Service Plays Sunday 3/20/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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Some handicappers do not mind having their plays posted, If we are asked by any company to not let their information be posted here, we will comply with the request and remove the information if we see it.
For The Record.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To all services and professional handicappers. I am only going to be editing posts where your copyrighted write-ups are involved. Please do not email me if someone simply posts so and so likes xyz team plus or minus so many points only.
Thank you, wilheim.......

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****Please note we can post ONLY Picks for the services above - NO WRITE - UPS. All other services not on this list can be posted in any fashion. GL!​

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Funds

Sunday's Best NIT Bet

Wichita State Shockers at Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5, 129.5)

One of the Shockers’ best players is slumping.

Forward Ben Smith, the Missouri Valley Conference’s sixth man of the year, is averaging 5.2 points over his past five contests – about two points below his season average. More troubling, he has lost all semblance of an outside shot, making a mere 4 of his past 20 from beyond the arc.

"Lately, he has not played as well," Shockers coach Gregg Marshall acknowledged. "I don't know whether that's because people are concentrating on him because of the numbers he was putting up. I know he's got to play better than he has in the last several games for us to be successful."

Meantime, the Hokies have played well at home toward the end of the season. Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU and ATS in its past five games in Blacksburg. In the team’s most recent home contest, the Hokies pounded Bethune-Cookman 79-54, covering the 20.5-point spread.

“I’m not gonna lie to you and say I wanna be here,” Hokies star senior Malcolm Delaney said of the NIT. “But I play to win and our whole team has that same mindset. If we’re gonna be on the court, we’re gonna play to win.”

PICK: Virginia Tech

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' Roll

Sunday's Best NBA Bet

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks (-1, 197.5)

Carmelo Anthony owes the Knicks a check for his most recent game. The All-Star had just six points, four rebounds and two assists in 37 minutes; he finished 2 of 12 from the floor in a 99-95 loss to the Pistons.

To add insult to injury, Anthony also missed a late layup that could have tied the game. After the loss, he bolted for the team bus, but teammate Amar’e Stoudemire said it was the responsibility of all the players to work harder to execute their coach’s scheme.

"We've just got to buy into Mike D'Antoni's system," he said. "That's the way we're going to win. We've proven that it works with the team we had before the trade. And it can work with the guys we have now."

If there is one team for Anthony to get back on track against, it would be the Bucks. Melo is averaging 26.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists against Milwaukee this season. Equally important, his teams are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the Bucks.

"We've got to stress ball movement, especially early in the shot clock," D'Antoni said. "And I told them, at the end of the 24 seconds, that's where their superstardom comes into play. You get them the ball, they'll get you a shot. But before that we have to play as a team, move the ball and get to our spots."

PICK: Knicks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ICE PICKS

Sunday's Best NHL Bets

New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins (N/A)

Even if Henrik Lundqvist plays for the Rangers, he will most certainly be at less than 100 percent.

The team’s elite goalie has guided the squad to three straight wins, but suffered a neck injury late in a 6-3 victory over the Canadiens. With only three minutes remaining, Montreal’s Benoit Pouliot collided with the keeper of the crease, snapping his neck backwards.

Trainers attended to Lundqvist on the ice, who was able to finish the game. But afterward he sounded less than optimistic about his status for the game in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

“My head was leaning forward and I took a pretty hard hit there,” he said. “But we checked everything, X-rays were good, it’s just that my neck is very stiff and sore. We’ll see how it is when I wake up (Saturday) but I’m sure it will be sore for several days. My goal is to be ready for Sunday.”

On the other side, the Penguins have found ways to win despite scores of injuries to their most talented forwards. Pittsburgh is on a 4-1 run and is averaging 3.2 goals over that span. The Pens have notched five goals in each of their last two contests.

Lundqvist could aggravate his injury the way pucks may be flying past him Sunday afternoon.

PICK: Penguins


Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres (-140, 5)

It’s taken nearly half the season, but the Predators are finally scoring goals. Nashville is still averaging a mere 2.5 goals – fifth-fewest in the league – but that hasn’t been the case the past two weeks.

Nashville has scored at least four goals in three of its last four games. Not surprisingly, the team went 3-1. For the season, the Preds are a staggering 33-4-1 when topping the three-goal plateau.

