SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Baltimore @ TAMPA BAY
Baltimore -102 over TAMPA BAY
(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)
Bud Norris posted a near-4 ERA and some very average outings before the All-Star break. He has been a lot better ever since with 8.5 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 47% groundball rate. Those gains would be more noticeable if not for an unlucky 35% hit rate. Norris’s surge in strikeouts is supported by his 10% swing and miss % since the break so he’s a solid proposition to keep churning out strong games the rest of the way. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Norris has a BB/K split of 5/26 with a line-drive rate of 14%, a groundball rate of 48% and a xERA of 3.25. Norris can deal it but we’re not so sure about Jeremy Hellickson.
Hellickson is rated a high risk for a tough home outing against one of the American League’s best road offenses. Hellickson (5.32 home ERA this season) is coming off back-to-back games in which he did not make it out of the fifth inning against both Toronto (5 ER in 3.1 IP) and these same Orioles (4 ER in 4.1 IP). Hellickson was also tagged for three bombs in those two games. After three years of outperforming xERA with favorable hit and strand percentages, luck has predictably swung the other way against him this year. Hellickson’s weak 34%/45% groundball/fly-ball split is another troublesome trait in his profile. The Orioles are in one of their hot zones (5.6 RPG, .828 OPS since Aug. 25) and they always seem to be in a hot zone against Hellickson (.822 OPS in 220+ PA). The O’s figure to get to Hellickson again and in the process put away the Rays early.
Kansas City @ N.Y. YANKEES
Kansas City +104 over N.Y. YANKEES
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
We ran into some hard luck yesterday with the Royals when Danny Duffy was removed from the game after throwing one pitch. One pitch is an official start and the Royals were forced to being in career stiff Liam Hendriks. Naturally we lost that game but it’s not going to prevent us from coming right back on the Royals here against Shane Greene. An addition to a Yankees rotation that re-tooled midseason due to various injuries, farmhand Shane Greene has given the Yankees some very good innings since his July promotion. Only problem is, this is the same guy with a career 4.39 ERA in over 500 career minor league innings. Are we sure this is the same guy? Greene has had no problem inducing swings and misses versus major league competition. His K rate has hovered around 8 K’s/9 throughout his minor league career, but his current swing and miss rate of 10% at this level was unexpected. That said, you don't spend five years in Single-A without your share of warts, and his competition thus far has been on the light side (BOS twice, TEX, TAM, CHW). Nothing in his current profile says an implosion is imminent but the small sample size corollary is in play here and we’re seeing signs of big trouble. Greene’s line-drive rate of 27% is high, which suggests he's been fairly hittable. This is an ongoing problem of his, as he allowed nearly 10 hits per game on average in the minors. His WHIP of 1.36 is higher than the league average and in his last three starts Greene has been taken yard four times. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, Greene has an oppBA of .306, an ERA of 5.40 and a BB/K split of 11/22 in 26 innings. It would appear that the book is out on him now that he’s made 11 starts.
Royals starter Yordano Ventura was skipped in his rotation turn on Aug. 27 because of tightness in the middle of his back. It was later reported Ventura's MRI showed inflammation and fluid but no damage and as a result he missed just one start. He returned to the rotation on Sept 1 and allowed just five hits in 6.1 frames against the Rangers while striking out 7. K.C. has won six of Ventura’s last seven starts. He’s now 11-9 with an elite 18 pure quality starts in 25 tries, a 3.38 ERA and 132 K’s overall in 153 innings. This little guy with the big arm (fastball touches 100 mph) has top of the rotation potential and if he really is figuring it out as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. Everything in Ventura’s profile is heading the right way including swinging strike rate, first pitch strike rate, groundball percentage (52% over his last six starts) and most importantly xERA. As a pooch against the light hitting Yanks, Ventura and the Royals offer up all the value here.
