SPORTS ADVISORS
Denver (3-0, 1-1-1 ATS) at Kansas City (0-3, 1-2 ATS)
The Broncos, who are coming off two lucky home victories, make the trek to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the hapless Chiefs in an AFC West contest.
Denver, which benefited from an official’s mistake in beating the Chargers two weeks ago, barely got off the hook again last week, edging New Orleans 34-32 as a five-point home chalk after the Saints missed a late game-winning field goal try. QB Jay Cutler (21 of 34, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had another solid day, boosting his TD-to-INT ratio to 8-2, and WR Brandon Marshall (6 catches, 155 yards, 1 TD) also had a big game. However, the Broncos defense gave up a whopping 502 total yards, including 421 through the air.
Kansas City, playing musical quarterbacks so far this year, got throttled 38-14 by Atlanta as a 6½-point road underdog for its 12th straight loss (4-8 ATS). Tyler Thigpen was an awful 14 of 36 for 128 yards with one TD and three INTs, one of which was returned for a score. RB Larry Johnson (24 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD) fueled a 184-yard rushing attack, but the Chiefs defense gave up 186 yards on the ground.
With Thigpen having struggled in his first two starts, Chiefs coach Herm Edwards said that veteran Damon Huard will return under center for this game.
Denver won and covered both meetings between these rivals last year by a combined score of 68-18, ending a 3-0 ATS run by Kansas City. However, the home team is still 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 battles, and K.C. is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings at Arrowhead.
The Broncos are mired in ATS funks of 7-19-1 overall, 1-4 on the highway, 3-10-1 in divisional play, 2-5 in division road games, 1-6-1 against losing teams and 3-13-1 following a SU win. The Chiefs aren’t much better at the betting window, carrying negative ATS trends of 0-6 at home, 0-5 in AFC West play, 1-5 against winning teams and 2-6 after a SU loss.
The over has cashed in 10 of the last 13 Broncos-Chiefs clashes overall and six of the last seven in K.C. In addition, the over for Denver is on tears of 6-0 in September, 8-1 inside the division, 22-6-1 overall and 6-2 in roadies, and for Kansas City, the total has gone high in five of its last seven home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cleveland (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Cincinnati (0-3, 1-2 ATS)
Two instate rivals desperate for a win get together when the Browns make the short trip to Paul Brown Stadium for an AFC North clash with the Bengals.
Cleveland lost to Baltimore 28-10 as a one-point road pup in Week 3. QB Derek Anderson continued to struggle, going a dismal 14 of 37 for 125 yards with one TD against three INTs. The Browns finished with just 169 total yards, while allowing 273, and they were on the short end of a nearly 16-minute difference in time of possession.
Cincinnati easily had its best showing so far this year, taking the Super Bowl champion Giants to overtime before losing 26-23, cashing as a 13-point road ‘dog. QB Carson Palmer (27 of 39, 286 yards) finally tossed his first TD pass of the year, hitting WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (12 catches, 146 yards). The Bengals had no turnovers, but they didn’t force any either, and they gave up 406 yards.
Cincy has gone 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in the last seven games in this rivalry, with the home team winning and covering last year’s two meetings.
Despite the Browns’ slow start, they still sport ATS streaks of 13-5 overall, 5-2 in the AFC North, 5-1 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a SU loss. The Bengals are on ATS slides of 1-6 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against losing teams, but they are on a 9-3 cashing spree in their last 12 September starts.
Although these two teams were involved in 51-45 shootout in Cleveland last year, the under has been the smarter play for both squads recently. For the Browns, the under is on runs of 8-1 overall, 4-0 against losing teams and 5-1 against the AFC. The under for Cincinnati has cashed in seven of its last nine overall and is on further runs of 5-0 in division play, 4-0 at home and 6-1 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER
Houston (0-2 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars, coming off their first victory of the season, return home to Alltel Stadium to host the AFC South rival Texans.
