NASCAR heads to Michigan Sunday
by Brian Graham
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Quicken Loans 400
Sunday, June 15 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Michigan International Speedway – Brooklyn, MI
The NASCAR circuit takes on a second straight long track on Sunday afternoon at Michigan International Speedway. This 2-mile D-shaped oval track was built in 1968 and remains one of the fastest tracks out there. Banking is 18° for all four turns, with a frontstretch of 3,600 feet (0.68 miles) banked at 12° and a much flatter 5° backstretch measuring 2,242 feet (0.43 miles). Since 2006, there has been only four repeat winners over these 16 races at Michigan, Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, who won last year’s Quicken Loans 400, each have two wins during this stretch.
Odds to Win Race
Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 7-to-1
Kevin Harvick 7-to-1
Joey Logano 8-to-1
Brad Keselowski 8-to-1
Matt Kenseth 10-to-1
Jeff Gordon 10-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-to-1
Tony Stewart 12-to-1
Kasey Kahne 12-to-1
Kyle Busch 12-to-1
Carl Edwards 15-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Denny Hamlin 15-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Clint Bowyer 25-to-1
Kyle Larson 25-to-1
Brian Vickers 30-to-1
Ryan Newman 35-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 60-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 60-to-1
Jamie McMurray 60-to-1
Austin Dillon 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 200-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 200-to-1
Danica Patrick 200-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 300-to-1
Trevor Bayne 300-to-1
Casey Mears 300-to-1
Drivers to Watch
Denny Hamlin (15/1) – Hamlin has been in a slump at Michigan with five straight non-top-10′s at this track, but before this slide, he had ripped off five consecutive top-10′s, including two wins (2010 & 2011), a runner-up and a third-place showing. Hamlin’s average finish of 15.0 at this track ranks eighth-best among active drivers, which is why he carried a much less favorable 10-to-1 price at last spring’s Quicken Loans 400. The No. 11 car has also been racing quite well over the past five starts, climbing from 14th to 8th in the points standings based on a win at Talladega and back-to-back top-5 finishes (5th at Dover, 4th at Pocono). At 15-to-1, Hamlin is clearly the best value on the board, and should be given your largest wager as our pick to win Sunday’s race.
Jimmie Johnson (7/1) – Johnson continued his rapid ascent towards the top of the points standings last week, as his 6th-place showing at Pocono marked his fourth straight top-9 finish. He now has eight top-6′s this season, and has led for multiple laps in 11 of his 14 starts. Johnson has actually never won at Michigan in 24 tries, but he’s come awfully close with nine top-10′s and four top-5′s. And since 2007, Johnson has led for multiple laps in 11-of-14 races at this track. With odds nearly twice as favorable from the 4-to-1 billing he had for both 2013 Michigan races, put down a significant wager on Johnson to end his drought at this track on Sunday.
Greg Biffle (20/1) – Biffle knows how important this race is, as he is looking to stop a slide of four straight finishes outside the top-15. Luckily for the No. 16 car, this is the perfect venue for a slump-buster, as Biffle has the third-best average finish among active drivers at Michigan (11.2). This number is so impressive due to his four victories at this track, including two of his past three starts, and five other 4th-place finishes, the last of which came in 2012. Biffle has led for more than 25 laps in seven consecutive starts at this venue, which is why he had 10-to-1 odds to win at Michigan last fall when he placed ninth. With odds doubling that race on Sunday, Biffle is worthy of a small wager this weekend.
Kasey Kahne (12/1) – He has been wildly inconsistent at this track with nine top-7 finishes, and seven finishes of 28th or worse over his 20 Michigan starts. He has had some bad luck with an engine failure in 2008 and crashes in each of the past two spring races at this venue. But despite starting 31st at the 2013 Pure Michigan 400, Kahne still finished seventh. He has also run into some bad luck recently with a pair of crashes over his past seven races, including last week at Pocono, which sent him out of the top-20 in the points standings. But although Kahne’s odds aren’t extremely favorable on Sunday, the fact that he went off at 7-to-1 in both Michigan races last year makes me think his 12-to-1 price is worthy of laying a one-unit wager on.