MLB
Baltimore @ TAMPA BAY
Baltimore -102 over TAMPA BAY
(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)
Bud Norris posted a near-4 ERA and some very average outings before the All-Star break. He has been a lot better ever since with 8.5 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 47% groundball rate. Those gains would be more noticeable if not for an unlucky 35% hit rate. Norris’s surge in strikeouts is supported by his 10% swing and miss % since the break so he’s a solid proposition to keep churning out strong games the rest of the way. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Norris has a BB/K split of 5/26 with a line-drive rate of 14%, a groundball rate of 48% and a xERA of 3.25. Norris can deal it but we’re not so sure about Jeremy Hellickson.
Hellickson is rated a high risk for a tough home outing against one of the American League’s best road offenses. Hellickson (5.32 home ERA this season) is coming off back-to-back games in which he did not make it out of the fifth inning against both Toronto (5 ER in 3.1 IP) and these same Orioles (4 ER in 4.1 IP). Hellickson was also tagged for three bombs in those two games. After three years of outperforming xERA with favorable hit and strand percentages, luck has predictably swung the other way against him this year. Hellickson’s weak 34%/45% groundball/fly-ball split is another troublesome trait in his profile. The Orioles are in one of their hot zones (5.6 RPG, .828 OPS since Aug. 25) and they always seem to be in a hot zone against Hellickson (.822 OPS in 220+ PA). The O’s figure to get to Hellickson again and in the process put away the Rays early.
Kansas City @ N.Y. YANKEES
Kansas City +104 over N.Y. YANKEES
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
We ran into some hard luck yesterday with the Royals when Danny Duffy was removed from the game after throwing one pitch. One pitch is an official start and the Royals were forced to being in career stiff Liam Hendriks. Naturally we lost that game but it’s not going to prevent us from coming right back on the Royals here against Shane Greene. An addition to a Yankees rotation that re-tooled midseason due to various injuries, farmhand Shane Greene has given the Yankees some very good innings since his July promotion. Only problem is, this is the same guy with a career 4.39 ERA in over 500 career minor league innings. Are we sure this is the same guy? Greene has had no problem inducing swings and misses versus major league competition. His K rate has hovered around 8 K’s/9 throughout his minor league career, but his current swing and miss rate of 10% at this level was unexpected. That said, you don't spend five years in Single-A without your share of warts, and his competition thus far has been on the light side (BOS twice, TEX, TAM, CHW). Nothing in his current profile says an implosion is imminent but the small sample size corollary is in play here and we’re seeing signs of big trouble. Greene’s line-drive rate of 27% is high, which suggests he's been fairly hittable. This is an ongoing problem of his, as he allowed nearly 10 hits per game on average in the minors. His WHIP of 1.36 is higher than the league average and in his last three starts Greene has been taken yard four times. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, Greene has an oppBA of .306, an ERA of 5.40 and a BB/K split of 11/22 in 26 innings. It would appear that the book is out on him now that he’s made 11 starts.
Royals starter Yordano Ventura was skipped in his rotation turn on Aug. 27 because of tightness in the middle of his back. It was later reported Ventura's MRI showed inflammation and fluid but no damage and as a result he missed just one start. He returned to the rotation on Sept 1 and allowed just five hits in 6.1 frames against the Rangers while striking out 7. K.C. has won six of Ventura’s last seven starts. He’s now 11-9 with an elite 18 pure quality starts in 25 tries, a 3.38 ERA and 132 K’s overall in 153 innings. This little guy with the big arm (fastball touches 100 mph) has top of the rotation potential and if he really is figuring it out as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. Everything in Ventura’s profile is heading the right way including swinging strike rate, first pitch strike rate, groundball percentage (52% over his last six starts) and most importantly xERA. As a pooch against the light hitting Yanks, Ventura and the Royals offer up all the value here.