The catalyst for the outburst has been the line of David Legwand-Martin Erat-Joel Ward. That unit has combined for five goals and eight assists during the four-game stretch.

“I just think me, Marty and Wardo are keeping things simple,” Legwand said. “That’s just the easiest way to play and go about it. Just keep things simple and work that way and go from there.”

Meanwhile, Buffalo has struggled to keep its net clear the past five games. The Sabres have coughed up 15 goals in their past five games. And even when they manage to lock down the opposition, like they did Tuesday against Carolina, they still come up short. The result: a 1-0 home loss.

PICK: Predators

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Betting Tips: Kobe Doesn't Practice, Vows To Play

Lines To Keep An Eye On

The North Carolina-Washington total opened at 155.5 and shot up to 158 or 158.5 at many books.

The Texas-Arizona total opened at 137 and has been bet up to 139.

Who’s Hot

NCAAB: The under is 8-2 in Duke’s last 10 games.

NCAAB: VCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog, and 6-0 ATS in its last six NCAA tournament games.

NCAAB: Marquette is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.

NBA: The Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on one day’s rest.

NBA: The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning percentages under .400.

NHL: The Coyotes are 7-2 in their last nine home games.

Who’s Not

NCAAB: Kansas is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games against the Big Ten.

NCAAB: Ohio State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 NCAA tournament games as a favorite.

NCAAB: North Carolina is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 after scoring 100 or more in its previous game.

NBA: The Hawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

NBA: The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference teams.

NHL: The Wild are 5-14 in their last 19 games playing on zero days’ rest.

Key Stat

North Carolina, which leads the nation in rebounding (42.5), usually has a massive edge on the glass over every opponent. But Sunday’s foe, the Washington Hukies, aren’t far behind, ranking 12th nationally at 39.3

Injuries That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Lakers star Kobe Bryant did not practice Saturday. He’s still hampered by a swollen left ankle, and now he's dealing with a sore neck from a Friday collision with Minnesota’s Martell Webster.

But Bryant assured reporters after Friday’s game that he’d play Sunday against Portland. “I’ll be ready, for sure, I promise you that,” Bryant said.

Meanwhile, it doesn’t look like Nets All-Star point guard Deron Williams (wrist) will play Sunday at Washington – he’s listed as doubtful -- and New Jersey is weighing its options going forward.

"Our options include Deron continuing to play, and we continue to treat him; other options may include just resting him for [Sunday's] game [at the Wizards], and maybe Monday [home against Indiana], or maybe shutting him down for three to five days and seeing if his wrist calms down a little bit,'' Nets coach Avery Johnson said Saturday in a conference call.

Williams aggravated his strained right wrist driving to the hoop in Friday’s 105-95 loss at Milwaukee. He shot 4 of 13 but still finished with 18 points and nine assists.

"I need to rest," Williams told the Bergen (N.J.) Record. "Until I do that, it's going to hurt and I'm going continue to be frustrated. This is affecting me so much mentally now. It's frustrating.”

Biggest Games On The Slate

Washington Huskies vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5, 158)

Michigan Wolverines vs. Duke Blue Devils (-11.5, 136)

Notable Quotable

“That’s the exciting part for me. A lot of the guys probably think I’m crazy.” – Texas forward Gary Johnson, a 6-6 senior who says he’s looking forward to guarding Arizona’s 6-8 All-American Derrick Williams in the NCAA tournament Sunday.

Tips And Notes

After going a sizzling 29-3 on the first two days of the NCAA tournament, President Barack Obama slumped to 5-3 Saturday, missing on Wisconsin, Butler and Richmond. For Sunday the President is picking one upset – Arizona over Texas – while going with favorites Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Purdue, Notre Dame, Kansas and Ohio State.

Florida got a major scare toward the end of its 73-65 win over UCLA when sophomore guard Kenny Boyton, the Gators’ second-leading scorer at 14.1 per game, landed awkwardly on Bruins center Josh Smith. Boynton stayed down for a few minutes and had to be helped to the locker room with what looked like a badly sprained ankle. But coach Billy Donovan afterward called the sprain a mild one, saying there was only a little swelling. Donovan said Boynton should be fine for Florida’s Sweet 16 game Thursday in New Orleans.

