STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
SUNDAY, APRIL 20th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#915 LA ANGELS @ #916 DETROIT - 1:05 PM
•Angels LH Hector Santiago (0-2, 4.96 ERA, WHIP: 1.470) - Santiago is still looking for his first win as an Angel, but his last outing was his best yet for his new team. The 26-year-old went seven innings and held Oakland to one run but didn't get a decision in a 3-2 loss. He is 0-2 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 games (three starts) against Detroit - with both losses coming as a starter last season.
•Tigers RH Rick Porcello (1-1, 4.15 ERA, WHIP: 1.154) - After a strong outing to begin the season, Porcello was roughed up last time out, allowing five runs on 10 hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss at San Diego. The Angels have been a tough draw for him over the years, as he is 3-4 with an 8.34 ERA in nine starts against them. He lasted a total of just five innings and gave up 16 runs in two meetings last season.
#917 TORONTO @ #918 CLEVELAND - 1:05 PM
•Blue Jays RH Brandon Morrow (1-1, 5.52 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Toronto cruised to a 9-3 victory in Morrow's previous start, but the 29-year-old California native wasn't around to collect the win. Morrow needed 98 pitches to record just 11 outs, charged with two runs on four hits while walking four and striking out four. He comes into Sunday's series finale with a 1-3 record, a 3.92 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 43 2/3 career innings against the Indians.
•Twins RH Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 7.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.741) - Carrasco has had a pair of duds to start the season, surrendering five runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Minnesota before getting torched for five runs in 4 2/3 frames against the Chicago White Sox. The 27-year-old Venezuelan has allowed batters to hit .310 against him so far in 2014, though he has allowed just one home run. Carrasco has struggled in his own stadium, going 4-13 with a 5.97 ERA in 21 starts and three relief outings at home.
#919 NY YANKEES @ #920 TAMPA BAY - 1:40 PM
•Yankees RH Vidal Nuno (0-0, 8.84 ERA, WHIP: 2.791) - Nuno performed very well as a starter over the course of three outings last May, allowing four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. One of those starts came at Tampa Bay, which managed just two runs in six-plus innings against the 26-year-old. Nuno gave up seven runs and eight hits in 3 1/3 innings of relief in a 14-5 loss to Baltimore on April 8.
•Rays LH Cesar Ramos (0-1, 7.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - This will be the second straight start following four relief appearances to begin the season for Ramos, but his first start - just the fourth of his career - did not last long as he managed two-plus frames in a 12-4 loss at Cincinnati last Sunday. Ramos gave up four runs and three hits while walking three in a difficult 47-pitch effort. The former first-round pick has a 7.62 ERA in 13 career games against New York and has walked 10 batters while striking out only eight in his 14 career innings in a starting role.
#921 MINNESOTA @ #922 KANSAS CITY - 2:10 PM
•Twins RH Phil Hughes (0-1, 7.20 ERA, WHIP: 1.667) - Hughes held the Toronto Blue Jays scoreless through five innings on Tuesday, but ended up surrendering four runs without recording another out en route to a 9-3 loss. The former 2004 first-round pick of the New York Yankees, who is 0-8 since July 2, has been tagged for four runs in five innings in each of his three 2014 outings. Although the Royals handed him his first loss during his winless stretch to increase his ERA against them to 5.95, Hughes holds a 5-2 mark against them in nine all-time appearances (eight starts).
•Royals RH Yordano Ventura (1-0, 0.69 ERA, WHIP: 0.692) - After failing to collect a victory in any of his three turns last September and settling for a no-decision in his first start this season, Ventura allowed two runs (one earned) and fanned seven over seven frames to secure his first major-league victory Tuesday against the Houston Astros. The 22-year-old Dominican was even more impressive in his first outing against the Tampa Bay Rays one week earlier, holding them to two hits over six scoreless innings. Ventura, who will make his sixth career start, will face Minnesota for the first time.
#923 CHI WHITE SOX @ #924 TEXAS - 3:05 PM
•White Sox RH Erik Johnson (0-1, 6.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.646) - Johnson allowed 11 runs over 10 1/3 innings spanning his first two starts, but bounced back to yield one run in 6 2/3 frames against Boston. The Rangers' lineup will likely be loaded with left-handed hitters as Johnson has afforded southpaws a .355 batting average and a .474 on-base percentage this season. This will be the 24-year-old's first start against Texas.
•Rangers LH Robbie Ross (1-0, 1.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.222) - Ross enters this matchup having not allowed an earned run in 15 straight innings following a splendid outing Tuesday in which he went 7 2/3 scoreless innings against Seattle. Ross also displayed improved control in that game as he did not walk a batter after issuing six free passes in his previous outing. The 24-year-old Kentucky native has made six career appearances against Texas - all in relief - and has not allowed a run over 6 2/3 innings.
#925 HOUSTON @ #926 OAKLAND - 4:05 PM
•Astros RH Brad Peacock (0-1, 7.45 ERA, WHIP: 2.062) - Peacock moves into the starting rotation after Houston designated Lucas Harrell for assignment Wednesday. The 26-year-old Palm Beach, Fla., native has fared better as a starter in his career (7-6, 4.38 ERA in 16 games) than as a reliever (0-1, 7.23 in nine contests), and was 4-3 in nine turns to end the 2013 season. Peacock is 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA while striking out 21 in 15 2/3 innings over three starts against Oakland, with Coco Crisp (4-for-7, home run, two doubles) giving him trouble.