Bones Best Bet
Vikings @ Rams Under 43 -105 *2*
Saints @ Falcons Over 52 -105 *2*
Teaser - 7.5 points - 4 teams - ties reduce
Saints +4.5 / Steelers pk / Patriots +4 / Giants/Lions o39.5 +215 *3*
Teaser - 8 points - 4 teams - tied reduce
Saints/Falcons Over 44 / 49ers +4 /Broncos -1 / Colts/Broncos Over 47 +185 *3*
Vikings @ Rams Under 43 -105 *2*
Saints @ Falcons Over 52 -105 *2*
Teaser - 7.5 points - 4 teams - ties reduce
Saints +4.5 / Steelers pk / Patriots +4 / Giants/Lions o39.5 +215 *3*
Teaser - 8 points - 4 teams - tied reduce
Saints/Falcons Over 44 / 49ers +4 /Broncos -1 / Colts/Broncos Over 47 +185 *3*
HE WAGER WIRE / Joey Buckets
26195 NOR Reg. Season Wins o9½ (-170) 2u
25361 NOR Win NFC South (+105) 1u
Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Wins u8.5 (-150) 2u
Cowboys Regular Season Wins Total u8 (-200) 2u
Colts Win AFC South (-145) 2u
1u Bears/Bills u48.5 (-110)
1u Browns/Steelers o41 (-110)
1u Bengals/Ravens u43.5 (-110)
1u Vikings +4 (-110)
26195 NOR Reg. Season Wins o9½ (-170) 2u
25361 NOR Win NFC South (+105) 1u
Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Wins u8.5 (-150) 2u
Cowboys Regular Season Wins Total u8 (-200) 2u
Colts Win AFC South (-145) 2u
1u Bears/Bills u48.5 (-110)
1u Browns/Steelers o41 (-110)
1u Bengals/Ravens u43.5 (-110)
1u Vikings +4 (-110)
PSYCHIC
(1-5)
5 unit San Francisco -4.5 (MAJOR)
3 unit Atlanta +3
3 unit Washington +3
WIZARD
(1-10)
9 unit Chicago -6.5
JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)
1 unit Minnesota +3.
The Statman
(1-10)
7 unit Chicago -6.5
Michael Cash Money
(1-10)
8 unit Chicago -6.5
7 unit Indianpolis +7.5
Genius
(1-10)
8 unit Oregon -13
The Sports Report
(1-10)
8 unit New England -4.5
Totals 4 U
(1-100% ratings)
67% over 37.5 Carolina-TB
Sports Chick
(1-10, occassional 20)
7.5 unit Chicago -6.5
7.5 unit Kansas City -3
Sports Advisors, Joe Wright
(1-10)
8 unit Carolina +2.5
8 unit Indianapolis +7.5
(1-5)
5 unit San Francisco -4.5 (MAJOR)
3 unit Atlanta +3
3 unit Washington +3
WIZARD
(1-10)
9 unit Chicago -6.5
JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)
1 unit Minnesota +3.
The Statman
(1-10)
7 unit Chicago -6.5
Michael Cash Money
(1-10)
8 unit Chicago -6.5
7 unit Indianpolis +7.5
Genius
(1-10)
8 unit Oregon -13
The Sports Report
(1-10)
8 unit New England -4.5
Totals 4 U
(1-100% ratings)
67% over 37.5 Carolina-TB
Sports Chick
(1-10, occassional 20)
7.5 unit Chicago -6.5
7.5 unit Kansas City -3
Sports Advisors, Joe Wright
(1-10)
8 unit Carolina +2.5
8 unit Indianapolis +7.5
Bob Balfe
MLB
Colorado Rockies +110
Just like we said yesterday, if San Diego can come here and out score this Rockies team then so be it, but Colorado is built for this park and it really doesn't matter who the starting pitchers are. The Padres scored a ton of runs last night and still lost. Colorado just has better bats in this park and I like them as the dog. Take the Rockies.
MLB
Colorado Rockies +110
Just like we said yesterday, if San Diego can come here and out score this Rockies team then so be it, but Colorado is built for this park and it really doesn't matter who the starting pitchers are. The Padres scored a ton of runs last night and still lost. Colorado just has better bats in this park and I like them as the dog. Take the Rockies.
