Service Plays Sunday 9/28/14

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Football Crusher
Chicago Bears +105 over Green Bay Packers
(System Record: 9-1, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 9-11-1

Rest of the Plays
Minnesota Vikings +3 over Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets +1.5 over Detroit Lions
Houston Texans -150 over Buffalo Bills


 

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Soccer Crusher
Santos + Goias OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 639-22, won last 4 games)Overall Record: 639-532-95
 
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EZWINNERS

3 STAR SELECTION – (260) Baltimore Ravens -3

(Risking $330 to win $300)
I think we are starting to see the regression of the Panthers that so many of us expected this season. Carolina looked horrible in all aspects of the game against Pittsburgh last Sunday night. Cam Newton is still banged up, is not in sync with his receivers and is not much of a threat to leave the pocket and run. The powerful running game of Carolina is also hurting as all three of their top running backs Williams, Stewart and Tolbert all have some type of injury. The defense was shredded by a team that hadn’t scored a touchdown in over six quarters and the Panthers have issues with the kick return game. Baltimore is coming off of a huge confidence building win in Cleveland and I expect them to build on that in this game. Joe Flacco continues to make big throws in the clutch and I expect ex Carolina Panther Steve Smith Sr. to have a huge game against his former team. Vegas hasn’t caught up to how bad this Carolina team really is as of yet so this number is very reasonable. Lay the points.

3 STAR SELECTION – (263) Tampa Bay Bucs +7

(Risking $330 to win $300)
Everyone watched both of these teams last week on national TV. The Bucs were destroyed by the Falcons on Thursday night while the Steelers bulldozed the Panthers in Carolina for a win on Sunday Night Football. Most people will expect Pittsburgh to not have many problems with Tampa Bay in this game, but I don’t believe that to be the case. The Bucs have had extra time to prepare for this game and Mike Glennon will be making the start at quarterback for Tampa. I feel the offense will be much better with Glennon under center. Starting quarterback Josh McCown has not looked like the player that stepped in for the Bears last year and looked so good. McCown looks like the journeyman quarterback that he is. Pittsburgh also lost three key offensive players to injury in the win over Carolina. Rookie inside linebacker Ryan Shazier (sprained MCL), cornerback Ike Taylor (broken right forearm) and outside linebacker Jarvis Jones (wrist). The Steelers exploded on offense last week, but I’m not so sure they will keep that going. Tampa Bay’s defense was destroyed by the Falcons, but lets not also forget Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles before the second half of their game against the Panthers. Take the points.

3 STAR SELECTION – (265) Jacksonville Jagurs +12.5

(Risking $330 to win $300)
I cashed in a winner last week with their Chargers as they traveled to the east coast and knocked off the 2-0 Bills. Many predicted that to be a flat spot for San Diego. Many said the Chargers were in a letdown spot after knocking off the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and being in a bad scheduling spot having to make the long trip east for an early kickoff. I think that thinking was a week premature as I think this week is the letdown spot. After the upset home win two weeks ago and the long travel last week for the win how can this team be fired up to play an 0-3 Jaguars team? Jacksonville was hammered once again last week by the Colts at home, but one thing good came out of that loss and that was the beginning of the Blake Bortles era at quarterback. Bortles played very well this preseason and brings some swag and excitement to this offense that does have some talent around him. San Diego’s offense also took another hit in their win last week as running back Danny Woodhead was injured and will miss this game along with starting running back Ryan Matthews. Take the points.

3 STAR SELECTION – (270) Minnesota Vikings +3

(Risking $330 to win $300)
I really like the Vikings in this spot. Atlanta absolutely destroyed the Bucs at home last Thursday night as we cashed on the Falcons, and now this week they are only favored by 3 points against Minnesota? The Vikings lost at New Orleans but put a fight in the 20-9 loss. Minnesota starting quarterback Matt Cassel was injured and rookie Teddy Bridgewater stepped in to complete 12 out of 20 passes for 150 yards in a very tough environment. This week Bridgewater will get a full week of preparation. Over the past few seasons a team starting their backup quarterback for the first time other than in week one (this applies to Tampa Bay and Jacksonville also this week) has covered the spread at an extremely high rate. In week 2 the Rams cashed in this spot at Tampa Bay. The Vikings were in a very tough spot last week dealing with the Adrian Peterson mess and the uncertainty if he was playing or not and having to travel to New Orleans. Minnesota defense did a pretty solid job against the high powered Saints offense and I expect them to hold their own against a Falcons team that is not the same team on the road as they are at home in the dome. Take the points.


