VegasButcher - NFL - Week 4
#1: Tampa Bay Bucaneers +7.5
This one opened at -7.5 PIT and stayed there pretty much the whole week. Remember, this is after the Bucs getting absolutely demolished on TNF by the Falcons and Steelers going on the road and dominating the Panthers on SNF. Both games were seen by the national audience so the public’s perceptions are very clearly defined for this one. Not surprisingly over 70% of all the bets are on the Steelers, a popular public team in their own right. So let’s make a case for the underdog here. Tampa is coming into this one having 10 days to prepare. It’s similar to coming off a BYE-week, where those teams have a slight advantage and tend to perform better than their opponent. In addition, we have a QB change as the Bucs are going with Mike Glennon, someone who played in 13 games for the Bucs last year and is familiar with the offensive personnel. Steelers rank 27th so far in efficiency defending the pass, so Glennon should have success here. Finally, consider the fact that Tampa will be much healthier, starting a number of players that missed that TNF debacle last week: Doug Martin, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Gerlad McCoy (stud DT), Michael Johnson (played 7 snaps last week), and of course Glennon, who simply CANNOT do much worse than McCown. Of course let’s remember that Pittsburgh lost 3 starters on defense: Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Ike Taylor. Interestingly, prior to the season Pittsburgh was listed as a -3.5 point home favorite in this matchup. I believe there’s definitely some line-value on the road team in this one and I’d be surprised if the Bucs don’t show up today after such a pathetic display last week. Expect a close game.
#2: Green Bay Packers -1.5
There’s one distinct difference between the Bears and the previous three opponents that the Packers have faced so far this season: run defense. Detroit ranks 2nd, Seattle is 5th, and the Jets are 6th against the run. Bears come into the game ranking 16th but will be even in a worse shape for this one as they’re dealing with a number of injuries on the defensive side (Ratliff out, McClellin out, Conte is very questionable, Mundy is banged up but should play). If Green Bay’s run-game is ever going to get going, this week will be it. The Jets’ 28th ranked offense averaged 6.5 YPP (Yards Per Play) as the average is about 5.4 in the league. New York got into the red-zone 6 times, scoring only 1 TD while also turning the ball over 3 times to Chicago’s 1. A more efficient offense would have capitalized on more of those opportunities and I believe that offense is coming into town today. Defensively, you have to be encouraged by what the Packers did last week. They held the Lions to only 4.8 YPP and 10 points at their own house. The defense forced 3 TO’s and played extremely well. Chicago is 4-12 ATS at home in the last 16 games, they’re 2-10 ATS against the division, and most importantly they’re 6-17 ATS at home against Green Bay, which could be a psychological thing at this point. Green Bay is coming off a divisional loss and they know this is a big game for them. Chicago played in prime-time @ San Fran in week 2 and then @ NYJ on Monday, winning both close games. On a short week and after a lot of travel the past few weeks, I think we might see a let-down from the Bears. I think Packers are in a very good spot to grab an important divisional game today.
#3: New Orleans Saints -3
Last week this Dallas defense allowed 6.2 YPP, 448 yards, and 31 points to a Rams offense led by Austin Davis. Today, they’ll be without Henry Melton in the middle of their D-line and have a number of other defensive players playing at a below 100%. If Drew Brees doesn’t light this defense up I’ll be very surprised. Last year these teams met with NO winning 49 to 17, destroying the defense led by Sean Lee. Today, it should be even easier to move the ball for the Saints. I know this team is 0-2 SU/ATS on the road, but they won’t go 0-8 away from Superdome this season. Saints D has allowed 3.9 RY/A this season and their focus will be stopping Dallas’ run-game. With Romo being more of a game-manager this year, I believe that is the right strategy in this matchup. Limit the run-game and force Romo to make plays. I’m willing to bet that he’ll have a tough time keeping up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense in this one. Saints are a better team and I’m not very impressed with Dallas’ wins against TEN and STL, both bottom-10 teams.
#4: Jacksonville Jaguars +12.5
Sometimes all you need is a strong-armed young QB to make a big difference on a team and that’s what I expect to see today. Brotles will bring a different dimension to this Jags offense and not just by his ability to throw the ball. He’s a very good athlete and I see him moving the ball via the run as well here. Chargers are a very good team of course, but their style prevents them from blowing out opponents. They like to play ball-control, possession type of a game which bodes well for a DD-spread. With Brotles behind center for the Jags I like Jacksonville’s chances of staying close and covering the spread here. Prior to the season the line on this game was -10 SD, and I believe we have some value in this one.
