THE SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(21) Nebraska (3-1, 4-0 ATS) at (24) Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS)
The college football weekend kicks off with a key Big 12 North showdown, as Nebraska makes the trek to Faurot Field to battle the unbeaten Tigers.
The Cornhuskers rebounded from a heartbreaking, last-second 16-15 loss at Virginia Tech with a 55-0 whitewash of Louisiana-Lafayette on Sept. 26, easily cashing as a 30-point home chalk, the team’s fifth-consecutive spread-cover. In its three non-conference home wins – all against Sun Belt conference squads Florida International, Arkansas State and UL-Lafayette – Nebraska outscored its opponents by a combined 142-12 and outgained them by a total of 558 yards. However, against its toughest opponent to date, the Huskers managed just five field goals at Virginia Tech.
Despite losing several key starters from the last two Big 12 North championship teams, including record-setting QB Chase Daniel and electrifying receiver/kick returner Jeremy Maclin, the Tigers haven’t missed a beat. They ripped through their non-conference schedule, posting three double-digit wins (37-9 over Illinois, 52-12 over Furman, 31-21 over Nevada), as well as a narrow 27-20 victory over Bowling Green. Missouri had the yardage edge in all four victories, with net total offensive gain of 405 yards.
Missouri stomped on Nebraska on its way to the last two Big 12 North titles, rolling 41-6 as a 6½-point home favorite in 2007 and 52-17 as a 10-point road chalk last year. The Tigers’ victory in Lincoln last season ended a six-year SU and ATS run by the home team in this rivalry, with Missouri going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in Columbia. The favorite has gotten the money in the last three battles, and the SU winner is 8-0 ATS in the past eight head-to-head clashes.
Nebraska QB Zac Lee is off to a strong junior season, completing 64.8 percent of his throws for 928 yards with seven TDs and three INTs. However, Mizzou sophomore Blaine Gabbert has been even better, connecting on 66.4 percent of his passes for 1,161 yards with 11 TDs and no interceptions in 131 pass attempts, and he also has 80 rushing yards and two scores. Last year, as Daniel’s backup, Gabbert threw just 13 passes.
The Huskers have the rushing advantage on both sides of the ball, gaining 183.8 yards per game on the ground (5.7 per carry) and allowing 115.2 rushing ypg (3.2 per carry). That includes a 207-86 rushing edge in the loss at Virginia Tech. Missouri grinds out 143 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry) and surrenders 133.8 ypg (3.7 per carry), and that includes getting outgained 218-78 on the ground in its 31-21 win at Nevada two weeks ago.
In addition to its 5-0 ATS run overall, Nebraska has cashed in seven of its last eight and is on additional pointspread streaks of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 on Thursday, 5-1 as a favorite and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Tigers are in ATS slumps of 0-4 at home, 1-6 after a spread-cover, 0-4 versus winning teams and 2-6 after a bye.
The over is 4-0 in Nebraska’s last four Big 12 games and 4-0 in its last four after a bye week, while Missouri has topped the total in 11 of 15 as an underdog and four of five as a home pup. Conversely, the under is on runs of 4-1 for the Huskers overall, 7-1 for the Huskers in October, 8-2 for the Huskers when playing on grass, 4-0 for Mizzou overall, 6-1 for Mizzou at home and 7-0 for Mizzou after an ATS triumph.
Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA
NLDS
Colorado (0-1) at Philadelphia (1-0)
The Phillies look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-5 series with the Rockies when they send last year’s postseason hero Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA) to the Citizens Bank Park mound, while Colorado counters with Aaron Cook (11-6, 4.16).
Philadelphia got a dominating complete-game performance from Cliff Lee in Game 1 on Wednesday, rolling to a 5-1 victory. Since getting swept in the 2007 NLDS by the Rockies, the Phillies have owned Colorado, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings overall – all decided by multiple runs – including six of the last seven in the City of Brotherly Love.
Colorado is still on positive runs of 5-2 as an underdog, 6-2 against the N.L. East and 11-5 on Thursday. However, the Rockies were swept in the 2007 World Series by the Red Sox, so they’ve now lost five straight playoff games. Jim Tracy’s troops are on additional slides of 5-11 on the road, 4-11 against teams with a winning record and 1-7 on the road against left-handed starters.
The Phillies won the N.L. East by six games over the Marlins and they’re on a plethora of positive streaks, including 33-13 at home, 8-1 against the N.L. West, 9-4 on Thursday, 7-1 in postseason action, 8-0 in home playoff games and 4-1 in the divisional playoffs.
After three straight poor starts to begin August, Cook went on the disabled list for more than a month with an arm injury. He returned in time to make two starts down the stretch, allowing a combined one run (on a home run) and eight hits with one walk in 13 innings, as Colorado defeated the Cardinals 2-1 and the Brewers 9-2, both at home. The Rockies are 11-5 in Cook’s last 16 starts overall, 6-2 in his last eight on the road and 5-1 in his last six on Thursday.
Cook went just 6-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 road starts in his career, and he’s 1-5 with a 5.85 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Phillies (1-1, 3.75 ERA in two starts at Citizens Bank Park. He faced Philadelphia twice this season – at home in April, on the road in August – and gave up three runs in each start, pitching six innings at home and five innings in Philly.
