Shaker’s Shorts
NASCAR at Dover
NASCAR at Dover Play #1: Top 10 Finish Clint Bowyer +115. At Your Book this might be displayed as O/U 10.5. Match-ups coming..
NASCAR at Dover Play #2: Greg Biffle -115 verses Ryan Newman..
NASCAR at Dover Play #3: Kyle Busch -110 verses Brad Keselowski..
Let’s add this one and be done. NASCAR at Dover Play #4: Jeff Gordon -125 verses Kasey Kahne
NASCAR at Dover
NASCAR at Dover Play #1: Top 10 Finish Clint Bowyer +115. At Your Book this might be displayed as O/U 10.5. Match-ups coming..
NASCAR at Dover Play #2: Greg Biffle -115 verses Ryan Newman..
NASCAR at Dover Play #3: Kyle Busch -110 verses Brad Keselowski..
Let’s add this one and be done. NASCAR at Dover Play #4: Jeff Gordon -125 verses Kasey Kahne
SPORTS WAGERS
MLB
Baltimore/HOUSTON Over 8½
Last season Scott Feldman shaved more than a run off his 2012 ERA even as his walk and strikeout rates both went in the wrong direction. This year his walks are down but so too are his strikeouts in a big way. Feldman has 22 K’s in 48 innings, meaning he’s striking out roughly one batter every four innings. In Feldman’s last start at pitcher-friendly Kansas City, he went six full and did not strike out a single batter. Feldman has allowed 27 hits over his last three starts covering just 15 innings. His 3.02 ERA is not close to being supported by his skills. Feldman’s 1.71 WHIP over his last four starts does not coincide with an ERA just above three. Feldman does keep ball on ground... except when it flies out of park and with his tiny margin for error he could use a home that suppresses HR. Unfortunately for him, Minute Maid is not the place. If there was ever a pitcher in line for a serious ERA regression, Scott Feldman is it.
The Orioles have lost Wei-Yin Chen’s last two games by scores of 8-7 and 7-6. Chen allowed five runs in both games and surrendered four jacks combined. After 10 starts, Chen has a WHIP of 1.41 and a BAA of .306. He’s been unable to keep runners off base the entire season and this is a park that is unforgiving to pitchers with a high line-drive rate and that applies here. Chen’s line-drive rate over his last three starts is a troubling 38% and that’s the highest in the majors over a three-start stretch. The Astros .277 batting average over the last seven games is 5th best in the major leagues and they figure to at least get three or four here. The first three games of this series have all gone under the total, which has created a lower number today. We’ll look to take advantage of what we trust is a very beatable total here.
Kansas City +160 over TORONTO
Mark Buehrle leads the majors in wins with nine and those victories are supported by his 2.33 ERA. However, Buehrle’s numbers are not supported by his skills and we can guarantee you 100% that Buehrle will not be able to maintain that low ERA all year. Buehrle’s been greatly aided by an 81% strand rate. His 1.23 WHIP is actually higher than the league average, meaning he’s allowing more base-runners than more than half the starters in this league. He has just 43 K’s in 73 innings and his swing and miss rate is also pedestrian at just 6%. This matchup does not favor Buerhle either, as the Royals have struck out the least amount of times in MLB so Buehrle will need a whole lot of good fortune to escape the inevitable jams he’ll be in here. Buehrle’s xERA of 4.13 says some rough starts are forthcoming and the possibility of that happening here looks high.
Jeremy Guthrie is 0-2 over his last three starts but his ERA of 2.57 over that span says he deserved better. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and say that Guthrie is a better option than Buehrle because Guthrie’s chance of blowing up is probably greater than Buehrle’s. However, for whatever reason, Guthrie has had huge success at this venue over the past three years with a .194 BAA and a 0.47 ERA over three starts covering 19 innings. That may or may not hold up but Kansas City has outstanding relief and we’re betting that Buehrle gets tagged for some hits and runs. Remember, always buy low and sell high. Mark Buehrle’s stock is soaring right now, making us sellers in this market. This line is around +140 at most places but we found a +160 at SIA, so get in on that big overlay sooner rather than later.