Jacksonville knocked off Indianapolis 23-21 as a four-point road pup, winning on Josh Scobee’s 51-yard field goal in the final seconds. The Jags leaned heavily on a running game that produced an eye-popping 236 yards, as RBs Fred Taylor (26 carries, 121 yards) and Maurice Jones-Drew (19 carries, 107 yards, 1 TD) both cracked 100 yards. Jacksonville had a staggering 41:35-18:25 edge in time of possession and outgained the Colts 403-325.
Houston returned to action after a weather-imposed week off due to Hurricane Ike, but it wasn’t aided by the extra rest, losing 31-12 at Tennessee catching 4½ points. With rookie Steve Slaton (18 carries, 116 yards, 1 TD) leading the way, the Texans ran for 146, but QB Matt Schaub (17 of 37, 188 yards) proved to be their undoing with three INTs, including a late fourth-quarter pick returned 99 yards for a TD.
The Texans are 9-3 ATS in the short history of this rivalry, with the underdog going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The two teams split last year’s contests SU and ATS, with the host winning and cashing each time.
The Jaguars are on a 5-13 ATS slide as a division chalk and are on a 2-5 ATS dip in September games, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at Alltel, 6-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a spread-cover. The Texans are on ATS skids of 0-5 on the highway, 1-5 in division play, 3-9 against the AFC, 3-8 in September, 3-7 following a SU loss and 3-7 after a pointspread setback.
The under has been the play in four of the last five series meetings between these teams in Jacksonville. But the over for the Jags is on tears of 11-2-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 inside the division and 8-2-2 in AFC contests, and the over for Houston is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the road and 13-3 against AFC South foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Arizona (2-1 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Jets hope to get the Brett Favre era back on track when they return home to East Rutherford, N.J., for a non-conference contest against the Cardinals.
New York got pounded 49-28 at San Diego in prime time Monday night, falling way short as a nine-point road underdog. Favre threw 42 times, completing 30 for 271 yards and three TDs, but he had two INTs – one returned for a TD and the other converted into a 45-yard scoring drive. The Jets lost the turnover battle 4-1 and the time-of-possession battle by nearly five minutes.
Arizona is coming off a 24-17 loss at Washington as a three-point road underdog. QB Kurt Warner (16 of 30, 192 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) slipped a bit from his performance of the first two weeks, and in an otherwise evenly played game, the Cards lost the turnover battle 2-0 and had a six-minute time-of-possession deficit.
These two teams have met just once this decade, with New York taking a 13-3 road win as a three-point favorite in 2004.
The Jets are on a 2-6-1 ATS slide at home, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 after a SU loss and 12-5 after a pointspread setback. The Cardinals are on spread-covering runs of 6-1 in September, 10-3 after a SU loss and 8-3 after a non-cover.
The under for New York has cashed in four straight home games and is on further streaks of 6-1 overall, 6-0 against winning teams and 7-3-1 in September. Conversely, the over for Arizona is on tears of 8-3 overall, 37-15 on the road and 24-7 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Francisco (2-1 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Saints, who are a couple of plays away from being 3-0, look to get back in the win column at the Superdome when they take on the 49ers.
New Orleans, which gave up two TDs to blow a fourth-quarter lead at Washington two weeks ago, had a potential game-winning field goal go wide right last week in a 34-32 loss at Denver, thought the Saints cashed as a five-point pup. The missed field goal wasted a huge day from QB Drew Brees (39 of 48, 421 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), as the Saints finished with a whopping 502 total yards, while allowing 369.
San Francisco pounded Detroit 31-13 giving five points at home – which led the Lions to finally firing embattled team president Matt Millen. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (16 of 23, 189 yards, 2 TDs) was terrific, and the 49ers ran for 182 yards, paced by RB Frank Gore’s 130 yards and a TD on 27 carries. The Niners also forced a pair of turnovers while committing none in winning their second straight game.
New Orleans has owned this series of former division rivals, going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes. The Saints have won the last three meetings outright (2-1 ATS), including routs of 34-10 at home two years ago and 31-10 on the road last year. The favorite has cashed in four of the last five showdowns.