Hamels struggled down the stretch, going 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA in his final three starts (all Phillies losses), and he went just 3-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 12 starts after Aug. 1. Last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP went 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 17 home outings this season, but in his final two tune-up starts (both at Citizens Bank), he squandered nine runs in 9 2/3 innings, with the Phillies losing 8-2 to Houston and 4-3 to Florida.
Hamels made his 2009 debut in Colorado back on April 10 – his first career start in Coors Field – and got bombed, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-3 loss. His only other start against the Rockies came in Game 1 of the NLDS in 2007, and the San Diego native yielded three runs in 6 2/3 innings, losing 4-2.
Cook’s postseason experience is limited to a single World Series start in 2007 against Boston, and he took the 4-3 loss in the deciding Game 4 after allowing three runs on six hits in six innings. Meanwhile, Hamels was brilliant last year in the playoffs, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts.
The “over” is 4-2-1 in the Rockies’ last seven overall, 13-5-1 in Cook’s last 19 road starts, 6-2-1 in Cook’s last nine outings vs. the N.L. East and 5-1-1 in Cook’s last seven on Thursday. However, the under is 3-1-1 in Colorado’s last five on the highway, 7-3 in its last 10 playoff contests and 4-1 in its last five playoff roadies.
The Phillies are on “over” streaks of 12-4-1 overall, 8-2-1 against right-handed starters and 9-2-1 as a favorite, but the “under” for the team is on stretches of 12-5-1 at home, 4-0 against the N.L. West, 5-1-1 in the postseason, 5-2-1 in home playoff games and 6-0 in the divisional series. Also, with Hamels on the mound, the under is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 12-3-1 on Thursday.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in eight of 12 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, but four of the last five meetings at Citizens Bank Park have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
St. Louis (0-1) at L.A. Dodgers (1-0)
The Cardinals send 19-game winner Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA) to the hill at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles opposite lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) as St. Louis tries to even this best-of-5 NLDS.
The Dodgers scored a 5-3 upset win over St. Louis in Game 1 on Wednesday in a game that featured a postseason-record 30 runners left on base. Matt Kemp belted a two-run, first-inning homer for Los Angeles and closer Jonathan Broxton got a four-out save to secure the victory.
Even with the Game 1 loss, St. Louis has taken five of the eight series matchups with the Dodgers this season and has gone 11-5 in the last 16. Going back further, the Cardinals are 10-5 in their last 15 trips to Dodger Stadium and 36-17 in the last 53 meetings overall.
The Cardinals struggled in the final week of the season, going 1-6 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 1-4 as a road favorite, costing them a shot at the National League’s best record and home-field advantage in the first two rounds. However, St. Louis still finished the regular season on runs of 14-6 against left-handed starters, 16-6 against N.L. West teams. Also, despite last night’s setback, the Cardinals are still on playoff runs of 5-2 overall, 17-6 in the division series and 4-1 in NLDS road affairs.
The Dodgers, who won their second straight division championship this year and also have home-field advantage throughout the N.L. playoffs, are on positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-3 against right-handed starters and 6-1 as an underdog.
Wainwright was an amazing 12-1 on the road this season with a 3.39 ERA and the Cardinals won 14 of his 15 road starts. He did struggle a bit down the stretch, as St. Louis lost three of his last four outings, including Friday’s 12-6 home loss to the Brewers when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Wainwright allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and in his last roadie he gave up three runs (two earned) in eight innings of a 6-3 win in Colorado.
Wainwright beat the Dodgers twice this season, allowing a combined two runs in 15 innings, including a 3-2 win in Southern California against Kershaw on Aug. 19. In five career starts against Los Angeles, he is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work. Additionally, St. Louis is on several positive streaks with Wainwright on the hill, including 37-15 overall, 20-6 when he starts on the road, 15-7 after five days of rest, 5-1 on Thursdays and 4-0 against N.L. West opposition.
Kershaw was just 3-4 at home this season despite a sparkling 1.83 ERA. On Saturday, he turned in a gem in the N.L. West-clinching 5-0 win over the Rockies, scattering three hits over six innings, striking out 10 and walking three, but he failed to get a decision. The 20-year-old lefty didn’t allow more than two runs in a game in any of his last six starts, however the Dodgers were just 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall going back to July 24.
In his Aug. 18 start against the Cardinals, Kershaw allowed two runs on five hits but walked four and threw 97 pitches in 3 2/3 innings in the 3-2 home loss. Three weeks earlier on July 29 in St. Louis, he pitched eight innings of shutout ball but the Dodgers still lost 3-2. In four career starts against the Cards, Kershaw is 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. In addition to losing nine of Kershaw’s last 11 starts overall, the Dodgers are on slides behind the youngster of 1-5 at home, 1-4 against the N.L. Central and 1-5 when he gets four days off. s
With Wainwright on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-1 on Thursdays and 5-2-1 on the road. As a team, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 20-9 in playoff road games, 20-9-2 against southpaws, 6-3 against the N.L. West and 60-25-1 in Thursday contests.
