PsychicSportsPicks.com
Private Members Area
12/28
PSYCHIC
2 units Houston -2.5
2 units Denver +9
3 units Dallas -1.5
5 units New York Jets -2.5
Wiseguy
DA STICK
5 units Louisiana Tech -1
100 units New York Jets -2.5
QUICK REALITY CHECK
THE AVERAGE JOE PUBLIC IS IN LOVE WITH MIAMI. THEY ARE FEEL GOOD STORY.
THE AVERAGE JOE PUBLIC THINKS THE JETS ARE FINISHED AND FAVRE SHOULD RETIRE
BUT WAIT DO NOT FORGET
THIS IS WHAT BRETT FAVRE DOES
HE RIPS YOUR HEART OUT BUT THEN WHEN YOU DOUBT HIM - YOU FIRE HIM UP - HE IS A STREAKY QUARTERBACK
HE WILL RESPOND THIS WEEK BECAUSE A FACT
HE IS STILL THE BETTER QUARTERBACK
AND THE JETS ARE AT HOME
PENNINGTON WINNING IN NEW YORK SOUNDS LIKE STRAIGHT OUT OF A FRICKEN DISNEY MOVIE
THIS IS NOT DISNEY - THIS IS THE NFL AND THERE IS MONEY INVOLVED
THE JETS ABSOLUTELY OWN THE DOLPHINS - NOTHING CHANGES - RECENT RESULTS
NYJ 20 MIA 14
NYJ 40 MIA 13
MIA 28 NYJ 31
NYJ 13 MIA 10
MIA 17 NYJ 20
NYJ 20 MIA 24
MIA 7 NYJ 17
MIA 14 NYJ 41
NYJ 17 MIA 9
MIAMI HAS NOT COVERED THE LAST 10
NY JETS ARE 9-0-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD
WHO HAS MIAMI REALLY BEATEN?
THEY CAUGHT NEW ENGLAND OFF GUARD AND SAN DIEGO WHEN THEY WERE PLAYING LIKE SHIT
LOOK AT RECENT WINS
KANSAS CITY
SAN FRANCISCO
BUFFALO
ST LOUIS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
ANYTHING IMPRESSIVE IN THE ABOVE WINS
JETS ARE BACK AT HOME
DOLPHINS ALREADY HAD GREAT SEASON
JETS NEED A WIN OR ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOOSE
JETS 4-1 AGAINST AFC EAST, 5-2 AT HOME
THE NEW ENGLAND GAME MAKES NO DIFFERENCE WITH THIS PLAY
BALTIMORE PLAYS AT 4:00 PM AND A JETS WIN, BALTIMORE LOSS CAN GET THEM IN - BECAUSE OF THIS THERE WILL BE NO LETDOWN. THEY WILL BE FOCUSED
PLAY THE JETS AND THANK ME TOMORROW
THIS IS MY NFL GAME OF THE CENTURY
Private Members Area
12/28
PSYCHIC
2 units Houston -2.5
2 units Denver +9
3 units Dallas -1.5
5 units New York Jets -2.5
Wiseguy
DA STICK
5 units Louisiana Tech -1
100 units New York Jets -2.5
QUICK REALITY CHECK
THE AVERAGE JOE PUBLIC IS IN LOVE WITH MIAMI. THEY ARE FEEL GOOD STORY.
THE AVERAGE JOE PUBLIC THINKS THE JETS ARE FINISHED AND FAVRE SHOULD RETIRE
BUT WAIT DO NOT FORGET
THIS IS WHAT BRETT FAVRE DOES
HE RIPS YOUR HEART OUT BUT THEN WHEN YOU DOUBT HIM - YOU FIRE HIM UP - HE IS A STREAKY QUARTERBACK
HE WILL RESPOND THIS WEEK BECAUSE A FACT
HE IS STILL THE BETTER QUARTERBACK
AND THE JETS ARE AT HOME
PENNINGTON WINNING IN NEW YORK SOUNDS LIKE STRAIGHT OUT OF A FRICKEN DISNEY MOVIE
THIS IS NOT DISNEY - THIS IS THE NFL AND THERE IS MONEY INVOLVED
THE JETS ABSOLUTELY OWN THE DOLPHINS - NOTHING CHANGES - RECENT RESULTS
NYJ 20 MIA 14
NYJ 40 MIA 13
MIA 28 NYJ 31
NYJ 13 MIA 10
MIA 17 NYJ 20
NYJ 20 MIA 24
MIA 7 NYJ 17
MIA 14 NYJ 41
NYJ 17 MIA 9
MIAMI HAS NOT COVERED THE LAST 10
NY JETS ARE 9-0-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD
WHO HAS MIAMI REALLY BEATEN?
