LA Angels (Lackey) 17.035
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL NHL

Boston at Philadelphia
The Flyers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 2-5 in its last 7 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Philadelphia is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160)

Game 51-52: NY Islanders at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.141; Montreal 10.989
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+165); Over

Game 53-54: New Jersey at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.332; NY Rangers 12.539
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under

Game 55-56: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.216; Philadelphia 12.026
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Over

Game 57-58: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.626; Atlanta 12.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Over

Game 59-60: Nashville at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.851; Ottawa 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-185); Over

Game 61-62: San Jose at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.764; Tampa Bay 11.107
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-140); Over

Game 63-64: Columbus at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.090; Edmonton 12.200
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 65-66: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.976; Phoenix 12.351
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Over

Game 67-68: Dallas at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.787; Los Angeles 11.840
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI
Season: 42-30 (.583)

MONTREAL 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
N.Y. RANGERS 3, New Jersey 2
Boston vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Washington vs. ATLANTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
OTTAWA 3, Nashville 2
San Jose 4, TAMPA BAY 3
Columbus vs. EDMONTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit vs. PHOENIX: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Dallas vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL


DCI
Atlantic Coast Conference
NORTH CAROLINA 25, Florida State 23