Martin Truex Jr. (60/1) – None of the longshots are particularly enticing, but as a value play, it’s tough to beat Truex Jr. whose odds are four times more favorable on Sunday than they were last fall when he was tabbed at 15-to-1. Truex Jr. has a strong 15.7 average finish in his career at Michigan, which ranks 10th-best among active drivers. This has happened because of five top-10′s, three top-5′s and only 4-of-16 finishes outside the top-20. Truex is also turning around a disappointing start to the 2014 season with a 6th-place finish at Dover and a ninth-place showing last week at Pocono. With such lofty odds, Truex could pay huge dividends on Sunday.
by Brian Graham
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Quicken Loans 400
Sunday, June 15 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Michigan International Speedway – Brooklyn, MI
The NASCAR circuit takes on a second straight long track on Sunday afternoon at Michigan International Speedway. This 2-mile D-shaped oval track was built in 1968 and remains one of the fastest tracks out there. Banking is 18° for all four turns, with a frontstretch of 3,600 feet (0.68 miles) banked at 12° and a much flatter 5° backstretch measuring 2,242 feet (0.43 miles). Since 2006, there has been only four repeat winners over these 16 races at Michigan, Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, who won last year’s Quicken Loans 400, each have two wins during this stretch.
Odds to Win Race
Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 7-to-1
Kevin Harvick 7-to-1
Joey Logano 8-to-1
Brad Keselowski 8-to-1
Matt Kenseth 10-to-1
Jeff Gordon 10-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-to-1
Tony Stewart 12-to-1
Kasey Kahne 12-to-1
Kyle Busch 12-to-1
Carl Edwards 15-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Denny Hamlin 15-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Clint Bowyer 25-to-1
Kyle Larson 25-to-1
Brian Vickers 30-to-1
Ryan Newman 35-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 60-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 60-to-1
Jamie McMurray 60-to-1
Austin Dillon 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 200-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 200-to-1
Danica Patrick 200-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 300-to-1
Trevor Bayne 300-to-1
Casey Mears 300-to-1
Drivers to Watch
Denny Hamlin (15/1) – Hamlin has been in a slump at Michigan with five straight non-top-10′s at this track, but before this slide, he had ripped off five consecutive top-10′s, including two wins (2010 & 2011), a runner-up and a third-place showing. Hamlin’s average finish of 15.0 at this track ranks eighth-best among active drivers, which is why he carried a much less favorable 10-to-1 price at last spring’s Quicken Loans 400. The No. 11 car has also been racing quite well over the past five starts, climbing from 14th to 8th in the points standings based on a win at Talladega and back-to-back top-5 finishes (5th at Dover, 4th at Pocono). At 15-to-1, Hamlin is clearly the best value on the board, and should be given your largest wager as our pick to win Sunday’s race.
Jimmie Johnson (7/1) – Johnson continued his rapid ascent towards the top of the points standings last week, as his 6th-place showing at Pocono marked his fourth straight top-9 finish. He now has eight top-6′s this season, and has led for multiple laps in 11 of his 14 starts. Johnson has actually never won at Michigan in 24 tries, but he’s come awfully close with nine top-10′s and four top-5′s. And since 2007, Johnson has led for multiple laps in 11-of-14 races at this track. With odds nearly twice as favorable from the 4-to-1 billing he had for both 2013 Michigan races, put down a significant wager on Johnson to end his drought at this track on Sunday.
Greg Biffle (20/1) – Biffle knows how important this race is, as he is looking to stop a slide of four straight finishes outside the top-15. Luckily for the No. 16 car, this is the perfect venue for a slump-buster, as Biffle has the third-best average finish among active drivers at Michigan (11.2). This number is so impressive due to his four victories at this track, including two of his past three starts, and five other 4th-place finishes, the last of which came in 2012. Biffle has led for more than 25 laps in seven consecutive starts at this venue, which is why he had 10-to-1 odds to win at Michigan last fall when he placed ninth. With odds doubling that race on Sunday, Biffle is worthy of a small wager this weekend.
Kasey Kahne (12/1) – He has been wildly inconsistent at this track with nine top-7 finishes, and seven finishes of 28th or worse over his 20 Michigan starts. He has had some bad luck with an engine failure in 2008 and crashes in each of the past two spring races at this venue. But despite starting 31st at the 2013 Pure Michigan 400, Kahne still finished seventh. He has also run into some bad luck recently with a pair of crashes over his past seven races, including last week at Pocono, which sent him out of the top-20 in the points standings. But although Kahne’s odds aren’t extremely favorable on Sunday, the fact that he went off at 7-to-1 in both Michigan races last year makes me think his 12-to-1 price is worthy of laying a one-unit wager on.
Martin Truex Jr. (60/1) – None of the longshots are particularly enticing, but as a value play, it’s tough to beat Truex Jr. whose odds are four times more favorable on Sunday than they were last fall when he was tabbed at 15-to-1. Truex Jr. has a strong 15.7 average finish in his career at Michigan, which ranks 10th-best among active drivers. This has happened because of five top-10′s, three top-5′s and only 4-of-16 finishes outside the top-20. Truex is also turning around a disappointing start to the 2014 season with a 6th-place finish at Dover and a ninth-place showing last week at Pocono. With such lofty odds, Truex could pay huge dividends on Sunday.
