*** EZWINNERS MLB ***
2 STAR: (912) PITTSBURGH (+$111) over Tampa Bay
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $222)
12:35PM Central Time
2 STAR: (921) ST. LOUIS (+$105) OVER Kansas City
(Listing Looper Only)
(Risking $200 to win $210)
1:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (905) ATLANTA (+$138) over Toronto
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $138
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (928) TEXAS (+$105) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $105)
5:05PM Central Time<!-- / message -->
2 STAR: (912) PITTSBURGH (+$111) over Tampa Bay
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $222)
12:35PM Central Time
2 STAR: (921) ST. LOUIS (+$105) OVER Kansas City
(Listing Looper Only)
(Risking $200 to win $210)
1:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (905) ATLANTA (+$138) over Toronto
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $138
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (928) TEXAS (+$105) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $105)
5:05PM Central Time<!-- / message -->
Frank Rosenthal
SUNDAY, JUNE 29, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
901 DBACKS-125+
906 JAYS-145 SB
909 YANKS OVER 9.5 SB+
918 CWS-135 SB
OVER 9 SB+
922 KC-110 SB
924 PADRES-140 SB
926 A'S-140 SB
929 ANGELS-110 SB
UNDER 7 SB+
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO.
SUNDAY, JUNE 29, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
901 DBACKS-125+
906 JAYS-145 SB
909 YANKS OVER 9.5 SB+
918 CWS-135 SB
OVER 9 SB+
922 KC-110 SB
924 PADRES-140 SB
926 A'S-140 SB
929 ANGELS-110 SB
UNDER 7 SB+
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO.
Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: Brutal. We were looking really good for a double-win behind the road-course-savvy hands of Tony Stewart. Smoke had just jumped into second place at Sonoma with about 20 laps to go when a few knuckleheads behind him decided to make trouble, wrecking themselves and spinning out Stewart in the process. The No. 20 could only get back to 10th place, which wasn't enough to give him a win in our head-to-head match against Juan Pablo Montoya. And that bad luck puts us on our first three-race losing streak of the season. For the week, we lost 1.5 units; for the season, we've still profited 3.2 units on 23 units wagered, a return of 13.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 12 of 16 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost four units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 6.74 units on 63 units wagered, a return of 10.7%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Denny Hamlin (+700), 1/6th unit. This weekend, we head to the flat track at Loudon. Now, Hamlin gives you a shot at a win every time he comes to a flat track. He won at Martinsville this season, he was third at Phoenix (with a legit chance to win that race) and he led 380 laps at Richmond before blowing a tire from the lead. Hamlin also has a career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, in this race last season. Something does always seem to happen to him while he's leading races late, but still, he's a very solid bet to be in contention on Sunday.
Take Kyle Busch (+500), 1/6th unit. There's no sense betting against this particular winning streak any longer. The younger Busch has five wins in not quite half a season, and it was pretty much unthinkable that he'd dominate a road course like he did at Sonoma last weekend. He's just absolutely on fire. Plus in his career he has four finishes of 11th or better at Loudon in six tries, including a victory back in the spring of '06. Think of this as insurance against yet another dominant effort by the Shrub.
Take Clint Bowyer (+1500), 1/6th unit. Bowyer has been the most consistent driver on flat tracks this year. He finished 10th at Martinsville, second at Phoenix, and he was able to pick up the scraps from Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800) at Richmond, and take his second career win. Plus remember: his first career win came at this very track last September, when he dominated in the Car of Tomorrow, leading 222 laps, and momentarily taking the lead in the Chase for the Championship. This week, I'd scoop him up while his odds are this long.