At last check, Illinois coach Bruce Weber said he had not decided whether key freshman Jereme Richmond will play Sunday against Kansas. Richmond was suspended for violating unspecified team rules and did not play in Friday’s win over UNLV. The 6-7 swingman averages 7.6 points and 5.0 rebounds in 22 minutes per game.

 

[Dr.T]

Red Dog Sports
49-25 in college BB (#1 at The Sports Monitor)

2* Prop play (Olympic)
Tyler Zeller -1 over Bryan-Amaning

In their last 3 games, Zeller has scored 32, 14 and 14 and shot 20-37 from the field while Bryan-Amaning has scored just 8, 9 and 6 points on 8-27 from the field. The game is being played in Charlotte, NC and Zeller is off a career high of 32 points. Zeller shoots 74% from the line while B-A is at 62%. Both averaged 15 ppg but Zeller -1 looks like a solid 2* wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 672-297 (.693)
ATS: 508-501 (.503)
ATS Vary Units: 1208-1235 (.494)
Over/Under: 522-504 (.509)
Over/Under Vary Units: 625-621 (.502)

New Jersey vs. WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ATLANTA 97, Detroit 90
New York vs. MILWAUKEE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
MINNESOTA 107, Sacramento 104
Phoenix vs. L.A. CLIPPERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
HOUSTON 110, Utah 101
OKLAHOMA CITY 113, Toronto 96
DALLAS 111, Golden State 100
L.A. LAKERS 98, Portland 88

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 319-253 (.558)

PITTSBURGH 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
BUFFALO 3, Nashville 2
New Jersey vs. COLUMBUS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
MINNESOTA 3, Montreal 2
Chicago vs. PHOENIX: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Calgary vs. ANAHEIM: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

[LarsonVonFuqua]

Double dragon ncaa tourney day 4

DOUBLE DRAGON NCAA TOURNEY DAY 4

TOP (2-2)
WASHINGTON +4 vs north carolina
MICHIGAN +11.5 vs duke
PURDUE -9 vs vcu
ILLINOIS +9 vs kansas

REGULAR (4-6)
OHIO STATE -10.5 vs george mason
TEXAS -5.5 vs arizona
MARQUETTE +5 vs syracuse
NOTRE DAME -5.5 vs florida state
SoumiSoumiSoumi

 

[Spence]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Morehead State ((+3-1/2) Saturday. Sunday it's Notre Dame.

The deficit is 535 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NCAA CBB

Season
Straight Up: 3841-1319 (.744)
ATS: 1787-1821 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 4961-5086 (.494)
Over/Under: 1769-1792 (.497)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2288-2449 (.483)

NCAA Tournament
3rd Round at BOK Center, Tulsa, OK
Kansas 78, Illinois 66
Texas 77, Arizona 71
3rd Round at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Syracuse 75, Marquette 69
Ohio State 72, George Mason 61
3rd Round at Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC
Duke 70, Michigan 61
North Carolina 82, Washington 78
3rd Round at United Center, Chicago, IL
Notre Dame 69, Florida State 64
Purdue 70, Vcu 60
National Invitation Tournament
2nd Round at campus sites
Kent State vs. FAIRFIELD: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VIRGINIA TECH 66, Wichita State 60

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

UNC
Michigan
Notre Dame

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Sunday

Oklahoma City -12.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

615 - 457 57 % Run over 2 1/2 YEARS !

Free winner SUN Syracuse -4 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Florida State vs. Notre Dame

The Seminoles look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as neutral site underdogs. Florida State is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Notre Dame favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's tournament games.
<table id="table3" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height: 38px; width: 566px;">SUNDAY, MARCH 20
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 719-720: Michigan vs. Duke (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 68.683; Duke 77.119
Dunkel Line: Duke by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+11 1/2)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 721-722: Washington vs. North Carolina (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 68.150; North Carolina 73.707
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-4)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 723-724: George Mason vs. Ohio State (5:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 63.527; Ohio State 78.345
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 15
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-11)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 725-726: Marquette vs. Syracuse (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 69.655; Syracuse 73.357
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 5
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (+5)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 727-728: Florida State vs. Notre Dame (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 71.544; Notre Dame 74.057
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+5 1/2)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 729-730: VCU vs. Purdue (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 60.666; Purdue 753.557
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 13
Vegas Line: Purdue by 9
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-9)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 731-732: Arizona vs. Texas (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 67.091; Texas 71.196
Dunkel Line: Texas by 4
Vegas Line: Texas by 6
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+6)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 733-734: Illinois vs. Kansas (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 65.775; Kansas 75.383
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-8 1/2)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 735-736: Wichita State at Virginia Tech (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 65.471; Virginia Tech 69.429
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 5
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+5)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="566">Game 737-738: Kent State at Fairfield (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 56.360; Fairfield 61.742
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 5
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-5)</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