The Saints are in a 4-11 ATS decline as a home chalk dating to 2006, and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a spread-cover, but they won and covered at home against Tampa in Week 1 and they’ve cashed in four of their last five games following a SU defeat. Meanwhile, despite winning and cashing the past two weeks, the 49ers are in pointspread funks of 2-6 after an ATS win, 2-6 on the highway and 4-9 against the NFC.
New Orleans’ all-offense, no-defense philosophy has led to a bevy of high-scoring games, as the Saints are on over streaks of 6-0 overall, 6-0 at home, 14-3 versus NFC foes and 4-1 in September. The over is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Saints and Niners.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Atlanta (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Falcons, off to a surprising start behind a rookie QB and new head coach, travel north to Charlotte for an NFC South clash with the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Atlanta, seemingly getting it together quickly under coach Mike Smith, ripped lowly Kansas City 38-13 as a 6½-point home favorite in Week 3. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (12 of 18, 192 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) wasn’t asked to do much, but he didn’t make any mistakes, and RB Michael Turner (23 carries, 104 yards, 3 TDs) had another big day. The Falcons also forced three turnovers, returning an INT for a TD late in the fourth quarter.
Carolina tasted defeat for the first time in 2008 last week, blowing a 10-0 lead and losing 20-10 at Minnesota as a 3½-point underdog, with the Panthers failing to score in the second half. QB Jake Delhomme led an offense that generated just 204 total yards – to the Vikings’ 305 – and he was sacked five times and lost two of his three fumbles, with one of those run back for a TD just before halftime to tie the game at 10.
These division rivals split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and cashing each time. In fact, the visitor has covered the spread in the last five battles, and the Falcons are 13-6-4 ATS in the last 23 head-to-head meetings overall and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes in Carolina.
The Falcons are on a 3-9-1 pointspread slide as a division pup and are on additional ATS skids of 0-4 inside the division and 1-4 against winning teams. The Panthers are on a 3-7-1 ATS nosedive in Charlotte, but they still carry positive ATS trends of 4-1-1 overall and 4-0 after a SU loss.
Atlanta is on a 9-1 “over” tear overall, but the under is on a 32-12-1 in the team’s last 45 road games and 9-4 in its last 13 division tilts. Likewise, the under for Carolina is on runs of 11-5 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-1 in division play and 21-8-2 in September. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five straight games at Carolina and is 11-4-1 in the last 16 matchups overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (1-2 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (3-0 SU and ATS)
The Titans put their perfect mark on the line when they step outside the AFC for a clash against the Vikings at LP Field.
Tennessee breezed past Houston 31-12 as a 4½-point home favorite, easily cashing for the third straight week. QB Kerry Collins, who apparently will remain the starter even when Vince Young (knee) returns, had a serviceable effort in going 13-for-25 for 185 yards with one TD and one INT. He was aided by a ground attack that produced 158 yards, and a defense that picked off Houston’s Matt Schaub three times, with Cortland Finnegan returning the last one 99 yards for a TD with a little more than a minute to play to secure the spread-cover.
Minnesota broke through for its first win by beating Carolina 20-10 as a 3½-point home chalk, scoring 20 unanswered points after falling behind 10-0 early in the second quarter. New starting QB Gus Frerotte (16 of 28, 204 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) fared OK, but the Vikings defense was the difference, recovering two fumbles (one for a TD) and allowing just 204 total yards as Minnesota finished with a nearly nine-minute edge in time of possession.
The Vikings are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this series, though the two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Minnesota scored a 20-3 home win laying six points.
The Titans are on a 12-4 ATS tear at home against NFC foes, and they are on additional ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 7-0 in September and 4-1 against losing teams. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six outings overall.