Last Week: Brutal. We were looking really good for a double-win behind the road-course-savvy hands of Tony Stewart. Smoke had just jumped into second place at Sonoma with about 20 laps to go when a few knuckleheads behind him decided to make trouble, wrecking themselves and spinning out Stewart in the process. The No. 20 could only get back to 10th place, which wasn't enough to give him a win in our head-to-head match against Juan Pablo Montoya. And that bad luck puts us on our first three-race losing streak of the season. For the week, we lost 1.5 units; for the season, we've still profited 3.2 units on 23 units wagered, a return of 13.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 12 of 16 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost four units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 6.74 units on 63 units wagered, a return of 10.7%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Denny Hamlin (+700), 1/6th unit. This weekend, we head to the flat track at Loudon. Now, Hamlin gives you a shot at a win every time he comes to a flat track. He won at Martinsville this season, he was third at Phoenix (with a legit chance to win that race) and he led 380 laps at Richmond before blowing a tire from the lead. Hamlin also has a career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, in this race last season. Something does always seem to happen to him while he's leading races late, but still, he's a very solid bet to be in contention on Sunday.
Take Kyle Busch (+500), 1/6th unit. There's no sense betting against this particular winning streak any longer. The younger Busch has five wins in not quite half a season, and it was pretty much unthinkable that he'd dominate a road course like he did at Sonoma last weekend. He's just absolutely on fire. Plus in his career he has four finishes of 11th or better at Loudon in six tries, including a victory back in the spring of '06. Think of this as insurance against yet another dominant effort by the Shrub.
Take Clint Bowyer (+1500), 1/6th unit. Bowyer has been the most consistent driver on flat tracks this year. He finished 10th at Martinsville, second at Phoenix, and he was able to pick up the scraps from Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800) at Richmond, and take his second career win. Plus remember: his first career win came at this very track last September, when he dominated in the Car of Tomorrow, leading 222 laps, and momentarily taking the lead in the Chase for the Championship. This week, I'd scoop him up while his odds are this long.
33-17 confirmed posted since here since 2-0
GL.....
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 29 2008 4:10PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 7 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 6* ANGELS/DODGERS Under
Offense does not get any worse than the showing that these two put on last night - no earned runs, one extra base hit, 19 strikeouts. But it was not merely “one of those nights”. Rather it was a reflection of two struggling offenses against good pitching. And that does not change today.
We have cashed a pair of 6* Under tickets in Dodger games this weak and the bottom line is that an offense without power (an anemic 53 home runs), is hard-pressed to make anything happen until Rafael Furcal returns. They have only scored 23 runs in eight games on this home stand, and note that two of those games went into extra innings. Now it is the dominating form of John Lackey that they have to face, and his 5-1/1.65 does not lie - he has allowed only 45 hits and 11 walks in 60 innings, while striking out 45. While some pitchers have bad games, with Lackey we have to search hard to even find bad innings - only twice in his first 60 has the opposition scored more than a single run in a frame. And the Angels have the entire bullpen rested and ready behind him, meaning nine innings of tough swings for the Los Angeles hitters.
Meanwhile one of our 6* success came behind Derek Lowe on Tuesday night, despite the fact that he walked away with a box score that many will judge as below average - 7.1 innings, five runs, nine hits. Rarely could a box be more wrong. Lowe’s stuff that night was as good as we have seen from him in any outing this season. Not only did he throw strikes (72 of 104 pitches were in the zone), but they were strikes in difficult places that made good contact almost impossible. But Joe Torre left him in a bit too long, sending him the mound down 2-1 after seven innings, and he finally made a mistake in the 8th that Jermaine Dye hit out of the park. Considering Dye’s spectacular current run, it is not much of a negative. Here is the real story of Lowe’s night - of the 25 outs he recorded only one came in the air, with 16 on the ground and eight strikeouts. He only walked one batter. That is good stuff, and it continues a run that has him at a 2.59 over his last seven starts, and the feeble Angel offense, which has yet to score in this series, does not turn that around.
While Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito have each worked the first two games of this series, their fatigue ratings are not bad. Broxton has not been scored on in his last 10 outings, and has only needed 30 pitches the first two games, while Saito checks in at 35, which has him available. That means another day in which the offenses are simply overmatched, and we can grab yet another 6* ticket to take advantage.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers OFF
OFF
-115
7
105 -118
7
105
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Jun 29 2008 2:05PM
PICK: Boston Red Sox
Your pick will be graded at: -163 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 3* BOSTON over HOUSTON
There are few situations in sport that we can rely on more than the true “A” team bouncing back off of a bitter defeat. Baseball is obviously a little different from football and basketball in that regard, because the starting pitcher changes each day, and also has such an impact on the game. But what happens when an “A” team if off of a loss and has their ace going? Good things. And that puts us in the right place at the right time to back the Red Sox today.