•Athletics RH Jesse Chavez (0-0, 1.35 ERA, WHIP: 0.850) - Chavez joined Dan Haren as the only Athletics pitchers to strike out nine or more without issuing a walk in back-to-back starts since 1914. Chavez made only two starts in his previous 191 games before delivering three quality starts to begin 2014, with Oakland winning each game. The 30-year-old Victorville, Calif., native, who has an 0.92 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings over 15 relief appearances against Houston, fanned 22 in 20 innings this season while sporting an 0.85 WHIP.
#927 BALTIMORE @ #928 BOSTON - 7:05 PM
•Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (0-3, 7.31 ERA, WHIP: 2.062) - Jimenez has not exactly been everything Baltimore hoped for when it signed him to a four-year, $50-million free-agent deal over the winter. The 30-year-old has a history of slow starts and allowed at least four earned runs in each of his first three turns, including four runs over six innings in a loss to Boston on April 2. Jimenez struggles against Red Sox stars Mike Napoli (4-for-7, 2 HRs), Jonny Gomes (5-for-15, 2 HRs) and Dustin Pedroia (7-for-13 with four RBIs).
•Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (0-0, 1.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.178) - Peavy has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start but is winless due to a lack of run support. The 32-year-old allowed one run and three hits while striking out eight over six innings at Chicago on Tuesday but was held out of the decision in a game the Red Sox went on to lose 2-1. Peavy missed the first series with Baltimore and made only one start against the Orioles last season, allowing three runs on six hits in seven innings.
#929 SEATTLE @ #930 MIAMI - 1:10 PM
•Mariners RH Brandon Maurer (2013: 5-8, 6.30 ERA, WHIP: N/A) - The Mariners recalled Maurer from Triple-A Tacoma on Friday as a replacement for Blake Beavan, who was placed on the 15-day disabled because of shoulder tendinitis. Maurer was in line to earn in spot in the starting rotation during spring training, but a back ailment left him behind. He has made three relief appearances and one start for Tacoma this season, striking out 17 batters in 8 1/3 innings.
•Marlins RH Kevin Slowey (0-0, 4.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.545) - Slowey is also making his first start of the season after four relief appearances, all in losses, replacing left-hander Brad Hand, who struggled in his last two starts. Slowey last started a game July 8 against the Atlanta Braves, but was moved to the bullpen about 10 days later to make room for Nathan Eovaldi and Alvarez, who remain in the starting rotation. Slowey, who spent five years as a starter for the Minnesota Twins, is 2-2 in five career starts against the Mariners with a 4.18 ERA.
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SUNDAY, APRIL 20th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
#915 LA ANGELS @ #916 DETROIT - 1:05 PM
•Angels LH Hector Santiago (0-2, 4.96 ERA, WHIP: 1.470) - Santiago is still looking for his first win as an Angel, but his last outing was his best yet for his new team. The 26-year-old went seven innings and held Oakland to one run but didn't get a decision in a 3-2 loss. He is 0-2 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 games (three starts) against Detroit - with both losses coming as a starter last season.
•Tigers RH Rick Porcello (1-1, 4.15 ERA, WHIP: 1.154) - After a strong outing to begin the season, Porcello was roughed up last time out, allowing five runs on 10 hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss at San Diego. The Angels have been a tough draw for him over the years, as he is 3-4 with an 8.34 ERA in nine starts against them. He lasted a total of just five innings and gave up 16 runs in two meetings last season.
#917 TORONTO @ #918 CLEVELAND - 1:05 PM
•Blue Jays RH Brandon Morrow (1-1, 5.52 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Toronto cruised to a 9-3 victory in Morrow's previous start, but the 29-year-old California native wasn't around to collect the win. Morrow needed 98 pitches to record just 11 outs, charged with two runs on four hits while walking four and striking out four. He comes into Sunday's series finale with a 1-3 record, a 3.92 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 43 2/3 career innings against the Indians.
•Twins RH Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 7.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.741) - Carrasco has had a pair of duds to start the season, surrendering five runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Minnesota before getting torched for five runs in 4 2/3 frames against the Chicago White Sox. The 27-year-old Venezuelan has allowed batters to hit .310 against him so far in 2014, though he has allowed just one home run. Carrasco has struggled in his own stadium, going 4-13 with a 5.97 ERA in 21 starts and three relief outings at home.
#919 NY YANKEES @ #920 TAMPA BAY - 1:40 PM
•Yankees RH Vidal Nuno (0-0, 8.84 ERA, WHIP: 2.791) - Nuno performed very well as a starter over the course of three outings last May, allowing four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. One of those starts came at Tampa Bay, which managed just two runs in six-plus innings against the 26-year-old. Nuno gave up seven runs and eight hits in 3 1/3 innings of relief in a 14-5 loss to Baltimore on April 8.
•Rays LH Cesar Ramos (0-1, 7.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - This will be the second straight start following four relief appearances to begin the season for Ramos, but his first start - just the fourth of his career - did not last long as he managed two-plus frames in a 12-4 loss at Cincinnati last Sunday. Ramos gave up four runs and three hits while walking three in a difficult 47-pitch effort. The former first-round pick has a 7.62 ERA in 13 career games against New York and has walked 10 batters while striking out only eight in his 14 career innings in a starting role.
#921 MINNESOTA @ #922 KANSAS CITY - 2:10 PM
•Twins RH Phil Hughes (0-1, 7.20 ERA, WHIP: 1.667) - Hughes held the Toronto Blue Jays scoreless through five innings on Tuesday, but ended up surrendering four runs without recording another out en route to a 9-3 loss. The former 2004 first-round pick of the New York Yankees, who is 0-8 since July 2, has been tagged for four runs in five innings in each of his three 2014 outings. Although the Royals handed him his first loss during his winless stretch to increase his ERA against them to 5.95, Hughes holds a 5-2 mark against them in nine all-time appearances (eight starts).