The “under” has been the play for both these teams lately. For Tennessee, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 in September and 11-2-1 after a SU win, while the under for Minnesota is on runs of 7-2-1 in September, 22-6-1 after a pointspread win and 22-7-1 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Packers, coming off their first loss of the Aaron Rodgers era, make a trip to the Sunshine State to take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
Green Bay looks to bounce back from Sunday night’s lopsided 27-16 home loss to Dallas as a three-point pup. Rodgers had respectable numbers (22 of 39, 290 yards, no TDs, no INTs), but he lost 40 yards on five sacks and didn’t lead a TD drive until running it in from a yard out for a meaningless score late in the fourth quarter. The Pack also allowed 453 total yards, including RB Marion Barber’s 142 rushing yards and one TD.
Tampa Bay rallied past Chicago 27-24 in overtime as a three-point road pup, winning on a Matt Bryant 24-yard field goal. The Bucs pretty much conceded trying to run the ball, as QB Brian Griese threw a whopping 67 passes, completing 38 for 407 yards with two TDs and three INTs. Tampa, which trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter, pulled it out despite losing the turnover battle 4-2 and finishing with an eight-minute deficit in time of possession.
The Bucs beat Green Bay 17-16 as a three-point road favorite in 2005, the last time these two former division rivals met. The Packers have covered the last two contests after going 1-6-1 in the previous eight meetings.
The Buccaneers are on positive pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 7-2 as a home chalk, 5-1 in September and 19-9-2 when hosting non-division opponents. The Packers are also on several ATS runs, including 5-1 overall, 10-2-1 on the highway, 5-0-1 after a SU loss, 7-0-2 after a non-cover. But Green Bay is in ATS ruts of 4-9-4 against winning teams and 2-6-1 following a double-digit home loss.
The over for Green Bay is on stretches of 16-5 overall, 6-0 as a visitor and 13-3 against NFC foes, and the over for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 7-2 overall and 6-2 against the NFC. But in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 at Raymond James Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Buffalo (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-3 SU and ATS)
The surprising Bills look to stay perfect with a victory against the lackluster Rams in a non-conference contest at the Edward Jones Dome.
Buffalo rallied for a 24-23 home victory over Oakland, falling far short as a 10-point chalk. The Bills scored 17 fourth-quarter points, winning on Rian Lindell’s 38-yard field goal as time expired. QB Trent Edwards (24 of 39, 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was steady enough to help Buffalo overcome a 3-1 turnover deficit, and the Bills held a 378-247 total yardage edge and a nine-minute advantage in time of possession.
St. Louis got pounded 37-13 at Seattle last week getting nine points – the third straight week the Rams have been ‘dogs of nine or more and not come close to cashing. QB Marc Bulger (18 of 31, 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was mediocre in leading, and St. Louis got outgained 407-240. Following the setback to the Seahawks, the Rams – who have scored just 29 points all season – made a QB change, as veteran Trent Green will start against the Bills.
These two squads have squared off just once this decade in the regular season, with Buffalo rolling 37-17 as a two-point home favorite in 2004.
The Bills are on a bevy of ATS tears, including 5-1 against the NFC, 5-2 in roadies, 12-4 on turf, 10-4-1 after a SU win and 38-18-3 against losing teams. Conversely, the Rams sport nothing but negative pointspread numbers, including 0-6 overall, 0-5 as a home ‘dog, 2-7 at home, 5-16 against winning teams and 7-21-3 in September.
The under for Buffalo has cashed in four straight on the highway and is on further streaks of 4-1 against losing teams and 12-5 in September. For St. Louis, the over is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 8-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
San Diego (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at Oakland (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Chargers, who finally nabbed their first win of the season last week, travel up the California coast for a matchup with the division rival Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
San Diego whipped the Jets 48-29 on Monday night as a heavy nine-point favorite. QB Philip Rivers overcame an early INT return for a touchdown to finish an efficient 19 of 25 for 250 yards and three TDs, and the Chargers won the turnover battle 4-1, with CB Antonio Cromartie returning one of his two picks for a TD.
Oakland blew a 16-7 fourth-quarter lead in losing at Buffalo 24-23 a week ago, though the Raiders cashed as a 10-point pup. JaMarcus Russell (9 of 19, 156 yards, 1 TD) still hasn’t thrown an INT this season, but the Raiders generated just 247 total yards against the Bills in failing to take advantage of a 3-1 turnover edge.
