PLAYERS ADVANTAGE 10* NFLX TOTAL - Over Bengals vs. Rams - Aug 27
Scott Rickenbach’s NFL Preseason 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati vs St Louis @ 7:30 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays now range from 6* on up to 10* so this will include 7* and 8* picks as well. 6* will be the most common play rating with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays will be rare but, of course, are even a step above a 9* Top Play!
The fact that this total came down from a 35 to a 34 as of Wednesday should not come as a surprise. We certainly understand what bettors are looking at here. However, that doesn’t mean that we don’t see things differently and, when we do (and we get extra line value like this) it’s absolutely time to step up our rating and we love the way this low total has arrived. The Bengals are coming off of a 7-6 game at New England. That certainly had a lot do with the opening number of 35 posted on this game. We’ll grab the value! Yes, the teams combined for just 13 points but the Patriots played a very sloppy game offensively and neither team did a good job of cashing in their opportunities. Each team had over 335 yards of offense and yet there was only one touchdown in the entire game. That leads to value here.
The Bengals can, and will, move the ball tonight. Yes, we’re well aware of the fact that Carson Palmer is out tonight but we also know that J.T. O’Sullivan threw for 141 yards and completed 10 of 13 passes. Additionally, we also know that the Bengals ran for 173 yards last week and the Rams ground game defense has been atrocious so far in the preseason! The Rams gave up 162 yards to the Falcons in last week’s loss and, yes, their game stayed under the total…another reason we’re getting line value here. Even though St Louis only scored 13 points last week versus Atlanta, they did complete 20 of 33 passes and, yes, that was without QB Bulger and WR Avery. Note that both of the Rams turnovers came inside the Falcons red zone so they easily could have scored more than the 13 points they managed last week. As for Week One of the preseason, the Rams won 23-20 at New York as their game with the Jets easily eclipsed the posted total of 33. St Louis completed 15 of 23 passes in that game and they also ran for 193 yards. This Rams team can move the football quite well and they will prove that again tonight. The problem for St Louis has been stopping the opposition. They’ve allowed 20 points in each of their first two games and they’ve allowed their opponents to convert 11 of 23 third down situations.
You know that both teams will be looking to score early and often here too. The Bengals, despite moving the ball quite well, have managed just 7 points in each of their two games this preseason. As for the Rams, they’re looking for production out of their first-team offense, even without Bulger. The TD’s for the Rams in the preseason have not come with the first unit in. The point is that the Rams and Bengals are both emphasizing offensive production in this match-up. As is typically the case in the Preseason, this is the final “dress rehearsal” for the regular season as many starters don’t even play in the Week 4 games. That means this is “it” for many of the starters and this is the game they play long and hard. That said, with both units putting the emphasis on offensive production in this one, we foresee a game that should get over this low total before the fourth quarter! The Bengals have moved the ball well in the preseason, (725 yards) but they just don’t have the points to show for it. In their first home game of the preseason, and in ideal weather conditions with light winds, look for a big night of offensive production for Cincy but the Rams should score right along with them as they rolled up 23 points in their first preseason road game and QB Bulger was only on the field for 3 of those! QB injuries and last week’s lower scores are getting too much emphasis here, this one should feature plenty of scoring. Grab the value. Play OVER the total in Cincinnati as a 10* Top Play selection for Thursday night!
Scott Rickenbach’s NFL Preseason 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati vs St Louis @ 7:30 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays now range from 6* on up to 10* so this will include 7* and 8* picks as well. 6* will be the most common play rating with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays will be rare but, of course, are even a step above a 9* Top Play!
The fact that this total came down from a 35 to a 34 as of Wednesday should not come as a surprise. We certainly understand what bettors are looking at here. However, that doesn’t mean that we don’t see things differently and, when we do (and we get extra line value like this) it’s absolutely time to step up our rating and we love the way this low total has arrived. The Bengals are coming off of a 7-6 game at New England. That certainly had a lot do with the opening number of 35 posted on this game. We’ll grab the value! Yes, the teams combined for just 13 points but the Patriots played a very sloppy game offensively and neither team did a good job of cashing in their opportunities. Each team had over 335 yards of offense and yet there was only one touchdown in the entire game. That leads to value here.
