Service Plays Sunday 7/27/14

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StatFox Super Situations

BALTIMORE at SEATTLE
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base 40-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.4% | 23.5 units ) 5-6 this year. ( 45.5% | -1.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

BALTIMORE at SEATTLE
BALTIMORE is 85-56 (+43.6 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 3 seasons. The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.1)
 
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StatFox Super Situations

MINNESOTA at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Any team (CONNECTICUT) off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team after 15 or more games 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

MINNESOTA at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) after a game where a team made 50% of their shots or better against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 45% or higher 51-31 since 1997. ( 62.2% | 0.0 units ) 5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 0.0 units )

MINNESOTA at CONNECTICUT
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days 67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units ) 4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )
 
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Game of the Day: Dodgers at Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (-108, 7.0)

The San Francisco Giants are hoping new acquisition Jake Peavy can help them salvage Sunday’s series finale against the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers, who have pulled one-half game ahead of the Giants in the National League West. The Dodgers have won the first two games of the series by a combined 13-1 while holding the Giants’ offense to nine singles. Peavy, who was acquired from Boston on Saturday for two minor-league pitchers, owns a 14-2 record with a 2.21 ERA in 25 career starts against the Dodgers.

The Giants have lost 18 of their last 24 home games, and the injury bug is proving to be a growing concern. First baseman Brandon Belt (concussion), center fielder Angel Pagan (back) and starting pitcher Matt Cain (right elbow inflammation) are not expected back soon, and catcher Hector Sanchez was placed on the seven-day concussion list Saturday. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is 13-for-31 in eight games since the All-Star break for the Dodgers, who have won four of their last six.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as -108 home favorites and that's where they currently sit. The run total opened at 7.0.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-5, 3.39 ERA) vs. Giants RH Jake Peavy (1-9, 4.72)

Ryu improved to 7-2 on the road this season after holding Pittsburgh to two runs over seven innings Monday. “He probably had the biggest drop in curveball we’ve seen this year as far as depth,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle told MLB.com. “The guy’s got weapons, and he’s a cool cat on the mound.” Ryu allowed eight runs over two innings against the Giants on April 4 before tossing seven scoreless innings against them two weeks later.

Peavy led the American League with 20 home runs allowed, but had been pitching better of late with a 3.91 ERA and eight walks and 26 strikeouts over his past four starts. Adrian Gonzalez is 4-for-11 with two homers against the 33-year-old, who played for Giants manager Bruce Bochy in San Diego from 2002-06. He’s facing Los Angeles for the first time since Aug. 25, 2013, when he allowed one run in a complete-game victory while pitching for Boston.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in San Francisco.
* Dodgers are 4-1 in Ryu's last five starts versus the Giants.
* Giants are 5-1 in their last six games as a favorite.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Ryu's last nine road starts.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of wagers are behind the Dodgers at +100.
 
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Bob Balfe ‏

Detroit Tigers +110

The Tigers hit lefties well and the Angels hit well against right handed pitching. These teams are almost mirror images of each other, but I like how Porcello has pitched on the road this season. Look for the Tigers to make up for getting blanked yesterday. Take Detroit.
 
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SEAN MICHAELS

SUNDAY


50 dime release on Kansas City and Bruce Chen against Cleveland and Danny Salazar.Always list pitchers with my baseball action. KC is -105 to -110 as of 12:55 my time Sunday morning here in Vegas.
 
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GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Team A: Yankees
Team B: Blue Jays
Pick: Under 9 runs
Risk:$115 to win $100
Time: 10:00 AM PT
 
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Shakers Shorts

Kansas City +101

Neither of these throwers for today's game is anything to brag about but in the case of the Indians, they have struggled verses left handed pitching to the tune of just a 1.29 Runs Per 9 over their last 10 games played. In addition the KC Bullpen has been superb lately + the Royals after slumping a bit are winning games right now and getting good run production during the process. Cleveland has not been a good road proposition this year and have just 1 win in their last 7 tries. The small sample of Salazar's results verses KC (2 Starts 0-2, 6.97 ERA) is nothing but a Bonus here. We have handicapped this one with a much larger line than Books want us to believe and an easy decision for me.
 
