THE SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Colorado (1-2 SU and ATS) at West Virginia (2-1, 1-1 ATS)
Colorado looks to notch its second straight win when it travels to Morgantown, W.Va., for a non-conference clash with the Mountaineers, who will try to avenge last year’s disappointing loss in Boulder.
After suffering consecutive embarrassing losses to start the season – 23-17 to Colorado State at home; 54-38 at Toledo – the Buffaloes finally got in the win column with a 24-0 rout of Wyoming as a seven-point home chalk on Sept. 19. Colorado managed just 326 yards in the win, but it held Wyoming to 230 as it snapped a four-game SU losing skid that dated to last season.
On the same day Colorado ended its slide, West Virginia had its four-game winning streak halted in a 41-30 loss at Auburn as a seven-point underdog. The Mountaineers had a whopping 509-400 edge in total offense, but they committed six turnovers, including five interceptions (four of which were thrown by starting QB Jarrett Brown). West Virginia has committed 10 turnovers in its last two games.
The Buffaloes stole a 17-14 overtime victory over West Virginia last year on a Thursday night, cashing as a 2½-point home underdog. The Mountaineers rushed for 311 yards, but QB Pat White passed for just 43 yards (10-for-14) and West Virginia’s offense went a combined 3-for-15 on third and fourth downs. Colorado RB Rodney Stewart rushed for 166 yards in the victory, but he has just 165 yards on 38 carries (2 TDs) this season.
Colorado’s pedestrian offense is managing just 26.3 points and 342.7 yards per game (91.7 rushing ypg), with QB Cody Hawkins – son of coach Dan Hawkins – connecting on a meager 53 percent of his passes for 753 yards with five TDs offset by four INTs. Meanwhile the defense is yielding 25.7 points but 410 yards per outing (183 rushing ypg). Prior to the win over Wyoming, the Buffs had been outgained by more than 115 yards in four straight contests (all losses).
The Mountaineers, who have scored between 30-35 points in four straight games going back to a bowl victory over North Carolina last December, are averaging 32.7 points and 485.3 yards this season (192.3 rushing ypg, 5.2 yards per carry). The multidimensional Brown has thrown as many picks (five) as touchdowns, but he’s completing 68.5 percent of his throws for 789 yards, and he also has 208 rushing yards (5.5 ypc) and one TD on the ground. Defensively, West Virginia is yielding 27 points and 312 yards per outing, including just 83.7 rushing ypg (2.7 ypc).
Despite easily cashing against Wyoming, Colorado is still on a slew of ATS slides, including 3-9 overall, 1-5 on the road, 8-20 as a ‘dog, 2-11 as a road underdog, 0-4 in October and 2-6 against winning teams. West Virginia has failed to cover in four of five overall, nine of 13 against teams with a losing record and five of seven when laying double digits.
The Buffaloes are on “under” runs of 12-4 in non-conference play, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-1 in October and 5-2 when playing on artificial turf. The under is also 4-1 in West Virginia’s last five October contests, but otherwise the Mountaineers are on “over” streaks of 7-2 overall, 6-2 as a favorite, 7-2 after a bye week and 6-2 on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Southern Miss (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at UAB (1-3 SU and ATS)
Five days after seeing its eight-game winning streak end with a loss at Kansas, Southern Miss hits the road again, this time traveling to Birmingham, Ala., for a Conference USA clash with UAB.
The Golden Eagles played 20th-ranked Kansas tough all day long Saturday, but still came up short 35-28, covering as a 13-point road underdog. Southern Miss gave up the winning touchdown 45 seconds into the fourth quarter and couldn’t find the end zone thereafter. The Eagles put up 28 points and 395 yards (331 passing) despite having the ball for less than 24 minutes.
Southern Miss will be without two key offensive components, as RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown won’t play because of injury.
Since routing Rice 44-24 as a six-point home favorite in its season opener on Sept. 5, UAB has dropped three in a row SU and ATS. The Blazers’ worst performance during the slump came Saturday at Texas A&M, where they got pummeled 56-19 as a 14-point road underdog, getting outgained 544-303.
These teams have met every year this decade, and the Golden Eagles are a perfect 9-0 SU and 5-4 ATS, cashing in five of the last six meetings. Last year, Southern Miss crushed the Blazers 70-7 as a 7½-point home favorite, and they’ve won the last two meetings by the combined score of 107-21, outgaining UAB by 599 combined yards.
QB Austin Davis (28-for-42, 331 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT at Kansas) has eight TD passes against just the one interception, and he leads an explosive Southern Miss offense that nets 35.8 points and 444.8 total yards per game (236.8 passing, 208 rushing). The Eagles have scored at least 26 points in six straight games. However, the defense, after yielding a total of 19 points in the first two contests, has surrendered 34 and 35 points in the last two outings.
