Diamond Dog Sports
Sides
#907: Reds: +115 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Leake / Estrada
#924: Astros: +160 (1*)
Listed Pitchers: Price / Peacock
Totals
#911/912: Under Giants: 7.0 (+105) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Nicasio / Bumgarner
#915/916: Over Tigers: 9.0 (-115) (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Nolasco / Porcello
Sides
#907: Reds: +115 (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Leake / Estrada
#924: Astros: +160 (1*)
Listed Pitchers: Price / Peacock
Totals
#911/912: Under Giants: 7.0 (+105) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Nicasio / Bumgarner
#915/916: Over Tigers: 9.0 (-115) (1.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Nolasco / Porcello
GC: MLB Play
On Sunday the play is on the Detroit Tigers. Game 916 at 1:05 eastern. The Tigers will look to take the rubber game of the series today and we note that they are 16-3 at home off a home win where they scored 10 or more runs. Minnesota has lost 4 of 5 on the road off a road loss where they scored 5 or more runs. That brings us to the system in this game. We are playing on certain home favorites that are off a home Favored win from -140 to -199 that won by 2 or more runs and score 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a +140 or higher road dog loss by 2 or more runs but scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits with no error. Some what complicated system but it has won 15 of 16 times, The Tigers have R. Porcello going and he has won 9 of his last 12 home starts. He will oppose Twins righty Ricky Nolasco who has a dreadful 7.31 road era. We will go with Detroit today. On Sunday its the highest rated 7* NBA 36-2 PLAYOFF Game of the Year. NBA Top plays on a 6-2 run. We also have a powerful 90% totals system in this game. In MLB We have the ESPN Sunday night game. Jump on and cash out as we end the week big on Fathers Day. For the Bonus Play take Detroit. GC
Fathers Day Sunday has the 36-2 NBA 7* Highest Rated Playoff Game of the Year. There is also a 90% totals system in the game. We also have the Sunday night 100% ESPN MLB System play.NBA Top plays on a 6-2 run. MLB System play below.
On Sunday the play is on the Detroit Tigers. Game 916 at 1:05 eastern. The Tigers will look to take the rubber game of the series today and we note that they are 16-3 at home off a home win where they scored 10 or more runs. Minnesota has lost 4 of 5 on the road off a road loss where they scored 5 or more runs. That brings us to the system in this game. We are playing on certain home favorites that are off a home Favored win from -140 to -199 that won by 2 or more runs and score 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a +140 or higher road dog loss by 2 or more runs but scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits with no error. Some what complicated system but it has won 15 of 16 times, The Tigers have R. Porcello going and he has won 9 of his last 12 home starts. He will oppose Twins righty Ricky Nolasco who has a dreadful 7.31 road era. We will go with Detroit today. On Sunday its the highest rated 7* NBA 36-2 PLAYOFF Game of the Year. NBA Top plays on a 6-2 run. We also have a powerful 90% totals system in this game. In MLB We have the ESPN Sunday night game. Jump on and cash out as we end the week big on Fathers Day. For the Bonus Play take Detroit. GC
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Time: Sunday 06/15 1:10 PM Eastern
Pick: New York +110 (moneyline) at Bookmaker
A good spot for the New York Mets to break out of their funk, playing their sixth straight home game. San Diego is 3,000 miles from home playing its sixth straight road game, part of an eight-game trip. The Padres are on a 1-5 run. The last two times they were favored they lost 7-3 and 6-2. That's what happens when you're stuck with the worst offense in baseball, 30th in runs and on base percentage, 29th in slugging. The team is 3-5 in San Diego starter Ian Kennedy's last eight starts, and he got pounded the last game giving up five runs in seven innings of a 5-2 loss at the punchless Philllies. San Diego is 21-34 against right-handed starters this season, so grab the home dog. Play the New York Mets.
Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Time: Sunday 06/15 1:10 PM Eastern
Pick: New York +110 (moneyline) at Bookmaker
A good spot for the New York Mets to break out of their funk, playing their sixth straight home game. San Diego is 3,000 miles from home playing its sixth straight road game, part of an eight-game trip. The Padres are on a 1-5 run. The last two times they were favored they lost 7-3 and 6-2. That's what happens when you're stuck with the worst offense in baseball, 30th in runs and on base percentage, 29th in slugging. The team is 3-5 in San Diego starter Ian Kennedy's last eight starts, and he got pounded the last game giving up five runs in seven innings of a 5-2 loss at the punchless Philllies. San Diego is 21-34 against right-handed starters this season, so grab the home dog. Play the New York Mets.
SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Pittsburgh @ MIAMI
Pittsburgh/MIAMI over 7½ -101
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Marlins and Pirates have combined for 54 hits and 28 runs in the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh alone had 17 hits on Friday and 18 hits on Saturday and now we get a very beatable number because of Henderson Alvarez’s 2.56 ERA. Alvarez is 3-1 at home with a 1.47 ERA but it cannot last. Alvarez has not been able to turn his 93 MPH fastball into strikeouts. He has just 50 K’s in 81 innings and his 1.28 WHIP is above league average. His average swing and miss rate doesn't offer much hope for more Ks in the near future either. Alvarez has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 86% strand rate, which is the second highest mark among starters with eight or more starts. His surface stats are tempting to buy but his skills say a serious ERA correction is forthcoming. Alvarez is grossly overvalued and provides us with a solid over bet (not fade) because the opposing pitcher may be worse.
Vance Worley makes his first start of the year. In 10 games started last year for the Twins, Worley went 1-5 with an ERA of 7.31 and an oppBA of .368. Only two of his 10 starts were of the pure quality variety. Worley’s 2011 success seems long ago. Bone spurs hurt his 2012 results but they don't explain the 2013 debacle. In 2011 and 2012 Worley recorded a decent amount of K’s but his swing and miss rate said it wasn't going to last, and it didn't. His luck may turn at some point and but when the Twins don’t want you and your skills start this low, chances of success are slim. Expect plenty more hits and runs in this one.
Kansas City @ CHICAGO
Kansas City -1½ +115 over CHICAGO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)
The Royals hung a five in the fourth inning of yesterday’s game en route to a 9-1 win and they hung a four in the first inning of Friday’s 7-2 win. The Royals have another great chance of putting up another crooked number against Andre Rienzo. Rienzo is 4-3 in nine games started with an ERA of 5.25. He also has a 1.50 WHIP and the White Sox have lost his last three games by scores of 8-4, 4-2, and 7-1. Rienzo’s poor surface stats this year are supported by his poor beneath the hood stats and there are no signs of improvement. This Brazilian import has not been able to miss MLB bats like he did in minors. His curveball is a legit strikeout pitch but lack of other dominant pitches and weak velocity don't bode for him at this park. Chronic wildness usually seals his fate and he’ll now face a team that’s seeing beach balls.
K.C. has now won 10 of its last 11 games at U.S. Cellular Field and they’ve won six in a row overall while outscoring their opposition 39-14 over that span. They’ve also won the last seven games that James Shields’ has started. With nine pure quality starts in 14 games, a skills supported 3.44 ERA, outstanding control (21 BB in 92 IP) and a groundball ball bias profile (51%/30% GB/FB) Shields’ is as reliable as almost any pitcher in the game. For whatever reason the Royals thrive at this park. They came into this series swinging some warm bats and subsequently buried the South Side in both games so far. The beat figures to continue in this one.
N.Y. Yankees @ OAKLAND
N.Y. Yankees +158 over OAKLAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.16)
Vidal Nuno has an ugly 4.97 ERA after appearing in 13 games, 10 as a starter. Nuno got off to a very rocky start and in fact, after his April 20th start, he had an ERA of 6.75. Since then he’s been able to shave off nearly two runs per game on his ERA and over his last five starts covering 30 innings, he’s posted an ERA of 3.60. Nuno has a BB/K split of 4/23 over that same span of 30 innings and if not for an unlucky 69% strand rate his numbers would be even better. Pitching much better and with more confidence than he had when he first came up, Nuno offers up some nice value here against Jesse Chavez.
Jesse Chavez started the season in fine form. He had a 1.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP inn April. Since then, he has been more mediocre than dominant. His skills over the last month were poor and they are showing no signs of improving. Chavez continues to pitch well against RH bats but he can’t get lefties out consistently and that’s a problem here. Lefties are hitting .292 against Chavez with a SLG% of .400 and an OPS of .755. Risk averse bettors should definitely avoid him today because the Yanks will send out a lefty-heavy lineup that includes Brett Gardiner, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, Yangervis Solarte, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki. Mark Teixeira is a switch hitter also and is questionable for today’s game. Still, the Yanks are loaded on the left side, they’ve won four of five and at this price against Chavez they are very worthy of backing.
