Phils trending Over behind Kendrick
If you've been backing the Over in Kyle Kendrick's starts for the Philadelphia Phillies lately, you have some extra cash in your pocket. Six of Kendrick's last seven starts have gone over the total.
He'll get the nod when the Phils host the New York Mets Sunday. BetOnline.com currently lists the Mets as -120 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of eight.
If you've been backing the Over in Kyle Kendrick's starts for the Philadelphia Phillies lately, you have some extra cash in your pocket. Six of Kendrick's last seven starts have gone over the total.
He'll get the nod when the Phils host the New York Mets Sunday. BetOnline.com currently lists the Mets as -120 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of eight.
SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
N.Y. Mets @ PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Mets -122 over PHILADELPHIA
(Risking 2.44 units - To Win: 2.00
We don’t normally play favorites but there is value from time to time in doing so and that applies here. Zack Wheeler is a future ace (if he isn’t one already) while Kyle Kendrick has one foot in the gutter. Kendrick teased us with a couple of decent years but that was back in 2012, which means nothing today. There’s simply not much upside in Kendrick’s skill set except that he can take the ball every fifth day. In the end, the weak strikeout numbers (89 in 144 IP), middling xERA (4.35) and disaster risk all make Kendrick at best an innings eater. He has 10 quality starts in 23 attempts this season. Furthermore, the Mets thrive here, winning five straight and 11 of their past 12 games in Philadelphia, which includes overcoming Cole Hamels’ great start yesterday.
How can Zack Wheeler be a game under .500? His skills since the beginning of June mirror those of Clayton Kershaw. If Kershaw is -170 in Milwaukee today then Wheeler should be given at least the same consideration. Wheeler is 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last seven starts, reaching the seventh in six of them. He’s also 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA in his past five road games. Wheeler brings 95 MPH heat, an elite 53% groundball rate (67% over his last two starts) and a swing and miss rate of 12%. He has 130 K’s in 134 innings and 31 K’s over his past 33 innings. The Phillies strike out often. Ryan Howard should be allowed four strikes. Over its last 20 games, Philadelphia batters have struck out 163 times. If Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies defeat the Mets here, so be it but there is no question we’re going with the best of it because Zack Wheeler will not be this cheap against Kyle Kendrick ever again.
Boston @ L.A. ANGELS
Boston +137 over L.A. ANGELS
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)
These two played a marathon 19-inning game yesterday and that means that many of the Angels veterans played the equivalent of two games (8 or 9 AB’s) without a break. It’ll be interesting to see the Halos lineup today and while the same thing applies for the Red Sox, Boston is younger and Mike Napoli was replaced after 5 AB’s. Albert Pujols had 9 AB’s (Josh Hamilton and Mike Trout had 8 AB’s each) and frankly speaking, has anyone watched Pujols run lately? Is there anything funnier in major league baseball than watching him run? In any case, Boston is still a much better option taking back a decent tag here with Rubby De La Rosa going as oppose to spotting a price with Hector Santiago. Mike Scioscia had intentions of demoting Santiago to the pen and keeping him there on several occasions this year but injuries to other starters forced Scioscia’s hand. Santiago was headed back to the pen just last week and then Tyler Skaggs injured his forearm and was placed on the DL. In 15 starts this season, Santiago has three of the pure quality variety for the lowest ratio of pure quality starts among qualifying starters. His swing role and inability to last deep into games has kept his innings pitched managed. Santiago’s chronically shaky control and high fly-ball rate of 50% rate give him a high blow-up risk. His fastball speed has declined three straight years. His xERA of 4.81 (6.02 over his last four starts) shows his true level. This is not a guy to be spotting significant juice with.
Maybe Rubby De La Rosa gets whacked today. It is a possibility but one thing we know for sure is that De La Rosa has the ability to throw a gem while Santiago does not. With mid-90s heat, a potentially impact changeup, and an ability to induce groundballs, De La Rosa has the tools to become an impact starter and we’ve seen flashes of it in six of his 10 starts. De La Rosa is a work-in-progress but he’s pitching at a good time for the Red Sox because they are not in the heat of a pennant race and he can relax more than Santiago can. Regardless of outcome, this is true value.
Minnesota @ OAKLAND
Minnesota +159 over OAKLAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.18)
Baseball is a funny game and the box scores only tell a portion of the story. The A’s won 9-4 last night but were outhit 12-10 and that’s not unique. You see teams getting outhit all the time but for the winning team, those groundballs find holes and for the other team it’s a double-play. It truly is a game of inches. On Friday night, the Twins lost 6-5 and once again outhit the A’s. Minnesota has lost the first three games of this series and they’ve lost 12 straight to the A’s but they’ve had a decent series (despite losing) and really have a good chance of snapping that streak here against Jason Hammel. Hammel will not see the mound in the playoffs unless it’s in a mop-up role. He’s has a BB/K split of 14/14 over his last 23 innings to go along with a 7.14 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP. His line-drive rate since joining the A’s is 35%, which is the highest mark in the majors over the past month. Hammel wasn’t very good to begin with and now he’s struggling miserably, both in his mind and on the hill. This guy cannot be a -165 favorite.