THEY CAUGHT NEW ENGLAND OFF GUARD AND SAN DIEGO WHEN THEY WERE PLAYING LIKE SHIT
LOOK AT RECENT WINS
KANSAS CITY
SAN FRANCISCO
BUFFALO
ST LOUIS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
ANYTHING IMPRESSIVE IN THE ABOVE WINS
JETS ARE BACK AT HOME
DOLPHINS ALREADY HAD GREAT SEASON
JETS NEED A WIN OR ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOOSE
JETS 4-1 AGAINST AFC EAST, 5-2 AT HOME
THE NEW ENGLAND GAME MAKES NO DIFFERENCE WITH THIS PLAY
BALTIMORE PLAYS AT 4:00 PM AND A JETS WIN, BALTIMORE LOSS CAN GET THEM IN - BECAUSE OF THIS THERE WILL BE NO LETDOWN. THEY WILL BE FOCUSED
PLAY THE JETS AND THANK ME TOMORROW
THIS IS MY NFL GAME OF THE CENTURY
Doug Williams
The Picks:
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) Over Cleveland Browns (+10.5) -- Yep. I don't care if the 8th string Defense is in for the Steelers. The Browns haven't scored an offensive touchdown in over a month, and Phil Dawson can't kick that many field goals. This will be a route. Good bye Romeo Crennel.
San Diego Chargers (-8) Over Denver Broncos (+8) -- I think Philip Rivers is going to win this one all on his own. I hate the guy, but he's playing great football, and somehow these Chargers are going to sneak into the playoffs thanks the a crappy division.
Tennessee Titans (-3) Over Indianapolis Colts (+3) -- The Colts have the Wildcard clinched. If history can teach us anything, it's that Tony Dungy likes to rest his starters before the playoffs. Jim Sorgi is terrible and definitely doesn't have what it takes to beat the Titans (did you see last year's game?). Ouch.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) Over Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) -- Failure: see Tony Romo in December. The Eagles are due for a bounce back after that game against the Redskins last week, and the 'boys just can't get it done this time of year.
The Picks:
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) Over Cleveland Browns (+10.5) -- Yep. I don't care if the 8th string Defense is in for the Steelers. The Browns haven't scored an offensive touchdown in over a month, and Phil Dawson can't kick that many field goals. This will be a route. Good bye Romeo Crennel.
San Diego Chargers (-8) Over Denver Broncos (+8) -- I think Philip Rivers is going to win this one all on his own. I hate the guy, but he's playing great football, and somehow these Chargers are going to sneak into the playoffs thanks the a crappy division.
Tennessee Titans (-3) Over Indianapolis Colts (+3) -- The Colts have the Wildcard clinched. If history can teach us anything, it's that Tony Dungy likes to rest his starters before the playoffs. Jim Sorgi is terrible and definitely doesn't have what it takes to beat the Titans (did you see last year's game?). Ouch.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) Over Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) -- Failure: see Tony Romo in December. The Eagles are due for a bounce back after that game against the Redskins last week, and the 'boys just can't get it done this time of year.
NFL Week 17 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (26-21 = 55.3%)
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Time to "buy low and sell high." A few weeks ago, some people were picking the Jets to be the AFC representative in the Superbowl. Since the Jets' big win at Tennessee five games ago, the Jets have limped to a 1-3 record. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have put together a four-game winning streak and are tied with New England atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the Jets. The Jets looked bad last week against the lowly Seahawks while the Dolphins scored 38 points in defeating KC. Time to buy the Jets at a recent "low" and sell the Dolphins at a "peak."
The "sharps" also feel that there is good value on the New York Jets. The line opened at CRIS at Jets -2.5. The majority of bets -- especially teasers and parlays -- are on Miami, but the line has ticked up to the "key three number." There are still some 2.5's available that we would grab ASAP.
Many of the Dolphins' wins this year have been by just a few points. They beat the teams they should -- but don't seem to be as good as their 10-5 record. On the other hand, the Jets have been underperforming lately. Overall, we believe that the Jets are a better team, so we like giving less than a FG at home.
New York Jets -2.5
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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Time to "buy low and sell high." A few weeks ago, some people were picking the Jets to be the AFC representative in the Superbowl. Since the Jets' big win at Tennessee five games ago, the Jets have limped to a 1-3 record. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have put together a four-game winning streak and are tied with New England atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the Jets. The Jets looked bad last week against the lowly Seahawks while the Dolphins scored 38 points in defeating KC. Time to buy the Jets at a recent "low" and sell the Dolphins at a "peak."
The "sharps" also feel that there is good value on the New York Jets. The line opened at CRIS at Jets -2.5. The majority of bets -- especially teasers and parlays -- are on Miami, but the line has ticked up to the "key three number." There are still some 2.5's available that we would grab ASAP.
Many of the Dolphins' wins this year have been by just a few points. They beat the teams they should -- but don't seem to be as good as their 10-5 record. On the other hand, the Jets have been underperforming lately. Overall, we believe that the Jets are a better team, so we like giving less than a FG at home.
New York Jets -2.5
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Cajun-Sports NFL Executive- Sunday
Time / Date: 4:15 PM EST / Sunday December 28 (FOX) (DirecTV716)
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:10 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 61, Scattered Showers, Wind SW 22 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -1
Analysis:
Lincoln Financial Stadium will be the site of today’s NFC clash between the host Philadelphia Eagles and the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are fighting for a playoff berth as the Cowboys win and their in but the Eagles will require a win and some serious help.