This will be the 22nd time over the past two seasons that Josh Beckett has taken the mound for Boston off of a Red Sox defeat. The first 21 games have cashed at a 15-6 rate, a sizzling 71.4 percent winning clip. And the current form of Beckett makes this an outstanding fit. In five of his last six starts he has allowed two runs or less, a span in which he has compiled a dominating count of 41 strikeouts vs. only seven walks, but we get a price break because the wins did not pile up in that span - he actually twice lost games in which he only allowed two runs.
Today Beckett gets that support as the Red Sox face the mediocre stuff of Brian Moehler. Moehler has worked to a respectable 4-3/4.03, doing in by working the corners and getting opposing hitters to swing at bad pitches. But now he faces his most awkward challenge - a disciplined lineup that is not going to swing at many of those pitches that are over the black border of the plate, and will instead force the ball into the middle of the strike zone. They enter today tied for the Major League lead in walks, and that is going to force Moehler out of his preferred rhythm. When that happens, his stuff is nothing special at all.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
-167
8.5
-105 -167
8.5
-110
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals Jun 29 2008 1:35PM
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
Your pick will be graded at: -127 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* BALTIMORE over WASHINGTON
It is no secret that the Nationals have been awful offensively without Ryan Zimmerman and Dan Johnson. It is also not a secret that quality pitchers dominate weak lineups. But what seems to be a secret, in terms of the value that we see in this game, is just how bad the Nationals have been in this setting. And perhaps how good Jeremy Guthrie really is.
Here is list of pitchers Washington has faced that we rate in the upper third of MLB right-handers - Tim Hudson (twice). Adam Wainwright. John Smoltz (twice). John Maine. Ryan Dempster. Carlos Zambrano. Roy Oswalt. Jeremy Guthrie. Ben Sheets. Brandon Webb. Danny Haren. Tim Lincecum. John Lackey. Ervin Santana. How did the Nationals fare in those games? A dismal 5-12. But as bad as that is, if we go further we find and even more significant truth - those starters worked to a 10-2/1.80 tune over 120.1 innings in those games. They averaged over seven innings per start, and 16 of the 17 qualified as quality starts (in the only miss, Ervin Santana allowed four runs in six innings).
Now on to Guthrie. He has been a classic example of a tough luck pitcher the past two seasons, with a 10-12 record as a starter despite a 3.53 ERA over 272.2 innings. But those have been awfully good innings, coming out of the A.L. East, where a lot of your pitches have to be thrown against the Yankees and Red Sox (10 of his 43 starts have been against those two teams). And as for the 3.64 allowance this season, how about a road schedule that has had him already work against the Cubs, Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Angels and A’s? Overall 12 of his 17 starts have come against teams that currently sport winning records. So what happens when he steps down in class? Good things. In the five games against losing teams it has been a 1.96 ERA, and perhaps even more impressive is a count of 36.2 innings in those games. Now he gets a chance to step way down in class, and will do it with a chip on his shoulder -as part of a tough-luck cycle this season he allowed only one run on five hits at home against Washington back on May 18, but left trailing 1-0, and got tagged with a loss in a game that the Orioles lost 2-1.
Much has changed since then. The Baltimore offense has found its way, scoring 5.8 runs per game in the current 15-9 clip, and the run has come in a most difficult schedule stretch - 17 of those 24 games came against teams that sport winning records. They can send a lot of left-handed punch out against Jason Bergmann, who continues to struggle vs. hitters from that side - he has allowed lefties to hit .314 this season, and the past two seasons the gap is 64 points between left and right for him. That means plenty of support for Guthrie, and after the way he lost the last time to these Nats, it will be an offense coming to the table with an extra spark, knowing that they owe him one.
GL.....