•Royals RH Yordano Ventura (1-0, 0.69 ERA, WHIP: 0.692) - After failing to collect a victory in any of his three turns last September and settling for a no-decision in his first start this season, Ventura allowed two runs (one earned) and fanned seven over seven frames to secure his first major-league victory Tuesday against the Houston Astros. The 22-year-old Dominican was even more impressive in his first outing against the Tampa Bay Rays one week earlier, holding them to two hits over six scoreless innings. Ventura, who will make his sixth career start, will face Minnesota for the first time.
#923 CHI WHITE SOX @ #924 TEXAS - 3:05 PM
•White Sox RH Erik Johnson (0-1, 6.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.646) - Johnson allowed 11 runs over 10 1/3 innings spanning his first two starts, but bounced back to yield one run in 6 2/3 frames against Boston. The Rangers' lineup will likely be loaded with left-handed hitters as Johnson has afforded southpaws a .355 batting average and a .474 on-base percentage this season. This will be the 24-year-old's first start against Texas.
•Rangers LH Robbie Ross (1-0, 1.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.222) - Ross enters this matchup having not allowed an earned run in 15 straight innings following a splendid outing Tuesday in which he went 7 2/3 scoreless innings against Seattle. Ross also displayed improved control in that game as he did not walk a batter after issuing six free passes in his previous outing. The 24-year-old Kentucky native has made six career appearances against Texas - all in relief - and has not allowed a run over 6 2/3 innings.
#925 HOUSTON @ #926 OAKLAND - 4:05 PM
•Astros RH Brad Peacock (0-1, 7.45 ERA, WHIP: 2.062) - Peacock moves into the starting rotation after Houston designated Lucas Harrell for assignment Wednesday. The 26-year-old Palm Beach, Fla., native has fared better as a starter in his career (7-6, 4.38 ERA in 16 games) than as a reliever (0-1, 7.23 in nine contests), and was 4-3 in nine turns to end the 2013 season. Peacock is 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA while striking out 21 in 15 2/3 innings over three starts against Oakland, with Coco Crisp (4-for-7, home run, two doubles) giving him trouble.
•Athletics RH Jesse Chavez (0-0, 1.35 ERA, WHIP: 0.850) - Chavez joined Dan Haren as the only Athletics pitchers to strike out nine or more without issuing a walk in back-to-back starts since 1914. Chavez made only two starts in his previous 191 games before delivering three quality starts to begin 2014, with Oakland winning each game. The 30-year-old Victorville, Calif., native, who has an 0.92 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings over 15 relief appearances against Houston, fanned 22 in 20 innings this season while sporting an 0.85 WHIP.
#927 BALTIMORE @ #928 BOSTON - 7:05 PM
•Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (0-3, 7.31 ERA, WHIP: 2.062) - Jimenez has not exactly been everything Baltimore hoped for when it signed him to a four-year, $50-million free-agent deal over the winter. The 30-year-old has a history of slow starts and allowed at least four earned runs in each of his first three turns, including four runs over six innings in a loss to Boston on April 2. Jimenez struggles against Red Sox stars Mike Napoli (4-for-7, 2 HRs), Jonny Gomes (5-for-15, 2 HRs) and Dustin Pedroia (7-for-13 with four RBIs).
•Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (0-0, 1.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.178) - Peavy has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start but is winless due to a lack of run support. The 32-year-old allowed one run and three hits while striking out eight over six innings at Chicago on Tuesday but was held out of the decision in a game the Red Sox went on to lose 2-1. Peavy missed the first series with Baltimore and made only one start against the Orioles last season, allowing three runs on six hits in seven innings.
#929 SEATTLE @ #930 MIAMI - 1:10 PM
•Mariners RH Brandon Maurer (2013: 5-8, 6.30 ERA, WHIP: N/A) - The Mariners recalled Maurer from Triple-A Tacoma on Friday as a replacement for Blake Beavan, who was placed on the 15-day disabled because of shoulder tendinitis. Maurer was in line to earn in spot in the starting rotation during spring training, but a back ailment left him behind. He has made three relief appearances and one start for Tacoma this season, striking out 17 batters in 8 1/3 innings.
•Marlins RH Kevin Slowey (0-0, 4.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.545) - Slowey is also making his first start of the season after four relief appearances, all in losses, replacing left-hander Brad Hand, who struggled in his last two starts. Slowey last started a game July 8 against the Atlanta Braves, but was moved to the bullpen about 10 days later to make room for Nathan Eovaldi and Alvarez, who remain in the starting rotation. Slowey, who spent five years as a starter for the Minnesota Twins, is 2-2 in five career starts against the Mariners with a 4.18 ERA.
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Ecks and Bacon Happy Easter
Ben lee lost on Saturday in the NBA with the Raptors -2/Nets.
"Mr Chalk" won on Saturday in MLB with the A's -$205/Astros.
For Sunday E&B like a four team five point teaser in the NBA Playoffs.
(1) Spurs from -9 to-4/Mavricks
(2) Heat from -9.5 to -4.5/Bobcats
(3) Bulls from -4.5 to +.5/Wizards
(4) Rockets from -5 to Pk/Trailblazers
In the NHL Playoffs E&B like the Canadiens -$$160/Lightning.
In MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Royals -$200/Twins.
Ben lee is 5-3 +$24 for week twenty five 99-110-5 -$1825
"Mr Chalk" is 9-6 +$56 for the 2014 MLB season
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee lost on Saturday in the NBA with the Raptors -2/Nets.