Before the Cowboys loss to Baltimore they had been playing well even with a close loss at Pittsburgh and defeating the Giants the week prior. Their defense had been carrying this team and they looked strong.
The loss to the Ravens seemed to expose the fact that they are a tired and battered team after a tough three-game span. As far as defenses go the Cowboys played a murderous row in those three games.
The Eagles enter today’s contest off a road favorite loss to the Washington Redskins last week. They wouldn’t be in this shape had they been able to dispose of the Skins but they were unable to do so and here they are in a must win situation.
Philly is also playing with revenge for a 41 to 37 loss to Dallas on Monday Night Football. We note that the Eagles are a solid 44-28 ATS playing with revenge. Dallas head man Wade Philips teams have struggled when playing into division revenge posting a 0-6 ATS record in that situation.
This game features a very strong home/away point differential and it favors the host as they have averaged 34 points per game their last four home games while the Boys have not scored more than 14 points in their last four on the highway. The Philly defense is ranked 3rd in the league and will hold nothing back here against a shaky Tony Romo.
Not only does their QB struggle in the month of December but the whole Boys team has found the going tough during the last month of the regular season. They are only 7-21 SU on the road during the month of December and have a record of 6-22 ATS. The Cowboys are 8-25 ATS after Thanksgiving when facing teams with a winning record. Dallas is also 0-10 ATS during the month of December when on the highway and facing a winning team.
Data base research has uncovered several league wide systems that are active for today’s contest. In Games 15-16, play ON a +.500% division home team (not a
favorite of 7+ points or underdog of 4+ points ) not off a home favorite SU win
scoring 37+ points in its last game vs. an opponent with a better record, 18-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by more than 13 points per game. In Game 16, play ON a home team (not a favorite of 2+ points or an underdog of more than 2 points) with a TOTAL under 43 points, 17-0 ATS. Play ON a division home team (not a favorite of 3+ points) with a TOTAL of 37½-45 points off a non-Monday road favorite SU loss in its last game vs. an opponent not off a non-conference SU loss of 10+ points in its last game, 20-0 ATS. From Week 11 on, play ON a non-Saturday team seeking revenge for a SU loss, allowing 41+ points in the first matchup 3+ games ago, 14-0 ATS.
With the home field advantage, strong fundamental, situational and technical support we will make the Eagles our 5* NFL Game of the Week Selection.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -1
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday December 28 (CBS DirecTV 706)
Game: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:15 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 26, Cloudy, Wind WSW 39 MPH Gusts up to 60 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 4* Buffalo Bills +6
Analysis:
Ralph Wilson Stadium will be the site of today’s clash between the host Buffalo Bills and the visiting New England Patriots.
The Patriots are fighting to claim a playoff spot and even if they win here today they still need some help to get into the playoffs. The line today reflects the fact that this is a must win situation for the visitor. The line when these two teams met earlier this season at Foxboro was only 3.5 in favor of the Patriots, now on the road they are almost a touchdown favorite.
The Bills enter this contest after going into Denver and pulling off the upset win, with nothing to play for other than pride. We know that home teams in their last home game of the season in this situation have been money in the bank winning well over 75% of the time.
We also note that NFL teams like the Patriots coming in off two huge blowout victories in their last two games are active in a letdown situation that has won the money over 70% of the time.
Teams coming off a SU win and going “Over” in their last game and are now installed as a road favorite are 199-252-15 ATS. If they are playing against a conference opponent the record is 153-192-10 ATS. NFL teams that won ATS at home in their last game and are now installed as a road favorite are 76-105-4 ATS. If the current game has a line range of 3 to 7 points the record is 41-63 ATS.
It may appear to some that since the Bills are out of the playoffs they have nothing to play for, I think they put that thought to rest last week with their big win in the Mile High City. They are playing a heated rival and have a chance to knock them out of the playoffs after taking it on the chin from the Patriots over the last several Decembers.
Finally the Patriots are active in one of our NFL Systems that tells us to Play AGAINST a road favorite of less than 7 points with a TOTAL of 38+ points off a non-conference home SU & ATS win as a favorite of 7+ points last week, 21-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by more than 10 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Buffalo Bills +6
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday December 28 (CBS DirecTV 718)
Game: Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Line Origin: BetCris @ 10:14 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 57, Scattered Showers, Wind SW 15 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 4* New York Jets -2.5
Analysis:
Giants Stadium will be the site of todays clash between the host New York Jets and the visiting Miami Dolphins. Both teams are playing for a playoff berth, Miami wins and they are in but the Jets will need a little help.
The Dolphins are the most improved team in the NFL and it’s hard to believe they could actually win the division with a win over the Jets here today. Even though they have been playing extremely well this is a tall order to go on the road in December and defeat a Jets team at home.
