Dr. Bob
Opinion – UNDER (191) - Charlotte at MIAMI
There isn’t much difference between these teams (I rate Miami as only 0.6 points better) and this series is tied despite Miami making 41.2% of their 3-point shots while the Hornets have made only 30.3% from long range in the first 6 games. My variance adjusted average margin in this series is Miami by 0.6 points so these are actually playing just how I thought they would aside from the Miami’s 3 point shooting luck. Playing game 7 at home is an advantage for the Heat, as the host is 36-23-2 ATS in the deciding game of a 7 game series. However, my ratings favor the Heat by just 5 points even with the extra home advantage. I don’t want to buck the game 7 trend but I also don’t want to play Miami because of the inflated line. I have no opinion on the side but if I was forced to play it I think I’d rather take the points with Charlotte (of course, you or I are not forced to play anything). My math projects 192 total points but this game applies to a 14-1 game 7 Under situation so I’ll lean with the Under 191 points or higher.