"Mr Chalk" won on Saturday in MLB with the A's -$205/Astros.
For Sunday E&B like a four team five point teaser in the NBA Playoffs.
(1) Spurs from -9 to-4/Mavricks
(2) Heat from -9.5 to -4.5/Bobcats
(3) Bulls from -4.5 to +.5/Wizards
(4) Rockets from -5 to Pk/Trailblazers
In the NHL Playoffs E&B like the Canadiens -$$160/Lightning.
In MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Royals -$200/Twins.
Ben lee is 5-3 +$24 for week twenty five 99-110-5 -$1825
"Mr Chalk" is 9-6 +$56 for the 2014 MLB season
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
SPORTS WAGERS
NHL Playoffs - Game 2
N.Y. RANGERS -½ +100 over Philadelphia
Regulation only. You can never underestimate the psychological advantage a team has when they keep beating up on the same team over and over. Such is the case when the Flyers play at Madison Square. In three games at MSG this season, Philly is 0-3 and has not scored more than one goal in any of those games while being scored on 11 times. Philadelphia has dropped 13 of the past 16 games in New York and they didn’t belong on the same ice with them in Game 1, despite it being close for two periods. Furthermore, the Flyers have just one win over their past nine games against a team over .500. To make matters worse and we can’t overstate this enough either, Ray Emery is forced to play again because Steve Mason is still on the rack. Emery is a backup goalie and while he wasn’t the reason the Flyers lost Game 1, the players do not play with the same confidence they do when their #1 guy is in there. The Bolts are going through the same situation and it’s not pretty.
Aside from those two significant intangibles, the Rangers are playing outstanding hockey. You could sense in Game 1 the confidence they were building with each passing shift. The Rangers limited the Flyers to 15 shots in Game 1, including just one in the third period and over the course of the regular season, they have kept Philly’s top line of Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell and Jakub Voracek in check. In fact, the Rangers are playing at a level defensively that John Tortorella could only dream about. New York held the opposition to one goal or less, 31 times this season and now Henrik Lundqvist appears to be back at the top of his game. New York is the superior defensive team by a wide margin, more confident, they have superior goaltending and they’ll play Game 2 at a venue that the Flyers can’t win at.
NHL Playoffs - Game 2
Detroit +192 over BOSTON
OT included. We’ve been preaching all year how undervalued these Red Wings are and while we have them in the series, we can’t pass up this opportunity to take back nearly 2-1 in a game they can win. Indeed the Bruins are dangerous and indeed they could win the next four games but Detroit is still playing with house money and they are just as dangerous as any team in the East. Mike Babcock had the Red Wings so well prepped for Game 1 that it was a thing of beauty to watch. Detroit has all the ingredients to pull off another upset. They have speed, something the Bruins have trouble with, they have outstanding young talent and they have enough talented and impactful veterans (Datsyuk, Alfredsson, Franzen, Legwand, Kronwell) that know exactly how to approach these types of games. Detroit’s defense and goaltending was outstanding in Game 1.
Boston has played a ton of hockey over the past two years and it could be taking a toll. They went to the finals last season. They had more players than any team to appear in the Olympics in Russia. The B’s may have peaked a bit too early this year instead of saving their best for the playoffs. Boston is slower than Detroit and while they have a great cycle game, the Red Wings had a plan to neutralize that and they succeeded in doing so. Detroit defeated Boston in three of the four games they played during the regular season. They defeated them in Game 1 and they now take that psychological edge and momentum into Game 2. It’s hard to imagine the Bruins being down 0-2 after two home games but don’t discount that. The Red Wings are a confident group and when a confident bunch of guys with a slew of young talent get on a roll, look out. The tag here is too juicy to pass up on.
NHL Playoffs - Game 2
SAN JOSE -½ +120 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. The events of Game 1 are of no consequence in Game 2 so expect Los Angeles to be better here. The problem is that it still won’t be enough. The Kings are possession monsters, leading the NHL in that category. However, they struggle to get pucks in the net, especially on the power play. Los Angeles scored on just 15.1 percent of opportunities; Carolina, Florida and Buffalo were the only teams worse with the man advantage. The addition of Marian Gaborik, who has one power-play goal in 19 games, has not helped the Kings' struggles demonstrably thus far. The Sharks will not make life any easier on L.A.'s power play. They rank sixth in the NHL on the penalty kill. More than that however, is the fact that the Kings limped into the playoffs by losing four of their last five regular season games and have just two wins (Phoenix and Edmonton) over their last eight games. In the Kings last three losses they have allowed 14 goals against. Jonathan Quick is widely regarded as the one of the best in the game but that’s based on what? One outstanding playoff series when the Kings won the Cup? Fact is, Quick isn’t as good as advertised. He’s had save percentages of .821, .875 .833, .850 and .852 in five of his last eight games and under .876 (.821, .875 .833) in three straight. San Jose’s room full of snipers should have little trouble scoring a few more against a suddenly fragile Quick in Game 2.
The Sharks are deep with scoring talent and can compete with Los Angeles in the puck possession game. San Jose is third in the NHL in shot attempt differential and sixth in goals per game. The Kings only score 2.42 goals per game, good for 27th in the NHL and that’s the big difference between the two. Had L.A. been close in Game 1 and played well, we might be looking at this game a bit differently. However, the Kings were blown out in Game 1 and haven’t been playing well for over two weeks now. The Sharkies have outscored their last three opponents by a count of 14-5. Their 29-7-5 home record was best in the West and they had a goal differential overall of +49. Simply put, the Sharks are in much better form and they’ve never looked hungrier.