San Diego has ripped off nine straight victories against Oakland (8-1 ATS, all as a favorite), including winning and cashing in both contests last year. The Bolts are on a 6-0 ATS run at Oakland, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes.
The Chargers are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 45-21-3 overall, 5-0-1 on the highway, 8-1 after a SU win, 8-1 after a spread-cover, 19-7-4 in AFC West play, 8-3-1 in divisional road tilts and 5-0 against squads with a losing record. On the flip side, Oakland is on ATS freefalls of 11-29-1 at McAfee Coliseum since 2003, 2-11 in divisional home games and 5-13 as a home pup.
For San Diego, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 12-3-2 on the road and 6-0 in September, and the over for Oakland is on streaks of 6-1 in September, 4-1 inside the division and 8-2 overall. However, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Chargers-Raiders tussles
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The Cowboys look to keep rolling when they welcome the NFC East rival Redskins to Texas Stadium.
Dallas coasted past Green Bay 27-16 in prime time Sunday night as a three-point road chalk. QB Tony Romo (17 of 30, 260 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was steady, but the Cowboys’ running game stole the show, pounding out 217 yards, including 142 and a TD from Marion Barber. Also, the Cowboys defense yielded just three field goals before giving up a meaningless late TD.
Washington held off Arizona 24-17 giving three points at home for its second straight win and cover (both at home). QB Jason Campbell (22 of 30, 193 yards, 2 TDs) was solid, and the Redskins were turnover-free while forcing a pair of Cardinals miscues.
The Redskins have cashed in five of the last six games in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. In last yea’s battle at Texas Stadium, Washington lost 28-23 but covered as a heavy 11-point pup. The underdog is on a 17-4 ATS tear when these teams meet, though the host is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups, and Dallas is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests at Texas Stadium.
The Cowboys are on pointspread dips of 2-6 overall, 0-5 in the NFC East, 1-5 in home division games and 3-7 laying more than seven points. The Redskins, meanwhile, are just 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 roadies, but they are on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 21-8-1 against winning teams.
The under for Dallas has been the play in six of its last seven overall and is also on a 5-1 run versus NFC foes, and the under for Washington is on streaks of 5-1 in September and 5-2 in division play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and UNDER
Philadelphia (2-1, 3-0 ATS) at Chicago (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Eagles, who are perfect at the betting window so far, hit the highway for the second time this year when invade Soldier Field to take on the Bears.
Philadelphia last week grinded out a 15-6 victory over Pittsburgh laying 3½ points at home, outscoring the Steelers by a less-than-robust 5-0 margin in the second half. QB Donovan McNabb (24 of 35, 196 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was mediocre in a game that was fairly ugly all the way around, with both teams committing three turnovers and Philly gaining just 260 total yards – yet holding the Steelers to just 180 total yards.
Chicago squandered a 10-point fourth-quarter lead last week against Tampa Bay, falling 27-24 in overtime as a three-point home favorite. QB Kyle Orton (22 of 34, 268 yards) offset two TD passes with a pair of INTs, and though both teams moved the ball (454-405 total yardage edge for Tampa), the Bears’ defense gave up a ridiculous 407 passing yards to journeyman QB Brian Griese.
Chicago beat Philadelphia 19-16 catching 5½ points on the road last year, ending the Eagles’ 5-0 SU run (3-2 ATS) in this rivalry. In addition, the underdog and the road team are both 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Philly is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games, including cashing in the last seven in a row. The Eagles also sport ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against the NFC and 4-1 in September.
The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread downturns of 4-10 at Soldier Field and 1-6-1 in September.
The over has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last six on the road, but otherwise the team is in the midst of under stretches of 5-2 overall and 19-7-3 against losing teams. Meanwhile, the over for Chicago is on runs of 16-5 at home and 20-6-1 in conference contests. Finally, the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
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