The Bengals can, and will, move the ball tonight. Yes, we’re well aware of the fact that Carson Palmer is out tonight but we also know that J.T. O’Sullivan threw for 141 yards and completed 10 of 13 passes. Additionally, we also know that the Bengals ran for 173 yards last week and the Rams ground game defense has been atrocious so far in the preseason! The Rams gave up 162 yards to the Falcons in last week’s loss and, yes, their game stayed under the total…another reason we’re getting line value here. Even though St Louis only scored 13 points last week versus Atlanta, they did complete 20 of 33 passes and, yes, that was without QB Bulger and WR Avery. Note that both of the Rams turnovers came inside the Falcons red zone so they easily could have scored more than the 13 points they managed last week. As for Week One of the preseason, the Rams won 23-20 at New York as their game with the Jets easily eclipsed the posted total of 33. St Louis completed 15 of 23 passes in that game and they also ran for 193 yards. This Rams team can move the football quite well and they will prove that again tonight. The problem for St Louis has been stopping the opposition. They’ve allowed 20 points in each of their first two games and they’ve allowed their opponents to convert 11 of 23 third down situations.
You know that both teams will be looking to score early and often here too. The Bengals, despite moving the ball quite well, have managed just 7 points in each of their two games this preseason. As for the Rams, they’re looking for production out of their first-team offense, even without Bulger. The TD’s for the Rams in the preseason have not come with the first unit in. The point is that the Rams and Bengals are both emphasizing offensive production in this match-up. As is typically the case in the Preseason, this is the final “dress rehearsal” for the regular season as many starters don’t even play in the Week 4 games. That means this is “it” for many of the starters and this is the game they play long and hard. That said, with both units putting the emphasis on offensive production in this one, we foresee a game that should get over this low total before the fourth quarter! The Bengals have moved the ball well in the preseason, (725 yards) but they just don’t have the points to show for it. In their first home game of the preseason, and in ideal weather conditions with light winds, look for a big night of offensive production for Cincy but the Rams should score right along with them as they rolled up 23 points in their first preseason road game and QB Bulger was only on the field for 3 of those! QB injuries and last week’s lower scores are getting too much emphasis here, this one should feature plenty of scoring. Grab the value. Play OVER the total in Cincinnati as a 10* Top Play selection for Thursday night!
Nelly's THURSDAY NFL TOTAL (Under - Stl/Cin) - Aug. 27
Nelly's Pick 'UNDER' #253/254 St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals 7:30 PM ET
The Rams look like a team that could surprise a bit this season as Coach Steve Spagnuolo hopes to copy the model that brought first year coaches in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami playoff berths last season. Starting QB Marc Bulger is unlikely to play this week with a finger injury leaving significant time for the battle for the #3 spot as Keith Null and Brock Berlin will likely get most of the playing time after a few series from back-up Kyle Boller. Those three QBs combined for just 68 yards in the preseason win over the Jets. Cincinnati starter Carson Palmer will be out for this game and not be left vulnerable given his injury history and the bulk of the reps will go to J.T. O'Sullivan and Carson's brother Jordan Palmer. That means the majority of this game will be played by QBs with very little real game experience and neither offense should expect significant points on the board. The Bengals scored just seven points despite 379 net yards on offense in the preseason opener and that time of scoring inefficiency has been common for the Bengals. The 'under' is actually 9-3 since '03 in preseason games in Cincinnati. The late injury report looks problematic for both offenses and this game could be a serious grind for both teams with the starting defenses expected to play deeper into the game and both starting QBs sitting out tonight. Potential rain and wind could also slow things down a bit.
Nelly's Pick 'UNDER' #253/254 St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals 7:30 PM ET
The Rams look like a team that could surprise a bit this season as Coach Steve Spagnuolo hopes to copy the model that brought first year coaches in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami playoff berths last season. Starting QB Marc Bulger is unlikely to play this week with a finger injury leaving significant time for the battle for the #3 spot as Keith Null and Brock Berlin will likely get most of the playing time after a few series from back-up Kyle Boller. Those three QBs combined for just 68 yards in the preseason win over the Jets. Cincinnati starter Carson Palmer will be out for this game and not be left vulnerable given his injury history and the bulk of the reps will go to J.T. O'Sullivan and Carson's brother Jordan Palmer. That means the majority of this game will be played by QBs with very little real game experience and neither offense should expect significant points on the board. The Bengals scored just seven points despite 379 net yards on offense in the preseason opener and that time of scoring inefficiency has been common for the Bengals. The 'under' is actually 9-3 since '03 in preseason games in Cincinnati. The late injury report looks problematic for both offenses and this game could be a serious grind for both teams with the starting defenses expected to play deeper into the game and both starting QBs sitting out tonight. Potential rain and wind could also slow things down a bit.