They always say defense wins championships but we know you must be able to run the football in December to advance. This Jets team has done an outstanding job of rushing the football with 128 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. The Jets defense has held opponents to 92 yards rushing per game on 3.7 yards per carry.
New York’s rushing differential triggers one of our statistical indicators that has a record of 154-78 ATS. They also qualify in a subset of this indicator that has a record of 44-9 ATS!
Technical sets also tell us that Miami is 3-13 ATS on the road from Game 13 on when facing teams with a winning record. Miami after winning at least their last two games have posted a record of 43-64 ATS. If the Fins won on the road in their last game they are 31-51 ATS in the following game. Dolphins are 73-101-8 ATS facing a division opponent and if they are off a SU win in their last game that record is 33-61-2 ATS. If that win came on the highway the Fins are 31-51 ATS in their next game.
The Jets off a SU loss in their last game and now face a division opponent are 53-28 ATS. If they lost SU and ATS the record is 51-29 ATS. If the Jets lost SU and went “Under” in their last game they are 29-6 ATS if they are now playing at home that record is 10-2 ATS. New York after losing SU/ATS and going “Under” in their last game and now face a division opponent their record is 25-4 ATS. Finally New York off a loss and now face Miami they check in with an 11-1 ATS record. If the Jets lost both SU and ATS the record is 14-1 ATS and if they lost their last two games ATS and now face Miami their record improves to a perfect 7-0 ATS.
We have the Jets active a few of our NFL Systems. In Games 15-16, play ON a +.500% division home team (not a favorite of 7+ points or underdog of 4+ points ) not off a home favorite SU win scoring 37+ points in its last game vs. an opponent with a better record, 18-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 13.1 points per game.
In Game 16, play ON a +.500 non-Monday home team (not a favorite of more than 9 points or underdog of 3+ points) off a favorite SU loss in its last game and not a home favorite SU loss in its game before that vs. an opponent not off an ATS loss of 3+ points in its last game, 17-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 12.9 points per game.
In Game 16, play ON a division home team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 2 points) vs. a +.600% opponent, 15-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the host here as the Jets get the SU and cover for us on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New York Jets -2.5
Time / Date: 1:00 PM EST / Sunday December 28 (FOX / DirecTV 710)
Game: Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:25 EST December 27
Weather: Dome Stadium (Reliant Stadium)
Grade / Prediction: 4* Chicago / Houston OVER 46.5
Analysis:
When these teams get together on the field Sunday only one team still has any hope of a playoff appearance while the other after failing to win last week and possibly having their first winning season in franchise history will hope to keep from having a losing season by winning on Sunday.
Chicago needs a win over the Texans, and Minnesota, which has the tiebreaker over the Bears, to lose to the New York Giants to steal away the NFC North. The Bears can also sneak in as a wild card with a victory and losses by Dallas and Tampa Bay.
After winning a franchise record four straight games capped by a victory over the AFC leading Tennessee Titans Houston suffered a 27-16 loss last week in Oakland, a defeat that denied the Texans a chance at their first winning season in their seven-year franchise history.
The Texans have experienced an up-and-down season but their play at home has stayed consistent. They can match their franchise-best 6-2 home mark from the 07 season with a victory on Sunday. The Texans are 9-2 SU in their last 11 at Reliant Stadium.
Houston boasts the third-best offense in the league at 377.2 yards per game. Most of that is generated by a passing attack that ranks fourth in the NFL at 262.6 yards per contest.
Steve Slaton has surpassed Domanick Williams’s team record of 1,188 yards with 1, 190 yards to this point. Slaton passed Williams thanks to four 100-yard performances in his last six games. Although he was held to 66 yards on 18 carries against the Raiders, Slaton is 38 yards behind Tennessee's Chris Johnson - the leading rusher among rookies.
When the Bears offense has struggled recently their special teams have come up big for them and either scored or put them in a position to score.
In Monday's game, Alex Brown blocked Mason Crosby's 38-yard field goal attempt with 18 seconds left to force the extra period, when Robbie Gould made a 38-yarder for his second game-winner in as many weeks.
Chicago’s Daniel Manning had an 83-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in a 27 to 24 win over New Orleans, set up a field goal with a 70-yard return in Monday's game. Chicago also recovered a punt that went off Green Bay's Jarrett Bush to setup a touchdown.
The Bears have an outstanding rookie running back of their own in Matt Forte. He has set the Bears rookie record with 1,188 rushing yards and also has a team-high 60 catches for 452 yards. Forte leads all rookies and is second in the league behind Minnesota's Adrian Peterson with 1,640 total yards from scrimmage.
CHICAGO is 16-6 Over vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons, 10-2 Over versus teams averaging 235 or more passing yards per game over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 Over versus teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are also 5-0-1 Over coming in off at least three straight wins and the game has a line range of 2.5 to 7.0 points. HOUSTON is 10-2 Over in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992 and 11-3 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The Texans are 14-3 Over after going “Under” in their last game with a line range of 2.5 to 7.0 points. If they are playing at home the record improves to 7-1 Over and if the last two games went “Under” they are a perfect 7-0 Over.
