SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Chicago @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND INDIANS-1½ +129 over Chicago
Risking 2 units
Trevor Bauer has a few big things going in his favor. For one, he’s long been in possession of what they call an electric arm. He’s been able to run his fastball up there in the mid-90s and while an electric arm doesn’t automatically bring one success, it does guarantee one several opportunities. Bauer is also intellectual and curious about his work, to an extreme extent. His willingness to try new things has gotten him into some trouble on occasion but it reflects a strong inner desire to be the best pitcher he can become. He also has no fear of giving up a run or two or being taken yard. Bauer has an excellent strikeout rate and his groundball percentage is trending strongly in the right way. He'll now face a Chicago team that will be without two key players. Adam Eaton and Alexei Ramirez were both injured yesterday, which not only hurts them offensively, it hurts the South Side defensively in a big way. Adam Eaton is among the best CF's in the game and Ramirez is their every day SS.
Then there's John Danks. With shoulder surgery now 22 months in the rear-view mirror, we'll give Danks' a mulligan for his mediocre 2013, as a sharp strikeout rate drop suggested he hadn't built back his arm strength. Has he been revived in 2014? Frankly, no he has not. Danks posted 7.6 K's/9 in May, but his strikeout totals have otherwise been subpar, leaving him more at the mercy of hit and strand %. He improved his control a bit in '13 to compensate for the lack of Ks, but that hasn't been the case this season, resulting in a putrid control rate (44 BB in 113 IP). The elevated hr/f% from '13 has corrected, but he's allowing more fly-balls, putting him at risk of another HR's allowed spike given his bandbox home park and other AL parks such as the one he'll pitch in here. Danks was perhaps a bounce back candidate entering the season, but his surgically repaired shoulder seems to have sapped his upside. His fastball usage and velocity continue to slip, as he's had to rely more on a changeup to induce swings and misses, which obviously isn't the answer. He piqued some interest with a four-win June, but none of them were impressive and none of them were pure quality outings. Danks' skills have been terrible and in his last start before the break he may look like a guy that is dead last in a marathon race but will do anything to cross the finish line. Big edge to the Indians in a very good situation.