Brandon Lang
Last Week 1 win 2 losses
Week before that: 0 wins 3 losses
Chiefs +10 vs. Broncos
The only organization in America that's had a worse September than the Chiefs is Dow Jones. Not only has Kansas City lost all three of its games, it has gotten outscored 78-32, including double-digit blowout losses to the lowly Falcons and Raiders. So what makes me think that the Chiefs can hang with the undefeated Broncos this week? One reason: My 12-year-old nephew and 10 of his buddies could march down the field and score on Denver's sieve-like defense. The Broncos are coming off two home games in which they surrendered 38 and 31 points, and escaped with two wins by a combined three points. So how can you trust such a porous defense to go on the road, in a hostile venue, against a rival, and cover double digits? I can't. And since the Chiefs are wisely going back to veteran QB Damon Huard in this game and former All-Pro RB Larry Johnson got on track last week at Atlanta with 121 rushing yards, I fully expect Kansas City to put up some points in this one.
Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry; the host is 11-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 15 clashes; and Kansas City is an incredible 18-4-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home underdog against AFC West foes. Bottom line: You may not have made any money this week supporting one floundering organization (Wall Street), but you can certainly make some on the Chiefs. Take the points.
49ers +5½ at Saints
Three things you can count on every September: The New York Mets will choke away a playoff berth, FOX will unveil a new reality show entitled, Yes, I Have No Dignity, and the Saints' "much-improved defense" will be exposed as being not improved at all. To that latter point: A week after letting Jason Campbell and the pedestrian Redskins' offense put up 29 points and 455 total yards, New Orleans went to Denver last week and got torched for 34 points and 369 yards. So, in a nutshell, the same rule applies here as in the Denver-Kansas City contest: It's difficult to cover a big pointspread when you can't stop an opponent from scoring. And make no mistake, this 49ers offense can put points on the board, having rolled up 33 and 31 on the Seahawks and Lions, respectively, the last two weeks. In fact, San Francisco quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has a higher passer rating (104.6) than that of Saints QB Drew Brees (103.9).
Speaking of Brees, sure, he's at the controls of an explosive weapon, but right now it's a weapon missing too many bullets. His top wide receiver, Marques Colston went down with a thumb injury in Week 1 and is still several weeks away from returning. Then this week, tight end Jeremy Shockey had hernia surgery and he's down for more than a month. Memo to Reggie Bush: Might want to check your health insurance coverage; you know how these things tend to happen in threes. New Orleans is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite in the Superdome, and they're laying too many points here.
Cardinals +2 at Jets
My sources informed me that Brett Favre sent a text message to Packers GM Ted Thompson this week that read as follows: "Hey Ted – Uh, any chance that $25 million please-stay-retired offer is still on the table?" Seriously, how do you think ol' No. 4 is feeling right now about his decision to un-retire and hitch his Hall-of-Fame wagon to the moribund Jets? His receivers can't get open, his offensive line provides about as much protection as a punctured condom, and his defense couldn't play dead in a western. (I think my 82-year-old grandmother could've gotten free in the Jets' secondary and scored a touchdown Monday night in San Diego - and she uses a walker to get around!) And if that's not bad enough, there's Favre's new coach, Eric "The Weenie" Mangini, who brilliantly decided to try an onside kick Monday after narrowing the deficit against the Chargers to 17-14. If they handed out Ph.D.s for surrendering momentum, "Mangenious" would have to build a new mantel.
So now the Jets, with a gimpy Favre (ankle injury) and playing on a short week after a miserable 3,000-mile flight home from San Diego, have to face an improving Cardinals team that prudently chose to remain on the East Coast after last week's tough 24-17 loss at Washington rather than go back home to Arizona and travel all the way back to New Jersey. Besides, do you think after watching Philip Rivers and his arsenal of weapons shred the Jets' defense Monday that Arizona's trio of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin are drooling over the fact that it's their turn to put up big numbers? Finally, remember that it was just two weeks ago that the Jets lost convincingly at home to Matt Cassel and the Patriots – the same Patriots who lost by 25 points at home to Miami last week. Throw in the fact that the Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and this one's a no-brainer.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Last Week 1 win 2 losses
Week before that: 0 wins 3 losses
Chiefs +10 vs. Broncos
The only organization in America that's had a worse September than the Chiefs is Dow Jones. Not only has Kansas City lost all three of its games, it has gotten outscored 78-32, including double-digit blowout losses to the lowly Falcons and Raiders. So what makes me think that the Chiefs can hang with the undefeated Broncos this week? One reason: My 12-year-old nephew and 10 of his buddies could march down the field and score on Denver's sieve-like defense. The Broncos are coming off two home games in which they surrendered 38 and 31 points, and escaped with two wins by a combined three points. So how can you trust such a porous defense to go on the road, in a hostile venue, against a rival, and cover double digits? I can't. And since the Chiefs are wisely going back to veteran QB Damon Huard in this game and former All-Pro RB Larry Johnson got on track last week at Atlanta with 121 rushing yards, I fully expect Kansas City to put up some points in this one.
Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry; the host is 11-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 15 clashes; and Kansas City is an incredible 18-4-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home underdog against AFC West foes. Bottom line: You may not have made any money this week supporting one floundering organization (Wall Street), but you can certainly make some on the Chiefs. Take the points.
49ers +5½ at Saints
Three things you can count on every September: The New York Mets will choke away a playoff berth, FOX will unveil a new reality show entitled, Yes, I Have No Dignity, and the Saints' "much-improved defense" will be exposed as being not improved at all. To that latter point: A week after letting Jason Campbell and the pedestrian Redskins' offense put up 29 points and 455 total yards, New Orleans went to Denver last week and got torched for 34 points and 369 yards. So, in a nutshell, the same rule applies here as in the Denver-Kansas City contest: It's difficult to cover a big pointspread when you can't stop an opponent from scoring. And make no mistake, this 49ers offense can put points on the board, having rolled up 33 and 31 on the Seahawks and Lions, respectively, the last two weeks. In fact, San Francisco quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has a higher passer rating (104.6) than that of Saints QB Drew Brees (103.9).
Speaking of Brees, sure, he's at the controls of an explosive weapon, but right now it's a weapon missing too many bullets. His top wide receiver, Marques Colston went down with a thumb injury in Week 1 and is still several weeks away from returning. Then this week, tight end Jeremy Shockey had hernia surgery and he's down for more than a month. Memo to Reggie Bush: Might want to check your health insurance coverage; you know how these things tend to happen in threes. New Orleans is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite in the Superdome, and they're laying too many points here.
Cardinals +2 at Jets
My sources informed me that Brett Favre sent a text message to Packers GM Ted Thompson this week that read as follows: "Hey Ted – Uh, any chance that $25 million please-stay-retired offer is still on the table?" Seriously, how do you think ol' No. 4 is feeling right now about his decision to un-retire and hitch his Hall-of-Fame wagon to the moribund Jets? His receivers can't get open, his offensive line provides about as much protection as a punctured condom, and his defense couldn't play dead in a western. (I think my 82-year-old grandmother could've gotten free in the Jets' secondary and scored a touchdown Monday night in San Diego - and she uses a walker to get around!) And if that's not bad enough, there's Favre's new coach, Eric "The Weenie" Mangini, who brilliantly decided to try an onside kick Monday after narrowing the deficit against the Chargers to 17-14. If they handed out Ph.D.s for surrendering momentum, "Mangenious" would have to build a new mantel.
So now the Jets, with a gimpy Favre (ankle injury) and playing on a short week after a miserable 3,000-mile flight home from San Diego, have to face an improving Cardinals team that prudently chose to remain on the East Coast after last week's tough 24-17 loss at Washington rather than go back home to Arizona and travel all the way back to New Jersey. Besides, do you think after watching Philip Rivers and his arsenal of weapons shred the Jets' defense Monday that Arizona's trio of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin are drooling over the fact that it's their turn to put up big numbers? Finally, remember that it was just two weeks ago that the Jets lost convincingly at home to Matt Cassel and the Patriots – the same Patriots who lost by 25 points at home to Miami last week. Throw in the fact that the Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and this one's a no-brainer.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (2-0-1)
4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28
4★ TENNESSEE over Minnesota - These teams are rather similar in that they feature smashmouth offenses with excellent RB’s & powerful physical defenses. MIN is 0-5-1 ATS away vs AFC teams. TEN is 12-4 ATS at
home vs the NFC. LW the Vikings made a surprise move by switching to QB Frerotte to salvage the season for a heavy preseason playoff favorite. Frerotte was decent & after a slow start fi nished with 204 yds (57%)
with a 1-1 ratio (7.3) but the defense was dominant as MIN outgained CAR 166-38 in the 2H. TEN’s defense has been ferocious TY as they are only allowing 89 ypg rushing (3.7), have 11 sacks, a 1-7 ratio & a 5.4 ypa.
