Point Train’s NFL Game of the Week
– September 11
6-Unit - #473 NY Giants (PK) over Dallas – 3:25 PM CST
Dallas is kicking off its ’16 campaign with rookie 4th round pick Dak Prescott under
center. While Prescott looked solid in preseason, that’s not a good indication of what
he’ll be facing Sunday afternoon against the rival Giants. Teams dumb down defensive
schemes and Dak was playing against mostly 2nd string defenders. Playing at home for
the Cowboys won’t give Dak the advantage he needs here. The Cowboys were just 1-7
SU & 1-6-1 ATS at home last season (the only win coming with Tony Romo under
center). The Giants have covered three straight against the Cowboys and will make it
four straight on Sunday afternoon. Take the G-Men.
– September 11
6-Unit - #473 NY Giants (PK) over Dallas – 3:25 PM CST
Dallas is kicking off its ’16 campaign with rookie 4th round pick Dak Prescott under
center. While Prescott looked solid in preseason, that’s not a good indication of what
he’ll be facing Sunday afternoon against the rival Giants. Teams dumb down defensive
schemes and Dak was playing against mostly 2nd string defenders. Playing at home for
the Cowboys won’t give Dak the advantage he needs here. The Cowboys were just 1-7
SU & 1-6-1 ATS at home last season (the only win coming with Tony Romo under
center). The Giants have covered three straight against the Cowboys and will make it
four straight on Sunday afternoon. Take the G-Men.
ASI
MLB
PATRICK (127-95 +15.78)
Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres UNDER 8.5 +105 (440PM)
JEFF (113-109 -3.42)
San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 -105 (4PM)
Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros OVER 7.5 -110 (8PM)
DAVID (110-108 -.59)
Baltimore Orioles +137 Detroit Tigers (1PM)
WNBA
JEFF (23-31 -13.20)
Minnesota Lynx /San Antonio Stars UNDER 154.5 (430PM)
SOCCER
SIMON (209-181 +2.90)
ITALY - SERIE A
(UNDER 2.5 -135) ACF Fiorentina @ Genoa CFC (9AM)
SPAIN - LA LIGA
(UNDER 2.5 -123) SD Eibar @ Granada CF (1215PM)
MLB
PATRICK (127-95 +15.78)
Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres UNDER 8.5 +105 (440PM)
JEFF (113-109 -3.42)
San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 -105 (4PM)
Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros OVER 7.5 -110 (8PM)
DAVID (110-108 -.59)
Baltimore Orioles +137 Detroit Tigers (1PM)
WNBA
JEFF (23-31 -13.20)
Minnesota Lynx /San Antonio Stars UNDER 154.5 (430PM)
SOCCER
SIMON (209-181 +2.90)
ITALY - SERIE A
(UNDER 2.5 -135) ACF Fiorentina @ Genoa CFC (9AM)
SPAIN - LA LIGA
(UNDER 2.5 -123) SD Eibar @ Granada CF (1215PM)
Scott rickenbach
SUNDAY MLB analysis (2 plays):
AL Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles
Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 3:35 ET Sunday - The Angels will have have Jered Weaver on the mound. The
veteran right-hander did have to exit his most recent start after being hit by a line drive. Not only could
that be impacting to his psyche in this start, his overall numbers have not been impressive so I expect a
return to "normalcy" for Weaver and that means he should get hit hard here. Weaver gave up 5 earned
runs in 4 innings in his most recent start which was his first September outing. In August Weaver
compiled a 5.45 ERA and was hit at a .357 clip so certainly he was fortunate that his ERA wasn't uglier!