Mr East
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 units: Miami Dolphins +2.5 POD
The Miami Dolphins have won their first 2 NFLX games, both at home. We now head to week 3 where the starters make a dress rehersal for the regular season, and all get the most minutes they will get in any game of the NFLX. Some coaches view these games as meaningless, and don't care, Tony Sparano is not one of them, and has even been quoted as saying, if they keep score, I'm gonna try and win. He has done just that since taking over the helm with the Dolphins as his teams are 5-1 under his leadership in NFLX play. There is also a system I have that dates back 12 years that shows teams in the situation Miami is in here, have covered at a rate of 71% ATS in one system, 34-21 in another, 20-7 in another, 16-4 in another, and a perfect 13-0 in yet another. Tampa Bay fits a system that is just 43% winners over 200 games, over the last 12 years as well. Week 3 is when teams come to play, and teams that had a better record the year before, as an underdog in week 3 have historically covered 58% of the time. I will go with Miami in this one.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 units: Miami Dolphins +2.5 POD
The Miami Dolphins have won their first 2 NFLX games, both at home. We now head to week 3 where the starters make a dress rehersal for the regular season, and all get the most minutes they will get in any game of the NFLX. Some coaches view these games as meaningless, and don't care, Tony Sparano is not one of them, and has even been quoted as saying, if they keep score, I'm gonna try and win. He has done just that since taking over the helm with the Dolphins as his teams are 5-1 under his leadership in NFLX play. There is also a system I have that dates back 12 years that shows teams in the situation Miami is in here, have covered at a rate of 71% ATS in one system, 34-21 in another, 20-7 in another, 16-4 in another, and a perfect 13-0 in yet another. Tampa Bay fits a system that is just 43% winners over 200 games, over the last 12 years as well. Week 3 is when teams come to play, and teams that had a better record the year before, as an underdog in week 3 have historically covered 58% of the time. I will go with Miami in this one.
We Cover Spreads
1* Rams +2.5
As many people know week 3 in preseason in considered a "dress rehearsal" for NFL teams and considered to be the closest pace to a regular season game. Bengals Coach Marvin Lewis has said he doesn't feel this is a "dress rehearsal" for his team and starting running back Cedric Benson agreed with his head coach. It shows because Lewis is just 1-4 ATS in "dress rehearsal" a.k.a. week 3 of preseason games. He said he's not one of these guys that says his starters have to play into the third quarter of the third preseason game, and it will be much more like the New England game as far as the rotation. We don't want to lay any points with a coach or players with that attitude coming into this game.
Both Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger will be out in this game and we have to give the edge to the Rams as far as the QB rotation goes. The starters will play most of the first half in this game for the Bengals. J.T. O'Sullivan will get the start again at QB and Coach Lewis has said that Jordan Palmer will see increased playing time this week. The Rams will be play starters the whole first half and Spagnuolo says he may even play them in some of the second half depending on what the total plays are at that point in the game. Don't expect to see Steven Jackson get more than five carries and back up Kenneth Darby isn't expected to play. So we will see Antonio Pittman(51 yards 5.6 YPC) and Samkon Gado(105 yards 9.5 YPC 1 TD) to expect a lot of reps.
J.T. O'Sullivan for the Bengals has had a solid preseason putting up 241 yards and 2 TD's so far. The Rams will let Kyle Boller get the start who played decent and was 9/16 for 91 yards last week filling in for Bulger. A slight edge here goes to O'Sullivan who has better play makers surrounding him but once the second half comes around it's a whole different story.