Calgary at Anaheim

The Flames look to take advantage of an Anaheim team that is 8-22 in its last 30 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Calgary is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110). Here are all of today's picks.
<table id="table1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 564px;" height="17">SUNDAY, MARCH 20
Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 95px;">Game 1-2: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (12:030 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.393; Pittsburgh 12.878
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 95px;">Game 3-4: New Jersey at Columbus (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.061; Columbus 11.855
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+120); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 95px;">Game 5-6: Nashville at Buffalo (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.920; Buffalo 11.991
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+125); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 95px;">Game 7-8: Montreal at Minnesota (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.714; Minnesota 11.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 95px;">Game 9-10: Chicago at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.154; Phoenix 11.595
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-120); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 95px;">Game 11-12: Calgary at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.669; Anaheim 11.510
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110); Over</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Detroit at Atlanta

The Hawks look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is coming off a 99-95 win over the Knicks and is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games following an ATS win. Atlanta is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7). Here are all of today's picks.
<table cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 564px;" height="17">SUNDAY, MARCH 20
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 701-702: New Jersey at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 113.473; Washington 110.951
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 2 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 703-704: Detroit at Atlanta (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.385; Atlanta 123.391
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 190
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 705-706: New York at Milwaukee (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 119.005; Milwaukee 117.362
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+1); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 707-708: Phoenix at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 117.104; LA Clippers 113.419
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 709-710: Sacramento at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.462; Minnesota 115.386
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 711-712: Utah at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 111.591; Houston 126.165
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 14 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 713-714: Toronto at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 109.037; Oklahoma City 129.627
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 20 1/2; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 12 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-12 1/2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 715-716: Golden State at Dallas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 118.199; Dallas 124.122
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 9 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+9 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 717-718: Portland at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 116.890; LA Lakers 128.553
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

DUKE 68 - Michigan 62—Uh-oh, the rich just got richer. No, we’re not
talking about another round of Wall Street bonuses. We’re referring to defending
NCAA tourney champ Duke. It’s easy to forget that the Blue Devils lost their
leading scorer less than a month into this year’s campaign. After all, Duke still
won 30 games and yet another ACC tourney title even though scintillating frosh
G Kyrie Irving (team-best 17.4 ppg through the first eight) suffered an apparent
season-ending toe injury in early December. But, as if the Devils’ prospects for
a second straight title weren’t already bright enough, the quick-as-a-wink Irving
returned to action in Friday’s opener against Hampton. And the future NBA firstrounder
looked pretty sharp against the overmatched Pirates, scoring 14 points
in 20 minutes off the bench during the 87-45 blowout. So, with Duke now readding
Irving to an existing rotation that included do-it-all sr. G Nolan Smith, a
top national player-of-the-year candidate, versatile sr. F Kyle Singler, another
integral piece of last year’s championship run, plus maturing younger players
such as sharpshooting soph transfer Seth Curry (brother of Stephen, son of Dell
and our favorite Paul Abdul-lookalike Sonya) and 6-10 soph F Mason Plumlee,
what chance does young Michigan have against the big, bad Blue Devils?
Maybe not much when you add in a Charlotte venue friendly to Coach K’s
bunch. And, if the Wolverines get baited into an uptempo affair, they’ll probably
be blown away. Still, there’s reason to believe UM possesses the tactical
wherewithal to stay inside this roomy pointspread. Forget Friday’s 30-point romp
over troubled Tennessee. Survival for the Wolverines in this matchup depends
on their ability to execute crafty head coach John Beilein’s gameplan. IF soph
PG Darius Morris (6.7 apg), talented frosh Tim Hardaway Jr., and the other
Wolverine ballhandlers can maintain their composure against Duke’s defensive
pressure, Michigan should be able to generate some high-percentage shots in
their well-designed halfcourt sets. Taking proper of care of the rock will also help
the careful Wolverines (just 10 turnovers per game) limit the Devils’ transition
opportunities (they love to kick the ball out for wide-open threes on the
fastbreak). And when UM is able to get back and set up on a defense, the
tentacles of Beilein’s tricky 1-3-1 zone are usually quick to put the squeeze on
any open shooters. If this game mostly follows that scenario, we think the
Wolverines can, at the very least, make Krzyzewski and his Dookies sweat a little
before they move on to the Sweet 16. And let's not forget to mention the
delicious irony of this matchup just a week after the ESPN "Fab Five" special in
which ex-Wolverine Jales Rose made those controversial comments about the
Blue Devils, adding a bit more intrigue into the mix.