Collins is doing enough in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest & the combo of Johnson & White has rushed for 141 ypg (4.3). While both teams are mirror images we’ll side with the home team that
has allowed 14 or less pts in 11 of its L19 games. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Minnesota 9
3★ OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30 - Neither CIN or CLE has had a fair shot to start the year as both teams have faced 3 straight top 10 defenses. CLE got its season on track LY with a 51-45 shootout win in
Wk 2 as a 7 pt HD only to lose ATS CIN 19-14 as a 2 pt AF in Wk 16. CLE has a much needed bye on deck to heal up & is 5-1-1 ATS before it. The favorite is 10-6 ATS. While Palmer had a good game LW with 286
yds (69%) with a 1-0 ratio vs NYG they only have 3 offensive TD’s in 3 games. They revamped the defense in the offseason but have been outrushed 174 (4.7)-97 (3.3) & the offense has only converted 15 of 49 3rd Dns (35%). Anderson started out 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS LY & avg 262 ypg passing (58%) with a 23-12 ratio (89.4 QBR) & 7.6 ypa. Anderson is 3-4 SU & ATS & has avg’d 161 ypg (51%) with a 7-10 ratio (57.6 QBR)
& a horrible 5.3 ypa since. It’s been 10 years since an 0-3 team made the playoffs & after LW’s close loss it’s business as usual for CIN. CLE however was billed as a playoff team before the season & look for them to go all out to snare a win before the bye as both QB’s vent their frustration in a higher scoring game.
FORECAST: OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30
OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20 - HOU is the 1st team since 1991 to start the season with 3 road games. The Texans are 9-3 ATS vs the Jaguars. LY JAX beat HOU 37-17 as a 6.5 pt HF. HOU drove inside
the JAX 10 on their 1st 2 drives but settled for a FG & fumbled the ball away. JAX had TD drives of 76, 81, 78, & 73 yds along with a 77 yd fumble return for a TD. HOU is 5-13 ATS on the road while JAX is 5-13 ATS as a division favorite. QB Schaub was very rusty LW vs TEN with only 188 yds passing (45%) and an 0-3 ratio (5.1 ypa). HOU did fi nally fi nd a RB as Slaton rushed for 116 yds (6.4). The Jags stuck to what they do best with the run & defense LW & beat IND on a 51 yd FG with :08 left. JAX outrushed IND 236 (4.9) to 114 (6.0) & had a huge 41:35 to 18:25 TOP edge. Garrard is back to his role as game manager & he only had 167 yds (73%) with an int LW & JAX WR situation simply doesn’t give JAX the ability to engage in a shootout. We’ll side with the Ugly Dog (18-9 67%) getting generous points vs a JAX team that has a tough SNF game vs PIT
on deck and will just be happy to get a SU win here. FORECAST: Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20
2★ San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28 - This is the 3rd year in a row & 12th in 10 years that these former NFC West foes square off with NO going 9-2 ATS. Brees has avg’d 261 ypg (72%) with a 5-0 ratio in
his 2 meetings vs SF beating them by a combined 65-20. LY NO jumped out to a 31-3 lead before allowing an 80 yd 15 play drive to SF in garbage time as the Saints had a 26-15 FD & 438-260 yd edge as a 2 pt
AF. NO is 5-14 ATS as a HF. SF is 2-6 ATS as an AD. NO returns home after 2 road games while the 49ers are off a “Martz” revenge game vs DET. SF mauled DET with 14-4 FD & 224-67 yd edges with a 21-3 lead.
In his L2 games O’Sullivan has passed for 255 yds (66%) with a 3-0 ratio & 113.4 QBR. SF’s pass defense was 21st LY but thanks to the better efforts of the offense to keep them fresh they are 8th at this point with
a 5.5 ypa. Brees once again had an outstanding game LW passing for 421 yds (81%) with a 1-0 ratio but the run game only gained 88 yds (3.5) vs DEN #27 rush defense. After 3 high scoring & taxing games. NO
is in a fl at spot with a MNF HG on deck vs MIN. SF delivered as our 4★ Key Selection LW here & look for SF to make this a surprisingly close game. FORECAST: San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28
4★ TENNESSEE over Minnesota - These teams are rather similar in that they feature smashmouth offenses with excellent RB’s & powerful physical defenses. MIN is 0-5-1 ATS away vs AFC teams. TEN is 12-4 ATS at
home vs the NFC. LW the Vikings made a surprise move by switching to QB Frerotte to salvage the season for a heavy preseason playoff favorite. Frerotte was decent & after a slow start fi nished with 204 yds (57%)
with a 1-1 ratio (7.3) but the defense was dominant as MIN outgained CAR 166-38 in the 2H. TEN’s defense has been ferocious TY as they are only allowing 89 ypg rushing (3.7), have 11 sacks, a 1-7 ratio & a 5.4 ypa.