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Brickyard 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts

After a week off, the 20th race on the NASCAR Sprint Cup season takes us to Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Brickyard 400. There have been 20 races on the famed bricks and a Chevrolet has won 15 times, including the past 11. Yes, that isn't a typo -- 11 straight Chevy wins.

Even though drivers like Ryan Newman and Paul Menard have won there in two of the past three seasons, the norm for Indy has been that only elite drivers win. Eight Brickyard 400 winners have gone on to win a season championship the same year and 15 of the winners have won a championship in their careers. There isn't any type of track that has that kind of select group.

Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski come in as the LVH Superbook's 5/1 co-favorites (Bet $100 to win $500) to win on Sunday and it's quite understandable since they both lead the season with three wins each. Johnson has won four times on the storied track and has a series leading 109.8 driver rating, which is over five points better than the second best (Tony Stewart 104.1). He was runner-up last season and his four wins there have come in the past eight seasons.

For Keselowski, he gets high marks because of the roll he's on which has seen him win two of the past three races on the season -- contributing to a current Ford streak of four straight wins. Prior to that Ford streak, a Hendrick Chevy had won five straight.

Keselowski is also co-favored because of how well he ran at Pocono Raceway last month where he led the most laps (95) before settling for second-place. I always equate Indy and Pocono together because of the long straightaways and the tight flat turns, or at least the tight flat turn three at Pocono. All four turns at Indy are flat and we've seen a big correlation there from who was strong at the previous Pocono race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. won his first career race at Pocono in June and at 10/1 odds. He should be highly considered to get his first career win at the Brickyard and join his daddy in elite status who won there in 1995. Junior is tied with Keselowski with nine top-5 finishes on the season and has a series leading 13 top-10 finishes. He is having a championship-type of season and winning the Brickyard would be a great sign that he is championship-bound.

At Pocono, eight Chevy's finished in the top-10 and it's likely we'll see Chevy win for the 12th straight time at the Brickyard on Sunday. Until Menard and Newman, we rarely saw drivers at odds higher than 12/1 on the bricks, but a few candidates out there make a strong case just because of Pocono and having great Hendrick horsepower. Indian native Tony Stewart (15/1), Kyle Larson (25/1) and Las Vegan Kurt Busch (30/1) all have a great shot at winning.

Busch finished sixth in his first Indy 500 run in May and has all the built in criteria to be a winner at Indy based on the history. He's won a season championship (2004), he drives a Chevy and he ran well at Pocono (3rd)in June. Plus, he's 30/1, which is always enough of a price to try and sell myself on betting someone.

I'm going to roll with four-time Brickyard winner Jeff Gordon to win this week at 8/1. He won the first race for NASCAR on the fabled track (1994), he drives a Chevy, he's a past champion and he's been running great all season. Everything fits!

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
2) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
4) #41 Kurt Busch (30/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (5/1)
 

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Jesse Schule

NY Yankees
Baltimore Under

Somebody has KING CREOLE OVER OF THE WEEK ?
 
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Dodgers, Giants square off

L.A. Dodgers (58-47) at San Francisco Giants (57-47)

First pitch: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET

Line and Total: Dodgers -110, Giants +100, Total 7

The Dodgers and Giants continue their battle for the National League West on Sunday night.

Los Angeles will be looking to sweep San Francisco after earning an 8-1 win on Friday and a 5-0 shutout performance by Clayton Kershaw last night.

Los Angeles is in the midst of a nine-game road trip in which it is playing three teams with winnings records. Over the first two series, the club was a poor 2-4, as they dropped to 1.5 games behind the Giants in the division. In the Dodgers' most recent set against the Pirates, they won the first contest, but were dominated over the final two games, as they were outscored 18-8. 1B Adrian Gonzalez has not been the problem during this recent poor stretch though, going 8-for-22 (.364) with two doubles, a home run and 5 RBI. San Francisco has not wanted to relinquish its hold on first place in the division and has been victorious in five of seven games coming into this series. Heading into tonight, the Dodgers hold a 1/2-game lead on the division.

The Giants nearly finished up a four-game sweep in Philadelphia earlier this week, but were unable to get any offense going on Thursday night as they lost 2-1 while going just 1-for-4 with runners in scoring position. C Buster Posey (.284 BA) has been on fire since the All-Star Game, going 11-for-28 (.393) with three doubles, a home run and 7 RBI. The pitching matchup for this contest will pit LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-5, 3.39 ERA) of the Dodgers against Giants RHP Yusmeiro Petit (3-3, 4.24).