#1: Tampa Bay Bucaneers +7.5
This one opened at -7.5 PIT and stayed there pretty much the whole week. Remember, this is after the Bucs getting absolutely demolished on TNF by the Falcons and Steelers going on the road and dominating the Panthers on SNF. Both games were seen by the national audience so the public’s perceptions are very clearly defined for this one. Not surprisingly over 70% of all the bets are on the Steelers, a popular public team in their own right. So let’s make a case for the underdog here. Tampa is coming into this one having 10 days to prepare. It’s similar to coming off a BYE-week, where those teams have a slight advantage and tend to perform better than their opponent. In addition, we have a QB change as the Bucs are going with Mike Glennon, someone who played in 13 games for the Bucs last year and is familiar with the offensive personnel. Steelers rank 27th so far in efficiency defending the pass, so Glennon should have success here. Finally, consider the fact that Tampa will be much healthier, starting a number of players that missed that TNF debacle last week: Doug Martin, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Gerlad McCoy (stud DT), Michael Johnson (played 7 snaps last week), and of course Glennon, who simply CANNOT do much worse than McCown. Of course let’s remember that Pittsburgh lost 3 starters on defense: Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Ike Taylor. Interestingly, prior to the season Pittsburgh was listed as a -3.5 point home favorite in this matchup. I believe there’s definitely some line-value on the road team in this one and I’d be surprised if the Bucs don’t show up today after such a pathetic display last week. Expect a close game.
#2: Green Bay Packers -1.5
There’s one distinct difference between the Bears and the previous three opponents that the Packers have faced so far this season: run defense. Detroit ranks 2nd, Seattle is 5th, and the Jets are 6th against the run. Bears come into the game ranking 16th but will be even in a worse shape for this one as they’re dealing with a number of injuries on the defensive side (Ratliff out, McClellin out, Conte is very questionable, Mundy is banged up but should play). If Green Bay’s run-game is ever going to get going, this week will be it. The Jets’ 28th ranked offense averaged 6.5 YPP (Yards Per Play) as the average is about 5.4 in the league. New York got into the red-zone 6 times, scoring only 1 TD while also turning the ball over 3 times to Chicago’s 1. A more efficient offense would have capitalized on more of those opportunities and I believe that offense is coming into town today. Defensively, you have to be encouraged by what the Packers did last week. They held the Lions to only 4.8 YPP and 10 points at their own house. The defense forced 3 TO’s and played extremely well. Chicago is 4-12 ATS at home in the last 16 games, they’re 2-10 ATS against the division, and most importantly they’re 6-17 ATS at home against Green Bay, which could be a psychological thing at this point. Green Bay is coming off a divisional loss and they know this is a big game for them. Chicago played in prime-time @ San Fran in week 2 and then @ NYJ on Monday, winning both close games. On a short week and after a lot of travel the past few weeks, I think we might see a let-down from the Bears. I think Packers are in a very good spot to grab an important divisional game today.
#3: New Orleans Saints -3
Last week this Dallas defense allowed 6.2 YPP, 448 yards, and 31 points to a Rams offense led by Austin Davis. Today, they’ll be without Henry Melton in the middle of their D-line and have a number of other defensive players playing at a below 100%. If Drew Brees doesn’t light this defense up I’ll be very surprised. Last year these teams met with NO winning 49 to 17, destroying the defense led by Sean Lee. Today, it should be even easier to move the ball for the Saints. I know this team is 0-2 SU/ATS on the road, but they won’t go 0-8 away from Superdome this season. Saints D has allowed 3.9 RY/A this season and their focus will be stopping Dallas’ run-game. With Romo being more of a game-manager this year, I believe that is the right strategy in this matchup. Limit the run-game and force Romo to make plays. I’m willing to bet that he’ll have a tough time keeping up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense in this one. Saints are a better team and I’m not very impressed with Dallas’ wins against TEN and STL, both bottom-10 teams.
#4: Jacksonville Jaguars +12.5
Sometimes all you need is a strong-armed young QB to make a big difference on a team and that’s what I expect to see today. Brotles will bring a different dimension to this Jags offense and not just by his ability to throw the ball. He’s a very good athlete and I see him moving the ball via the run as well here. Chargers are a very good team of course, but their style prevents them from blowing out opponents. They like to play ball-control, possession type of a game which bodes well for a DD-spread. With Brotles behind center for the Jags I like Jacksonville’s chances of staying close and covering the spread here. Prior to the season the line on this game was -10 SD, and I believe we have some value in this one.
Topshelfpicks
Carson K
Raiders +3.5 They already faced the Jets & Pats "D" on the road this year, plus the pass rush of the Texans. I think they are ready to put some pts on the board vs. the Dolphins "D".
Jets PK Just don't trust the Lions. Jets will play "D" and Geno will make up for last week.
Titans +7.5 I don't care who the QB is, Tenn plays the Colts tough every game.
Bills +3 Just going with my gut in this one.
Carson K
Raiders +3.5 They already faced the Jets & Pats "D" on the road this year, plus the pass rush of the Texans. I think they are ready to put some pts on the board vs. the Dolphins "D".
Jets PK Just don't trust the Lions. Jets will play "D" and Geno will make up for last week.
Titans +7.5 I don't care who the QB is, Tenn plays the Colts tough every game.
Bills +3 Just going with my gut in this one.