 
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NFLBetting Tips

Kevin’s Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears – PACKERS -1 (-110)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)

Kyle’s Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens – PANTHERS +3.5 (-115)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)
I guess the consensus among the public after the Panthers took a beating in primetime is that they are suddenly a bad team. Hold on a second. This is the same team that finished 2nd in total defense last season, and while their numbers are skewed this season due to the 37 points they gave up a year ago, this is still a very good defense. The week prior they gave up just 7 points to a very good Detroit offense. The Panthers’ defense should respond after getting embarrassed against the Steelers in that matchup and come back to being a team that allowed only 15 points per game in 2013. I give an edge to the Panthers in the defensive department in this game, facing what I would call an average Ravens’ defense. The defense is average, and the offense has taken a big step back since winning the Super Bowl. Of course Ray Rice is absent giving the rushing attack a less than desirable attack, but Joe Flacco and the passing game has looked shaky. The offense picked the defense up when they won the Super Bowl, but I don’t think they have the offense to do that this season. Note that Flacco only has a quarterback rating of 82.3 heading into week 4. Despite getting shellacked a week ago, the Panthers’ defense has allowed an average of only 202 yards per game through the air. I feel like this is a 3 point game either way. The Panthers’ offense doesn’t get me all that excited, but the defense should make life tough on Flacco Sunday afternoon. I expect a low-scoring contest with a field goal separating the Panthers and Ravens.
 
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Tech Trends - Week 4
By Bruce Marshall

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

Sunday, Sept. 28

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MIAMI vs. OAKLAND (at Wembley Stadium London)...Miami 0-3 in rare road chalk role since 2011. Dolphins also "under" 20-14-2 last 36. Slight to "under," based on "totals" and team trends.

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO...Pack has covered 6 of last 7 meetings including four straight at Soldier Field. Pack also "over" 8-2 last 10 away, Bears "over" 13-5-1 since LY after Monday "over" vs. Jets. "Over" and Packers, based on "totals" and series trends.

BUFFALO at HOUSTON...Bills were 1-6 as visiting dog LY but won at Bears in first 2014 try. Texans, based on recent Bills road woes.

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS...Colts have won last five SU in series (3-1-1 vs. line in those), Titans not close to cover last two TY. Colts, based on series trends.

CAROLINA at BALTIMORE...Ravens "under" 7-4-1 last 12 as host. Panthers 8-1 last nine as road dog. Carolina "under" 14-6 last 20 since 2013. "Under" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

DETROIT at NY JETS...Lions still struggling on road, now 6-15-1 last 22 vs. number away since mid 2011 (0-1 2014). Jets 7-3 SU as host since LY. Jets, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at PITTSBURGH...Bucs laboring 0-3 SU and vs. line. Now 3-8 last 11 as road dog (0-1 for Lovie). Steelers, based on recent Bucs woes.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN DIEGO...Jags 0-3 vs. line TY, now 0-5-1 last six vs. spread. Jax "over" 7-3-1 last 11 away. Bolts 6-3 last 9 vs. line at Qualcomm. Chargers and slight to "over," based on Jag woes and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO...Eagles 4-1 as road dog for Chip Kelly. Also "over" 7-2 last nine away. 49ers 1-3-1 vs. points last five as host (0-1 in new Levi's TY). Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at MINNESOTA...Vikes "under" first three in 2014 after "over" 12-4 LY. Minnesota 6-1 as home dog past two seasons but 0-1 in role TY. Falcons 10-6-1 as road chalk since 20111. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS...Saints no covers first two on road TY, now 0-6 as road chalk since LY. Also "over" first two away in 2014 after "under" 7-1 in role LY. Cowboys 6-14 last 20 vs. line as host (0-1 TY). Also "over" 10-6 last 16 at Arlington. "Over" and Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.


Monday, Sept. 29

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs under" 11-4 last 15 as host. Belichick,1-5 last six as road chalk. Chiefs and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
 
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Gridiron Angles - Week 4
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a favorite versus any team with more wins.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since December 25, 2010 coming a win versus any team with fewer wins.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-12 ATS as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-12 OU (-9.75 ppg) since Jan 13, 2007 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams which are 1-2 after winning at least nine games last season are 35-55-2 ATS. Active against Indianapolis, San Francisco, New Orleans and Kansas City.
 
