Service Plays Sunday 6/29/14

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, JUNE 29th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 6/29/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
•Darvish, Rangers Shut Out Twins 5-0: Yu Darvish returned to his saltiest form on Saturday, helping the Texas Rangers make quick work of the Minnesota Twins. The Rangers' right-hander struck out 10 hitters over eight shutout innings in the Rangers' 5-0 victory. Darvish struck out 10 or more in a game for the 25th time in his career and fifth time this season in helping Texas to its second consecutive victory. Darvish rebounded from a less than stellar start in his last outing, when he gave up five runs on five hits, including two home runs, in six innings of a loss to Anaheim.

On Saturday, he allowed four hits and walked one in shutting down the Twins, who lost for the fifth straight game. "I thought he was Yu Darvish again," Texas manager Ron Washington said. "He found his off-speed stuff, he used his cutter very well, spotted his fastball around the zone. He really was in command today." Third baseman Adrian Beltre was 3-for-3 with an intentional walk, and center fielder Leonys Martin had a two-run double in Texas' three-run eighth that sealed victory.

•Harper Belts Three HRs In Rehab Game: Outfielder Bryce Harper appeared ready to return to the Washington Nationals after hitting three homers and driving in five runs during a minor league rehab game on Saturday. Harper, working his way back from a left thumb injury, went 4-for-5 as the designated hitter for Double-A Harrisburg against Akron, a Cleveland Indians affiliate. The Nationals are hoping that Harper will return to the major leagues next week.

Washington opens a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies on Monday. Harper, the 2012 National League Rookie of the Year, has been sidelined since he tore ligaments in the thumb on a headfirst slide in a game against the San Diego Padres and underwent surgery in April. In 22 games with the Nationals before the injury, Harper was batting .289 with one home run and nine RBIs.

•Saturday's MLB Roundup
-- New York Mets third baseman David Wright missed his second straight game with a shoulder injury on Saturday as he flew to New York to undergo an MRI. Wright has been experiencing discomfort in his left shoulder since sliding headfirst on a steal June 12 at Citi Field. ESPN reported that Wright's shoulder will not need surgery. Anti-inflammatory and rest were prescribed. The injury turned painful for Wright beginning Thursday at the Pittsburgh Pirates. It flared up in the fourth inning when he tagged out former teammate Ike Davis during a rundown and later while fielding a grounder in the eighth inning.

-- The Boston Red Sox promoted 21-year-old infielder Mookie Betts from Triple-A Pawtucket before Saturday night's game against the New York Yankees. Betts rose through the Red Sox's minor-league system in less than two years - quicker than shortstop Xander Bogaerts and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Betts batted .355 in 54 games with Double-A Portland before heading to Pawtucket this year. In 23 games with the PawSox, he reached base in each contest and batted .290 (9-for-31) with runners in scoring position.

-- The 25 homers by Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu are the most in major-league history for a player in his first 67 career games. The previous best came in 1937 when first baseman Rudy York hit 25 in his first 72 games.

-- Left-hander Brandon Finnegan, who was the Kansas City Royals' top pick in the June draft, signed for $2.2 million on Saturday. Finnegan, who was 9-3 with a 2.04 ERA as a junior at TCU this season, will join the Royals' Class A Wilmington club.

-- Texas Rangers left-hander Derek Holland participated in a simulated game on Saturday, throwing 67 pitches in three innings. Club officials said he will stay in Texas while the team hits the road for the start of a six-game road trip to Baltimore and New York.
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Betting Notes - Sunday

National League
•Braves-Phillies - 1:35 PM
--Harang is 2-3, 4.79 in his last six starts.
--Buchanan is 3-0, 3.06 in his last three starts.

--Braves won six of their last seven games.
--Phillies lost seven of their last nine games.

--Seven of last eight Atlanta games stayed under the total.

•Mets-Pirates - 1:35 PM
--Colon is 5-0, 1.87 in his last six starts.
--Volquez is 1-2, 7.05 in his last three starts.

--Mets lost three of their last four games.
--Pirates won six of their last eight games.

--Four of last five Colon starts went over the total.

•Rockies-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--De La Rosa is 1-3, 8.06 in five starts this month.
--Gallardo is 2-0, 1.00 in his last four starts/

--Colorado lost eleven of its last twelve games.
--Brewers won ten of their last thirteen games.

--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine De La Rosa starts.