Phil Hughes has a 4.01 ERA due to a 35% hit rate and low 68% strand rate. It's a mark that just makes him an even more attractive buy-low target. His skills by month from April to June were outstanding. Hughes also is showing signs of squashing the gopheritis risk that plagued him early in his career. His groundball rate by month: 31%, 34%, 37% 44%. His four-seam fastball velocity has increased in each month too. Don't be surprised if Hughes ends up with a near-3.50 ERA because he’s dealing it and has been the entire season.
MLB
N.Y. Mets @ PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Mets -122 over PHILADELPHIA
(Risking 2.44 units - To Win: 2.00
We don’t normally play favorites but there is value from time to time in doing so and that applies here. Zack Wheeler is a future ace (if he isn’t one already) while Kyle Kendrick has one foot in the gutter. Kendrick teased us with a couple of decent years but that was back in 2012, which means nothing today. There’s simply not much upside in Kendrick’s skill set except that he can take the ball every fifth day. In the end, the weak strikeout numbers (89 in 144 IP), middling xERA (4.35) and disaster risk all make Kendrick at best an innings eater. He has 10 quality starts in 23 attempts this season. Furthermore, the Mets thrive here, winning five straight and 11 of their past 12 games in Philadelphia, which includes overcoming Cole Hamels’ great start yesterday.
How can Zack Wheeler be a game under .500? His skills since the beginning of June mirror those of Clayton Kershaw. If Kershaw is -170 in Milwaukee today then Wheeler should be given at least the same consideration. Wheeler is 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last seven starts, reaching the seventh in six of them. He’s also 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA in his past five road games. Wheeler brings 95 MPH heat, an elite 53% groundball rate (67% over his last two starts) and a swing and miss rate of 12%. He has 130 K’s in 134 innings and 31 K’s over his past 33 innings. The Phillies strike out often. Ryan Howard should be allowed four strikes. Over its last 20 games, Philadelphia batters have struck out 163 times. If Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies defeat the Mets here, so be it but there is no question we’re going with the best of it because Zack Wheeler will not be this cheap against Kyle Kendrick ever again.
Boston @ L.A. ANGELS
Boston +137 over L.A. ANGELS
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)
These two played a marathon 19-inning game yesterday and that means that many of the Angels veterans played the equivalent of two games (8 or 9 AB’s) without a break. It’ll be interesting to see the Halos lineup today and while the same thing applies for the Red Sox, Boston is younger and Mike Napoli was replaced after 5 AB’s. Albert Pujols had 9 AB’s (Josh Hamilton and Mike Trout had 8 AB’s each) and frankly speaking, has anyone watched Pujols run lately? Is there anything funnier in major league baseball than watching him run? In any case, Boston is still a much better option taking back a decent tag here with Rubby De La Rosa going as oppose to spotting a price with Hector Santiago. Mike Scioscia had intentions of demoting Santiago to the pen and keeping him there on several occasions this year but injuries to other starters forced Scioscia’s hand. Santiago was headed back to the pen just last week and then Tyler Skaggs injured his forearm and was placed on the DL. In 15 starts this season, Santiago has three of the pure quality variety for the lowest ratio of pure quality starts among qualifying starters. His swing role and inability to last deep into games has kept his innings pitched managed. Santiago’s chronically shaky control and high fly-ball rate of 50% rate give him a high blow-up risk. His fastball speed has declined three straight years. His xERA of 4.81 (6.02 over his last four starts) shows his true level. This is not a guy to be spotting significant juice with.
Maybe Rubby De La Rosa gets whacked today. It is a possibility but one thing we know for sure is that De La Rosa has the ability to throw a gem while Santiago does not. With mid-90s heat, a potentially impact changeup, and an ability to induce groundballs, De La Rosa has the tools to become an impact starter and we’ve seen flashes of it in six of his 10 starts. De La Rosa is a work-in-progress but he’s pitching at a good time for the Red Sox because they are not in the heat of a pennant race and he can relax more than Santiago can. Regardless of outcome, this is true value.
Minnesota @ OAKLAND
Minnesota +159 over OAKLAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.18)
Baseball is a funny game and the box scores only tell a portion of the story. The A’s won 9-4 last night but were outhit 12-10 and that’s not unique. You see teams getting outhit all the time but for the winning team, those groundballs find holes and for the other team it’s a double-play. It truly is a game of inches. On Friday night, the Twins lost 6-5 and once again outhit the A’s. Minnesota has lost the first three games of this series and they’ve lost 12 straight to the A’s but they’ve had a decent series (despite losing) and really have a good chance of snapping that streak here against Jason Hammel. Hammel will not see the mound in the playoffs unless it’s in a mop-up role. He’s has a BB/K split of 14/14 over his last 23 innings to go along with a 7.14 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP. His line-drive rate since joining the A’s is 35%, which is the highest mark in the majors over the past month. Hammel wasn’t very good to begin with and now he’s struggling miserably, both in his mind and on the hill. This guy cannot be a -165 favorite.
