SPORTS ADVISORS
Oakland (4-11, 6-9 ATS) at Tampa Bay (9-6, 8-7 ATS)
The Buccaneers, still in the NFC wild-card race but no longer in control of their own fate, look to at least do their part when they host the Raiders at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay got smacked by San Diego 41-24 last week as a 3½-point home chalk, suffering its third straight loss and falling to 1-3 ATS in its last four starts. QB Jeff Garcia (21 of 34, 232 yards, 1 TD) took a beating in a sub-par effort, throwing two INTs – with the second one returned for the Chargers’ final TD -- as the Bucs lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed San Diego QB Philip Rivers to throw for 287 yards and four TDs.
In order to reach the playoffs, Tampa now must beat the Raiders and have the Cowboys lose to the Eagles.
Oakland upended the surging Texans 27-16 to snap a three-game SU and ATS slide, giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Raiders’ last 12 games. QB JaMarcus Russell (18 of 25, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) lost a fumble for Oakland’s lone turnover, but otherwise had one of his best outings of the season. He got some help from special teams, as Johnnie Lee Higgins returned a punt 80 yards for a TD.
These teams have met twice this decade, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, Oakland won 30-20 laying four points at home in 2004; two seasons earlier, Tampa ripped Oakland 48-21 in the Super Bowl giving 3½ points.
The Buccaneers are on ATS runs of 24-10-3 at home against teams with a losing road record and 4-1 as a home chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-6 on grass, 1-5 against losing teams, 1-4 in December and 1-4 in regular-season finales. The Raiders have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, including 0-5 in Week 17, 3-9 after a non-cover, 2-6 catching more than 10 points and 15-37 in December.
The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 4-1 at home, 7-3 in Week 17 and 37-18 with the Bucs a home favorite, and the under for Oakland is on stretches of 6-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 with the Raiders a ‘dog and 38-14-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (0-15, 6-9 ATS) at Green Bay (5-10, 8-7 ATS)
The Lions hope to avoid becoming the first 0-16 team in NFL history when they travel to Lambeau Field for an NFC North clash with the Packers.
Detroit was blown out 42-7 by New Orleans as a seven-point home underdog, halting a two-game ATS uptick and moving the Lions to 1-22 SU and 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games. Detroit got 111 rushing yards and a TD out of Kevin Smith, but otherwise got steamrolled, allowing a whopping 532 totals yards while gaining just 255. QB Dan Orlovsky (10 of 23, 125 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INT) committed both his team’s turnovers.
Green Bay fell to Chicago 20-17 in overtime Monday night, losing for the fifth straight week but halting a four-game ATS skid by covering as a four-point road pup. QB Aaron Rodgers (24 of 39, 260 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent effort, and the Pack defense allowed just 210 total yards, but the Bears blocked Mason Crosby’s late 38-yard field-goal attempt, then won it on a field goal in overtime.
Green Bay is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 48-25 road victory giving three points in September, and Detroit hasn’t won SU at Lambeau since 1991. Furthermore, the home team is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, and the Lions are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 contests in Green Bay.
Despite their recent ATS woes, the Packers are on pointspread runs of 4-0-1 ATS in Week 17, 13-3 in division play and 14-6 against losing teams. The Lions, meanwhile, are on ATS slides of 1-11 as a dog of 3½-10 points and 5-12 against the NFC, but they have cashed in their last five road games.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 17-6-1 overall, 8-2 as a home chalk, 12-3 overall as a favorite, 6-2 in division play and 9-3 at Lambeau, and the over for Detroit is on rolls of 7-2-1 overall, 18-6 on the highway and 8-2 in December. However, the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two in Green Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Dallas (9-6, 7-8 ATS) at Philadelphia (8-6-1, 9-6 ATS)
The Cowboys, who are in a win-and-they’re-in playoff scenario, head to Lincoln Financial Field to face the NFC East rival Eagles, who need to win and get a lot of help to reach the postseason.
Dallas was bounced by Baltimore 33-24 at home last week as a five-point chalk and has now alternated SU wins and losses over its last four games. QB Tony Romo (24 of 45, 252 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had both turnovers for the Cowboys, who forced just one turnover. And after Dallas twice climbed within two points during a huge fourth quarter, the defense shockingly gave up back-to-back TD runs of 77 yards by Willis McGahee and 82 yards by Le’Ron McClain.