•Reds-Giants - 4:05 PM
--Bailey is 0-1, 5.71 in his last three starts.
--Hudson is 0-2, 11.32 in his last couple starts.

--Cincinnati won 12 of its last 15 road games.
--Giants lost 11 of their last 13 home games.

--Last five Hudson starts went over the total.

•Cardinals-Dodgers - 4:10 PM
--Miller is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts.
--Kershaw is 5-0, 0.97 in his last five starts.

--Cardinals are 3-4 in their last seven road games.
--Dodgers won 11 of their last 15 games.

--Under is 15-5-2 in last twenty-two St Louis games.

•Arizona-San Diego - 4:10 PM
--Arizona lost last four Bolsinger starts (0-3, 4.50).
--Despaigne threw seven shutout innings in his first MLB start.

--Diamondbacks won three of their last four games.
--Padres lost their last four home games.

--Ten of last twelve games at Petco Park stayed under.

American League
•White Sox-Blue Jays - 1:05 PM
--Quintana is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts.
--Former White Sox P Buehrle is 0-3, 4.15 in his last four starts.

--White Sox lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
--Blue Jays lost eight of their last twelve games.

--Five of last seven Quintana starts stayed under the total.

•Rays-Orioles - 1:35 PM
--Cobb is 1-5, 6.42 in his last six starts.
--Gonzalez is 1-2, 4.86 in his last three starts.

--Tampa Bay lost 12 of its last 16 road games.
--Orioles won seven of their last eleven games.

--Under is 6-3-1 in Cobb starts this season.

•Tigers-Astros - 2:10 PM
--Smyly is 2-2, 2.16 in his last four starts.
--Feldman is 0-3, 7.40 in his last five starts.

--Detroit won seven of its last nine games.
--Houston lost nine of its last twelve games.

--Six of last eight Feldman starts went over total.

•Angels-Royals - 2:10 PM
--Wilson is 2-3, 5.05 in his last six starts.
--Guthrie is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.

--Angels won seven of their last eight games.
--Kansas City lost seven of its last nine games.

--Six of last eight Guthrie starts stayed under total.

•Twins-Rangers - 3:05 PM
--Gibson is 2-1, 2.74 in his last four starts.
--Lewis is 1-2, 7.57 in his last five starts.

--Minnesota lost its last ten road games.
--Rangers lost eight of their last ten games, but won last two.

--Under is 7-1-1 in Minnesota's last nine road games.

•Indians-Mariners - 4:10 PM
--House has a 6.21 RA in last three starts, all Cleveland wins.
--Hernandez is 5-1, 1.47 in his last eight starts.

--Cleveland lost six of its last nine games.
--Seattle won six of its last eight games.

--Over is 5-2-1 in Hernandez' home starts.

•Boston-Yankees - 8:05 PM
--Lackey is 1-2, 4.08 in his last five starts.
--New York is 6-2 in Whitley starts (1-0, 2.25 in two home starts).

--Red Sox lost 13 of their last 17 road games.
--Yankees lost five of its last seven games.

--Over is 4-1-1 in last six Whitley starts.

Interleague
•Athletics-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Oakland won six of last seven Milone starts (4-0, 3.67).
--Heaney is 0-2, 4.91 in two starts this season.

--A's won ten of their last thirteen games.
--Miami lost six of its last seven home games.

--Last five Oakland games went over the total.

•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-Phil-- Nine of last 13 TBarrett games went over total.
-- NY-Pitt-- Nine of last twelve Barry games stayed under total.
-- Col-Mil-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under.
-- StL-LA-- Since 2009, under is 70-54 in Fairchild games.
-- Cin-SF-- Five of last seven Reyburn games went over total.
-- Az-SD-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Wolcott games.

-- Chi-Tor-- Underdogs are 8-7 in last fifteen Knight games.
-- LA-KC-- 10 of last 14 Tichenor games went over the total.
-- Min-Tex-- Nine of thirteen Nauert games went over total.
-- TB-Blt-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Morales games.
-- Det-Hst-- Six of last nine Ripperger games went over total.
-- Bos-NY-- Underdogs won 12 of last 14 Wegner games.
-- Cle-Sea-- Six of last seven O'Nora games stayed under.

-- A's-Mia-- Under is 11-1-1 in last thirteen Porter games.

Diamond Trends - Sunday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 4-18 (-18.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 2.9, OPPONENT 4.6.

•COLORADO is 16-3 OVER (+12.8 Units) versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 5.3, OPPONENT 6.9.

