SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Arizona @ PHILADELPHIA
Arizona -109 over PHILADELPHIA
(Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
Roberto Heredia Hernández (formerly Fausto Carmona) still isn’t fooling anyone. His biggest problem is his inability to find the strike zone. Hernandez has the worst BB/K split in the majors in terms of ratio among pitchers with at least 10 starts. In 106 innings, Hernandez has walked 54 batters while striking out just 71. Hernandez has posted a horrific hr/f of 11% for two years running. A drop in control, struggles vs. lefties and dominant start/disaster start split all hint that a disastrous second half might be in the cards, just like last season.
Vidal Nuno really isn’t much better but at least he throws strikes and is in much better form. The “change of scenery” theory in which traded players are invigorated may apply here. Nuno has a BB/K split in his last five starts of 7/24 in 27 innings. He’s posted a 3.29 ERA over that span and has a good chance to keep it going here. The real story behind this wager however, is that the Diamondbacks are simply playing much better and scoring a lot more runs. The Phillies went off for nine runs on Friday but that was only their third win in 11 games. They’ve also scored three runs or less in six of those 11 losses. Philadelphia’s .224 batting average at home against lefties is the fourth worst mark in the majors. By contrast, Arizona is hitting .280 over their last 15 games, which is the second best mark in the NL. They are also 9-6 over that span and have scored 15 runs over the first two games of this series. On Friday they scored five times but between Mark Trumbo and Miguel Montero, batting 5th and 6th respectively, that pair left 12 runners stranded. The Snakes could’ve tripled Friday’s output. The Diamondbacks could be in for a strong second half, as they grossly underachieved in the first half and now they’re heating up. As a small favorite here, one has to like their chances.
Miami @ HOUSTON
Miami +103 over HOUSTON
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)
The Marlins have won six of seven and the first two games of this series while the Astros have dropped four straight and seven of their last nine. Over their last three games, Houston is hitting .198 and has scored four runs. Collin McHugh returns to the rotation after rehabbing from a finger injury. McHugh was performing poorly before going down. He gave up 10 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts - all losses. In fact, he has not posted a victory since June 3. McHugh had a nice run early in the year which has led to his 3.28 ERA but don’t expect it to continue. Formerly Colorado’s waiver fodder and NYM farm-hand, Houston picked up Collin McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level, in December and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's been able to stick around. Dude caught lightning in a bottle for a brief time but the league has caught up to him.
Jacob Turner is high on our radar as a prime breakout target. Jacob Turner was the key to the Anibal Sanchez trade in the summer of 2012. Turner was demoted to the pen to work some things out and in his reinsertion into the rotation last Tuesday he pitched five strong innings against Atlanta. He’ll likely get stretched out a little more here. His average fastball velocity is +1.2 mph vs. 2012 and ‘13. He has a high 12% swinging strike rate, so his 8K/9 potential is right there. He also has outstanding command against both LH and RH bats. Turner comes in with an elite groundball rate in his career of 52%. This year it’s a point higher at 53%. At age 23 with a 1st-round pedigree and nasty stuff, he is most definitely a pooch worth backing against the reeling and free-swinging Astros.
Pittsburgh @ COLORADO
COLORADO +107 over Pittsburgh
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)
For whatever reason, the Pirates are the only team in MLB that has trouble scoring runs at this launching pad. Pittsburgh has been outscored in the first two games of this series 16-2. Previously, they played here last August and got swept, scoring seven runs in three games. That’s five straight losses at this venue for the Bucs, where they have scored nine runs in those five games. Furthermore, this has been a house of horrors for Edinson Volquez. In seven games started at Coors over the last three years, Volquez has allowed 52 hits in 32 innings for a BAA of .362. In those 32 frames, he’s walked 19 batters, surrendered 33 runs and has been tagged for six jacks. His record at Coors in the last three years reads as follows: 1-5 W/L record, 9.19 ERA, .362 oppBA, 2.42 WHIP. He’ll now face a Rockies team is seeing beach balls and that leads the NL in many offensive categories over the past 15 games that include a team batting average of .290 with 19 bombs. Volquez has to be feeling a little anxious about starting here because he basically pitches with the sacks full every inning before getting rocked. Should the Pirates really be favored based on their own and Volquez’s performances here recently? We think not.