NORTH CAROLINA 89 - Washington 78—Acknowledge some of North
Carolina’s shortcomings over the past ten days, but the early posted spread for
this battle vs. Washington appears to be a bit of an overreaction to those efforts.
Granted, the Tar Heels started slowly in all of their ACC Tourney games last
week, which eventually cost them in the finale vs. high-powered and revengeminded
Duke. But we wouldn’t downgrade UNC too much for getting a bit
sloppy Friday night vs. go-go Long Island after Roy’s boys extended the lead to
21 points early in the second half. In the bigger picture, the Heels seemed to
work out most of last week’s kinks in their attack during that 102-point Friday
performance vs. the Blackbirds, and the anticipated brisk tempo of this matchup
vs. the Huskies (whose 84.2 ppg ranks third in the nation) figures to be
welcomed by the embarrassment of riches at UNC’s disposal.
Forgive us, too, for being reluctant to hop aboard any U-Dub bandwagon, as
the Huskies have been maddeningly inconsistent (far more than the Tar Heels)
all season, losing 7 games vs. a suspect Pac-10 slate, and being fortunate not
to gift away their own contest Friday vs. Georgia, almost squandering a late 10-
point lead due to missed FTs and turnovers. And the fundamental matchups vs.
UNC appear a bit troubling for Lorenzo Romar’s fast-paced crew.
Despite the raggedness of the final 15 minutes of Friday’s LIU game, the
Heels have mostly been taking much better care of the ball on the attack since
PG Larry Drew left the team in January and frosh diaper dandy Kendall Marshall
took over the on-court pilot chores. Assuming that Marshall and the capable Tar
Heel ballhandlers play to form, it’s doubtful that the Huskies can detonate their
transition game via the turnover route. And while the return of recentlysuspended
G Venoy Overton gives U-Dub a greater defensive presence on the
perimeter, we expect Husky bigs Matthew Bryan-Amaning and 7-0 soph Aziz
N’Diaye (figured to be employed more by Romar in this matchup) will be hardpressed
to deal with the Heels’ 1-2 frontline punch of 7-0 Tyler Zeller (14.6 ppg)
& 6-10 John Henson, with the latter’s presence on the stop end also likely
closing off the lane for any raids into the paint by Husky G Isaiah Thomas or the
UW wings. In conclusion, the Heels will welcome the chance to go uptempo, but
it’s their ability to better execute in the halfcourt game that will eventually allow
them to extend the margin.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