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, JUNE 15TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 6/15/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #11
•Nationals Flawless Streak With Fister On The Mound: Doug Fister has been quietly going about a fantastic year for the Washington Nationals. In Fister's first start he got shellacked for five runs in 4.1 innings, but has since been stellar. In the right-hander's six starts since, he is 5-0 with one no decision. Through six games, Fister has allowed only eight runs and has only walked three batters. In not one start has any team registered more than two runs against the hurler. The Nationals, who are 6-0 in Fister's last six starts, travel to St. Louis Sunday.
•Marlins Send An Incredibly Hot Alvarez To The Mound: After a poor start to his season, Henderson Alvarez has been money for the Miami Marlins. After the Marlins went 1-4 in Alvarez's first five starts, the team has now won seven of his past eight. In the right-hander's last eight starts he has allowed only 16 runs and on four occasions did not have a single run earned against him. Alvarez also has an astonishing 32/7 strikeout/bases on balls ratio. The Marlins will look to stay hot when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.
•Porcello Facing The Twins Has Paid Out For Bettors: It may come out to one of those sports-betting oddities, but when Rick Porcello takes to the mound against the Minnesota Twins bettors can expect a high-scoring affair. In the last five games against the Twins, the Detroit Tigers starter has never allowed less than six hits against and has given up an average of four runs per game. These solid, yet unspectacular numbers, do not tell the whole story though as in those five games the over play has paid out four times. During those five contest, spanning this season and last, the Tigers and Twins have averaged 10.4 runs per game.
•Hahn Gives Padres 6 Innings And A Win: Jesse Hahn pitched six innings for the first time as a professional Saturday, when he also earned his first major league victory. Hahn was very nearly part of a much bigger first that has eluded hundreds of San Diego Padres pitchers. He allowed only one hit over six innings and combined with three relievers on a two-hitter as the Padres beat the New York Mets, 5-0, at Citi Field. Recalled from Double-A San Antonio before the game, Hahn made his second big league start two hours west of his hometown of Groton, Connecticut, walking three and striking out seven. To make room for Hahn, the Padres placed LHP Troy Patton on the 15-day disabled list because of left shoulder soreness. Patton pitched in three of the Padres' previous four games.
•Harper To Resume Baseball Activities: Injured Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is set to resume baseball activities early next week, according to the Washington Post. Harper has been out with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb since April 26. Harper is scheduled to take light swings and play catch next week. It is not known when Harper will take batting practice and there is no timetable on his return to the lineup. Initially, he was expected to miss six to eight weeks after having surgery. Earlier this month, manager Matt Williams said Harper could return during the first week of July. The 21-year-old is batting .289 with one home run and nine RBIs in 22 games this season.
•Rollins Climbs To Top Of Phillies' Hit List: Shortstop Jimmy Rollins always said he wouldn't consider leaving Philadelphia because he had unfinished business: franchise records. On a sunny, 78-degree Saturday at Citizens Bank Park, Rollins accomplished one of his goals, passing Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt as the Phillies' all-time hits leader with No. 2,235. Rollins lined a single to right field in the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs to set the record. As he rounded first base, Rollins pointed to the sky before receiving a standing ovation. The Phillies came pouring out of the dugout to congratulate their teammate, and Schmidt, on hand for the moment, hugged Rollins and lifted his arm in the air.
The 35-year-old Rollins, in his 15th big-league season -- all with the Phillies -- is the club's all-time leader in hits, doubles (466), games played at shortstop (1,986), in addition to ranking second in extra-base hits, total bases, games (2,015). He is third in stolen bases, runs, triples, fifth in RBIs and ninth in home runs. Schmidt, a three-time MVP who played his entire career (1972-89) with Philadelphia, hit 548 home runs (14th all-time) and won 10 Gold Gloves. The Phillies are the oldest, continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in professional sports.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Miami won last five Alvarez starts (1-0, 0.68 last four).
-- Kennedy is 3-1, 3.24 in his last four starts. Matsuzaka is 2-0, 3.86 in three starts for the Mets.
-- Cubs won five of last six Wood starts, scoring 43 runs.
-- Fister is 5-0, 1.95 in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.24 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 4-2, 2.17 in his last six starts. Arroyo is 5-2, 2.91 in his last eight.
-- Nolasco is 2-0, 4.34 in his last three starts.