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 29 2008 4:10PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 7 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 6* ANGELS/DODGERS Under
Offense does not get any worse than the showing that these two put on last night - no earned runs, one extra base hit, 19 strikeouts. But it was not merely “one of those nights”. Rather it was a reflection of two struggling offenses against good pitching. And that does not change today.
We have cashed a pair of 6* Under tickets in Dodger games this weak and the bottom line is that an offense without power (an anemic 53 home runs), is hard-pressed to make anything happen until Rafael Furcal returns. They have only scored 23 runs in eight games on this home stand, and note that two of those games went into extra innings. Now it is the dominating form of John Lackey that they have to face, and his 5-1/1.65 does not lie - he has allowed only 45 hits and 11 walks in 60 innings, while striking out 45. While some pitchers have bad games, with Lackey we have to search hard to even find bad innings - only twice in his first 60 has the opposition scored more than a single run in a frame. And the Angels have the entire bullpen rested and ready behind him, meaning nine innings of tough swings for the Los Angeles hitters.
Meanwhile one of our 6* success came behind Derek Lowe on Tuesday night, despite the fact that he walked away with a box score that many will judge as below average - 7.1 innings, five runs, nine hits. Rarely could a box be more wrong. Lowe’s stuff that night was as good as we have seen from him in any outing this season. Not only did he throw strikes (72 of 104 pitches were in the zone), but they were strikes in difficult places that made good contact almost impossible. But Joe Torre left him in a bit too long, sending him the mound down 2-1 after seven innings, and he finally made a mistake in the 8th that Jermaine Dye hit out of the park. Considering Dye’s spectacular current run, it is not much of a negative. Here is the real story of Lowe’s night - of the 25 outs he recorded only one came in the air, with 16 on the ground and eight strikeouts. He only walked one batter. That is good stuff, and it continues a run that has him at a 2.59 over his last seven starts, and the feeble Angel offense, which has yet to score in this series, does not turn that around.
While Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito have each worked the first two games of this series, their fatigue ratings are not bad. Broxton has not been scored on in his last 10 outings, and has only needed 30 pitches the first two games, while Saito checks in at 35, which has him available. That means another day in which the offenses are simply overmatched, and we can grab yet another 6* ticket to take advantage.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers OFF
OFF
-115
7
105 -118
7
105
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Jun 29 2008 2:05PM
PICK: Boston Red Sox
Your pick will be graded at: -163 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 3* BOSTON over HOUSTON
There are few situations in sport that we can rely on more than the true “A” team bouncing back off of a bitter defeat. Baseball is obviously a little different from football and basketball in that regard, because the starting pitcher changes each day, and also has such an impact on the game. But what happens when an “A” team if off of a loss and has their ace going? Good things. And that puts us in the right place at the right time to back the Red Sox today.
This will be the 22nd time over the past two seasons that Josh Beckett has taken the mound for Boston off of a Red Sox defeat. The first 21 games have cashed at a 15-6 rate, a sizzling 71.4 percent winning clip. And the current form of Beckett makes this an outstanding fit. In five of his last six starts he has allowed two runs or less, a span in which he has compiled a dominating count of 41 strikeouts vs. only seven walks, but we get a price break because the wins did not pile up in that span - he actually twice lost games in which he only allowed two runs.
Today Beckett gets that support as the Red Sox face the mediocre stuff of Brian Moehler. Moehler has worked to a respectable 4-3/4.03, doing in by working the corners and getting opposing hitters to swing at bad pitches. But now he faces his most awkward challenge - a disciplined lineup that is not going to swing at many of those pitches that are over the black border of the plate, and will instead force the ball into the middle of the strike zone. They enter today tied for the Major League lead in walks, and that is going to force Moehler out of his preferred rhythm. When that happens, his stuff is nothing special at all.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
-167
8.5
-105 -167
8.5
-110
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals Jun 29 2008 1:35PM
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
Your pick will be graded at: -127 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* BALTIMORE over WASHINGTON
It is no secret that the Nationals have been awful offensively without Ryan Zimmerman and Dan Johnson. It is also not a secret that quality pitchers dominate weak lineups. But what seems to be a secret, in terms of the value that we see in this game, is just how bad the Nationals have been in this setting. And perhaps how good Jeremy Guthrie really is.
