Bob Balfe
Sunday NCAA Comp Picks
February 16th 2014
Michigan -4 over Wisconsin
Michigan is a great home team and already got the better of the Badgers this year in Wisconsin. The Badgers looked great until they hit a slump losing 5 of 6, but now have rebounded. This team plays very well, but I don’t think they have the ability to beat the top half of the Big 10 when on the road. When Michigan gets hot being the 3 point line they are one of the best teams in the country. Take Michigan.
Colorado -3 over USC
It is obvious Colorado is not the same team without Dinwiddle, but this USC team is brutal. The Trojans have won only one game in this year of 2014. USC is just not in the same class as the Buffs. The Pac 12 is a good conference, but the bottom feeders are years behind talent wise. Colorado should have no problem winning this one. Take the Buffs.
Sunday NCAA Comp Picks
February 16th 2014
Michigan -4 over Wisconsin
Michigan is a great home team and already got the better of the Badgers this year in Wisconsin. The Badgers looked great until they hit a slump losing 5 of 6, but now have rebounded. This team plays very well, but I don’t think they have the ability to beat the top half of the Big 10 when on the road. When Michigan gets hot being the 3 point line they are one of the best teams in the country. Take Michigan.
Colorado -3 over USC
It is obvious Colorado is not the same team without Dinwiddle, but this USC team is brutal. The Trojans have won only one game in this year of 2014. USC is just not in the same class as the Buffs. The Pac 12 is a good conference, but the bottom feeders are years behind talent wise. Colorado should have no problem winning this one. Take the Buffs.
DAVID BANKS
NCAAB
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Boston College Eagles
There is a rematch from two weeks ago in the ACC on ESPNU on Sunday evening
when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-12, 7-14-2 ATS), who won the first
meeting in overtime at home, this time visit the Boston College Eagles (6-18,
7-14-1 ATS) at Conte Forum at 6:00 ET. The Irish won the February 1st
encounter 76-73 at South Bend before losing back-to-back games vs. excellent
competition in Syracuse and North Carolina. Notre Dame then bounced back, again
requiring extra time in a double-overtime home win over Clemson on Tuesday.
That first meeting between these teams also began a four-game losing streak
for Boston College, which is second to last in the ACC with a 2-9 conference
mark, leading only 1-10 Virginia Tech.
Now some may be inclined to believe that since the Eagles took the Irish to
overtime on the road, they should be able to put Notre Dame away here at
Chestnut Hill. While that may or may not happen, look no further than Boston
College's 6-18 record to get an idea of the difficulty they have had closing
out games, so that close loss was actually par for the course for this team
and doing the same thing at home would not be a major surprise either. Yes,
the Eagles are a game team that probably has more ability than its record as
Boston College is actually an excellent 24th in the country in offensive
efficiency, which is not typical of a 6-18 team. However, the Eagles' record
and their inability to close out games become more understandable when
looking at their defense, which is simply not good enough to make stops
consistently enough to win games, especially at "crunch time". The numbers on that end
of the court are just plain ugly, as Boston College is ranked 316th in
defensive efficiency, 290th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 342nd
out of 351 Division I teams in defensive turnover percentage! Add that all
up and you get a team allowing 74.6 points per game on 46.7 percent shooting
overall.
The Irish are not a great team this season by any means, but they still
have a winning record and have beaten some quality teams, most significantly
Duke along with Indiana and then Clemson last game. Notre Dame is ranked 59th
in offensive efficiency, which while not as high as Boston College's ranking
should still be good enough given the how generous the Eagles' defense has
been. Besides, the small edge Boston College may have on offense could be
offset by the bigger disparity between these teams on defense. That is not to
say that Notre Dame has been suffocating by any means while ranking 152nd on
defensive efficiency, but that is still above average as the Irish grade
out allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions compared to a national average
of 104.4 points. Notre Dame also ranks 17th nationally in defensive
rebounding percentage, which should limit the Eagles' second chance opportunities and
thus limit their opportunities to extend possessions in an attempt to
lessen the exposure of their defense.
Boston College is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams with winning
straight up records and 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Notre Dame is 4-1
ATS in its last five games following a straight up win. Yet Boston opens a favorite! Trap!
PICK: BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES-1
NCAAB
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Boston College Eagles
There is a rematch from two weeks ago in the ACC on ESPNU on Sunday evening
when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-12, 7-14-2 ATS), who won the first
meeting in overtime at home, this time visit the Boston College Eagles (6-18,
7-14-1 ATS) at Conte Forum at 6:00 ET. The Irish won the February 1st
encounter 76-73 at South Bend before losing back-to-back games vs. excellent
competition in Syracuse and North Carolina. Notre Dame then bounced back, again
requiring extra time in a double-overtime home win over Clemson on Tuesday.
That first meeting between these teams also began a four-game losing streak
for Boston College, which is second to last in the ACC with a 2-9 conference
mark, leading only 1-10 Virginia Tech.
Now some may be inclined to believe that since the Eagles took the Irish to
overtime on the road, they should be able to put Notre Dame away here at
Chestnut Hill. While that may or may not happen, look no further than Boston
College's 6-18 record to get an idea of the difficulty they have had closing
out games, so that close loss was actually par for the course for this team
and doing the same thing at home would not be a major surprise either. Yes,
the Eagles are a game team that probably has more ability than its record as
Boston College is actually an excellent 24th in the country in offensive
efficiency, which is not typical of a 6-18 team. However, the Eagles' record
and their inability to close out games become more understandable when
looking at their defense, which is simply not good enough to make stops
consistently enough to win games, especially at "crunch time". The numbers on that end
of the court are just plain ugly, as Boston College is ranked 316th in
defensive efficiency, 290th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 342nd
out of 351 Division I teams in defensive turnover percentage! Add that all
up and you get a team allowing 74.6 points per game on 46.7 percent shooting
overall.