NHL Playoffs - Game 2
N.Y. RANGERS -½ +100 over Philadelphia
Regulation only. You can never underestimate the psychological advantage a team has when they keep beating up on the same team over and over. Such is the case when the Flyers play at Madison Square. In three games at MSG this season, Philly is 0-3 and has not scored more than one goal in any of those games while being scored on 11 times. Philadelphia has dropped 13 of the past 16 games in New York and they didn’t belong on the same ice with them in Game 1, despite it being close for two periods. Furthermore, the Flyers have just one win over their past nine games against a team over .500. To make matters worse and we can’t overstate this enough either, Ray Emery is forced to play again because Steve Mason is still on the rack. Emery is a backup goalie and while he wasn’t the reason the Flyers lost Game 1, the players do not play with the same confidence they do when their #1 guy is in there. The Bolts are going through the same situation and it’s not pretty.
Aside from those two significant intangibles, the Rangers are playing outstanding hockey. You could sense in Game 1 the confidence they were building with each passing shift. The Rangers limited the Flyers to 15 shots in Game 1, including just one in the third period and over the course of the regular season, they have kept Philly’s top line of Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell and Jakub Voracek in check. In fact, the Rangers are playing at a level defensively that John Tortorella could only dream about. New York held the opposition to one goal or less, 31 times this season and now Henrik Lundqvist appears to be back at the top of his game. New York is the superior defensive team by a wide margin, more confident, they have superior goaltending and they’ll play Game 2 at a venue that the Flyers can’t win at.
NHL Playoffs - Game 2
Detroit +192 over BOSTON
OT included. We’ve been preaching all year how undervalued these Red Wings are and while we have them in the series, we can’t pass up this opportunity to take back nearly 2-1 in a game they can win. Indeed the Bruins are dangerous and indeed they could win the next four games but Detroit is still playing with house money and they are just as dangerous as any team in the East. Mike Babcock had the Red Wings so well prepped for Game 1 that it was a thing of beauty to watch. Detroit has all the ingredients to pull off another upset. They have speed, something the Bruins have trouble with, they have outstanding young talent and they have enough talented and impactful veterans (Datsyuk, Alfredsson, Franzen, Legwand, Kronwell) that know exactly how to approach these types of games. Detroit’s defense and goaltending was outstanding in Game 1.
Boston has played a ton of hockey over the past two years and it could be taking a toll. They went to the finals last season. They had more players than any team to appear in the Olympics in Russia. The B’s may have peaked a bit too early this year instead of saving their best for the playoffs. Boston is slower than Detroit and while they have a great cycle game, the Red Wings had a plan to neutralize that and they succeeded in doing so. Detroit defeated Boston in three of the four games they played during the regular season. They defeated them in Game 1 and they now take that psychological edge and momentum into Game 2. It’s hard to imagine the Bruins being down 0-2 after two home games but don’t discount that. The Red Wings are a confident group and when a confident bunch of guys with a slew of young talent get on a roll, look out. The tag here is too juicy to pass up on.
NHL Playoffs - Game 2
SAN JOSE -½ +120 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. The events of Game 1 are of no consequence in Game 2 so expect Los Angeles to be better here. The problem is that it still won’t be enough. The Kings are possession monsters, leading the NHL in that category. However, they struggle to get pucks in the net, especially on the power play. Los Angeles scored on just 15.1 percent of opportunities; Carolina, Florida and Buffalo were the only teams worse with the man advantage. The addition of Marian Gaborik, who has one power-play goal in 19 games, has not helped the Kings' struggles demonstrably thus far. The Sharks will not make life any easier on L.A.'s power play. They rank sixth in the NHL on the penalty kill. More than that however, is the fact that the Kings limped into the playoffs by losing four of their last five regular season games and have just two wins (Phoenix and Edmonton) over their last eight games. In the Kings last three losses they have allowed 14 goals against. Jonathan Quick is widely regarded as the one of the best in the game but that’s based on what? One outstanding playoff series when the Kings won the Cup? Fact is, Quick isn’t as good as advertised. He’s had save percentages of .821, .875 .833, .850 and .852 in five of his last eight games and under .876 (.821, .875 .833) in three straight. San Jose’s room full of snipers should have little trouble scoring a few more against a suddenly fragile Quick in Game 2.
The Sharks are deep with scoring talent and can compete with Los Angeles in the puck possession game. San Jose is third in the NHL in shot attempt differential and sixth in goals per game. The Kings only score 2.42 goals per game, good for 27th in the NHL and that’s the big difference between the two. Had L.A. been close in Game 1 and played well, we might be looking at this game a bit differently. However, the Kings were blown out in Game 1 and haven’t been playing well for over two weeks now. The Sharkies have outscored their last three opponents by a count of 14-5. Their 29-7-5 home record was best in the West and they had a goal differential overall of +49. Simply put, the Sharks are in much better form and they’ve never looked hungrier.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee @ PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee +114 over PITTSBURGH
How do we know that this year’s edition of the Brewers is different from Brewers teams of the past decade or so? Well, a game like yesterday was precisely the type of game the Brewers would have lost in years gone by. Milwaukee had a 4-1 lead going to the bottom of the fourth when Pittsburgh rallied for five runs to take a 6-4 lead. Down 7-6 going to the ninth, the Brewers rallied for two runs in the top of the inning and Francisco Rodriguez closed it out with a perfect ninth. Milwaukee is now 13-5 and they’re finding ways to win. They have also defeated the Pirates in all five games this season and there’s no reason they can’t defeat them again. Geritt Cole has pitched beautifully since being called up last season but he’s laboring a bit this year. Cole has already been tagged for three jacks over his three starts this year. Throw out his start against the Cubbies at Wrigley and in his other two starts, he’s walked five batters and struck out just six over 13 innings. Remember, Cole put up mediocre Triple-A numbers before being called up and while he has a high ceiling, Cole is finding the second go around much tougher now that hitters have had time to study him.