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Joe Gavazzi

UNDER DOG GAME OF THE DAY

Detroit Lions (-2) at NY Jets 1:00 ET
Onecannot help but note the early season pattern in the results of 2-1 SU ATSDetroit. The home team in Detroit games is a perfect 3-0 SU ATS, winningeach contest by 12 or more points. This includes Detroit’s draining 19-7victory at home vs. Green Bay last week, in which they outrushed the Packers115-76. It would certainly seem a “downer” for Detroit, based on thatearly season pattern. For Detroit is recently just 5-16 ATS away and just4-13 ATS following a victory. That works nicely with the Jets’ probablebounce back on their home field. In the 27-19 MNF home loss to the Bears,the Jets won the battle of yards, 114-60 overland and 414-257 overall. That made it consecutive losses for the NYers. They look to redeemthemselves on this field just 6 days later. Knowing that the Jets are15-2 ATS in consecutive home games, works nicely with the abovesituation. Finally, the Jets’ success at the point of attack seals thedeal for us. The Fly Boys are outrushing their opponents after 3 games bya margin of 157/4.9 to 55/2.8. That latter set of numbers is the best inthe NFL. Home road dichotomy joins with a positive situation and theJets’ strong running numbers for this Dog of the Day.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | GREEN BAY at CHICAGO
Play Under - Any team against the total in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 40-100 YPG), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
87-44 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 38.6 units )

NFL | BUFFALO at HOUSTON
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (BUFFALO) after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game
35-6 over the last 5 seasons. ( 85.4% | 0.0 units )

NFL | ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game
29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
 
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Hondo

Hondo’s message for Texas

The Wolfpack beat the number against Florida State on Saturday, enabling Hondo to trim his NRN (nasty red number) to 1,625 motleys.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will cull from his NFL Best Bets and drop a 10-unit investment on the Texans to rebuff the Bills.
 
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Today's NFL Picks

New Orleans at Dallas

The Saints head to Dallas tonight and come into the contest with a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games in Week 4 of the season. New Orleans is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/24)
Game 251-252: Miami vs. Oakland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.688; Oakland 124.714
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3 1/2); Over
Game 253-254: Green Bay at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.523; Chicago 130.768
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-1 1/2); Under
Game 255-256: Buffalo at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.975; Houston 131.023
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Over
Game 257-258: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.743; Indianapolis 137.604
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12; 49
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7 1/2); Over
Game 259-260: Carolina at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.101; Baltimore 135.296
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Under
Game 261-262: Detroit at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.527; NY Jets 129.107
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Under
Game 263-264: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.271; Pittsburgh 131.103
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+7 1/2); Over
Game 265-266: Jacksonville at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 130.364; San Diego 135.034
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+13 1/2); Over
Game 267-268: Philadelphia at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 127.475; San Francisco 143.452
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 16; 47
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under
Game 269-270: Atlanta at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 130.316; Minnesota 131.600
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over
Game 271-272: New Orleans at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.600; Dallas 131.963
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Under

 
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Today's MLB Picks

Minnesota at Detroit

The Twins look to follow up yesterday's 12-3 win over the Tigers and come into today's contest with a 4-1 record in their last 5 games after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. Minnesota is the pick (+250) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+250). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.607; Cincinnati (Cueto) 17.113
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under
Game 953-954: Miami at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 15.728; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.668
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+160); Over
Game 955-956: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Russell) 13.449; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.997
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over
Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Turner) 15.332; Milwaukee (Fiers) 14.498
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+155); Under
Game 959-960: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 13.552; San Francisco (Heston) 15.109
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 961-962: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Bergman) 16.339; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.421
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+195); Under
Game 963-964: St. Louis at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.887; Arizona (Collmenter) 14.224
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-185); Over
Game 965-966: Minnesota at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 15.769; Detroit (Price) 14.649
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-300); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+250); Under
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.664; Cleveland (House) 14.139
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under
Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.509; Toronto (Dickey) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 15.895; Boston (Buchholz) 14.338
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125) 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Over
Game 973-974: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 14.337; White Sox (Bassitt) 15.201
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); Under
Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 15.739; Texas (Martinez) 14.288
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-200); Under
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Rasmus) 16.449; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.523
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-205); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+175); Over
Game 979-980: Houston at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Tropeano) 14.898; NY Mets (Colon) 13.908
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Under

 

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