OHIO STATE 67 - George Mason 63—They’re back! We’re talking about
Jim Larranaga’s George Mason Patriots, who rediscovered some of their 2006
Final Four magic in Friday’s dramatic come-from-behind win over Villanova.
The GMU players (who broke out “We ARE this year’s George Mason!” t-shirts
after that 61-57 Friday win) have certainly embraced that March legacy. Now,
recalling 2006, will Larranaga be whistling the tune from the old TV series
Mission Impossible, as he did when walking into D.C.’s Verizon Center for the
East Regional final vs. heavy favorite UConn five years ago?
Sure, it’s a different Mason team from ’06, and top-seeded Ohio State, with
expected throaty regional support in Cleveland, is surely a greater challenge
than fading Villanova was 48 hours earlier. But we would not shortchange the
Patriots’ chances in this matchup. After all, higher-rated Colonial teams
continue to punch above their weight in March (witness Virginia
Commonwealth’s similar surge in the early rounds of the Dance). And we are
not completely convinced that the fundamental matchups are all that bad for the
Patriots against the Buckeyes.
Indeed, Villanova might have presented a more awkward assignment for
Larranaga’s defense with the ability of Jay Wright’s G tandem of Corey Fisher
and Corey Stokes to break down the opposition and attack the paint. But Thad
Matta’s OSU Gs go about their business a bit differently, mostly stationing
themselves on the perimeter and waiting for ball movement and screens to
provide openings from beyond the arc, where Jon Diebler (50% triples), William
Buford (44% treys), and David Lighty (40% three-balls) form an admittedly lethal
combination. Expect, however, the crafty Larranaga to go to school on the
handful of teams (Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue, in particular) that
mixed in variations of matchup-zone looks to fluster OSU’s squadron of
bombers. And it’s on defense where the Buckeye Gs leave something to be
desired, which should create opportunities for Larranaga’s electric backcourt
combo of Cam Long (15.3 ppg) and streak shooter Andre Cornelius to wreak
some havoc. As long as functional 6-9 Patriot C Mike Morrison avoids foul
trouble and keeps 6-9 OSU frosh man-child Jared Sullinger (17 ppg) somewhat
contained, there’s no reason GMU can’t at least threaten to author another
magical March run.

Marquette 74 - Syracuse 73—While both Big East squads are coming off
convincing DD victories in the newly-named “Round Two,” we’re more impressed
with Marquette’s dominating 66-55 win vs. a well-supported Xavier
squad that was squashed in its attempt for a 4th straight Sweet 16. Sure,
Syracuse is in revenge mode following its earlier 76-70 setback in Milwaukee in
late January. And, while Orange have adopted the motto “Unfinished Business”
after their Sweet 16 loss to Butler as the No. 1 seed a year ago (second straight
time bowing out in the regional semifinals), we still recommend chemistry-rich,
athletic, well-tutored Eagle squad.
A quick review. In that first meeting, Marquette went over and through coach
Boeheim’s trademark 2-3 zone, with the Golden Eagles’ terrific DD-scoring
triumverate of 6-2 G Darius Johnson-Odom, 6-7 swingman Jimmy Butler, and
6-6 F Jae Crowder, combining for 61 points and 16 rebounds. The Eagles had
23 hoops on 17 assists and hit 24 of 33 from foul line. So, it’s understandable
that Marquette is not lacking for confidence in the second meeting. “They know
us, and we know them, so it goes to who is going to get the stops,” Butler says.
“We gotta penetrate the zone that they run, do what we do to get plenty of
touches...and I think we can repeat what happened.”
Sure, the Orange zone (63 ppg) has tightened up since that defeat. But don’t
look for it doing a much better job vs. the finely-tuned, high-octane, sharpshooting
Eagle attack (77 ppg on 48% FGs), benefiting from improved PG play
from emerging 6-1 soph Junior Cadougan (3 apg in 19 mpg), who played only
10 minutes in the first clash. Look for Eagles’ defensive ace, the long-armed
Butler, to cool off any hot hand for the Orange after limiting the Muskies’
exceptional PG Tru Holloway (21 ppg) to a season-low 5 pts. (on 1 of 8 FGs!).
6-4 soph Syracuse G Brandon Triche (11 ppg) is still hit and miss with his shot
selection. And though formidable 6-9, 240-lb. jr. Orange F Ricky Jackson
scored a career-high 23 pts. vs. young, undersized Indiana State, don’t see him
going wild vs. Marquette’s active bigs, including 6-11 soph Chris Otule (5 ppg,
4 rpg, nearly 2 bpg), who should have a lot left in tank after fouling out in only 18
minutes vs. Xavier. Note that Buzz Williams’ highly-combative bunch has been
a highly-profitable underdog, going 13-3 its last 16 in that preferred role. Series
sweep by high-flying Golden Eagles no surprise.