This season, in home starts, Weaver has been hit at a .316 clip so I don't expect things to improve
against Texas today. The Rangers will have Colby Lewis on the mound and he's just coming back from
the DL. The way his rehab assignment went (hit hard in the minors) I certainly don't expect things to go
well for him here against a tough Angels lineup. LA got their sticks going again yesterday but fell short in
the 8-5 loss to Texas. The over is now 11-1 in the Rangers last 12 games! Also, Lewis has allowed 13
earned runs in his last 16 innings against the Angels. Look for him to struggle again here and Weaver will
continue his trend of being very hittable as well and that spells o-v-e-r in this one. 10* OVER in Los
Angeles Angels Sunday
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 - 8* Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) @ Houston Astros @
8:05 ET Sunday - After opening up around a -170 this line has come all the way down to a -140 as of
early Sunday morning. This gets the Cubs into my "play range" here as long-time followers know I play
mostly totals in MLB with some dogs and small faves mixed in. I do not play big faves except on an ultra
rare occasion. As for this particular situation, the Cubs are in a great spot. When Michael Fiers last faced
Jake Arrieta he outdueled him in May of last year back when Fiers was not even with the Astros.
However, you can bet that Arrieta remembers this game well and he's seeking revenge today. Arrieta is
a phenomenal 10-2 with a 2.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his road starts this season. In his last 7 starts
overall he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 5 of those outings. As for Fiers, he comes into this start
struggling. The Astros right-hander's ERA doesn't reflect it (which is part of what helps to give us line
value here) but Fiers has given up 15 hits and 4 walks in just 10 innings spanning his last two starts. That
means he is allowing nearly 2 baserunners per inning and pitching like that will eventually lead to the
levee breaking and the floodwaters rush through the dam! The Cubs are due for a breakout peformance
offensively and certainly have one of the top lineups in baseball. After a 2-1 loss yesterday, look for the
Cubs to bounce back today. Chicago is 14-5 in interleague game this season. Houston has a long-term
mark of 100-168 as a home dog in a price range of +125 to +175. One final note, and another important
edge here, is that the Cubs lineup is quite familiar with Fiers but this will be Arrieta's first ever start
against the Astros and that is a big edge he'll have over the Houston lineup. 8* CHICAGO CUBS Money
Line Sunday.
SUNDAY MLB analysis (2 plays):
AL Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles
Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 3:35 ET Sunday - The Angels will have have Jered Weaver on the mound. The
veteran right-hander did have to exit his most recent start after being hit by a line drive. Not only could
that be impacting to his psyche in this start, his overall numbers have not been impressive so I expect a
return to "normalcy" for Weaver and that means he should get hit hard here. Weaver gave up 5 earned
runs in 4 innings in his most recent start which was his first September outing. In August Weaver
compiled a 5.45 ERA and was hit at a .357 clip so certainly he was fortunate that his ERA wasn't uglier!
This season, in home starts, Weaver has been hit at a .316 clip so I don't expect things to improve
against Texas today. The Rangers will have Colby Lewis on the mound and he's just coming back from
the DL. The way his rehab assignment went (hit hard in the minors) I certainly don't expect things to go
well for him here against a tough Angels lineup. LA got their sticks going again yesterday but fell short in
the 8-5 loss to Texas. The over is now 11-1 in the Rangers last 12 games! Also, Lewis has allowed 13
earned runs in his last 16 innings against the Angels. Look for him to struggle again here and Weaver will
continue his trend of being very hittable as well and that spells o-v-e-r in this one. 10* OVER in Los
Angeles Angels Sunday
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 - 8* Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) @ Houston Astros @
8:05 ET Sunday - After opening up around a -170 this line has come all the way down to a -140 as of
early Sunday morning. This gets the Cubs into my "play range" here as long-time followers know I play
mostly totals in MLB with some dogs and small faves mixed in. I do not play big faves except on an ultra
rare occasion. As for this particular situation, the Cubs are in a great spot. When Michael Fiers last faced
Jake Arrieta he outdueled him in May of last year back when Fiers was not even with the Astros.
However, you can bet that Arrieta remembers this game well and he's seeking revenge today. Arrieta is
a phenomenal 10-2 with a 2.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his road starts this season. In his last 7 starts
overall he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 5 of those outings. As for Fiers, he comes into this start
struggling. The Astros right-hander's ERA doesn't reflect it (which is part of what helps to give us line
value here) but Fiers has given up 15 hits and 4 walks in just 10 innings spanning his last two starts. That
means he is allowing nearly 2 baserunners per inning and pitching like that will eventually lead to the
levee breaking and the floodwaters rush through the dam! The Cubs are due for a breakout peformance
offensively and certainly have one of the top lineups in baseball. After a 2-1 loss yesterday, look for the
Cubs to bounce back today. Chicago is 14-5 in interleague game this season. Houston has a long-term
mark of 100-168 as a home dog in a price range of +125 to +175. One final note, and another important
edge here, is that the Cubs lineup is quite familiar with Fiers but this will be Arrieta's first ever start
against the Astros and that is a big edge he'll have over the Houston lineup. 8* CHICAGO CUBS Money
Line Sunday.
