Scott Delaney
80 DIME TENNESSEE (in the event this line goes to 3-1/2, be sure to buy the 1/2-point off this game and lay -3 points against Minnesota. Do not lay 3-1/2 points.) - The age-old cliche that defense wins certainly applies well to the Titans (3-0 SU and ATS), who know a thing a or two about clamping down on opponents. Take the first three games of this season, for example: Tennessee has yielded 10, seven and 12 points in those matchups -- for an average of under 10 ppg. Or even go back to last season, when the Titans held eight opponents to two TDs or less.
They've got the league's third-best "D" this season, allowing just 240 ypg. And they've got a Vikings team coming to town that will start a 37-year-old journeyman QB in Gus Frerotte. That will allow Tennessee to focus more on slowing RB Adrian Peterson. The betting numbers bear out a Titans play this week, as well, as they are on ATS runs of 7-0 in September, 4-1 against losing teams and 4-1 overall.
And when NFC teams come to Nashville, Tennessee knows how to get the job done, with a 12-4 ATS mark in its last 16 home non-conference clashes. On the flip side, you've got Minnesota (1-2 SU and ATS), which has a sound defense, but its middle-of-the-pack offense (17th in the league) will put too much pressure on its defense to bail the Vikes out against the Titans. The Vikings have cashed just once in their last six games, and they don't respond well to non-conference roadies, going 0-5-1 ATS the last six times in that situation. Take the Titans this week.
10 DIME ARIZONA - The Cardinals' best move for this game might prove to be the one they didn't make -- flying back to Arizona after last Sunday's loss at Washington. Instead, they smartly stayed on the East Coast, rather than criss-crossing the nation a couple of times leading up to this game. And it's an even smarter move in light of the Jets not only coming off a short week, but off a coast-to-coast road trip, as New York got pelted in San Diego 48-29 on Monday night.
The Redbirds (2-1 SU and ATS) won and cashed in their first two games, and they were certainly in it last week against the Redskins, losing 24-17 on a fourth-quarter TD as a three-point road pup. Plus, Arizona is a good bounce-back team to bet, with ATS runs of 10-3 after a SU loss and 8-3 after a pointspread setback, and they're on a 6-1 ATS run in September contests. The Jets, meanwhile, have cashed in just two of their last nine home games, and with QB Brett Favre nursing a gimpy ankle, the Arizona defense will look to take advantage of that. The Cards are the play in this one.
10 DIME PHILADELPHIA - I think most people would consider the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger a solid NFL quarterback. He limits his mistakes, he gets his team to the playoffs, and he even got a Super Bowl ring in just his second season. So if Roethlisberger got his lunch eaten last week in a 15-6 loss at Philadelphia -- going 13 of 25 for a paltry 131 yards, with one INT, two lost fumbles and an eye-popping eight sacks -- how do you think Chicago QB Kyle Orton will fare against the Eagles defense this week? The guess here is, not too well.
The Eagles (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) are No. 1 in the league against the run, allowing a suffocating 45.7 ypg rushing. Should that trend continue this week, all the pressure falls on Orton and the passing game -- and Philly fields the league's fourth-best defense in total yards, at just 242 per game. Plus, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (289.3 ypg passing) leads the NFL's sixth-best total offense (373 ypg). Add to that Philly's current 10-2 ATS tear on the highway, and the Bears' current 4-10 ATS freefall at home, and you've got to back the Eagles this week.