A hamstring injury cost Marco Estrada a third of the season last year. When he returned he had a dominant second half, which mirrored his superb second half in 2012. Estrada has now shown plus-plus ability. Estrada has pitched well over his first three starts, missing bats and inducing ground balls at a good clip. Estrada logged 19 IP against the Pirates a year ago and posted excellent strikeout numbers (9 K’s/9) outstanding command and a 3.03 xERA. Pittsburgh has started cold, batting just .227 through its first two weeks and Estrada might be the best Brewer pitcher of them all. Estrada’s skills command our full attention and as a pooch against the struggling Pirates, he and the Crew are a much better option taking back a tag than the Pirates are spotting one.
N.Y. Yankees @ TAMPA BAY
N.Y. Yankees/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +104
It took a visit from the Yankees to wake up the Rays bats and wake up they did. In the first two games of this series, Tampa has 32 hits and scored 27 runs. Tampa Bay has worn out both the Yankees starters and bullpen and there is no question they will see the pen again today in relief of Vidal Nuno. Let us bring you up to speed on Nuno. He’s appeared in eight games in the majors, three as a starter and he’s about to turn 27. Nuno turned some heads with a solid 2012 season at Double-A (though he was a bit old for the level), followed up by an impressive spring training and start to 2013 at Triple-A. However, he has never really been able to get over the minor league hump. Nuno is a 48th round draft pick in ’09 who has never been on any top prospect lists. He was actually released from the Indians farm system in ’10 before spending some time playing independent ball. That is where the Yankees found him and he has moved quickly through their system. Nuno does not have a typical starter’s frame at 5-11 195, nor does he have a plus pitch in his repertoire. He has to rely on a deceptive delivery along with a nearly side-arm slot to keeps hitters off-balance. Arm angle makes him much tougher on left-handed batters. Nuno throws four pitches and can locate all of them well: fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. Fastball tops out at 91 mph with pretty good location. He will use his fastball to work ahead in the count and try to get hitters to chase his secondary stuff out of the zone but he’s not fooling anyone at this level. His career numbers at this level are awful, albeit a small sample size, but expected him to thrive today against a scorching hot club would be unreasonable.
Cesar Ramos draws the Yankees for his second start. He likely won’t be on much of a pitch-count leash having been in the Rays bullpen at the start of the season. He’s coming off a shaky outing and the Yankees have fared quite well against left-handed pitching (.797 OPS). New York’s offense has also gotten cranked up over the last week with an .824 OPS over the past seven games. Ramos has been primarily a lefty specialist that was overexposed vs. RH bats. With marginal command against righties and a 91-mph fastball that they torched, he just doesn't have the goods to sustain a sub-4.00 ERA in an expanded role. Ramos has appeared in 148 major-league games over his career and 144 of those were in relief. At the age of 30 and with brutally awful numbers as a starter, we highly doubt he’s going to catch lightning in a bottle here. Both these pitchers have a great chance of blowing up, prompting us to step in.
Seattle @ MIAMI
Seattle +100 over MIAMI
Kevin Slowey has appeared in four games this season, all in relief. He now makes his first start of the season after allowing 15 hits and seven runs in 12 innings in relief. The Marlins are 0-4 in the four games that Slowey has appeared in. He missed all of 2012 after the Twins gave up on him after the 2011 season when they traded him to Colorado for a player to be named later. He never pitched for the Rockies and six days later he was traded to Cleveland for Zach Putnam. He subsequently spent the entire season on the minor-league disabled list. Slowey was out-righted to Columbus and removed from the Indians' 40-man roster on October 31, 2012. He subsequently elected to become a free agent and signed with the Marlins as a non-roster invitee. Not being able to crack the Twins rotation is equivalent to being the 11th man on the 76ers bench. In 92 innings for the Marlins last season, Slowey allowed 106 hits in 92 innings. He has a career ERA of 4.58 and a career BAA of .290. He's a fly-ball pitcher who struggles to keep the ball in the park. Slowey's K rate was in steep decline when he was banished to the minor leagues in 2011. His excellent command rate is owed entirely to the fact he rarely walks batters. Slowey defines a control artist who relies on fly ball outs to get out of innings. The problem is those fly balls are too often line drive rockets into the outfield or balls that leave the park entirely. He'll certainly be helped by getting to face opposing pitchers a couple of times a game but Slowey is a complete stiff that isn’t a stranger to most of the Mariners hitters from his days as a Twinkie. Dude is unplayable.
Brandon Maurer might not seem like an attractive starting pitcher target in 2014. After all, he had an ugly 6.30 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with Seattle in 2013 and he has struggled with back issues early in his career. But there are also reasons to view him as a growth stock. His skills in the second half with the M’s last year were excellent with 8.4 K’s per nine, 2.2 BB/9 per nine and a 47% groundball rate. Maurer already has one of the better curveballs in the AL. He had a 39% K% and 11% swinging strike rate with that pitch. His problem was his 93-mph four-seam fastball, a pitch that batters hit hard, especially lefties (.607 SLG). With more effective heat, Maurer could take a big leap forward and deliver a ton of profit in 2014. We’ll out that to the test here.