The Dodgers are on several “under” runs with Kershaw on the bump, including 6-1 overall, 5-1 on Thursdays, 5-2 at home and 16-5-1 against teams with winning records. However, Los Angeles is also on “over” streaks of 8-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 at home and 7-1-1 against right-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the under is 9-5 overall dating to the start of 2008, including 5-2 in Southern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
ALDS
Boston (95-67) at L.A. Angels (97-65)
The Angels and Red Sox finally return to the field for Game 1 of their American League Divisional Series, with veteran John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA) taking the ball for the home team against Boston’s Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41).
This is the third straight year and the fourth time since 2004 that the Red Sox and Angels have faced off in an opening-round playoff series, and Boston has come out on top each time, winning nine of the 10 contests. Last year, the Red Sox won the best-of-5 series in four games, including winning the first two contests at Angel Stadium by scores of 4-1 and 7-5. Lester got the best of Lackey in Games 1 and 4 last season.
This year, the Angels won the season series from Boston 5-4, going 4-2 in Anaheim, and since the start of 2008, Los Angeles is 14-4 in regular-season play versus the Sox (7-2 at Angel Stadium).
Both teams have been idle since finishing the regular season with victories on Sunday, the Red Sox defeating Cleveland 12-7 and the Angels topping the A’s 5-3. Boston followed up a six-game losing skid – matching its longest slide of the season – by sweeping the season-ending four-game home series from the Indians by the combined score of 32-15. Meanwhile, despite having nothing to play for, the Angels won seven of their final eight games, including sweeping the three-game series in Oakland.
The Red Sox, who won the A.L. wild-card by eight games over Texas, are on positive streaks of 9-4 as a favorite, 13-5 as a road favorite, 21-8 versus right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory and 39-17 on Thursday. Also, in postseason action, Terry Francona’s club is on surges of 13-5 overall, 7-2 on the road, 6-1 in divisional contests (all against the Angels) and 6-2 in divisional road games (4-0 in Anaheim).
Los Angeles won its third straight A.L. West title by going 51-28 from July 10 on, and Mike Scioscia’s squad went 49-32 in Anaheim this season (4-1 in the last four) and carries further positive trends of 22-6 as a home underdog, 8-3 after an off day, 46-21 after a victory, 35-17 on Thursday and 35-17 versus southpaw starters. However, the Halos have lost 10 of their last 11 playoff contests (nine of 10 to Boston) and six straight home playoff games, and they’re 1-5 in their last six as a playoff pup.
Lester’s final regular-season start was a 3-0 gem a week ago against Cleveland, as he allowed two hits and a walk over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. The southpaw from Washington was 11-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 21 starts after June 1, with the Red Sox going 16-5. In fact, with Lester on the bump, Boston is on several hot streaks, including 40-17 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 against the A.L. West, 47-15 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road ‘dog and 5-1 on Thursday.
Lester went 8-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 18 road starts this year, giving up three earned runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 outings on the highway. He did not face the Angels this season, but last year in the playoffs, he guided Boston to wins in Game 1 (road) and Game 4 (home), allowing one unearned run on 10 hits over 14 innings with 11 strikeouts against three walks. However, in four regular-season meetings with Los Angeles from 2006-2008, Lester allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 19 2/3 innings (7.78 ERA).
Lackey missed the first six weeks of the regular season with a shoulder injury and after a slow start, he went 10-5 with a 3.12 ERA in his final 19 starts, allowing two earned runs or less in 13 of those contests. However, the big right-hander limped to the finish line a bit, going 2-1 with 4.91 ERA in his final three regular-season outings. Lackey was 6-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 13 home starts in 2009.
The Angels are 3-14 all-time when Lackey faces Boston (0-3 in the playoffs), with the Texas native going 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 14 regular-season starts versus the Red Sox. In one start this season in mid-September, Lackey was a tough-luck 4-1 loser at Fenway Park, giving up three runs (two earned) in 7 2/3 innings.
For his career, Lester is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in seven playoff appearances (five starts) covering 36 innings). Meanwhile, Lackey – who pitched the Angels to a Game 7 win in the 2002 World Series – is 2-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 postseason games (nine starts), but 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA in three playoff starts versus Boston.
Behind Lester, Boston is on “over” runs of 5-1 on the road (all as a favorite) and 4-1-1 against the A.L. West, but the under is 11-4-3 the last 18 times Lester has opened a series. As a team, the Red Sox sport “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 10-2 as a favorite, 6-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 against right-handed starters, 16-5 in series openers and 5-1-2 in opening-round playoff road games.
The over is 7-3 in Lackey’s last 10 home outings and 4-1 in his last five as a home ‘dog, and four of L.A.’s last five home playoff games have topped the total. Otherwise, though, the Angels are on “under” stretches of 23-7-1 overall, 5-1 as a ‘dog, 8-1 in series openers, 6-1 at home versus lefty starters, 5-2-2 in divisional playoff contests, 13-5 against winning teams and 5-2 when facing A.L. East squads. Also, Lackey’s last four starts versus Boston have stayed low, as have Lester’s last three versus Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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