★★★Florida State 67 - NOTRE DAME 62—These two schools had
established a fierce rivalry in football over the past few decades. Now, we have
an eagerly-anticipated matchup between offensively-potent Notre Dame (76
ppg) and defensively-excellent Florida State (62 ppg; nation-leading 36% FGs;
only 30% from tripleville). Yes, it’s the proverbial irresistible force vs. the
immovable object. And, while the well-balanced Irish (5 players avg. 9.7 ppg or
more) are having their finest season since 1973, competing in talent-rich Big
East (11 teams made this year’s NCAA field), we still prefer to take the points
with the Seminoles, who are back to full strength with return of 6-9 star F Chris
Singleton (5 pts. in 16 mins. vs. A&M in FSU’s tourney opener).
. The unconventional Irish “burn offense,” which sometimes “burns” 25 or
more seconds off the clock and uses a plethora of high-post screens, will
struggle to find many open looks vs. FSU’s smothering (and we do mean
smothering, just watch!) man-to-man defense that denies entry into the lane,
alters shots, and forces turnovers. There is NO guarantee that ND’s go-to scorer
and emotional leader, G Ben Hansbrough (18 ppg; only 7 of 23 FGs last two
games), snaps out of his mini-slump vs. the rangy, relentless, and tireless ‘Nole
Gs. Granted, the FSU attack (68 ppg) has endured its share of scoring dry spells.
But look for the quicker ‘Noles to get a slew of transition hoops vs. an Irish squad
not dominating on the offensive glass. With the aforementioned Singleton (14
ppg, 38% from arc, 7 rpg) shaking off the rust in the opening round, 26-year-old.,
6-10 F Bernard James (served 6 years with the Air Force; 10 points vs. the
Aggies) providing some post scoring, and with versatile 6-4 sr. G Derwin Kitchen
(10 ppg, 15 pts., 2 of 4 from arc vs. A&M) shooting with confidence, believe
Leonard Hamilton’s bunch can spring a minor upset despite ND enjoying greater
fan support in Chicago. Keep in mind, the ‘Noles had nine players see 11 or more
minutes on Friday, while ND used only 6 players in its 69-56 non-covering win vs.
Akron. Plus, the ACC rep got nice lift off the bench from highly-regarded 6-3 frosh
G Ian Miller, who had 7 pts. & 5 boards in season-high 27 minutes vs. the Aggies.

Purdue 67 - Virginia Commonwealth 63—Third game in five days for VCU,
which had to beat Southern Cal in an at-large “First Four” game in Dayton on
Wednesday just to get the right to meet Georgetown Friday. So far, no problem.
Two victories. And, after seeing Connecticut win five games and five days last
week to capture the Big East Tourney, is anyone thinking that the 3-in-5
scheduling, in and of itself, will be enough to doom the veteran Rams? No, it
would have to be a dominating defensive performance such as the one Purdue
laid on Saint Peter’s Peacocks, who are doing precious little strutting after hitting
only 29% FGs in their Friday loss to the Boilermakers by a final score of 65-43
(Purdue led 33-17 at the half and cruised home).
Of concern for Purdue, however, is that only six Boilers scored in that win
over the Peacocks, despite the blowout. Purdue’s big three of C JaJuan
Johnson, G E’Twaun Moore, and PG Lewis Jackson scored 47 of the 65 Boiler
points; the rest of the team only 18.
That’s not too intimidating for a hot VCU team with its own high-scoring big
man in 6-9 Jamie Skeen (15 ppg), a quick sr. PG in Joey Rodriguez (10.5, 4.8
apg), and its plethora of mid-sized, athletic, three-point gunners (six Rams have
already nailed three-balls so far in the tourney, including sr. marksman Brandon
Rozzell, with 8 of 13 triples off the bench). Although he will be out-classed by
Johnson, the Rams will be able to use 7-0 frosh D.J. Haley from time to time vs.
the Boilers’ star. VCU is 8-4 as a dog TY, and the Colonial conference has so
far more than proved its worthiness in the tourney, with George Mason dumping
Villanova and ODU losing to Butler due to an unlikely, last-play, rebound of a
rebound of a wild pitch at the backboard. Rams’ coach Smart has proven to be
just that so far this postseason, going 4-1 SU, with VCU’s only loss by 5 points
to Old Dominion in the Colonial final.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