Data base research has uncovered several league wide systems that are active in today’s contest. We know that non-division teams off a SU road loss as a favorite of 7 or more points are 13-3 Over. The record is 7-0 Over if the line range is +7 to -7 in the current match up. NFL AFC teams in Game 16 as a favorite of 7 or less points facing a team from the NFC have gone a perfect 7-0 Over. Chicago is coming in off a MNF affair in which they defeated the Packers by three points. We know that certain teams coming off a Monday night division home game have posted a solid 10-2 Over record and if they are now playing in the second half of the season the record improves to a perfect 7-0 Over.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index shows the total for this contest in the 51 to 54 range. Our Math Model Indicators also signal an “Over” here as the total points for this contest are 49. Both Indicators project a high scoring affair for the Texans and Bears on Sunday in Reliant Stadium.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support we will make this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week for Week 17 of the NFL Season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Chicago / Houston OVER 46.5
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday December 28 (NBC)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:20 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 61, Clear Skies, Wind NNW 6 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 3* Denver / San Diego Under 50.5
Analysis:
Qualcomm Stadium will be the site of one of the NFL’s marquee battles possibly of the season. There is no question these two teams hate one another and the Chargers were cheated by a missed call in the first meeting between these two this season which led to a Charger’s loss in Denver.
Just a short three weeks ago, the regular season finale between the Broncos and Chargers looked like it would feature a playoff team and a home team looking to the 2009 season.
A late season collapse by the Broncos and a strong close by the Chargers, however, has made Sunday's clash in San Diego a winner take all for the AFC West title with the winner going to the playoffs and the loser packing up for the offseason.
The Broncos have been in sole possession of first place in the AFC West the entire season, and led the Chargers by 3 games with 3 to go. But they now are in danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight season.
After a victory over Kansas City 24 to 17 on Dec. 7th to move within one win of the division title, Denver lost to Carolina 30 to 10 on Dec. 14th and blew a 13 to 0 lead in last Sunday's 30 to 23 loss to Buffalo.
The Chargers finished November with a 4-8 record, but have rallied to win all three games this month, and reeled off 13 consecutive December victories since a 23 to 7 loss to the Broncos on Dec. 31, 2005.
With so much on the line we expect both teams to play this game very close to the vest. Conservative play should rule the day, with both teams trying to establish the run game and not expose themselves to the costly turnovers that usually decide these types of games.
Denver off an ATS loss in their last game now facing San Diego have posted a record of 7-19 Under if they are playing them on the road that record is 2-10 Under. If the Broncos lost ATS and went Over in their last game and now face the Chargers they are 5-15 Under and if that meeting is on the highway the record is 1-9 Under.
San Diego coming in off an ATS win on the road and now playing at home are 25-43 Under. If they went “Over” the total in their game on the road the record is 28-46 Under. The Chargers playing in a division contest at home are 30-56-1 Under and if they are installed as a home favorite 13-29-1 Under.
Data base research has uncovered several league wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. NFL teams playing with a Total line range of 48 to 51 points have gone “Under” at a rate of 6-16 Under. If the game takes place during the month of December that record improves to a perfect 0-7 Under. We also note that certain home teams off a SU win on the road as an underdog and their opponent off a home favorite loss have gone 1-12 Under. If the two teams in that situation are division opponents the record improves to a perfect 0-5 Under. NFL teams coming into the contest off at least three ATS losses are 0-9-1 Under.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support for our selection on this game we will make this our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Denver / San Diego UNDER 50.5
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Time / Date: 4:15 PM EST / Sunday December 28 (FOX) (DirecTV716)
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:10 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 61, Scattered Showers, Wind SW 22 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -1
Analysis:
Lincoln Financial Stadium will be the site of today’s NFC clash between the host Philadelphia Eagles and the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are fighting for a playoff berth as the Cowboys win and their in but the Eagles will require a win and some serious help.
Before the Cowboys loss to Baltimore they had been playing well even with a close loss at Pittsburgh and defeating the Giants the week prior. Their defense had been carrying this team and they looked strong.
The loss to the Ravens seemed to expose the fact that they are a tired and battered team after a tough three-game span. As far as defenses go the Cowboys played a murderous row in those three games.
The Eagles enter today’s contest off a road favorite loss to the Washington Redskins last week. They wouldn’t be in this shape had they been able to dispose of the Skins but they were unable to do so and here they are in a must win situation.
Philly is also playing with revenge for a 41 to 37 loss to Dallas on Monday Night Football. We note that the Eagles are a solid 44-28 ATS playing with revenge. Dallas head man Wade Philips teams have struggled when playing into division revenge posting a 0-6 ATS record in that situation.
This game features a very strong home/away point differential and it favors the host as they have averaged 34 points per game their last four home games while the Boys have not scored more than 14 points in their last four on the highway. The Philly defense is ranked 3rd in the league and will hold nothing back here against a shaky Tony Romo.