•TAMPA BAY is 10-29 (-21.7 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.4.

•YOVANI GALLARDO is 22-3 (+17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was GALLARDO 5.8, OPPONENT 2.7.

•COLBY LEWIS is 26-9 OVER (+16.1 Units) in home games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was LEWIS 7.2, OPPONENT 6.0.

•JORGE DE LA ROSA is 5-19 (-21.7 Units) against the run line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was DE LA ROSA 2.4, OPPONENT 5.9.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home teams with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - terrible offensive team (<=3.8 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA= 4.20 to 5.20) - National League, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games.
(43-17 since 1997.) (71.7%, +27.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +104.2
The average score in these games was: Team 4.9, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +1.5)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4, +11.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6, +20.1 units).

•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ST LOUIS) - terrible offensive team (<=3.8 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.00) (National League), after a game where they had at least 10 less hits than their opponent.
(39-12 since 1997.) (76.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (32-19)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.4, money line price: +107
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (52.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +5.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-5, +17.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-7, +19.2 units).

•Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (HOUSTON) - terrible American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games.
(43-15 since 1997.) (74.1%, +25.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 7.7, Money Line=-114
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.7 (Total runs scored = 6.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 34 (61.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-2, -1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4, +16.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (36-11, +23.4 units).
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Wunderdog Sports

WNBA Free Pick

Game: Connecticut Sun @ New York Liberty 3:05 PM EST

Pick: New York -2.5

Connecticut may have a winning record overall (barely), but they are a bad road team at 1-5. This is the second straight road game for Connecticut, and they come off a poor game, losing 67-63 at Washington while shooting 40% and failing to cover. They were killed on the glass, 38-25. This team has only played two road games in June (this will be the third)! The Sun is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. New York is a fine defensive team, third in the WNBA in points allowed. New York is home and hungry for a win, on a 2-8 run, but most of that has been on the road. They are 1-1 the last two games, losing a close one to Chicago and upsetting Atlanta 85-78 as a +4.5 dog. Even in the loss to Chicago, they didn't quit. New York trailed by 13 at the half before pulling to 71-69 with 45 seconds left. This is the third game of a nice five-game home stand, making this a terrific situational spot for the home team. Play New York!
 
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Wunderdog Sports

MLB Free Pick

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays 1:05 PM EST

Pick: Toronto -133

The White Sox are 6-21 in their last 27 road games against a left-handed starter, and today they face one of the best in Mark Buehrle (10-4, 2.52 ERA). The Blue Jays are 12-4 in Buehrle's last 16 starts, plus 14-3 in his last 17 starts against a team with a losing record. This first-place Toronto offense is dynamite, third in baseball in runs scored and slugging. Chicago has had a losing month and winds up a 10-game road trip here. Chicago lefty Jose Quintana is 3-5 on the road, and the White Sox are 1-10 in Quintana's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. So grab the home team with their ace. Play Toronto.
 
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HARRY BONDI

MLB Bonus Play

TAMPA BAY (-115) over Baltimore
1:35 p.m. ET

Another FREE WINNER on Cincinnati last night insures another winning week and we will add to the profit this afternoon with Tampa Bay over Baltimore. Rays starter Alex Cobb is an enigma. He has great stuff but you would never know it by his 2-6 record. Going inside the numbers we find that Cobb has a 1.97 ERA in day games compared to 6.59 at night! He also pitches better against Baltimore than any other team in MLB! Cobb is 3-1 with a 1.36 ERA in five career starts against Baltimore and since today’s game is a day game at Camden Yards we will play the numbers and back Cobb over the Birds this afternoon.
 
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BOB BALFE

ATLANTA BRAVES -125
(Harang/Buchanan)

The Phillies are on of those teams that could load the bases with no outs and you are pretty confident they still wont score a run. This team is brutal to watch and todays pitching matchup clearly favors Atlanta. Take the Braves.
 