Texas 71 - Arizona 61—These two perennial NCAA tourney participants
(OK, U of A did miss out last year for the first time since 1984) enter this clash
with identical 28-7 straight-up records. But, even though the Pac-10’s three Big
Dance reps (not counting USC) all advanced out of the first round, we can’t help
but be more impressed by Texas’ body of work over the course of the campaign.
The Longhorns went 13-3 straight-up in the tougher Big XII (including a victory
at Kansas that snapped the Jayhawks’ 69-game home win streak!), and UT
finished the regular season 18-8 vs. the pointspread. Meanwhile, Arizona went
14-4 straight up but just 7-11 vs. the line during its regular conference campaign
against a mostly mediocre field of Pac-10 entrants. And Friday’s close (noncovering)
opening-round victory over baby-faced Memphis did little to assuage
our skepticism about how good Sean Miller’s underachieving Wildcats really are.
Yes, U of A has one of the best and most versatile offensive threats in the
nation in 6-8 soph Derrick Williams (19.2 ppg on 61% FGs & 8.2 rpg this season;
22 & 10 in the victory over the Tigers). But the Wildcats lack other reliable options
on the attack end, streaky soph G Momo Jones’ 18 points vs. Memphis
notwithstanding. And, more importantly, the Wildcats’ “bigs” (including Williams)
continue to be very slow to rotate on defense, repeatedly allowing the Tiger
Gs unimpeded forays to the hoop. That spells trouble against a Longhorn squad
that has the quickness & athleticism to attack the rim from all over the floor. Sure,
Rick Barnes’ bunch is a little young in the backcourt with frosh Cory Joseph &
J’Covan Brown playing key roles. But those two are among five double-digit
scorers for the well-balanced UT attack, while Williams is the only major point
producer for U of A (although Jones is just a tick below 10 ppg at 9.8). And MUCH
prefer the Longhorns’ work ethic on the defensive end, especially with 6-8 frosh
jumping jack Tristan Thompson (seven blocks in Friday’s opening victory over
Oakland!) altering shots in the paint, and pugnacious Turkish G Dogus Balbay
ready to douse any hot hand that might emerge for the Wildcats on the perimeter.

Kansas 73 - Illinois 69—The Illini must be thinking they will have to face
all of their former coaches in order to get to the Final Four. Illinois, with its four
senior starters, easily took care of UNLV and former Illini mentor Lon Kruger in
its initial game this week. Now, Illinois must deal with Bill Self, who coached in
Champaign-Urbana from 2000-2003 before being offered a “bigger job” at
Kansas. Another sidelight to this game is that Self and the the Jayhawks were
eliminated in their second tourney game last season in a memorable upset at the
hands of upstart Northern Iowa and its fearless little G, Ali Farokhmanesh.
While Kansas seems well-equipped for a deep sojourn in the tourney in
2011, this matchup does not figure to be easy, even though the veteran Illini have
been wildly inconsistent this season, driving even their most ardent followers up
the wall in frustration. Among other things, 20-13 Illinois is 4-8 vs. the spread
after a victory since the start of December. And the Illini couldn’t win even a
single game in the Big Ten Tournament, losing in the quarterfinals to Michigan.
Still, there are some elements that seem to give this underdog a chance,
considering the early spread of 8½. This year’s Kansas team is not Self’s
quickest, nor his biggest. And veteran Illinois is well-drilled, taking good shots
(47% FGs), while hitting its treys (39%) and its FTs (73%). The Illini usually play
conscientious defense (40% opponents’ FGs), and they have a 6-9, 6-9, 7-1 front
line to keep KU’s formidable Morris twins of Marcus & Markieff from going wild.
Sr. PG Demetri McCamey (14.9 ppg, 6.1 apg, 46% triples) seems to have refocused
after coach Bruce Weber criticized him at midseason for losing
concentration, with thoughts of his NBA future dancing in his head. 6-9 sr. F Mike
Davis matched his season high with 22 points in Illinois’ ridiculously easy 73-62
victory over UNLV Friday (the Rebels were down 22 at the half). Moreover, with
all the motion offenses the Illini see in the Big Ten, KU’s high-low motion attack,
featuring the Morris twins (a combined 31 ppg, 15.5 rpg) should provide few
tactical mysteries. The talent level will be a factor, however. But if inconsistent
Illinois can hit something close to its season-long shooting percentages and
keep deeper Kansas mostly in the half-court, the Illini should make the Jayhawks
plenty nervous.