Philadelphia is coming off a 10-3 loss at Washington as a 4½-point favorite, halting a three-game SU and ATS surge. With the exception of the Eagles’ tie with the Bengals in Week 11, the SU winner has cashed in Philly’s last 12 games. QB Donovan McNabb didn’t get much mileage out of 46 throws, completing 26 for just 230 yards, and in a defensive slugfest, McNabb’s fumble was the game’s lone turnover.
Philadelphia is on a 4-1 ATS run (3-2 SU) in this rivalry, losing 41-37 at Dallas in September but covering as a 6½-point pup. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS uptick, and the underdog has cashed in seven of the last eight clashes between these teams.
The Cowboys are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games after a SU loss, but they are on ATS skids of 0-4 getting points, 0-5 in Week 17, 1-8 in December, 1-4 in roadies and 2-7 inside the division. The Eagles have dropped four straight ATS decisions in regular-season finales, but they carry positive ATS trends of 5-2 at home, 5-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 in the NFC East.
The under for Dallas is on runs of 5-1 in December and 6-2 in Week 17, and the under for Philadelphia is on streaks of 5-1-1 December, 6-2-1 at home, 6-2 the last week of the season and 40-15-5 with the Eagles favored. However, the total has gone high in five of the last seven meetings between these two in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Giants (12-3, 11-4 ATS) at Minnesota (9-6, 6-9 ATS)
The Vikings, who can claim the NFC North title with a win at the Metrodome, take on the defending Super Bowl champion Giants, who have already locked up home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs.
Minnesota fell to Arizona 24-17 as a 3½-point home favorite, ending a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS run. QB Tarvaris Jackson (22 of 36, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a fair outing as the Vikes outgained the Cardinals 350-222, but he also gave away two of his three fumbles as Minnesota lost the turnover battle, 4-0. The Falcons got 10 points off turnovers, negating an otherwise solid defensive game by the Vikings.
New York rallied to knock off Carolina 34-28 in overtime as a 3½-point home chalk in a battle for home-field advantage, giving the SU winner a 14-1 ATS mark this season in Giants game (12-0 ATS in the last 12). QB Eli Manning (17 of 27, 181 yards, 1 TD) didn’t put up big numbers, but he led a turnover-free offense that racked up an eye-popping 301 rushing yards. RB Derrick Ward went off for 215 yards on 15 carries, and RB Brandon Jacobs (24 carries, 87 yards) scored three TDs, including the game winner.
With nothing to play for, the Giants will likely rest or at least limit several key players this week.
Minnesota is 2-0 SU and ATS in its last two meetings with the Giants, both in New York, including last year’s 41-27 thumping when the Vikings picked off Manning four times and returned three for TDs. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the road team is on a 5-0 ATS tear.
The Vikings are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½-10 points and 5-2 after a non-cover, but they are in pointspread funks of 1-7 in Week 17, 1-5 in December, 2-6 against the NFC and 3-7 as a favorite. The Giants, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 20-6 overall, 8-1 getting points, 14-2 against winning teams and 20-6 on the highway.
The over has hit in New York’s last five Week 17 tilts and is 36-17-3 in Minnesota’s last 56 games after a SU loss, but the under is 7-2 in the Giants’ last nine games as a road ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Chicago (9-6, 6-7-2 ATS) at Houston (7-8 SU and ATS)
The Bears, who must win and get some help to keep their season going, roll into Reliant Stadium to take on the Texans.
Chicago won in overtime for the second straight week, this time edging Green Bay 20-17 on Monday night for its third consecutive SU win. However, the Bears failed to cash as a four-point home chalk. QB Kyle Orton (14 of 27, 142 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) had a mostly dismal day, but he led a late TD drive to tie the game, and Chicago forced OT when Alex Brown blocked Green Bay’s 38-yard game-winning field goal attempt in the final minute. Orton then led the Bears to the winning field goal on a seven-play drive to open the extra session.