Not only does their QB struggle in the month of December but the whole Boys team has found the going tough during the last month of the regular season. They are only 7-21 SU on the road during the month of December and have a record of 6-22 ATS. The Cowboys are 8-25 ATS after Thanksgiving when facing teams with a winning record. Dallas is also 0-10 ATS during the month of December when on the highway and facing a winning team.
Data base research has uncovered several league wide systems that are active for today’s contest. In Games 15-16, play ON a +.500% division home team (not a
favorite of 7+ points or underdog of 4+ points ) not off a home favorite SU win
scoring 37+ points in its last game vs. an opponent with a better record, 18-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by more than 13 points per game. In Game 16, play ON a home team (not a favorite of 2+ points or an underdog of more than 2 points) with a TOTAL under 43 points, 17-0 ATS. Play ON a division home team (not a favorite of 3+ points) with a TOTAL of 37½-45 points off a non-Monday road favorite SU loss in its last game vs. an opponent not off a non-conference SU loss of 10+ points in its last game, 20-0 ATS. From Week 11 on, play ON a non-Saturday team seeking revenge for a SU loss, allowing 41+ points in the first matchup 3+ games ago, 14-0 ATS.
With the home field advantage, strong fundamental, situational and technical support we will make the Eagles our 5* NFL Game of the Week Selection.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -1
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday December 28 (CBS DirecTV 706)
Game: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:15 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 26, Cloudy, Wind WSW 39 MPH Gusts up to 60 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 4* Buffalo Bills +6
Analysis:
Ralph Wilson Stadium will be the site of today’s clash between the host Buffalo Bills and the visiting New England Patriots.
The Patriots are fighting to claim a playoff spot and even if they win here today they still need some help to get into the playoffs. The line today reflects the fact that this is a must win situation for the visitor. The line when these two teams met earlier this season at Foxboro was only 3.5 in favor of the Patriots, now on the road they are almost a touchdown favorite.
The Bills enter this contest after going into Denver and pulling off the upset win, with nothing to play for other than pride. We know that home teams in their last home game of the season in this situation have been money in the bank winning well over 75% of the time.
We also note that NFL teams like the Patriots coming in off two huge blowout victories in their last two games are active in a letdown situation that has won the money over 70% of the time.
Teams coming off a SU win and going “Over” in their last game and are now installed as a road favorite are 199-252-15 ATS. If they are playing against a conference opponent the record is 153-192-10 ATS. NFL teams that won ATS at home in their last game and are now installed as a road favorite are 76-105-4 ATS. If the current game has a line range of 3 to 7 points the record is 41-63 ATS.
It may appear to some that since the Bills are out of the playoffs they have nothing to play for, I think they put that thought to rest last week with their big win in the Mile High City. They are playing a heated rival and have a chance to knock them out of the playoffs after taking it on the chin from the Patriots over the last several Decembers.
Finally the Patriots are active in one of our NFL Systems that tells us to Play AGAINST a road favorite of less than 7 points with a TOTAL of 38+ points off a non-conference home SU & ATS win as a favorite of 7+ points last week, 21-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by more than 10 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Buffalo Bills +6
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday December 28 (CBS DirecTV 718)
Game: Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Line Origin: BetCris @ 10:14 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 57, Scattered Showers, Wind SW 15 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 4* New York Jets -2.5
Analysis:
Giants Stadium will be the site of todays clash between the host New York Jets and the visiting Miami Dolphins. Both teams are playing for a playoff berth, Miami wins and they are in but the Jets will need a little help.
The Dolphins are the most improved team in the NFL and it’s hard to believe they could actually win the division with a win over the Jets here today. Even though they have been playing extremely well this is a tall order to go on the road in December and defeat a Jets team at home.
They always say defense wins championships but we know you must be able to run the football in December to advance. This Jets team has done an outstanding job of rushing the football with 128 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. The Jets defense has held opponents to 92 yards rushing per game on 3.7 yards per carry.
New York’s rushing differential triggers one of our statistical indicators that has a record of 154-78 ATS. They also qualify in a subset of this indicator that has a record of 44-9 ATS!
Technical sets also tell us that Miami is 3-13 ATS on the road from Game 13 on when facing teams with a winning record. Miami after winning at least their last two games have posted a record of 43-64 ATS. If the Fins won on the road in their last game they are 31-51 ATS in the following game. Dolphins are 73-101-8 ATS facing a division opponent and if they are off a SU win in their last game that record is 33-61-2 ATS. If that win came on the highway the Fins are 31-51 ATS in their next game.
The Jets off a SU loss in their last game and now face a division opponent are 53-28 ATS. If they lost SU and ATS the record is 51-29 ATS. If the Jets lost SU and went “Under” in their last game they are 29-6 ATS if they are now playing at home that record is 10-2 ATS. New York after losing SU/ATS and going “Under” in their last game and now face a division opponent their record is 25-4 ATS. Finally New York off a loss and now face Miami they check in with an 11-1 ATS record. If the Jets lost both SU and ATS the record is 14-1 ATS and if they lost their last two games ATS and now face Miami their record improves to a perfect 7-0 ATS.