Scott rickenbach
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 - 10*
Top Play New York Giants () @ Dallas Cowboys
@ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Cowboys lost 11 of their 12 games without Tony Romo last season and, of
course, that is the big story line coming into the new season after he got hurt in the preseason. One of
the big keys here is that Dak Prescott is being hailed for his preseason performance with Dallas and that
he should hit the ground running for the Cowboys here in Game one. The problem with that angle is
that regular season is nothing like preseason. The trouble for Prescott is not going to be his athletic
ability or his arm strength or his legs. The problem is going to be making proper adjustments to all the
defensive sets he`s going to see with stunts, blitzes, etc that are the type of things Prescott did not see
in the preseason. The Giants offense can take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is missing some
starters early this season due to suspension. With head coach McAdoo (former Packers OC), a Giants
offense that ranked in the top ten of the league last season is likely to make strides again this season as
they`ve added even more firepower. The defense also looks improved after a big spend in free agency
and the Cowboys have only covered 3 of their last 14 games. Also, Dallas has long been known for
struggling in their home stadium and they are actually and ugly 1-7 ATS in home openers! These teams
are bitter rivals and the Giants have lost to the Cowboys in a season opener 3 of the last 4 years and
now it is payback time as NY has the big edges in this season opener. Let`s also not forget we`re fading a
Dallas team here that won only 4 games last season and that has struggled so badly when Romo is not
under center. More of the same here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs New England Patriots @
8:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while
only going 8-16 ATS on the road during this same stretch. I look for the road struggles to continue in a
very tough "first test" missing some key players early this season. Rob Gronkowski is dealing with a
hamstring injury and of course then there is the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season).
That the Pats will have Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an
impact here against a tough Cardinals team. Even though the line has been adjusted due to the situation
with these two key players, it is not enough. Keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for
many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be
facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tougher
match-ups for New England just like this one at Arizona! Garoppolo has had only 31 passing attempts in
his NFL career. He is a back-up for a reason! While the Pats have thrived in the AFC East it is impressive
what Arizona has done outside of the NFC West! The Cards are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games outside of
their division. The Cardinals are one of the most balanced teams as they are so "stacked" on both sides
of the ball and the Cards are so well coached. Arizona has gotten off to fast starts under Bruce Arians in
each of his three seasons and this not just SU but also at the betting window as they are 11-4 ATS in
their first 5 games over the 3 seasons. With Garoppolo, and not Brady, leading the Pats this is the
perfect time to fade Bill Belichick as Cardinals coach Arians is one of the best in the league and he's got
the better personnel on the field for this one plus home field edge. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS
Early Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #458 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET -
After being favored by 7, the Eagles are now down to as a low as a 3 point favorite as of Saturday
evening. This is simply an insane line drop and one I will gladly take advantage of. Carson Wentz is not a
typical rookie. The Eagles first rookie QB to start the first game of a season since 1939 ran a pro-style
offense in college. Additionally, the guy is wise beyond his years and is an extremely intelligent player.
