Jack Jones
15* on Seattle Mariners +185
Take the Mariners over the Indians tonight as a huge underdog. This line is based heavily on the starting pitching match up. Last year's Cy Young Award Winner, Cliff Lee is going for the Indians. Lee has not enjoyed nearly as much success this season, posting a respectable 3.47 ERA, but earning just a 4-9 record for the Indians, including a 2-6 record at home. Lee has labored through his 3 most recent starts, going 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. Considering that the Indians have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, sporting a 5.18 ERA, 13-17 record, and 53.3% save conversion percentage, there is no way the Indians should be favored so heavily. Offensively the Indians have the edge overall, but they are hitting just .247 and scoring just 3.7 runs per game over their last 7 games, a major contributing factor to their 2-5 record over that span. Seattle has been surprisingly consistent this season, coming into tonight's game with a 46-42 record overall, compare that to Cleveland's 35-54 mark, including a 19-25 record at home, and you can see why I like the Mariners at this price Thursday night.
15* on Washingotn Nationals +115
It's pretty rare to take baseball's worst team, but I will play them small tonight against the Cubs. National's starter, John Lannan, has been nothing but solid at home this season, going 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 9 starts in Washington. Meanwhile, Cubs' starter, Rich Harden, has put together just one quality start in his last three appearances, going 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. The Nationals are actually out-scoring the Cubs this season, 4.4 runs per game to 4.1 runs per game, and though Washington's bullpen is always a concern, Chicago has had plenty of trouble out of their relief staff on the road as well. This is a perfect spot for the Nats to pick up their 27th win of the season.
20* No-Brainer on Brewers/Reds UNDER 9.5
Take the UNDER with a pair of teams who are really struggling to produce runs right now. The Brewers are just 2-5 over their last 7 games, and hitting just .257 as a team while scoring just 3.7 runs per game. The Reds are also 2-5 over their past 7 games, posting a team batting average of just .230, and putting up a mere 3.3 runs per game. Both starters have put up ERAs under 4.00 over their past three starts, while both bullpens here have also earned ERAs under 4.00 for the season. There's no reason to believe either team breaks out of their hitting slump tonight. The under is my strongest play today.