The second half rotation edge is huge for the Rams in this game. Jordan Palmer has yet to lead his offense to put up any points in the preseason when he is under center. As a matter of fact the Bengals haven't scored any second half points in the preseason yet. Last week against the Patriots backups he was 2/7 for 45 yards passing. The Rams have two guys battling for the final QB roster spot in Keith Null and Brock Berlin who have both impressed us this preseason; Berlin 98 yds 1 TD/0 Int 68.7% and Keith Null 72 yds 1TD /1 INT 72.7% . They should be giving it their all this week to prove why they deserve a job as the 3rd string QB on this team.
The 20-13 loss for St.Louis last week against Atlanta is a little deceiving. The Matt Ryan led Falcons first string offense looked in regular season form going on 2 long drives putting up an easy 14 points. Once the second and third string players came in for both squads the Rams outscored them 13-6; now keep in mind the Bengals 2nd and 3rd string players have yet to put up any points so far in preseason as we said earlier.
The Rams have outscored opponents 24-16 in the 2nd half of preseason games while the Bengals have been outscored 10-0 in the final 30 minutes of their 2 preseason games. Also remember the Patriots who the Bengals beat last week 7-6 have a very shaky QB rotation once Brady is done.
Given the fact when O'Sullivan comes out we can expect Spag to drop one safety low and play one high when Palmer comes in the game looking to force the Bengals to air it out rather then pound the rock. With Jordan Palmer in the game that's risky for the Bengals considering his abilities or lack thereof.
*Note*: This line has pretty much stayed at 2.5 at all books, we've saw 3 at only a couple of books but was very quickly bet back down to 2.5. Since we are releasing this a day ahead of time you may want to wait closer to kick off to see if you can grab it at 3 if it jumps back up since most of the public money is pouring in on Cincy; but so far it's looking like it's going to stay put at 2.5.
1* Rams +2.5
As many people know week 3 in preseason in considered a "dress rehearsal" for NFL teams and considered to be the closest pace to a regular season game. Bengals Coach Marvin Lewis has said he doesn't feel this is a "dress rehearsal" for his team and starting running back Cedric Benson agreed with his head coach. It shows because Lewis is just 1-4 ATS in "dress rehearsal" a.k.a. week 3 of preseason games. He said he's not one of these guys that says his starters have to play into the third quarter of the third preseason game, and it will be much more like the New England game as far as the rotation. We don't want to lay any points with a coach or players with that attitude coming into this game.
Both Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger will be out in this game and we have to give the edge to the Rams as far as the QB rotation goes. The starters will play most of the first half in this game for the Bengals. J.T. O'Sullivan will get the start again at QB and Coach Lewis has said that Jordan Palmer will see increased playing time this week. The Rams will be play starters the whole first half and Spagnuolo says he may even play them in some of the second half depending on what the total plays are at that point in the game. Don't expect to see Steven Jackson get more than five carries and back up Kenneth Darby isn't expected to play. So we will see Antonio Pittman(51 yards 5.6 YPC) and Samkon Gado(105 yards 9.5 YPC 1 TD) to expect a lot of reps.
J.T. O'Sullivan for the Bengals has had a solid preseason putting up 241 yards and 2 TD's so far. The Rams will let Kyle Boller get the start who played decent and was 9/16 for 91 yards last week filling in for Bulger. A slight edge here goes to O'Sullivan who has better play makers surrounding him but once the second half comes around it's a whole different story.
The second half rotation edge is huge for the Rams in this game. Jordan Palmer has yet to lead his offense to put up any points in the preseason when he is under center. As a matter of fact the Bengals haven't scored any second half points in the preseason yet. Last week against the Patriots backups he was 2/7 for 45 yards passing. The Rams have two guys battling for the final QB roster spot in Keith Null and Brock Berlin who have both impressed us this preseason; Berlin 98 yds 1 TD/0 Int 68.7% and Keith Null 72 yds 1TD /1 INT 72.7% . They should be giving it their all this week to prove why they deserve a job as the 3rd string QB on this team.
The 20-13 loss for St.Louis last week against Atlanta is a little deceiving. The Matt Ryan led Falcons first string offense looked in regular season form going on 2 long drives putting up an easy 14 points. Once the second and third string players came in for both squads the Rams outscored them 13-6; now keep in mind the Bengals 2nd and 3rd string players have yet to put up any points so far in preseason as we said earlier.