Milwaukee @ PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee +114 over PITTSBURGH
How do we know that this year’s edition of the Brewers is different from Brewers teams of the past decade or so? Well, a game like yesterday was precisely the type of game the Brewers would have lost in years gone by. Milwaukee had a 4-1 lead going to the bottom of the fourth when Pittsburgh rallied for five runs to take a 6-4 lead. Down 7-6 going to the ninth, the Brewers rallied for two runs in the top of the inning and Francisco Rodriguez closed it out with a perfect ninth. Milwaukee is now 13-5 and they’re finding ways to win. They have also defeated the Pirates in all five games this season and there’s no reason they can’t defeat them again. Geritt Cole has pitched beautifully since being called up last season but he’s laboring a bit this year. Cole has already been tagged for three jacks over his three starts this year. Throw out his start against the Cubbies at Wrigley and in his other two starts, he’s walked five batters and struck out just six over 13 innings. Remember, Cole put up mediocre Triple-A numbers before being called up and while he has a high ceiling, Cole is finding the second go around much tougher now that hitters have had time to study him.
A hamstring injury cost Marco Estrada a third of the season last year. When he returned he had a dominant second half, which mirrored his superb second half in 2012. Estrada has now shown plus-plus ability. Estrada has pitched well over his first three starts, missing bats and inducing ground balls at a good clip. Estrada logged 19 IP against the Pirates a year ago and posted excellent strikeout numbers (9 K’s/9) outstanding command and a 3.03 xERA. Pittsburgh has started cold, batting just .227 through its first two weeks and Estrada might be the best Brewer pitcher of them all. Estrada’s skills command our full attention and as a pooch against the struggling Pirates, he and the Crew are a much better option taking back a tag than the Pirates are spotting one.
N.Y. Yankees @ TAMPA BAY
N.Y. Yankees/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +104
It took a visit from the Yankees to wake up the Rays bats and wake up they did. In the first two games of this series, Tampa has 32 hits and scored 27 runs. Tampa Bay has worn out both the Yankees starters and bullpen and there is no question they will see the pen again today in relief of Vidal Nuno. Let us bring you up to speed on Nuno. He’s appeared in eight games in the majors, three as a starter and he’s about to turn 27. Nuno turned some heads with a solid 2012 season at Double-A (though he was a bit old for the level), followed up by an impressive spring training and start to 2013 at Triple-A. However, he has never really been able to get over the minor league hump. Nuno is a 48th round draft pick in ’09 who has never been on any top prospect lists. He was actually released from the Indians farm system in ’10 before spending some time playing independent ball. That is where the Yankees found him and he has moved quickly through their system. Nuno does not have a typical starter’s frame at 5-11 195, nor does he have a plus pitch in his repertoire. He has to rely on a deceptive delivery along with a nearly side-arm slot to keeps hitters off-balance. Arm angle makes him much tougher on left-handed batters. Nuno throws four pitches and can locate all of them well: fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. Fastball tops out at 91 mph with pretty good location. He will use his fastball to work ahead in the count and try to get hitters to chase his secondary stuff out of the zone but he’s not fooling anyone at this level. His career numbers at this level are awful, albeit a small sample size, but expected him to thrive today against a scorching hot club would be unreasonable.
Cesar Ramos draws the Yankees for his second start. He likely won’t be on much of a pitch-count leash having been in the Rays bullpen at the start of the season. He’s coming off a shaky outing and the Yankees have fared quite well against left-handed pitching (.797 OPS). New York’s offense has also gotten cranked up over the last week with an .824 OPS over the past seven games. Ramos has been primarily a lefty specialist that was overexposed vs. RH bats. With marginal command against righties and a 91-mph fastball that they torched, he just doesn't have the goods to sustain a sub-4.00 ERA in an expanded role. Ramos has appeared in 148 major-league games over his career and 144 of those were in relief. At the age of 30 and with brutally awful numbers as a starter, we highly doubt he’s going to catch lightning in a bottle here. Both these pitchers have a great chance of blowing up, prompting us to step in.
Seattle @ MIAMI
Seattle +100 over MIAMI
Kevin Slowey has appeared in four games this season, all in relief. He now makes his first start of the season after allowing 15 hits and seven runs in 12 innings in relief. The Marlins are 0-4 in the four games that Slowey has appeared in. He missed all of 2012 after the Twins gave up on him after the 2011 season when they traded him to Colorado for a player to be named later. He never pitched for the Rockies and six days later he was traded to Cleveland for Zach Putnam. He subsequently spent the entire season on the minor-league disabled list. Slowey was out-righted to Columbus and removed from the Indians' 40-man roster on October 31, 2012. He subsequently elected to become a free agent and signed with the Marlins as a non-roster invitee. Not being able to crack the Twins rotation is equivalent to being the 11th man on the 76ers bench. In 92 innings for the Marlins last season, Slowey allowed 106 hits in 92 innings. He has a career ERA of 4.58 and a career BAA of .290. He's a fly-ball pitcher who struggles to keep the ball in the park. Slowey's K rate was in steep decline when he was banished to the minor leagues in 2011. His excellent command rate is owed entirely to the fact he rarely walks batters. Slowey defines a control artist who relies on fly ball outs to get out of innings. The problem is those fly balls are too often line drive rockets into the outfield or balls that leave the park entirely. He'll certainly be helped by getting to face opposing pitchers a couple of times a game but Slowey is a complete stiff that isn’t a stranger to most of the Mariners hitters from his days as a Twinkie. Dude is unplayable.