OAKLAND -1 +106 over L.A. Angels
Before his first start of the year, we noted that Sonny Gray had 3.00 ERA upside. In his first 10 starts, Gray has made that projection seem conservative—he’s 5-1 with an ERA of to 2.31. Gray’s hit % and strand % say that his ERA will rise slightly but xERA shows that his skills remain as strong as in his rookie year. Gray boosted his K rate when he was in AAA in 2013 and he’s maintained that level in the majors. He also keeps the ball on the ground. Half of his games are in pitching-friendly O.co Coliseum but with so few fly balls, it doesn’t make much of a difference. Gray continues to dominate right-hand hitters. At 24 and coming off his first exposure to major league hitting, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see Gray occasionally struggle this year but that’s not been the case. With his 67%/0% dominant start/disaster start split, he’s avoided the disasters and frequently been dominant. This kid can pitch.
Once again, we’re going to fade Jared Weaver because no matter what people think, say or read, the numbers for Weaver just do not add up to his 2.99 ERA. Weaver’s groundball/fly-ball split is 36%/49%. That suggests balls will start leaving the yard more frequently. Weaver’s 83% strand rate is high and it’s unsustainable, as it’s roughly 8% higher than the league average. His 55 K’s in 72 innings is slightly above average but not by much. What has made Weaver so effective over the years is a lot of good fortune and the ability to change speeds. Truth be told, Weaver’s skills match guys like Jeremy Guthrie, Doug Fister and Phil Hughes. In summarizing, Weaver is not a high strikeout guy, he doesn’t have a groundball pitch, he’s posted a near-50% fly-ball rate in four of the past five seasons and his velocity is in the fifth straight year of decline. By the end of the year, Weaver’s ERA will be closer to 4 than 3 and we’ll be in line to profit when things start going south.
Pass NHL
MLB
Baltimore/HOUSTON Over 8½
Last season Scott Feldman shaved more than a run off his 2012 ERA even as his walk and strikeout rates both went in the wrong direction. This year his walks are down but so too are his strikeouts in a big way. Feldman has 22 K’s in 48 innings, meaning he’s striking out roughly one batter every four innings. In Feldman’s last start at pitcher-friendly Kansas City, he went six full and did not strike out a single batter. Feldman has allowed 27 hits over his last three starts covering just 15 innings. His 3.02 ERA is not close to being supported by his skills. Feldman’s 1.71 WHIP over his last four starts does not coincide with an ERA just above three. Feldman does keep ball on ground... except when it flies out of park and with his tiny margin for error he could use a home that suppresses HR. Unfortunately for him, Minute Maid is not the place. If there was ever a pitcher in line for a serious ERA regression, Scott Feldman is it.
The Orioles have lost Wei-Yin Chen’s last two games by scores of 8-7 and 7-6. Chen allowed five runs in both games and surrendered four jacks combined. After 10 starts, Chen has a WHIP of 1.41 and a BAA of .306. He’s been unable to keep runners off base the entire season and this is a park that is unforgiving to pitchers with a high line-drive rate and that applies here. Chen’s line-drive rate over his last three starts is a troubling 38% and that’s the highest in the majors over a three-start stretch. The Astros .277 batting average over the last seven games is 5th best in the major leagues and they figure to at least get three or four here. The first three games of this series have all gone under the total, which has created a lower number today. We’ll look to take advantage of what we trust is a very beatable total here.
Kansas City +160 over TORONTO
Mark Buehrle leads the majors in wins with nine and those victories are supported by his 2.33 ERA. However, Buehrle’s numbers are not supported by his skills and we can guarantee you 100% that Buehrle will not be able to maintain that low ERA all year. Buehrle’s been greatly aided by an 81% strand rate. His 1.23 WHIP is actually higher than the league average, meaning he’s allowing more base-runners than more than half the starters in this league. He has just 43 K’s in 73 innings and his swing and miss rate is also pedestrian at just 6%. This matchup does not favor Buerhle either, as the Royals have struck out the least amount of times in MLB so Buehrle will need a whole lot of good fortune to escape the inevitable jams he’ll be in here. Buehrle’s xERA of 4.13 says some rough starts are forthcoming and the possibility of that happening here looks high.