The Irish are not a great team this season by any means, but they still
have a winning record and have beaten some quality teams, most significantly
Duke along with Indiana and then Clemson last game. Notre Dame is ranked 59th
in offensive efficiency, which while not as high as Boston College's ranking
should still be good enough given the how generous the Eagles' defense has
been. Besides, the small edge Boston College may have on offense could be
offset by the bigger disparity between these teams on defense. That is not to
say that Notre Dame has been suffocating by any means while ranking 152nd on
defensive efficiency, but that is still above average as the Irish grade
out allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions compared to a national average
of 104.4 points. Notre Dame also ranks 17th nationally in defensive
rebounding percentage, which should limit the Eagles' second chance opportunities and
thus limit their opportunities to extend possessions in an attempt to
lessen the exposure of their defense.
Boston College is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams with winning
straight up records and 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Notre Dame is 4-1
ATS in its last five games following a straight up win. Yet Boston opens a favorite! Trap!
PICK: BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES-1
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
CBB NIAGARA at MANHATTAN
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MANHATTAN) average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
207-124 since 1997. ( 62.5% 70.6 units )
32-22 this year. ( 59.3% 7.8 units )
CBB MINNESOTA at NORTHWESTERN
Play Against - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game
111-28 since 1997. ( 79.9% 51.5 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -4.4 units )
CBB SMU at TEMPLE
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TEMPLE) after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival, in February games
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -2.3 units )
CBB NIAGARA at MANHATTAN
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MANHATTAN) average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
207-124 since 1997. ( 62.5% 70.6 units )
32-22 this year. ( 59.3% 7.8 units )
CBB MINNESOTA at NORTHWESTERN
Play Against - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game
111-28 since 1997. ( 79.9% 51.5 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -4.4 units )
CBB SMU at TEMPLE
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TEMPLE) after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival, in February games
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -2.3 units )
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee lost his three team six point teaser in college basketball on Saturday .
(1) Oaklahoma from +3 to +9/Oaklahoma State (W) outright
(2) George Washington from -5 to +1/Massachusetts (L)
(3) Richmond from -10 to -4/Fordham (W)
For Sunday E&B like SMU -7/Temple in college basketball.
Ecks and Bacon is 1-2 -$60 for week sixteen 54-70-2 -$1558.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee lost his three team six point teaser in college basketball on Saturday .
(1) Oaklahoma from +3 to +9/Oaklahoma State (W) outright
(2) George Washington from -5 to +1/Massachusetts (L)
(3) Richmond from -10 to -4/Fordham (W)
For Sunday E&B like SMU -7/Temple in college basketball.
Ecks and Bacon is 1-2 -$60 for week sixteen 54-70-2 -$1558.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Wichita State goes from Cinderella to public favorite
Wichita State has exploded on the college basketball scene, making a run to the Final Four last March before returning this season as one of the best teams in the nation.
The Shockers are a perfect 26-0 and, after sweeping their closest rivals in the Indiana State Sycamores recently, there’s a good chance that WSU will end Missouri Valley Conference play undefeated.
The Shockers put that unblemished mark on the line against Evansville as 13-point road favorites Sunday.
Wichita State hasn’t just seen a rise in national profile. The Shockers have also seen an increase in popularity amongst bettors, who have jumped on WSU much like the way the public did with popular mid-major programs like Gonzaga, Butler and VCU following their NCAA tournament success.
Mike Perry of Sportsbook says the Shockers have seen large increases in action since rolling to 26-0, but that the public was slow to pile on the bandwagon after their Final Four appearance last year.
"We do get a lot more action on Wichita State, around two to three times more volume on their games than in previous years,” Perry. “They started to get most of their action when people started paying attention to their undefeated streak after posting a nice road win at Saint Louis (in December)."
With Wichita State holding a 16-6-1 ATS record (8-1 ATS on the road), bettors have more than enough incentive to bet on the Shockers.
Perry says that even with their strong ATS record and newfound popularity, oddsmakers are treating Wichita State like they treat any other team, regardless of status.
"We book WSU like any other team, look at what line makes the sense to try and draw two-way action," he says.
Wichita State has exploded on the college basketball scene, making a run to the Final Four last March before returning this season as one of the best teams in the nation.
The Shockers are a perfect 26-0 and, after sweeping their closest rivals in the Indiana State Sycamores recently, there’s a good chance that WSU will end Missouri Valley Conference play undefeated.
The Shockers put that unblemished mark on the line against Evansville as 13-point road favorites Sunday.
Wichita State hasn’t just seen a rise in national profile. The Shockers have also seen an increase in popularity amongst bettors, who have jumped on WSU much like the way the public did with popular mid-major programs like Gonzaga, Butler and VCU following their NCAA tournament success.
Mike Perry of Sportsbook says the Shockers have seen large increases in action since rolling to 26-0, but that the public was slow to pile on the bandwagon after their Final Four appearance last year.
"We do get a lot more action on Wichita State, around two to three times more volume on their games than in previous years,” Perry. “They started to get most of their action when people started paying attention to their undefeated streak after posting a nice road win at Saint Louis (in December)."
With Wichita State holding a 16-6-1 ATS record (8-1 ATS on the road), bettors have more than enough incentive to bet on the Shockers.
Perry says that even with their strong ATS record and newfound popularity, oddsmakers are treating Wichita State like they treat any other team, regardless of status.
"We book WSU like any other team, look at what line makes the sense to try and draw two-way action," he says.