Phil Hughes has a 4.01 ERA due to a 35% hit rate and low 68% strand rate. It's a mark that just makes him an even more attractive buy-low target. His skills by month from April to June were outstanding. Hughes also is showing signs of squashing the gopheritis risk that plagued him early in his career. His groundball rate by month: 31%, 34%, 37% 44%. His four-seam fastball velocity has increased in each month too. Don't be surprised if Hughes ends up with a near-3.50 ERA because he’s dealing it and has been the entire season.
Wayne Root
8-10 Sunday Dynamite Duo
Sunday, August 10, 2014
-
Pirates {C.Morton} (-120) over Padres {T.Ross}
1:35 PM -- PNC Park at North Shore
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
-
Astros {D.Keuchel} (-160) over Rangers {N.Martinez}
2:10 PM -- Minute Maid Park at Union Station
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 1-5 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 90.
All times Eastern
Home team in Bold
If games shown are from a prior day, your purchase allows you access, at no additional cost,
as many times as necessary during the day to retrieve your selections.
8-10 Sunday Dynamite Duo
Sunday, August 10, 2014
-
Pirates {C.Morton} (-120) over Padres {T.Ross}
1:35 PM -- PNC Park at North Shore
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
-
Astros {D.Keuchel} (-160) over Rangers {N.Martinez}
2:10 PM -- Minute Maid Park at Union Station
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 1-5 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 90.
All times Eastern
Home team in Bold
If games shown are from a prior day, your purchase allows you access, at no additional cost,
as many times as necessary during the day to retrieve your selections.
Hondolt
Hondo hit with Kluber and the Tribe on Saturday in El Bronx, but the Tigers’ pitiful pen deprived him of a sweep and caused the deficit to increase slightly to 1,265 sturdivants.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch will go with Dallas in Houston — 10 units on Keuchel and the ’Stros to soar past the Rangers.
Hondo hit with Kluber and the Tribe on Saturday in El Bronx, but the Tigers’ pitiful pen deprived him of a sweep and caused the deficit to increase slightly to 1,265 sturdivants.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch will go with Dallas in Houston — 10 units on Keuchel and the ’Stros to soar past the Rangers.
GC: MLB PLay
Sunday card has two big 5* Plays, one is the ESPN Sunday night MLB System Play, the other is an Early 100% Power Angle play. There is also a solid 14-0 Totals Play. MLB System Play below.
On Sunday the MLB System play is on Oakland. Game 920 at 4:05 eastern. Oakland has won 9 straight here at home vs the Twins. Today they qualify in a league wide Power System that has won 22 of 26 times since 2004. We are playing on certain home favorites with a total that is posted at 6 or less and they are coming in off a home favored win by 5 or more runs if they were a favorite of -200 or higher and their opponent scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits in a 5+ run road dog loss.. The A/s have won 14 of 18 on Sunday and 33 of 47 as a home favorite in this range. They have J. Hammel on the mound and he has a 2.85 home era this year. Hughes for the Twins has a career 5+ era vs Oakland . Look for Oakland to take the finale. On Sunday there are 2 Big 5* Plays up. The Lead is the ESPN MLB power system side and the Early Dominator system with a Perfect Angle. There is also a 14-0 Totals system. Jump on Now and end the week big In bases. For the Bonus Play take Oakland. GC
Sunday card has two big 5* Plays, one is the ESPN Sunday night MLB System Play, the other is an Early 100% Power Angle play. There is also a solid 14-0 Totals Play. MLB System Play below.
On Sunday the MLB System play is on Oakland. Game 920 at 4:05 eastern. Oakland has won 9 straight here at home vs the Twins. Today they qualify in a league wide Power System that has won 22 of 26 times since 2004. We are playing on certain home favorites with a total that is posted at 6 or less and they are coming in off a home favored win by 5 or more runs if they were a favorite of -200 or higher and their opponent scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits in a 5+ run road dog loss.. The A/s have won 14 of 18 on Sunday and 33 of 47 as a home favorite in this range. They have J. Hammel on the mound and he has a 2.85 home era this year. Hughes for the Twins has a career 5+ era vs Oakland . Look for Oakland to take the finale. On Sunday there are 2 Big 5* Plays up. The Lead is the ESPN MLB power system side and the Early Dominator system with a Perfect Angle. There is also a 14-0 Totals system. Jump on Now and end the week big In bases. For the Bonus Play take Oakland. GC
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee lost on Saturday in MLB in the National League with the Phillies -$155/Mets.
For Sunday in Soccer E&B like Arsenal +220/Manchester City and also a play on the Draw+$250. (This game is underway)
For Sunday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Astros -$152/Rangers.
Ben lee is 3-3 -$53 for week forty one 186-215-5 -$2846.
"Mr Chalk" is 61-43 -$219 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee lost on Saturday in MLB in the National League with the Phillies -$155/Mets.
For Sunday in Soccer E&B like Arsenal +220/Manchester City and also a play on the Draw+$250. (This game is underway)
For Sunday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Astros -$152/Rangers.
Ben lee is 3-3 -$53 for week forty one 186-215-5 -$2846.
"Mr Chalk" is 61-43 -$219 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