MLB
Pittsburgh @ MIAMI
Pittsburgh/MIAMI over 7½ -101
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Marlins and Pirates have combined for 54 hits and 28 runs in the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh alone had 17 hits on Friday and 18 hits on Saturday and now we get a very beatable number because of Henderson Alvarez’s 2.56 ERA. Alvarez is 3-1 at home with a 1.47 ERA but it cannot last. Alvarez has not been able to turn his 93 MPH fastball into strikeouts. He has just 50 K’s in 81 innings and his 1.28 WHIP is above league average. His average swing and miss rate doesn't offer much hope for more Ks in the near future either. Alvarez has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 86% strand rate, which is the second highest mark among starters with eight or more starts. His surface stats are tempting to buy but his skills say a serious ERA correction is forthcoming. Alvarez is grossly overvalued and provides us with a solid over bet (not fade) because the opposing pitcher may be worse.
Vance Worley makes his first start of the year. In 10 games started last year for the Twins, Worley went 1-5 with an ERA of 7.31 and an oppBA of .368. Only two of his 10 starts were of the pure quality variety. Worley’s 2011 success seems long ago. Bone spurs hurt his 2012 results but they don't explain the 2013 debacle. In 2011 and 2012 Worley recorded a decent amount of K’s but his swing and miss rate said it wasn't going to last, and it didn't. His luck may turn at some point and but when the Twins don’t want you and your skills start this low, chances of success are slim. Expect plenty more hits and runs in this one.
Kansas City @ CHICAGO
Kansas City -1½ +115 over CHICAGO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)
The Royals hung a five in the fourth inning of yesterday’s game en route to a 9-1 win and they hung a four in the first inning of Friday’s 7-2 win. The Royals have another great chance of putting up another crooked number against Andre Rienzo. Rienzo is 4-3 in nine games started with an ERA of 5.25. He also has a 1.50 WHIP and the White Sox have lost his last three games by scores of 8-4, 4-2, and 7-1. Rienzo’s poor surface stats this year are supported by his poor beneath the hood stats and there are no signs of improvement. This Brazilian import has not been able to miss MLB bats like he did in minors. His curveball is a legit strikeout pitch but lack of other dominant pitches and weak velocity don't bode for him at this park. Chronic wildness usually seals his fate and he’ll now face a team that’s seeing beach balls.
K.C. has now won 10 of its last 11 games at U.S. Cellular Field and they’ve won six in a row overall while outscoring their opposition 39-14 over that span. They’ve also won the last seven games that James Shields’ has started. With nine pure quality starts in 14 games, a skills supported 3.44 ERA, outstanding control (21 BB in 92 IP) and a groundball ball bias profile (51%/30% GB/FB) Shields’ is as reliable as almost any pitcher in the game. For whatever reason the Royals thrive at this park. They came into this series swinging some warm bats and subsequently buried the South Side in both games so far. The beat figures to continue in this one.
N.Y. Yankees @ OAKLAND
N.Y. Yankees +158 over OAKLAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.16)
Vidal Nuno has an ugly 4.97 ERA after appearing in 13 games, 10 as a starter. Nuno got off to a very rocky start and in fact, after his April 20th start, he had an ERA of 6.75. Since then he’s been able to shave off nearly two runs per game on his ERA and over his last five starts covering 30 innings, he’s posted an ERA of 3.60. Nuno has a BB/K split of 4/23 over that same span of 30 innings and if not for an unlucky 69% strand rate his numbers would be even better. Pitching much better and with more confidence than he had when he first came up, Nuno offers up some nice value here against Jesse Chavez.
Jesse Chavez started the season in fine form. He had a 1.89 ERA and 0.95 WHIP inn April. Since then, he has been more mediocre than dominant. His skills over the last month were poor and they are showing no signs of improving. Chavez continues to pitch well against RH bats but he can’t get lefties out consistently and that’s a problem here. Lefties are hitting .292 against Chavez with a SLG% of .400 and an OPS of .755. Risk averse bettors should definitely avoid him today because the Yanks will send out a lefty-heavy lineup that includes Brett Gardiner, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, Yangervis Solarte, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro Suzuki. Mark Teixeira is a switch hitter also and is questionable for today’s game. Still, the Yanks are loaded on the left side, they’ve won four of five and at this price against Chavez they are very worthy of backing.