-- Workman is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts.
-- Peacock is 2-0, 2.66 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is 1-1, 1.85 in his last couple starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Worley is making his first '14 start; he is 19-18, 4.05 in 56 career big league starts- he was 3-2, 4.30 in seven AAA starts this year.
-- Leake is 1-3, 6.45 in his last four starts. Estrada is 2-2, 6.68 in his last five.
-- Burnett is 1-2, 6.92 in his last four starts.
-- Cardinals are 0-3 in Garcia home starts (0-0, 6.16).
-- Nicasio is 0-3, 14.49 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman is 1-1, 9.30 in his last five starts. Happ is 1-2, 6.50 in his last three.
-- Kluber is 0-1, 7.94 in his last two starts.
-- Porcello is 1-3, 7.43 in his last four starts.
-- Sheilds has a 6.66 RA in his last four starts, but Royals won his last seven starts, scoring 48 runs. Rienzo is 0-3, 11.25 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 0-3, 5.20 in his last five starts.
-- Nuno is 0-2, 5.40 in his last six starts. Chavez is 1-3, 5.40 in his last four.
-- Martinez is 0-2, 12.46 in his last three starts.
-- Santiago is 0-4, 5.55 in his last five starts. Minor is 0-2, 4.81 in his last four.
•Totals
-- Six of last nine Cub games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Pittsburgh games went over total.
-- Eight of last eleven games at Citi Field stayed under.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cincinnati games. Over is 8-1-1 in last ten games at Miller Park.
-- Seven of last eight Cardinal games stayed under.
-- 10 of last 15 Arizona road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Colorado road games went over.
-- Last six Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Detroit games.
-- Seven of last eight games at Fenway Park stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eleven White Sox home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Yankees games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Seattle home games stayed total.
-- Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Atlanta games.
•Hot Teams
-- Phillies won four of their last five games.
-- Pirates won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won five of its last seven games. Cincinnati won five of their last seven road games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
-- Rockies won its last four games, last two in ninth inning.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Royals won its last six games.
-- Twins won three of its last four games.
-- Astros won five of their last seven home games.
-- Athletics won four of their last five home games. New York won nine of its last thirteen road games.
-- Rangers won their last three games.
•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last ten games. San Diego lost nine of last 12.
-- Nationals lost their last three games.
-- Diamondbacks lost five of its last six games.
-- Giants lost five of its last six games.
-- Blue Jays lost six of its last eight games. Baltimore is 8-9 in last 17 at home.
-- Tigers are 6-10 in its last sixteen home games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last eight games.
-- Indians lost four of their last five games.
-- Rays lost 15 of its last 18 games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Braves lost five of its last six home games. Los Angeles lost eight of their last e12 road games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Phil-- Road team won last eight Cederstrom games; last three went under the total.
-- Col-SF-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Muchlinski games.
-- Pitt-Mia-- Home side won eight of last ten TWelke games.
-- SD-NY-- Six of seven Woodring games went over total.
-- Wsh-StL-- Last ten Porter games stayed under the total.
-- Cin-Mil-- Under is 10-2-1 in Eddings games this season.
-- Az-LA-- Ten of last thirteen Davidson games stayed under.
-- KC-Chi-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Emmel games.
-- Cle-Bos-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Guccione games.
-- Tor-Balt-- Four of last five Wendelstedt games stayed under.
-- Min-Det-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Buckminster games.
-- TB-Hst-- Six of nine Pattillo games stayed under the total.
-- NY-A's-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Scott games.
-- Tex-Sea-- Underdogs won last five Cuzzi games.
-- LAA-Atl-- All four Campos games went over the total.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•ATLANTA is 13-0 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.0.
•PITTSBURGH is 24-6 OVER (+17.5 Units) in road games after a win by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.9, OPPONENT 5.0.
•CLEVELAND is 4-18 (-21.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.2, OPPONENT 6.4.
•JAMES SHIELDS is 13-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SHIELDS 5.7, OPPONENT 1.7.
•COREY KLUBER is 8-0 OVER (+8.1 Units) in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KLUBER 7.7, OPPONENT 5.0.
•CHRIS TILLMAN is 19-5 (+16.3 Units) against the run line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TILLMAN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.4.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - poor American League offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after a loss by 4 runs or more, with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season.
(36-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.0%, +33.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +132.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2, +11.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +15.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (74-74, +21.9 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(63-21 since 1997.) (75.0%, +45.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 53 (63.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0, +6.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7, +16.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-12, +24.5 units).
•Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7.5 to 8 (SEATTLE) - team with a terrible on base percentage (<=.310) against a terrible starting pitcher (WHIP>=1.700) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL).
(32-8 since 1997.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.4, Money Line=-110
The average score in these games was: Team 3.5, Opponent 3.8 (Total runs scored = 7.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 26 (72.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, 0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5, +10.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8, +13.2 units).
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SUNDAY, JUNE 15TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** Sunday, 6/15/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #11
•Nationals Flawless Streak With Fister On The Mound: Doug Fister has been quietly going about a fantastic year for the Washington Nationals. In Fister's first start he got shellacked for five runs in 4.1 innings, but has since been stellar. In the right-hander's six starts since, he is 5-0 with one no decision. Through six games, Fister has allowed only eight runs and has only walked three batters. In not one start has any team registered more than two runs against the hurler. The Nationals, who are 6-0 in Fister's last six starts, travel to St. Louis Sunday.
•Marlins Send An Incredibly Hot Alvarez To The Mound: After a poor start to his season, Henderson Alvarez has been money for the Miami Marlins. After the Marlins went 1-4 in Alvarez's first five starts, the team has now won seven of his past eight. In the right-hander's last eight starts he has allowed only 16 runs and on four occasions did not have a single run earned against him. Alvarez also has an astonishing 32/7 strikeout/bases on balls ratio. The Marlins will look to stay hot when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.
•Porcello Facing The Twins Has Paid Out For Bettors: It may come out to one of those sports-betting oddities, but when Rick Porcello takes to the mound against the Minnesota Twins bettors can expect a high-scoring affair. In the last five games against the Twins, the Detroit Tigers starter has never allowed less than six hits against and has given up an average of four runs per game. These solid, yet unspectacular numbers, do not tell the whole story though as in those five games the over play has paid out four times. During those five contest, spanning this season and last, the Tigers and Twins have averaged 10.4 runs per game.
•Hahn Gives Padres 6 Innings And A Win: Jesse Hahn pitched six innings for the first time as a professional Saturday, when he also earned his first major league victory. Hahn was very nearly part of a much bigger first that has eluded hundreds of San Diego Padres pitchers. He allowed only one hit over six innings and combined with three relievers on a two-hitter as the Padres beat the New York Mets, 5-0, at Citi Field. Recalled from Double-A San Antonio before the game, Hahn made his second big league start two hours west of his hometown of Groton, Connecticut, walking three and striking out seven. To make room for Hahn, the Padres placed LHP Troy Patton on the 15-day disabled list because of left shoulder soreness. Patton pitched in three of the Padres' previous four games.
•Harper To Resume Baseball Activities: Injured Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is set to resume baseball activities early next week, according to the Washington Post. Harper has been out with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb since April 26. Harper is scheduled to take light swings and play catch next week. It is not known when Harper will take batting practice and there is no timetable on his return to the lineup. Initially, he was expected to miss six to eight weeks after having surgery. Earlier this month, manager Matt Williams said Harper could return during the first week of July. The 21-year-old is batting .289 with one home run and nine RBIs in 22 games this season.
•Rollins Climbs To Top Of Phillies' Hit List: Shortstop Jimmy Rollins always said he wouldn't consider leaving Philadelphia because he had unfinished business: franchise records. On a sunny, 78-degree Saturday at Citizens Bank Park, Rollins accomplished one of his goals, passing Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt as the Phillies' all-time hits leader with No. 2,235. Rollins lined a single to right field in the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs to set the record. As he rounded first base, Rollins pointed to the sky before receiving a standing ovation. The Phillies came pouring out of the dugout to congratulate their teammate, and Schmidt, on hand for the moment, hugged Rollins and lifted his arm in the air.
The 35-year-old Rollins, in his 15th big-league season -- all with the Phillies -- is the club's all-time leader in hits, doubles (466), games played at shortstop (1,986), in addition to ranking second in extra-base hits, total bases, games (2,015). He is third in stolen bases, runs, triples, fifth in RBIs and ninth in home runs. Schmidt, a three-time MVP who played his entire career (1972-89) with Philadelphia, hit 548 home runs (14th all-time) and won 10 Gold Gloves. The Phillies are the oldest, continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in professional sports.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Miami won last five Alvarez starts (1-0, 0.68 last four).
-- Kennedy is 3-1, 3.24 in his last four starts. Matsuzaka is 2-0, 3.86 in three starts for the Mets.
-- Cubs won five of last six Wood starts, scoring 43 runs.
-- Fister is 5-0, 1.95 in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.24 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 4-2, 2.17 in his last six starts. Arroyo is 5-2, 2.91 in his last eight.