Collins is doing enough in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest & the combo of Johnson & White has rushed for 141 ypg (4.3). While both teams are mirror images we’ll side with the home team that
has allowed 14 or less pts in 11 of its L19 games. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Minnesota 9
3★ OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30 - Neither CIN or CLE has had a fair shot to start the year as both teams have faced 3 straight top 10 defenses. CLE got its season on track LY with a 51-45 shootout win in
Wk 2 as a 7 pt HD only to lose ATS CIN 19-14 as a 2 pt AF in Wk 16. CLE has a much needed bye on deck to heal up & is 5-1-1 ATS before it. The favorite is 10-6 ATS. While Palmer had a good game LW with 286
yds (69%) with a 1-0 ratio vs NYG they only have 3 offensive TD’s in 3 games. They revamped the defense in the offseason but have been outrushed 174 (4.7)-97 (3.3) & the offense has only converted 15 of 49 3rd Dns (35%). Anderson started out 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS LY & avg 262 ypg passing (58%) with a 23-12 ratio (89.4 QBR) & 7.6 ypa. Anderson is 3-4 SU & ATS & has avg’d 161 ypg (51%) with a 7-10 ratio (57.6 QBR)
& a horrible 5.3 ypa since. It’s been 10 years since an 0-3 team made the playoffs & after LW’s close loss it’s business as usual for CIN. CLE however was billed as a playoff team before the season & look for them to go all out to snare a win before the bye as both QB’s vent their frustration in a higher scoring game.
FORECAST: OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30
OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20 - HOU is the 1st team since 1991 to start the season with 3 road games. The Texans are 9-3 ATS vs the Jaguars. LY JAX beat HOU 37-17 as a 6.5 pt HF. HOU drove inside
the JAX 10 on their 1st 2 drives but settled for a FG & fumbled the ball away. JAX had TD drives of 76, 81, 78, & 73 yds along with a 77 yd fumble return for a TD. HOU is 5-13 ATS on the road while JAX is 5-13 ATS as a division favorite. QB Schaub was very rusty LW vs TEN with only 188 yds passing (45%) and an 0-3 ratio (5.1 ypa). HOU did fi nally fi nd a RB as Slaton rushed for 116 yds (6.4). The Jags stuck to what they do best with the run & defense LW & beat IND on a 51 yd FG with :08 left. JAX outrushed IND 236 (4.9) to 114 (6.0) & had a huge 41:35 to 18:25 TOP edge. Garrard is back to his role as game manager & he only had 167 yds (73%) with an int LW & JAX WR situation simply doesn’t give JAX the ability to engage in a shootout. We’ll side with the Ugly Dog (18-9 67%) getting generous points vs a JAX team that has a tough SNF game vs PIT
on deck and will just be happy to get a SU win here. FORECAST: Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20
2★ San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28 - This is the 3rd year in a row & 12th in 10 years that these former NFC West foes square off with NO going 9-2 ATS. Brees has avg’d 261 ypg (72%) with a 5-0 ratio in
his 2 meetings vs SF beating them by a combined 65-20. LY NO jumped out to a 31-3 lead before allowing an 80 yd 15 play drive to SF in garbage time as the Saints had a 26-15 FD & 438-260 yd edge as a 2 pt
AF. NO is 5-14 ATS as a HF. SF is 2-6 ATS as an AD. NO returns home after 2 road games while the 49ers are off a “Martz” revenge game vs DET. SF mauled DET with 14-4 FD & 224-67 yd edges with a 21-3 lead.
In his L2 games O’Sullivan has passed for 255 yds (66%) with a 3-0 ratio & 113.4 QBR. SF’s pass defense was 21st LY but thanks to the better efforts of the offense to keep them fresh they are 8th at this point with
a 5.5 ypa. Brees once again had an outstanding game LW passing for 421 yds (81%) with a 1-0 ratio but the run game only gained 88 yds (3.5) vs DEN #27 rush defense. After 3 high scoring & taxing games. NO
is in a fl at spot with a MNF HG on deck vs MIN. SF delivered as our 4★ Key Selection LW here & look for SF to make this a surprisingly close game. FORECAST: San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
THE GOLD SHEET
THE GOLD SHEET (3-6)
KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game
CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10—Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after
opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender (Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta “D” might be under new HC Mike Smith, it’s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did Minnesota’s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs’ two wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on road to compensate.