The Rams have outscored opponents 24-16 in the 2nd half of preseason games while the Bengals have been outscored 10-0 in the final 30 minutes of their 2 preseason games. Also remember the Patriots who the Bengals beat last week 7-6 have a very shaky QB rotation once Brady is done.
Given the fact when O'Sullivan comes out we can expect Spag to drop one safety low and play one high when Palmer comes in the game looking to force the Bengals to air it out rather then pound the rock. With Jordan Palmer in the game that's risky for the Bengals considering his abilities or lack thereof.
*Note*: This line has pretty much stayed at 2.5 at all books, we've saw 3 at only a couple of books but was very quickly bet back down to 2.5. Since we are releasing this a day ahead of time you may want to wait closer to kick off to see if you can grab it at 3 if it jumps back up since most of the public money is pouring in on Cincy; but so far it's looking like it's going to stay put at 2.5.
ALF MUSKETA
Jaguars at Eagles
Pick: Jaguars +7.5
The Eagles have a serious issue at the Offensive Line position. In their last game against the Colts four of their starting five OL were OUT. For this game they get back Stacy Andrews, but still out are Pro Bowl linemen Shaun Andrews and left tackle Jason Peters. Key players indeed. The Eagles QB rotation is McNab for the first half and then Kolb followed by Micheal Vick probably in the 4th quarter only. Kolb has looked awful and how good can Vick be at this point??
Jax will come to play and they are working on moving the ball down field. getting +7 in a pre-season game is like getting +14 in the regular season.
Take the points.
Jaguars at Eagles
Pick: Jaguars +7.5
The Eagles have a serious issue at the Offensive Line position. In their last game against the Colts four of their starting five OL were OUT. For this game they get back Stacy Andrews, but still out are Pro Bowl linemen Shaun Andrews and left tackle Jason Peters. Key players indeed. The Eagles QB rotation is McNab for the first half and then Kolb followed by Micheal Vick probably in the 4th quarter only. Kolb has looked awful and how good can Vick be at this point??
Jax will come to play and they are working on moving the ball down field. getting +7 in a pre-season game is like getting +14 in the regular season.
Take the points.
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Jacksonville (+7.5) over Philadelphia (NFL Power Play)
Jacksonville
• 4-0 ATS when playing in the last two weeks of the pre-season
• 6-1 ATS in pre-season coming off a loss by 6 points or less
• 9-1 ATS in pre-season road games when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points
• 3-0 ATS in pre-season when playing on a Thursday
10* Take Jacksonville (+7.5) over Philadelphia (NFL Power Play)
Jacksonville
• 4-0 ATS when playing in the last two weeks of the pre-season
• 6-1 ATS in pre-season coming off a loss by 6 points or less
• 9-1 ATS in pre-season road games when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points
• 3-0 ATS in pre-season when playing on a Thursday
Bob Balfe
Eagles -7 over Jaguars
Forget the fact Mike Vick is playing in this game. I really think people are getting excited for nothing. There is no way the Eagles go into their bag of tricks and show the rest of the NFL just what they have in store for Vick. This line is not that high because of Vicks presence. If anything 99% of the betting public outside of Philadelphia hates Vick and would love to take the Jags with all of the points. Philly is a big favorite because they will be playing their starters longer than the Jaguars and have better depth. When you bet preseason football you really cant look at the lines. If the Eagles win they probably cover. There is not much difference between 3 and 7 since teams are not going to be kicking late field goals. The Eagles are starting to get healthy and Look for Philadelphia's starters to put this away early and get their first preseason win at home.
MLB
Phillies/Pirates Under 8.5
Eagles -7 over Jaguars
Forget the fact Mike Vick is playing in this game. I really think people are getting excited for nothing. There is no way the Eagles go into their bag of tricks and show the rest of the NFL just what they have in store for Vick. This line is not that high because of Vicks presence. If anything 99% of the betting public outside of Philadelphia hates Vick and would love to take the Jags with all of the points. Philly is a big favorite because they will be playing their starters longer than the Jaguars and have better depth. When you bet preseason football you really cant look at the lines. If the Eagles win they probably cover. There is not much difference between 3 and 7 since teams are not going to be kicking late field goals. The Eagles are starting to get healthy and Look for Philadelphia's starters to put this away early and get their first preseason win at home.
MLB
Phillies/Pirates Under 8.5