He has grasped the Eagles offense much quicker than even the most ardent Wentz supporters could
have expected. Not only that but let's not forget this is still an Eagles team that has averaged 9 wins per
season the last three years. They're AT HOME and hosting a Browns team that has not won more than 5
games in ANY of the last 8 seasons. It is going to be a phenomenal atmosphere at The Linc in Philly as
the fans are thrilled to see Bradford gone and welcome in the Wentz era. The Browns are 14-50 SU in
road games the last 8 seasons and this is a very small number in this one after the line move so a Browns
loss is very likely to lead to an Eagles cover! Keep in mind that Cleveland will be without WR Josh Gordon
for the first 4 games of this season (suspension). The Browns have lost 11 straight season openers by an
average margin of a dozen points per defeat. Cleveland enters the new season having lost 10 of its past
11 regular season games and the Eagles have won their season opener in 4 of the last 5 years. I am
calling this one a shocker because seemingly everyone has bought into Cleveland since the opening line
came out and then AGAIN after the Bradford trade. You know what normally happens in the NFL when
the masses are lining up on one side! Give me the Eagles. 8* PHILADELPHIA
#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #463/464 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs
San Diego Chargers @ 1 ET Sunday -
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 - 10*
Top Play New York Giants () @ Dallas Cowboys
@ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Cowboys lost 11 of their 12 games without Tony Romo last season and, of
course, that is the big story line coming into the new season after he got hurt in the preseason. One of
the big keys here is that Dak Prescott is being hailed for his preseason performance with Dallas and that
he should hit the ground running for the Cowboys here in Game one. The problem with that angle is
that regular season is nothing like preseason. The trouble for Prescott is not going to be his athletic
ability or his arm strength or his legs. The problem is going to be making proper adjustments to all the
defensive sets he`s going to see with stunts, blitzes, etc that are the type of things Prescott did not see
in the preseason. The Giants offense can take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is missing some
starters early this season due to suspension. With head coach McAdoo (former Packers OC), a Giants
offense that ranked in the top ten of the league last season is likely to make strides again this season as
they`ve added even more firepower. The defense also looks improved after a big spend in free agency
and the Cowboys have only covered 3 of their last 14 games. Also, Dallas has long been known for
struggling in their home stadium and they are actually and ugly 1-7 ATS in home openers! These teams
are bitter rivals and the Giants have lost to the Cowboys in a season opener 3 of the last 4 years and
now it is payback time as NY has the big edges in this season opener. Let`s also not forget we`re fading a
Dallas team here that won only 4 games last season and that has struggled so badly when Romo is not
under center. More of the same here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs New England Patriots @
8:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while
only going 8-16 ATS on the road during this same stretch. I look for the road struggles to continue in a
very tough "first test" missing some key players early this season. Rob Gronkowski is dealing with a
hamstring injury and of course then there is the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season).
That the Pats will have Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an
impact here against a tough Cardinals team. Even though the line has been adjusted due to the situation
with these two key players, it is not enough. Keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for
many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be
facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tougher
match-ups for New England just like this one at Arizona! Garoppolo has had only 31 passing attempts in
his NFL career. He is a back-up for a reason! While the Pats have thrived in the AFC East it is impressive
what Arizona has done outside of the NFC West! The Cards are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games outside of
their division. The Cardinals are one of the most balanced teams as they are so "stacked" on both sides
of the ball and the Cards are so well coached. Arizona has gotten off to fast starts under Bruce Arians in
each of his three seasons and this not just SU but also at the betting window as they are 11-4 ATS in
their first 5 games over the 3 seasons. With Garoppolo, and not Brady, leading the Pats this is the
perfect time to fade Bill Belichick as Cardinals coach Arians is one of the best in the league and he's got
the better personnel on the field for this one plus home field edge. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS
Early Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #458 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET -
After being favored by 7, the Eagles are now down to as a low as a 3 point favorite as of Saturday
evening. This is simply an insane line drop and one I will gladly take advantage of. Carson Wentz is not a
typical rookie. The Eagles first rookie QB to start the first game of a season since 1939 ran a pro-style
offense in college. Additionally, the guy is wise beyond his years and is an extremely intelligent player.