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0) (07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1) (07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10
OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24—The Rams’ back
seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58 of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more! Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load for improving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis “over” 17-8-1 its last 26 at home.
(04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
THE GOLD SHEET (3-6)
KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game
CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10—Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after
opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender (Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta “D” might be under new HC Mike Smith, it’s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did Minnesota’s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs’ two wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on road to compensate.
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0) (07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1) (07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10
OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24—The Rams’ back
seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58 of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more! Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load for improving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis “over” 17-8-1 its last 26 at home.
(04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (2-3)
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (1-3).
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-3)
5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.
SUNDAY
4* BEST BET
Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in
overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions
are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that
with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season
are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7
points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and
the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look
for Romeo to come calling today.
3* BEST BET
Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to
take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer
lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams
last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the
campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses.
We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more
than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing. No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off an away game. Take Tex.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (1-3).
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-3)
5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.
SUNDAY
4* BEST BET
Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in
overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions
are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that
with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season
are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7
points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and
the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look
for Romeo to come calling today.
3* BEST BET
Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to
take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer
lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams
last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the
campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses.
We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more
than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing. No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off an away game. Take Tex.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
THE RED SHEET
THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)
THE RED SHEET 89* (0-0)
THE RED SHEET 88* (1-2)
CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.RATING: CAROLINA 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Chargers, Bills, Steelers
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)
THE RED SHEET 89* (0-0)
THE RED SHEET 88* (1-2)
CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.RATING: CAROLINA 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Chargers, Bills, Steelers
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
WILLIE "D"
Elite HOUSTON
Blue Chip ATLANTA/CAROLINA OVER
Inside Info MINNESOTA
Primetime Shocker CHICAGO
"LEGS" DIAMOND
Bookie Total Nightmare Play Tampa Bay / Green Bay Over
Sunday Night Bookie Massacre Play Chicago
RANDY MITCHEL
Diamond CHICAGO
Platinum HOUSTON
Platinum GREEN BAY/TAMPA BAY OVER
Gold OAKLAND
WILLIE "D"
Elite HOUSTON
Blue Chip ATLANTA/CAROLINA OVER
Inside Info MINNESOTA
Primetime Shocker CHICAGO
"LEGS" DIAMOND
Bookie Total Nightmare Play Tampa Bay / Green Bay Over
Sunday Night Bookie Massacre Play Chicago
RANDY MITCHEL
Diamond CHICAGO
Platinum HOUSTON
Platinum GREEN BAY/TAMPA BAY OVER
Gold OAKLAND
2 2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL PICK! (S)
Pick # 1 Atlanta Falcons (7.0)
1 2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL BEST BET WINNER $0.00
Pick # 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.0)
2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Pick # 1 San Diego Chargers / Oakland Raiders Under 45 -110
Pick # 1 Atlanta Falcons (7.0)
1 2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL BEST BET WINNER $0.00
Pick # 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.0)
2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Pick # 1 San Diego Chargers / Oakland Raiders Under 45 -110
GT Bookie Battle YTD (3-3-1) LY (as posted on this forum: 22-12)
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday. The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side. Over the last couple of years there hasn't been a lot of action, but it seemed to hit around 60%.
Let’s see how this angle has worked so far this year.
Week #1 thru #2: 3-3-1 (Can’t seem to get beyond breakeven)
Week #3 Picks are on: CAR and BAL
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday. The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side. Over the last couple of years there hasn't been a lot of action, but it seemed to hit around 60%.
Let’s see how this angle has worked so far this year.
Week #1 thru #2: 3-3-1 (Can’t seem to get beyond breakeven)
Week #3 Picks are on: CAR and BAL
Burns
UNDER raiders/chargers
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: under *AFC West TOY
ST LOUIS
Game: Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Rams *Non-Conf. GOW
UNDER bears/eagles
Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Game Time: 9/28/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under *Main Event
TAMPA BAY
Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 9/28/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers *NFL GOM
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
UNDER raiders/chargers
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: under *AFC West TOY
ST LOUIS
Game: Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Rams *Non-Conf. GOW
UNDER bears/eagles
Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Game Time: 9/28/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under *Main Event
TAMPA BAY
Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 9/28/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers *NFL GOM
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