UAB is averaging 27.5 points and 388 yards per game, but almost all of the production has come on the ground (230.5 rushing ypg, 6.4 ypc). QB Joe Webb is completing just 54.7 percent of his passes for an average of 155.3 yards per game with five TDs and five INTs. The Blazers’ defense has been awful, allowing 35.5 points and 480.8 yards per effort (327.2 passing ypg).
Southern Miss is on ATS rolls of 6-2 overall, 9-2 on the road, 9-2 as a road favorite and 4-1 in Conference USA action, but the Eagles have come up short against the number in five straight October contests and five of seven on Thursday. UAB is 3-9-2 ATS in its last 14 October contests, but otherwise is on ATS runs of 4-1 in conference action and 5-2 versus teams with a winning record.
The over is 4-0 in the Eagles’ last four on Thursday, 4-1 in their last five after an outright loss and 5-2-1 in UAB’s last eight on artificial turf. However, the under is on runs of 4-0 for Southern Miss in Conference USA games and 7-1 for UAB in October. Finally, three of the last four in this series have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN MISS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (82-75) at Detroit (85-73)
Scott Baker (14-9, 4.48 ERA) will try to keep the Twins’ playoff hopes alive when he opposes Tigers lefty Nate Robertson (2-2, 5.56) in the finale of a four-game series at Comerica Park.
These teams split a doubleheader Tuesday, then Detroit came back Wednesday and rolled to a 7-2 victory to push its A.L. Central lead to three games over Minnesota. Detroit can wrap up the division crown with a victory today.
The Twins have used a 12-4 surge to climb back into the playoff race, and they’re on additional runs of 6-3 on the road, 6-1 against left-handed starters and 17-7 in A.L. Central games. On the downside, Ron Gardenhire’s club has lost six straight games on Thursday and seven of eight in the fourth game of a series, and it is 16-38 in its last 54 road contests versus southpaw starters.
Detroit has followed a 3-9 slump by winning seven of its last 10 to keep the Twins at arm’s length. Jim Leyland’s squad is 35-16 in its last 51 home games.
Despite losing the last two games, the Twins remain 10-7 against Detroit this season, with the host taking 12 of the 17 meetings.
Baker has surrendered four runs in each of his last two starts over a total of 11 innings (6.55 ERA), losing 6-2 to the Tigers at home followed by Saturday’s 11-6 win at Kansas City. The good news is the right-hander hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his last nine starts, with the Twins going 7-2. Additionally, with Baker hurling, Minnesota is on runs of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 on Thursday, 9-2 against the A.L. Central and 9-4 versus teams with a winning record.
Baker is 8-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 15 road starts this year, 4-4 with a 5.65 ERA in day games and he’s 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 15 career starts against Detroit. However, in three games this year against the Tigers, Baker is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA (15 runs allowed in 15 innings), with Minnesota losing the last two (8-7 on the road; 6-2 at home).
Robertson has pitched just 43 2/3 innings in 27 appearances this year, including only five starts, all since Aug. 29. In those five starts, the veteran southpaw is 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA. On Saturday, he squandered five runs (four earned) in 3 1/3 innings at the White Sox, but the Tigers cruised to a 12-5 victory. Prior to that, he beat Baker in Minnesota 6-2, allowing two runs in five innings, yet he’s still just 9-10 with a 4.21 ERA in 25 career appearances (23 starts) versus the Twins.
The Tigers are on a slew of negative runs behind Robertson, including 1-5 at home, 12-26 when he pitches on four days’ rest, 15-41 when he faces an opponent with a winning record and 3-6 against Minnesota. This year at Comerica, Robertson is 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA in 12 appearances (three starts).
The under is 5-1-2 in Baker’s last seven starts overall, but the over is 16-6-1 in his last 23 divisional starts, including 5-1 in his last six starts against the Tigers. Also, the over is 9-2 in Robertson’s last 11 against A.L. Central rivals, 4-1 in his last five outings versus Minnesota and 7-2-2 in his last 11 home outings against the Twins.
As a team, Minnesota is on “under” runs of 20-7-5 overall and 6-1-2 versus winning teams, though the Twins are 5-2-1 “over” in their last eight on the road (all within the division). Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 5-2-1 overall (all against the A.L. Central), 7-2-1 at home, 4-1 on Thursday and 7-3-2 against right-handed starters.
Finally, the under is 3-1-2 in the last six meetings overall, but the over is 4-1-1 in the last six series clashes at Comerica Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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