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GC: MLB Play

Sunday in MLB its the ESPN Total of the Month from an Undefeated Totals system, their also a Triple Perfect totals system in the Afternoon and Another World Cup winner from a 24-1 Statistical indicator. Saturday card sweeps going 5-0. MLB Play below.​

On Sunday the MLB System play is on the Detroit Tigers. Game 217 at 2:10 eastern. Detroit came from behind on Saturday to beat Houston and will look to take the rubber game in the series. Houston is 1-20 off a loss where they scored 5 or less runs and led after 8 innings. The Tigers are 13-4 with a total between 8 and 8.5 and they are averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. In contrast Houston has struggled at the plate, averaging 2.5 runs the past week. The Astros have lost 5 of 6 here vs Detroit. They have S. Feldman on the mound. However he has a 4.89 home era and a 8.73 era vs Detroit. D. Smyly for the Tigers has been hot of late with a 1.42 era in his last 3 starts. To tie a nice system from the database in this one. We note that certain road favorites, like Detroit that are off a 1 run road favored win and scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits are 15-5 vs an opponent of a home dog loss, if both teams had no errors. Look for Detroit to take the finale. On Sunday its the ESPN Total of the Month from a Powerful never lost totals system. There is also a Tripe Perfect Afternoon totals play from a system that beats the line by 3 runs. In World cup action its 24-1 Power Indicator. Saturday card sweeps at 5-0. Jump on and end the week big. For the free MLB Play take Detroit. GC
 
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ANDRE GOMES

Soccer World Cup Play: Netherlands vs. Mexico

I think that the Dutch team is clearly overrated for this contest and we are getting some value w/ Mexico at this current price.
Arjen Robben has been one of the best players of the tournament so far, and the return of Robbie Van Persie will make them a super dangerous team on the break.
However, I think that their defensive line is “suspicious” to say the least and their midfield unit will be outplayed by the Mexican most physical unit.
I’ve faded them vs. Chile in the last game of the group stages w/ no success:


“I expect the Dutch defense to have some huge problems vs. Chile’s quick and mobile forwards. In this tournament, Netherlands is using a very high positioned defensive line… both Spain and Australia created problems by passing the ball on their backs and this won’t be much different for today. The “difference” is that Chile’s forwards are more equipped and dangerous giving such wide space to them vs. Spanish & Australian forwards.”
Well, the Dutch did the exact opposite in that game! They were ultra conservative, gave the “ball possession” to the Chileans and tried to do some damage in quick counter-attack moves – it worked perfectly for them!
I’ve just checked their starting lineup for today and it looks like they will use a more offensive 4-3-3 formation w/ the inclusion of Dirk Kuijt in the starting XI, so I expect them to be more proactive.
On the other side, I really liked the way they have played in this World Cup – they have exceeded my best expectations! The key for such good “dynamic” has been their midfield unit of Herrera, Salcido and Guardado – they are playing w/ great tempo and are dominating the games strength-wise.


I expect Mexico to be more ready for this contest physically and this will show up especially late in the game.
W/ this more offensive approach from the Dutch on the paper judging their starting XI, I also expect this contest to have some goals as well.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Mexico (+0.5) @ -125
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.25 Goals @ -101
 
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Prediction Machine

ML:
Colorado Rockies +155

O/U:
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers Under 8.5 -105

RL:
Colorado Rockies +1.5 -140
Minnesota Twins +1.5 -175
 
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Sports Picks Portfolio

MLB

Under 8 -122 Oakland Athletics/Miami Marlins
Under 8.5 -113 Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies
Under 9.5 -125 Minnesota Twins/Texas Rangers
Cincinnati Reds +109
Under 7 -115 Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres
Over 8.5 -114 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees
 
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Vegas Sports Insiders

SUNDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)

20* MLB Pirates -120 and 10* MLB OVER 7.5

20* MLB Dodgers -1.5 and 10* MLB UNDER 6.5

20* MLB Red Sox -105 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5

20* MLB Twins +110 and 10* MLB OVER 9

20* MLB Phillies +110 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5
 
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Under Umpire Streakers

1 Unit #927 OAK/MIA UN7.5 -110 Porter 1ov/9un L10gms 90%

1 Unit #903 NYM/PIT UN7.5 -110 Barry 3ov/7un L10gms 70%

1 Unit #923 CLE/SEA UN6.5 -115 Onora 3ov/7un L10gms 70%
 
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Marc Lawrence

MLB

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets

Edges - Mets: Colon 6-1 with 1.58 ERA last seven team starts; and Colon 3-0 with 0.88 ERA last three starts vs. Pittsburgh; and Colon 13-3 last sixteen team starts during June, including 5-1 last six away. Pirates: Volquez 1-7 career teams starts vs. the Mets. With the Mets 3-0 versus N.L. Central foes behind Colon this season, and Colon in strong KW form with 16 K's and 2 Walks his last three starts, look for the Pirates to fall to 1-5 in day games behind Volquez here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the N.Y. Mets.
 

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