Here is list of pitchers Washington has faced that we rate in the upper third of MLB right-handers - Tim Hudson (twice). Adam Wainwright. John Smoltz (twice). John Maine. Ryan Dempster. Carlos Zambrano. Roy Oswalt. Jeremy Guthrie. Ben Sheets. Brandon Webb. Danny Haren. Tim Lincecum. John Lackey. Ervin Santana. How did the Nationals fare in those games? A dismal 5-12. But as bad as that is, if we go further we find and even more significant truth - those starters worked to a 10-2/1.80 tune over 120.1 innings in those games. They averaged over seven innings per start, and 16 of the 17 qualified as quality starts (in the only miss, Ervin Santana allowed four runs in six innings).
Now on to Guthrie. He has been a classic example of a tough luck pitcher the past two seasons, with a 10-12 record as a starter despite a 3.53 ERA over 272.2 innings. But those have been awfully good innings, coming out of the A.L. East, where a lot of your pitches have to be thrown against the Yankees and Red Sox (10 of his 43 starts have been against those two teams). And as for the 3.64 allowance this season, how about a road schedule that has had him already work against the Cubs, Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Angels and A’s? Overall 12 of his 17 starts have come against teams that currently sport winning records. So what happens when he steps down in class? Good things. In the five games against losing teams it has been a 1.96 ERA, and perhaps even more impressive is a count of 36.2 innings in those games. Now he gets a chance to step way down in class, and will do it with a chip on his shoulder -as part of a tough-luck cycle this season he allowed only one run on five hits at home against Washington back on May 18, but left trailing 1-0, and got tagged with a loss in a game that the Orioles lost 2-1.
Much has changed since then. The Baltimore offense has found its way, scoring 5.8 runs per game in the current 15-9 clip, and the run has come in a most difficult schedule stretch - 17 of those 24 games came against teams that sport winning records. They can send a lot of left-handed punch out against Jason Bergmann, who continues to struggle vs. hitters from that side - he has allowed lefties to hit .314 this season, and the past two seasons the gap is 64 points between left and right for him. That means plenty of support for Guthrie, and after the way he lost the last time to these Nats, it will be an offense coming to the table with an extra spark, knowing that they owe him one.
JB's Computer plays
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Time Game Selections
1:05 p.m. Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
(R) Greg Reynolds (2-5) vs. (L) Kenny Rogers (5-5) Detroit Tigers -170 * * *
2:10 p.m. Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
(R) Ben Sheets (9-1) vs. (R) Kevin Slowey (4-6) Milwaukee Brewers -135
4:10 p.m. Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
(R) John Lackey (5-1) vs. (R) Derek Lowe (5-7) Los Angeles Angels -125
Best Bet***
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Time Game Selections
1:05 p.m. Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
(R) Greg Reynolds (2-5) vs. (L) Kenny Rogers (5-5) Detroit Tigers -170 * * *
2:10 p.m. Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
(R) Ben Sheets (9-1) vs. (R) Kevin Slowey (4-6) Milwaukee Brewers -135
4:10 p.m. Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
(R) John Lackey (5-1) vs. (R) Derek Lowe (5-7) Los Angeles Angels -125
Best Bet***
Jeff Benton
Sunday's winners ...
15 Dime: BRAVES (over Blue Jays) ... NOTE: List Burnett and Reyes as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
10 Dime: METS (over Yankees) ... NOTE: List Perez and Rasner as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
10 Dime: BREWERS (over Twins) ... NOTE: List only Sheets as the Brewers' starting pitcher. If Sheets does not start, this play is VOID!
__________________
Sunday's winners ...
15 Dime: BRAVES (over Blue Jays) ... NOTE: List Burnett and Reyes as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
10 Dime: METS (over Yankees) ... NOTE: List Perez and Rasner as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
10 Dime: BREWERS (over Twins) ... NOTE: List only Sheets as the Brewers' starting pitcher. If Sheets does not start, this play is VOID!
__________________