Including the last two days, the Giants hold a solid 28-21 edge over the Dodgers in this matchup over the past three seasons, going 13-10 in home games and 7-5 this year. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been a tremendous addition to the Dodgers staff since entering the majors last season and has compiled a 25-13 record with a 3.14 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his first 49 starts. While his ERA has improved this year by nearly a half a run, some of his other numbers have declined, as he has walked 2.3 batters this year compared to just 1.8 last season. He has also had a lot of trouble against lefties on the year, allowing them to hit .280 against him over 111 batters faced.

With that said, Ryu has been an extremely reliable starter and has pitched at least six innings while allowing three or fewer runs in 15 of his 19 starts. If you take away his start earlier in the month against the Tigers (2.1 IP, 10 H, 7 ER), Ryu is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 23:1 K/BB ratio in his three other July outings.

He’s already faced the Giants seven times in his young MLB career, putting together a 3-3 record with a 3.24 ERA (1.44 WHIP) and has struck out just 5.0 batters per nine innings with one home run allowed in 41.2 frames. OF Hunter Pence (8-for-18, 2 doubles, 5 RBI) and 2B Marco Scutaro (5-for-12) have had no issues seeing the ball out of Ryu’s hand while SS Brandon Crawford is hitless with two strikeouts in 10 at-bats against the lefty.

Coming into this series, the Dodgers’ bullpen has gone 8-17 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while successfully saving 32-of-38 (84%) games. Kenley Jansen (3.32 ERA, 29 saves) has been absolutely amazing in his past 11 games, allowing a meager five hits with no runs while striking out 14 batters in 11 inning. For the season, the closer has struck out 13.9 batters per nine innings.

Yusmerio Petit was expected to start for San Franciso but the club has now named newcomer Jake Peavy (1-9, 4.72 ERA) the starter. The Giants picked up Peavy from the Red Sox on Saturday after a rough 20 starts in the American League. Run support was a major issue for the right-hander, who was backed by two or fewer in each of his last eight outings, compiling an 0-6 record with a 4.71 ERA.

That problem may not change with the Giants, who are batting .158 while scoring two runs during their current three-game losing streak.

Peavy can go a long way to changing that since he's 14-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 25 career starts against them. He tossed a three-hitter in an 8-1 road win for Boston on Aug. 25.

Entering Friday, the Giants’ relievers had combined to go 20-9 with a solid 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while converting 32-of-45 (71%) save opportunities. Closer Santiago Casilla (1.16 ERA, 7 saves) has already blown three saves this year while getting lucky with batters hitting .208 BABIP.
 

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We should probably start following shieldbet

He's 75-33 on the year and 4-0 on big plays

Just before he turns tout :>(
 
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MLB

'Dodgers go for Sweep'

The eyes of most baseball fans, as well as those focused on baseball betting, will be on the finale of this pivotal three-game series between rival San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Dodgers taking the first two games moving 1/2 game up in the NL West go for the sweep handing the ball to southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu sporting a 11-5 record on the year, 3.39 ERA. He is coming off a sharp 7 innings of 2 run ball in a victory at Pittsburgh giving the hurler a sparkling 7-2 mark on the road with a 2.73 ERA. Ryu has thrived when in the position he is in tonight. In his last start at AT&T Park back in April, Ryu pitched seven shutout innings as visiting Los Angeles beat San Francisco marking a third consecutive team start win for the hurler in the Bay area. Dodgers are also 4-1 in his July road starts, on a 16-9 road stretch with the hurler. Giants trot out Yusmeiro Petit sitting at 3-3 with a 4.24 ERA in 27 appearances, six of which were starts. Well to note, Petit has never started vs LA as a member of Giants but brings to the mound an 0-4 team start record vs Dodgers while with D-Backs.
 
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PowerPlayWins

Today's Power Plays of The Day

Cincinnati Reds(+110)
Pitcher: Latos

Kansas City Royals(-105)
Pitcher: Chen

Pittsburgh Pirates(-120)
Pitcher: Volquez
 

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