Brandon Maurer might not seem like an attractive starting pitcher target in 2014. After all, he had an ugly 6.30 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with Seattle in 2013 and he has struggled with back issues early in his career. But there are also reasons to view him as a growth stock. His skills in the second half with the M’s last year were excellent with 8.4 K’s per nine, 2.2 BB/9 per nine and a 47% groundball rate. Maurer already has one of the better curveballs in the AL. He had a 39% K% and 11% swinging strike rate with that pitch. His problem was his 93-mph four-seam fastball, a pitch that batters hit hard, especially lefties (.607 SLG). With more effective heat, Maurer could take a big leap forward and deliver a ton of profit in 2014. We’ll out that to the test here.
ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS
(records are of current month only)
BASEBALL RELEASES
JEFF (14-18-3 -6.88)
1X- TORONTO -115 CLEVELAND (1PM)
JIMMY (17-13 +2.11)
1X- MILWAUKEE +104 PITTSBURGH (130PM)
1X- SF +100 SD (4PM)
MARC (20-16-3 +2.96)
1X-PHILADELPHIA/COLORADO – OVER 9.5 -115(4PM)
1X- NYY/TAMPA – OVER 8.5 +105 (140PM)
NHL RELEASES
JIMMY (7-7 -3.69)
1X- PHILADELPHIA/NYR – UNDER 5 -105 (12PM)
MARC (8-7-1 +.20)
1X- TAMPA/ONTREAL – OVER 5 -120 (7PM)
NBA RELEASES
JEFF (5-5 -.50)
1X- CHICAGO -4.5 WASHINGTON (7PM)
JIMMY (1-3 -2.30)
1X- MIAMI/CHARLOTTE – UNDER 188 (330PM)
MARC (9-3+ 5.70)
1X- DALLAS/SA – OVER 206 (1PM)
(records are of current month only)
BASEBALL RELEASES
JEFF (14-18-3 -6.88)
1X- TORONTO -115 CLEVELAND (1PM)
JIMMY (17-13 +2.11)
1X- MILWAUKEE +104 PITTSBURGH (130PM)
1X- SF +100 SD (4PM)
MARC (20-16-3 +2.96)
1X-PHILADELPHIA/COLORADO – OVER 9.5 -115(4PM)
1X- NYY/TAMPA – OVER 8.5 +105 (140PM)
NHL RELEASES
JIMMY (7-7 -3.69)
1X- PHILADELPHIA/NYR – UNDER 5 -105 (12PM)
MARC (8-7-1 +.20)
1X- TAMPA/ONTREAL – OVER 5 -120 (7PM)
NBA RELEASES
JEFF (5-5 -.50)
1X- CHICAGO -4.5 WASHINGTON (7PM)
JIMMY (1-3 -2.30)
1X- MIAMI/CHARLOTTE – UNDER 188 (330PM)
MARC (9-3+ 5.70)
1X- DALLAS/SA – OVER 206 (1PM)
GC: NHL PLay
Easter Sunday card has 2 Solid NBA System plays, 2 MLB Plays, including the Sunday night Total of the Month and a 100% Dog system + an NHL Playoff system. Early NHL Play below
On Sunday the NHL Play is on the NY. Rangers. Game 78 at 12:05 eastern. As seen below teams up 1-0 all time in the NHL Playoffs are 72-51 in round 1. The Rangers are 9-0 here vs Philadelphia and outscoring them 35-10 in those 9 wins. The Rangers have a big goaltending edge with Lundquist and dominated the 3rd period of game game outscoring the Flyers 3-0 to take the momentum into game 2. The Rangers have won 14 of 15 when playing off 3+ games that went under and are 9-4 on Sundays. They have the #3 power play kill unit. Philly has lost 11 of 16 with 2 days rest and both recent times when trailing in a series and 6 of 9 in April. Look for the Rangers to make all Easter Parishioners happy as they take game 2. On Sunday end the week big as we have 2 Powerful NBA Power system plays one is 100%, their is the MLB Sunday night total of the Month, a 100% dog system and NHL. Jump on and end the week big. For the free Early play take the NY. Rangers. GC
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 1-game-nil @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 1-game-nil with site order H (New York Rangers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013
Game 2 record, NHL only, all rounds: 250-143 (.636)
Game 2 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 72-51 (.585)
Easter Sunday card has 2 Solid NBA System plays, 2 MLB Plays, including the Sunday night Total of the Month and a 100% Dog system + an NHL Playoff system. Early NHL Play below
On Sunday the NHL Play is on the NY. Rangers. Game 78 at 12:05 eastern. As seen below teams up 1-0 all time in the NHL Playoffs are 72-51 in round 1. The Rangers are 9-0 here vs Philadelphia and outscoring them 35-10 in those 9 wins. The Rangers have a big goaltending edge with Lundquist and dominated the 3rd period of game game outscoring the Flyers 3-0 to take the momentum into game 2. The Rangers have won 14 of 15 when playing off 3+ games that went under and are 9-4 on Sundays. They have the #3 power play kill unit. Philly has lost 11 of 16 with 2 days rest and both recent times when trailing in a series and 6 of 9 in April. Look for the Rangers to make all Easter Parishioners happy as they take game 2. On Sunday end the week big as we have 2 Powerful NBA Power system plays one is 100%, their is the MLB Sunday night total of the Month, a 100% dog system and NHL. Jump on and end the week big. For the free Early play take the NY. Rangers. GC
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 1-game-nil @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 1-game-nil with site order H (New York Rangers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013
Game 2 record, NHL only, all rounds: 250-143 (.636)
Game 2 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 72-51 (.585)