He has grasped the Eagles offense much quicker than even the most ardent Wentz supporters could
have expected. Not only that but let's not forget this is still an Eagles team that has averaged 9 wins per
season the last three years. They're AT HOME and hosting a Browns team that has not won more than 5
games in ANY of the last 8 seasons. It is going to be a phenomenal atmosphere at The Linc in Philly as
the fans are thrilled to see Bradford gone and welcome in the Wentz era. The Browns are 14-50 SU in
road games the last 8 seasons and this is a very small number in this one after the line move so a Browns
loss is very likely to lead to an Eagles cover! Keep in mind that Cleveland will be without WR Josh Gordon
for the first 4 games of this season (suspension). The Browns have lost 11 straight season openers by an
average margin of a dozen points per defeat. Cleveland enters the new season having lost 10 of its past
11 regular season games and the Eagles have won their season opener in 4 of the last 5 years. I am
calling this one a shocker because seemingly everyone has bought into Cleveland since the opening line
came out and then AGAIN after the Bradford trade. You know what normally happens in the NFL when
the masses are lining up on one side! Give me the Eagles. 8* PHILADELPHIA
#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #463/464 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs
San Diego Chargers @ 1 ET Sunday -
KENNY (FBWinners) SCHMITT
NFL WEEK 1
5 PACK
NEW ORLEANS UNDER 51 – This isn’t the Saints of the past 3 years, their O-Line
is very weak and they don’t possess the skilled position players of the high
octane offense of years past. I see their defense being better at this time than the
offense. This young Raiders team will cause havoc from the kickoff till the last
whistle sounds. The Raiders offense seemed to struggle in the Pre-Season and
will not be in full flight this coming Sunday. Look for a low scoring game from
these two.
GREEN BAY OVER 48 – We have two high octane offense on the field today. This
game will be played in hot and humid conditions. The Packers will be wearing
their dark color jerseys for today and it will take a toll on the defense as the game
moves on. The Jags have a very efficient offense and the Pack as well. Our math
model has each team scoring 24+ points and this OVER should be reached by the
end of the 3rd quarter.
JAX +4.5 – As stated above, the Jags will give the Pack all they want from the
kickoff. One key note to this selection is the PACK has a divisional game next
week against the reigning division champs (Vikings) in the new stadium. What
better way to start off by going into the Vikings new stadium less Teddy B. and
spoiling their home opener. They might pull this game off late, but I cannot see
the Pack winning by more than a FG!
NY GIANTS OVER 46 – This line move is HORRIBLE, the loss of Romo isn’t worth
a FG+ drop in the total. Dak Prescott is more than capable of moving this offense
well enough to put up 20+ points and this Cowboy defense is horrible. This will be
an shootout from the kickoff and we easily could see 60+ points at the final
whistle.
INDY OVER 50 – We won’t be long winded, look for 80+ passes in this game and it
might take 4 hours to complete this one. We will be shocked if their isn’t 60 points
scored in this one.
NFL WEEK 1
5 PACK
NEW ORLEANS UNDER 51 – This isn’t the Saints of the past 3 years, their O-Line
is very weak and they don’t possess the skilled position players of the high
octane offense of years past. I see their defense being better at this time than the
offense. This young Raiders team will cause havoc from the kickoff till the last
whistle sounds. The Raiders offense seemed to struggle in the Pre-Season and
will not be in full flight this coming Sunday. Look for a low scoring game from
these two.
GREEN BAY OVER 48 – We have two high octane offense on the field today. This
game will be played in hot and humid conditions. The Packers will be wearing
their dark color jerseys for today and it will take a toll on the defense as the game
moves on. The Jags have a very efficient offense and the Pack as well. Our math
model has each team scoring 24+ points and this OVER should be reached by the
end of the 3rd quarter.
JAX +4.5 – As stated above, the Jags will give the Pack all they want from the
kickoff. One key note to this selection is the PACK has a divisional game next
week against the reigning division champs (Vikings) in the new stadium. What
better way to start off by going into the Vikings new stadium less Teddy B. and
spoiling their home opener. They might pull this game off late, but I cannot see
the Pack winning by more than a FG!
NY GIANTS OVER 46 – This line move is HORRIBLE, the loss of Romo isn’t worth
a FG+ drop in the total. Dak Prescott is more than capable of moving this offense
well enough to put up 20+ points and this Cowboy defense is horrible. This will be
an shootout from the kickoff and we easily could see 60+ points at the final
whistle.
INDY OVER 50 – We won’t be long winded, look for 80+ passes in this game and it
might take 4 hours to complete this one. We will be shocked if their isn’t 60 points
scored in this one.