Jeremy Guthrie is 0-2 over his last three starts but his ERA of 2.57 over that span says he deserved better. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and say that Guthrie is a better option than Buehrle because Guthrie’s chance of blowing up is probably greater than Buehrle’s. However, for whatever reason, Guthrie has had huge success at this venue over the past three years with a .194 BAA and a 0.47 ERA over three starts covering 19 innings. That may or may not hold up but Kansas City has outstanding relief and we’re betting that Buehrle gets tagged for some hits and runs. Remember, always buy low and sell high. Mark Buehrle’s stock is soaring right now, making us sellers in this market. This line is around +140 at most places but we found a +160 at SIA, so get in on that big overlay sooner rather than later.
OAKLAND -1 +106 over L.A. Angels
Before his first start of the year, we noted that Sonny Gray had 3.00 ERA upside. In his first 10 starts, Gray has made that projection seem conservative—he’s 5-1 with an ERA of to 2.31. Gray’s hit % and strand % say that his ERA will rise slightly but xERA shows that his skills remain as strong as in his rookie year. Gray boosted his K rate when he was in AAA in 2013 and he’s maintained that level in the majors. He also keeps the ball on the ground. Half of his games are in pitching-friendly O.co Coliseum but with so few fly balls, it doesn’t make much of a difference. Gray continues to dominate right-hand hitters. At 24 and coming off his first exposure to major league hitting, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see Gray occasionally struggle this year but that’s not been the case. With his 67%/0% dominant start/disaster start split, he’s avoided the disasters and frequently been dominant. This kid can pitch.
Once again, we’re going to fade Jared Weaver because no matter what people think, say or read, the numbers for Weaver just do not add up to his 2.99 ERA. Weaver’s groundball/fly-ball split is 36%/49%. That suggests balls will start leaving the yard more frequently. Weaver’s 83% strand rate is high and it’s unsustainable, as it’s roughly 8% higher than the league average. His 55 K’s in 72 innings is slightly above average but not by much. What has made Weaver so effective over the years is a lot of good fortune and the ability to change speeds. Truth be told, Weaver’s skills match guys like Jeremy Guthrie, Doug Fister and Phil Hughes. In summarizing, Weaver is not a high strikeout guy, he doesn’t have a groundball pitch, he’s posted a near-50% fly-ball rate in four of the past five seasons and his velocity is in the fifth straight year of decline. By the end of the year, Weaver’s ERA will be closer to 4 than 3 and we’ll be in line to profit when things start going south.
Pass NHL
DAVE AQUINO
RECAP - After a solid start to the MLB season, it came crashing down in May. We adjusted, and re-adjusted and nothing clicked. Then it did. We finally identified the areas of play where our MLB selection model works... specific "unders," (4-0 last three days), and games played in Colorado, (ML/RL/totals). Back to dominating baseball. The NBA and NHL playoffs have tightened a bit, but still a profit. The WNBA is settling in. We expect solid numbers there.
Eight more FREE days.
Results
NBA: Overall (66-41), 2014 (48-36), May (6-5)
MLB: UGLY - Overall (63-61) -412 units
NHL: Overall (12-6), 2014 (12-6), May (7-5)
WNBA: Overall (29-9), 2014 (2-2), May (2-2)
NCAAF: Overall (43-25), 2014 (4-1)
NCAAB: Overall (40-24), 2014 (40-24)
RECAP - After a solid start to the MLB season, it came crashing down in May. We adjusted, and re-adjusted and nothing clicked. Then it did. We finally identified the areas of play where our MLB selection model works... specific "unders," (4-0 last three days), and games played in Colorado, (ML/RL/totals). Back to dominating baseball. The NBA and NHL playoffs have tightened a bit, but still a profit. The WNBA is settling in. We expect solid numbers there.
Eight more FREE days.
Results
NBA: Overall (66-41), 2014 (48-36), May (6-5)
MLB: UGLY - Overall (63-61) -412 units
NHL: Overall (12-6), 2014 (12-6), May (7-5)
WNBA: Overall (29-9), 2014 (2-2), May (2-2)
NCAAF: Overall (43-25), 2014 (4-1)
NCAAB: Overall (40-24), 2014 (40-24)