-- Nolasco is 2-0, 4.34 in his last three starts.
-- Workman is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts.
-- Peacock is 2-0, 2.66 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is 1-1, 1.85 in his last couple starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Worley is making his first '14 start; he is 19-18, 4.05 in 56 career big league starts- he was 3-2, 4.30 in seven AAA starts this year.
-- Leake is 1-3, 6.45 in his last four starts. Estrada is 2-2, 6.68 in his last five.
-- Burnett is 1-2, 6.92 in his last four starts.
-- Cardinals are 0-3 in Garcia home starts (0-0, 6.16).
-- Nicasio is 0-3, 14.49 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman is 1-1, 9.30 in his last five starts. Happ is 1-2, 6.50 in his last three.
-- Kluber is 0-1, 7.94 in his last two starts.
-- Porcello is 1-3, 7.43 in his last four starts.
-- Sheilds has a 6.66 RA in his last four starts, but Royals won his last seven starts, scoring 48 runs. Rienzo is 0-3, 11.25 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 0-3, 5.20 in his last five starts.
-- Nuno is 0-2, 5.40 in his last six starts. Chavez is 1-3, 5.40 in his last four.
-- Martinez is 0-2, 12.46 in his last three starts.
-- Santiago is 0-4, 5.55 in his last five starts. Minor is 0-2, 4.81 in his last four.
•Totals
-- Six of last nine Cub games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Pittsburgh games went over total.
-- Eight of last eleven games at Citi Field stayed under.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cincinnati games. Over is 8-1-1 in last ten games at Miller Park.
-- Seven of last eight Cardinal games stayed under.
-- 10 of last 15 Arizona road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Colorado road games went over.
-- Last six Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Detroit games.
-- Seven of last eight games at Fenway Park stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eleven White Sox home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Yankees games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Seattle home games stayed total.
-- Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Atlanta games.
•Hot Teams
-- Phillies won four of their last five games.
-- Pirates won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won five of its last seven games. Cincinnati won five of their last seven road games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
-- Rockies won its last four games, last two in ninth inning.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Royals won its last six games.
-- Twins won three of its last four games.
-- Astros won five of their last seven home games.
-- Athletics won four of their last five home games. New York won nine of its last thirteen road games.
-- Rangers won their last three games.
•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last ten games. San Diego lost nine of last 12.
-- Nationals lost their last three games.
-- Diamondbacks lost five of its last six games.
-- Giants lost five of its last six games.
-- Blue Jays lost six of its last eight games. Baltimore is 8-9 in last 17 at home.
-- Tigers are 6-10 in its last sixteen home games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last eight games.
-- Indians lost four of their last five games.
-- Rays lost 15 of its last 18 games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Braves lost five of its last six home games. Los Angeles lost eight of their last e12 road games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Phil-- Road team won last eight Cederstrom games; last three went under the total.
-- Col-SF-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Muchlinski games.
-- Pitt-Mia-- Home side won eight of last ten TWelke games.
-- SD-NY-- Six of seven Woodring games went over total.
-- Wsh-StL-- Last ten Porter games stayed under the total.
-- Cin-Mil-- Under is 10-2-1 in Eddings games this season.
-- Az-LA-- Ten of last thirteen Davidson games stayed under.
-- KC-Chi-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Emmel games.
-- Cle-Bos-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Guccione games.
-- Tor-Balt-- Four of last five Wendelstedt games stayed under.
-- Min-Det-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Buckminster games.
-- TB-Hst-- Six of nine Pattillo games stayed under the total.
-- NY-A's-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Scott games.
-- Tex-Sea-- Underdogs won last five Cuzzi games.
-- LAA-Atl-- All four Campos games went over the total.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•ATLANTA is 13-0 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.0.
•PITTSBURGH is 24-6 OVER (+17.5 Units) in road games after a win by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.9, OPPONENT 5.0.
•CLEVELAND is 4-18 (-21.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.2, OPPONENT 6.4.
•JAMES SHIELDS is 13-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SHIELDS 5.7, OPPONENT 1.7.
•COREY KLUBER is 8-0 OVER (+8.1 Units) in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KLUBER 7.7, OPPONENT 5.0.
•CHRIS TILLMAN is 19-5 (+16.3 Units) against the run line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TILLMAN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.4.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - poor American League offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after a loss by 4 runs or more, with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season.
(36-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.0%, +33.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +132.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2, +11.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +15.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (74-74, +21.9 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(63-21 since 1997.) (75.0%, +45.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 53 (63.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0, +6.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7, +16.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-12, +24.5 units).
•Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7.5 to 8 (SEATTLE) - team with a terrible on base percentage (<=.310) against a terrible starting pitcher (WHIP>=1.700) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL).
(32-8 since 1997.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.4, Money Line=-110
The average score in these games was: Team 3.5, Opponent 3.8 (Total runs scored = 7.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 26 (72.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, 0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5, +10.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8, +13.2 units).
___________________________________________
SPORTS WAGERS
Switzerland +159 over Ecuador
For unfathomable reasons the Swiss are only a slim favorite against an Ecuador team that they are clearly superior to. The price being offered is a silver lining. Without question, this is a fortuitous happenstance for gamblers and Swiss supporters alike. The speculation is admirable but mistaken. The Swiss enter the FIFA World Cup as the sixth ranked team in the world and rightfully so. Switzerland was sparkling in winning group E of UEFA qualification en route to their third consecutive World Cup. The Swiss went undefeated, as they won seven of 10 contests while drawing three. The Swiss have not lost a fixture in years. Its last noteworthy result was a draw against 11th ranked Croatia in an international friendly.
Still, Ecuador hauntingly is viewed as a potential upset artist with the Swiss. Perhaps, oddsmakers fear that Switzerland will make any early exit from the World Cup as they did in 2010. However, that type of prophesizing is unwarranted and unnecessary. Switzerland will dominate this group and exit as the Group Winner ascending to the knockout round. Ecuador cannot be taken lightly and we can’t imagine for a second that the Swiss will take anyone lightly after being eliminated early in this event in 2010. Invest.
Honduras +1032 over France
France and Honduras have never met before on any pitch. This is the inaugural collision between the European dynasty and their up and coming South American counterparts. Astonishingly, betting on Honduras can net any taker a handsome bounty if they dare offer at the massive take-back.
Comparing the FIFA Rankings, France is slotted at number 17 overall. Honduras is ranked 33rd. This by no means implies that France is twice as good as Honduras or does this cast a shadow of impunity in Honduras’ qualification. The presumption is that France will win the match because they are a perennial European power, however not so long ago, the expectation of French superiority greatly diminished. Teams like Belgium and Greece usurped the French in the rankings and were suddenly held in higher distinction. With these notions considered, Greece and Belgium on average are lesser of a favorite against less quality opponents overall. Honduras should by no means be a heavy underdog, as their body of work en route to the World Cup was exquisite.
The Hondurans pummeled fellow qualifier Costa Rica, they defeated America in the aggregate and they were a problem for Mexico. None of the three teams could come up with a win against Honduras. In fact, Honduras outscored these opponents 5-3. America is a 13th ranked football club, Mexico is ranked 19th respectively. Without question, Honduras can compete against top twenty opponents and France is no different. On a neutral pitch, Honduras is very capable of pulling off an upset. With a better than 10-1 incentive to the bold souls willing to place the bet, a victory by Honduras could be a sweet return on an enticing investment. Choosing Honduras with these odds may very well turn out to be the steal of the first week of the FIFA World Cup. Huge overlay.
Switzerland +159 over Ecuador
For unfathomable reasons the Swiss are only a slim favorite against an Ecuador team that they are clearly superior to. The price being offered is a silver lining. Without question, this is a fortuitous happenstance for gamblers and Swiss supporters alike. The speculation is admirable but mistaken. The Swiss enter the FIFA World Cup as the sixth ranked team in the world and rightfully so. Switzerland was sparkling in winning group E of UEFA qualification en route to their third consecutive World Cup. The Swiss went undefeated, as they won seven of 10 contests while drawing three. The Swiss have not lost a fixture in years. Its last noteworthy result was a draw against 11th ranked Croatia in an international friendly.
Still, Ecuador hauntingly is viewed as a potential upset artist with the Swiss. Perhaps, oddsmakers fear that Switzerland will make any early exit from the World Cup as they did in 2010. However, that type of prophesizing is unwarranted and unnecessary. Switzerland will dominate this group and exit as the Group Winner ascending to the knockout round. Ecuador cannot be taken lightly and we can’t imagine for a second that the Swiss will take anyone lightly after being eliminated early in this event in 2010. Invest.
Honduras +1032 over France
France and Honduras have never met before on any pitch. This is the inaugural collision between the European dynasty and their up and coming South American counterparts. Astonishingly, betting on Honduras can net any taker a handsome bounty if they dare offer at the massive take-back.