We have the Jets active a few of our NFL Systems. In Games 15-16, play ON a +.500% division home team (not a favorite of 7+ points or underdog of 4+ points ) not off a home favorite SU win scoring 37+ points in its last game vs. an opponent with a better record, 18-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 13.1 points per game.
In Game 16, play ON a +.500 non-Monday home team (not a favorite of more than 9 points or underdog of 3+ points) off a favorite SU loss in its last game and not a home favorite SU loss in its game before that vs. an opponent not off an ATS loss of 3+ points in its last game, 17-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 12.9 points per game.
In Game 16, play ON a division home team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 2 points) vs. a +.600% opponent, 15-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the host here as the Jets get the SU and cover for us on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New York Jets -2.5
Time / Date: 1:00 PM EST / Sunday December 28 (FOX / DirecTV 710)
Game: Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:25 EST December 27
Weather: Dome Stadium (Reliant Stadium)
Grade / Prediction: 4* Chicago / Houston OVER 46.5
Analysis:
When these teams get together on the field Sunday only one team still has any hope of a playoff appearance while the other after failing to win last week and possibly having their first winning season in franchise history will hope to keep from having a losing season by winning on Sunday.
Chicago needs a win over the Texans, and Minnesota, which has the tiebreaker over the Bears, to lose to the New York Giants to steal away the NFC North. The Bears can also sneak in as a wild card with a victory and losses by Dallas and Tampa Bay.
After winning a franchise record four straight games capped by a victory over the AFC leading Tennessee Titans Houston suffered a 27-16 loss last week in Oakland, a defeat that denied the Texans a chance at their first winning season in their seven-year franchise history.
The Texans have experienced an up-and-down season but their play at home has stayed consistent. They can match their franchise-best 6-2 home mark from the 07 season with a victory on Sunday. The Texans are 9-2 SU in their last 11 at Reliant Stadium.
Houston boasts the third-best offense in the league at 377.2 yards per game. Most of that is generated by a passing attack that ranks fourth in the NFL at 262.6 yards per contest.
Steve Slaton has surpassed Domanick Williams’s team record of 1,188 yards with 1, 190 yards to this point. Slaton passed Williams thanks to four 100-yard performances in his last six games. Although he was held to 66 yards on 18 carries against the Raiders, Slaton is 38 yards behind Tennessee's Chris Johnson - the leading rusher among rookies.
When the Bears offense has struggled recently their special teams have come up big for them and either scored or put them in a position to score.
In Monday's game, Alex Brown blocked Mason Crosby's 38-yard field goal attempt with 18 seconds left to force the extra period, when Robbie Gould made a 38-yarder for his second game-winner in as many weeks.
Chicago’s Daniel Manning had an 83-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in a 27 to 24 win over New Orleans, set up a field goal with a 70-yard return in Monday's game. Chicago also recovered a punt that went off Green Bay's Jarrett Bush to setup a touchdown.
The Bears have an outstanding rookie running back of their own in Matt Forte. He has set the Bears rookie record with 1,188 rushing yards and also has a team-high 60 catches for 452 yards. Forte leads all rookies and is second in the league behind Minnesota's Adrian Peterson with 1,640 total yards from scrimmage.
CHICAGO is 16-6 Over vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons, 10-2 Over versus teams averaging 235 or more passing yards per game over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 Over versus teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are also 5-0-1 Over coming in off at least three straight wins and the game has a line range of 2.5 to 7.0 points. HOUSTON is 10-2 Over in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992 and 11-3 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The Texans are 14-3 Over after going “Under” in their last game with a line range of 2.5 to 7.0 points. If they are playing at home the record improves to 7-1 Over and if the last two games went “Under” they are a perfect 7-0 Over.
Data base research has uncovered several league wide systems that are active in today’s contest. We know that non-division teams off a SU road loss as a favorite of 7 or more points are 13-3 Over. The record is 7-0 Over if the line range is +7 to -7 in the current match up. NFL AFC teams in Game 16 as a favorite of 7 or less points facing a team from the NFC have gone a perfect 7-0 Over. Chicago is coming in off a MNF affair in which they defeated the Packers by three points. We know that certain teams coming off a Monday night division home game have posted a solid 10-2 Over record and if they are now playing in the second half of the season the record improves to a perfect 7-0 Over.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index shows the total for this contest in the 51 to 54 range. Our Math Model Indicators also signal an “Over” here as the total points for this contest are 49. Both Indicators project a high scoring affair for the Texans and Bears on Sunday in Reliant Stadium.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support we will make this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week for Week 17 of the NFL Season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Chicago / Houston OVER 46.5
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday December 28 (NBC)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:20 EST December 27
Weather: Temp 61, Clear Skies, Wind NNW 6 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 3* Denver / San Diego Under 50.5
Analysis:
Qualcomm Stadium will be the site of one of the NFL’s marquee battles possibly of the season. There is no question these two teams hate one another and the Chargers were cheated by a missed call in the first meeting between these two this season which led to a Charger’s loss in Denver.
