Sportswagers
Chicago -110 over N.Y. YANKEES
For whatever reason, the New York Yankees remain grossly overvalued and that’s never been more evident than it is here. When we get Chris Sale against any Yanks pitcher not named Tanaka at this price, we’re going to play it 100% of the time. Sale is putting up Cy Young numbers. He’s struck out 48 over his last 34 innings and is averaging a sick 13 K’s/9 over his last five starts. On the year, Sale has 158 K’s and just 26 walks issued in 136 innings. He’s absolutely smothering lefties, limiting them to a ridiculous .057/.108/.057 line. However, it’s close to a moot point, since opposing managers mostly refuse to bat lefties against him. Thing is, Joe Girardi’s hands are tied because his outfield, which consists of Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki all bat left. So does Stephen Drew and Brian McCann and if McCann sits, backup catcher Francisco Cervelli is hitting .143 over his past 10 games. Sale has dominated the Yankees in his past three starts against them and that figures to continue here, as New York has averaged 2.5 RPG on a .584 OPS over its last 11 games, the worst mark in the majors.
Chris Capuano has made just five starts this season after spending the first few months of the season in the Red Sox’ pen. The Yanks have lost four of his five starts. Over his last two starts, Capuano has surrendered 14 hits and eight runs in 11.1 innings. In those two games, the Yanks are 0-2 and have been outscored 18-7. There’s a reason Capuano couldn’t start for Boston. There’s a reason that the Yankees are his fifth team since 2010. Thrice last season, the Dodgers tried to demote him to bullpen, only to reinstate as a starter out of necessity. His roller-coaster 2013 also included a June DL stint (calf) and a September groin strain. Health woes, age (36), miles on his arm and increasing struggles vs. RHB suggest pen may be good fit but he’s back in the starting role, again, out of necessity and that’s not a good fit. The South Side offers up all the value in this one.
Our Pick
Chicago -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Tampa Bay -109 over TORONTO
Chris Archer started the season with outstanding skills in April but he followed that up with three months of mediocrity from May to July. Those three months of mediocrity have been wiped away so far in August, when his skills have been even more electric than they were in April: 12.8 K’s/9, 2.4 BB/9, 44% groundball rate and a 15% swing and miss rate. In his past five starts, Archer has posted a 2.64 ERA with a BB/K split of 12/36 in 31 innings. Archer remains a premium arm and could be in store for a big finish.
Drew Hutchison looks like he might be a poor stretch-run target in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery since he struggled to gain any consistency after his electric April. Hutchison has been awful pitching with runners on with a BAA of .344. His strand rate over the past month is the lowest in the majors at 53% and while bad luck and a low strand rate go hand-in-hand, that BAA with runners on tells the story of a pitcher struggling from the stretch. Hutchison is an exciting young arm with the potential to produce plenty of strikeouts but he carries some durability risk down the stretch. He’s also been brutal at home with a 3-5 record and a 6.46 ERA. Hutchsion has been a strong fade when pitching at home this entire year and now he's up against a vastly superior starter.
Tampa Bay -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