Comparing the FIFA Rankings, France is slotted at number 17 overall. Honduras is ranked 33rd. This by no means implies that France is twice as good as Honduras or does this cast a shadow of impunity in Honduras’ qualification. The presumption is that France will win the match because they are a perennial European power, however not so long ago, the expectation of French superiority greatly diminished. Teams like Belgium and Greece usurped the French in the rankings and were suddenly held in higher distinction. With these notions considered, Greece and Belgium on average are lesser of a favorite against less quality opponents overall. Honduras should by no means be a heavy underdog, as their body of work en route to the World Cup was exquisite.
The Hondurans pummeled fellow qualifier Costa Rica, they defeated America in the aggregate and they were a problem for Mexico. None of the three teams could come up with a win against Honduras. In fact, Honduras outscored these opponents 5-3. America is a 13th ranked football club, Mexico is ranked 19th respectively. Without question, Honduras can compete against top twenty opponents and France is no different. On a neutral pitch, Honduras is very capable of pulling off an upset. With a better than 10-1 incentive to the bold souls willing to place the bet, a victory by Honduras could be a sweet return on an enticing investment. Choosing Honduras with these odds may very well turn out to be the steal of the first week of the FIFA World Cup. Huge overlay.
StatFox Super Situations
WNBA | ATLANTA at WASHINGTON
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 after scoring 75 points or more against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game 67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
WNBA | ATLANTA at WASHINGTON
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) off an home win scoring 85 or more points, with a winning record on the season 45-22 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 0.0 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | SEATTLE at TULSA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off an upset win as an underdog 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
WNBA | ATLANTA at WASHINGTON
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 after scoring 75 points or more against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game 67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
WNBA | ATLANTA at WASHINGTON
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) off an home win scoring 85 or more points, with a winning record on the season 45-22 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 0.0 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | SEATTLE at TULSA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off an upset win as an underdog 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets
MLB | KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX
Play On – Road teams (KANSAS CITY) with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less 3 straight games
31-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.9% | 22.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.8 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | NY YANKEES at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 85-38 (+42.3 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.5)
MLB | KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX
Play On – Road teams (KANSAS CITY) with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less 3 straight games
31-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.9% | 22.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.8 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | NY YANKEES at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 85-38 (+42.3 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.5)
wc2014tips
League :World Cup
Switzerland - Ecuador
Tips : Switzerland 0
bernardtips
League WORLD: World Cup
Argentina - Bosnia & Herzegovina
TIPS : Over 2.5
getmybet
League: WORLD: World Cup
Argentina - Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tips : Over 2.5
mysecretbets
League: NORWAY: Division 1
Ranheim - Alta
Tips: Over 2.5
goforwinners
League : NORWAY: Division 1
Bryne - Nest-Sotra
Tips : Over 3.0
myperfectbets
League : NORWAY: Division 1
Tromsdalen - Baerum
Tips : Over 3.0
totalwintips
League : NORWAY: Division 1
Bryne - NestSotra
Tips : Over 3
League :World Cup
Switzerland - Ecuador
Tips : Switzerland 0
bernardtips
League WORLD: World Cup
Argentina - Bosnia & Herzegovina
TIPS : Over 2.5
getmybet
League: WORLD: World Cup
Argentina - Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tips : Over 2.5
mysecretbets
League: NORWAY: Division 1
Ranheim - Alta
Tips: Over 2.5
goforwinners
League : NORWAY: Division 1
Bryne - Nest-Sotra
Tips : Over 3.0
myperfectbets
League : NORWAY: Division 1
Tromsdalen - Baerum
Tips : Over 3.0
totalwintips
League : NORWAY: Division 1
Bryne - NestSotra
Tips : Over 3
CHASE DIAMOND
15* MLB HOME COOKING
NY Yankees vs. Oakland
Money Line: -175 Oakland A’s
This game features the 35-32 Yankees at the 41-27 Oakland. We backed Yankees yesterday and that was the wrong side today even at this high juice price we are getting good value. Let’s face it Vidal Nuno is no Major League pitcher and his numbers prove that. Jesse Chavez has been solid going 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA. Oakland won yesterday expect them to carry that over to a easy winner today public is backing Oakland and so will we for a 15* winner take Oakland.
15* MLB HOME COOKING
NY Yankees vs. Oakland
Money Line: -175 Oakland A’s
This game features the 35-32 Yankees at the 41-27 Oakland. We backed Yankees yesterday and that was the wrong side today even at this high juice price we are getting good value. Let’s face it Vidal Nuno is no Major League pitcher and his numbers prove that. Jesse Chavez has been solid going 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA. Oakland won yesterday expect them to carry that over to a easy winner today public is backing Oakland and so will we for a 15* winner take Oakland.