Just a short three weeks ago, the regular season finale between the Broncos and Chargers looked like it would feature a playoff team and a home team looking to the 2009 season.
A late season collapse by the Broncos and a strong close by the Chargers, however, has made Sunday's clash in San Diego a winner take all for the AFC West title with the winner going to the playoffs and the loser packing up for the offseason.
The Broncos have been in sole possession of first place in the AFC West the entire season, and led the Chargers by 3 games with 3 to go. But they now are in danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight season.
After a victory over Kansas City 24 to 17 on Dec. 7th to move within one win of the division title, Denver lost to Carolina 30 to 10 on Dec. 14th and blew a 13 to 0 lead in last Sunday's 30 to 23 loss to Buffalo.
The Chargers finished November with a 4-8 record, but have rallied to win all three games this month, and reeled off 13 consecutive December victories since a 23 to 7 loss to the Broncos on Dec. 31, 2005.
With so much on the line we expect both teams to play this game very close to the vest. Conservative play should rule the day, with both teams trying to establish the run game and not expose themselves to the costly turnovers that usually decide these types of games.
Denver off an ATS loss in their last game now facing San Diego have posted a record of 7-19 Under if they are playing them on the road that record is 2-10 Under. If the Broncos lost ATS and went Over in their last game and now face the Chargers they are 5-15 Under and if that meeting is on the highway the record is 1-9 Under.
San Diego coming in off an ATS win on the road and now playing at home are 25-43 Under. If they went “Over” the total in their game on the road the record is 28-46 Under. The Chargers playing in a division contest at home are 30-56-1 Under and if they are installed as a home favorite 13-29-1 Under.
Data base research has uncovered several league wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. NFL teams playing with a Total line range of 48 to 51 points have gone “Under” at a rate of 6-16 Under. If the game takes place during the month of December that record improves to a perfect 0-7 Under. We also note that certain home teams off a SU win on the road as an underdog and their opponent off a home favorite loss have gone 1-12 Under. If the two teams in that situation are division opponents the record improves to a perfect 0-5 Under. NFL teams coming into the contest off at least three ATS losses are 0-9-1 Under.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support for our selection on this game we will make this our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Denver / San Diego UNDER 50.5
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Golden Contender
BOWL play courtesy odf selectivesportssystems
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->On Sunday night the Bowl play is on the LA.Tech bulldogs.Game 224 at 8:15 eastern.Latech has moved to a short favorite after opening as an underdog.This line move is warranted,heres why.They have a much bigger more physical offensive line,and they should control the run game,as they are better on both sides of the ball statistically in the ground war.Latech is 3-1 su all time vs N.llinois and 6-0 su vs the MAC conference s-92.N.I is a horendous 3-14 su as a dog and 1-9 su vs teams who are better than 500.Also of note are the struggles of teams in this line range who have won less than 3 games the prior year.N.illy did some nice things this year,but only won 2 games last year.La tech has the added advantage of playing this one in there home state.In the battle of the dogs.Look for the bulldogs of Latech to win comfortably against the NI huskies. Latech tonight here as a regular play bol gc-
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BOWL play courtesy odf selectivesportssystems
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->On Sunday night the Bowl play is on the LA.Tech bulldogs.Game 224 at 8:15 eastern.Latech has moved to a short favorite after opening as an underdog.This line move is warranted,heres why.They have a much bigger more physical offensive line,and they should control the run game,as they are better on both sides of the ball statistically in the ground war.Latech is 3-1 su all time vs N.llinois and 6-0 su vs the MAC conference s-92.N.I is a horendous 3-14 su as a dog and 1-9 su vs teams who are better than 500.Also of note are the struggles of teams in this line range who have won less than 3 games the prior year.N.illy did some nice things this year,but only won 2 games last year.La tech has the added advantage of playing this one in there home state.In the battle of the dogs.Look for the bulldogs of Latech to win comfortably against the NI huskies. Latech tonight here as a regular play bol gc-
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Stan Sharp
Analysis: Stan is Betting PHILADELPHIA today. Stan notes that Dallas has under achieved all year and that Philadelphia will put the final nail in the Dallas coffin. Expect a monster performance from QB McNabb today as this may well be his last game in a Philadelphia uniform and he will go out in style today. Stan has Philadelphia winning this game by 10-13 points. TAKE PHILADELPHIA as STAN'S NFL SEASON ENDING BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Analysis: Stan is Betting PHILADELPHIA today. Stan notes that Dallas has under achieved all year and that Philadelphia will put the final nail in the Dallas coffin. Expect a monster performance from QB McNabb today as this may well be his last game in a Philadelphia uniform and he will go out in style today. Stan has Philadelphia winning this game by 10-13 points. TAKE PHILADELPHIA as STAN'S NFL SEASON ENDING BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">NC reg. op on tonight La Tech.
northcoast regular opinion and double play under 46- in the bowl game
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