Houston stumbled at Oakland 27-16 as a seven-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU and five-game ATS uptick and killing the Texans’ chance to post their first winning season. QB Matt Schaub (19 of 36, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) led just one first-quarter TD drive, and Houston gave up an 80-yard punt-return TD to Johnnie Lee Higgins in the fourth quarter.
These teams have met just once before, with Houston winning 24-5 as a 1½-point road underdog in 2004.
The Bears are in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 overall, 0-5-1 after a SU win and 1-5 in season finales, but they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six December starts and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a non-cover. The Texans are on ATS upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on grass, 4-1 in December and 13-4 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Chicago is on tears of 5-2 overall, 7-1 in roadies and 4-0 against losing teams, and the under for Houston is on a 5-0 spree, but the over for the Texans is on surges of 10-1 after a SU loss, 10-1 after an ATS setback and 19-7 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Carolina (11-4, 8-5-2 ATS) at New Orleans (8-7, 10-4-1 ATS)
The Panthers head to the Superdome to face the division rival Saints with a lot to play for, needing a victory to lock up the NFC South title and No. 2 playoff seed.
Carolina, which was on a 7-1 SU surge, gave the Giants all they could handle Sunday night before falling 34-28 in overtime as a 3½-point road pup. QB Jake Delhomme (11 of 19, 185 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was rather average, though he led a turnover-free effort, and RB DeAngelo Williams (24 carries, 108 yards) was again sterling, running for all four of the Panthers’ TDs. The Panthers finished with 343 yards, but they gave up 459 and let New York hold the ball for 39 minutes.
Carolina clinches the NFC South with a win here, but would slip to a No. 5 wild-card seed with a loss and a Falcons home win over the Rams.
New Orleans dumped winless Detroit 42-7 as a seven-point road chalk, improving to 5-0-1 ATS in the last six weeks (4-2 SU). QB Drew Brees (30 of 40, 351 yards, 2 TDs) had another big passing day, and the Saints added 181 rushing yards to finish with a whopping 532 total yards, while allowing just 255 to the lowly Lions.
Carolina is on a 3-1 SU and ATS roll in this NFC South rivalry, including a 30-7 rout in October as a three-point home chalk, and the Panthers are on a 7-0 ATS tear at the Superdome. In fact, the road team has cashed in 14 of the last 16 clashes between these two.
The Panthers are on pointspread hot streaks of 7-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after an ATS setback, 8-2-1 as a favorite, 4-0 as a road chalk, 5-1 in Week 17 and 5-1 in December. The Saints are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 regular-season finales and 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven after a SU win, but along with their current run, they are on ATS rolls of 4-0 at home, 4-0-1 against NFC foes and 4-1 on field turf.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight contests between these squads. However, the over for Carolina is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 6-0 against the NFC, 4-1 against winning teams and 10-4 in December, and the over for New Orleans is on runs of 14-5-1 overall, 10-1-1 at home, 8-1 in December and 11-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (2-13, 5-10 ATS) at Atlanta (10-5, 9-6 ATS)
The Falcons, who wrapped up a playoff spot with last week’s upset win at Minnesota, cap their surprisingly successful regular season with a contest at the Georgia Dome against the lowly Rams.
Atlanta dropped Minnesota 24-17 as a 3½-point road underdog for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS), as the SU winner is now 22-2 ATS in the Falcons’ last 24 games, including 14-1 ATS this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (13 of 24, 134 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t do much for an offense that finished with just 222 yards, but Atlanta also had no turnovers while its defense recovered four Vikings fumbles, turning one into a TD and another into a field goal.
An Atlanta win and a Carolina loss would give the Falcons the NFC South title and the second seed in the NFC playoffs.
St. Louis fell to San Francisco 17-16 for its ninth consecutive loss, though the Rams cashed as a 3½-point home pup to halt a two-game ATS skid. The Rams failed to take advantage of a 343-273 edge in total yards, a 4-1 turnover advantage and a nearly 2-1 edge in time of possession (38:38-21:22), blowing a 16-3 fourth-quarter lead by giving up two touchdowns in the final five minutes.
St. Louis is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Atlanta, including a 28-16 home win last season as a three-point home chalk. The favorite has cashed in the last six meetings, and the home team is on a 5-0 ATS run.
The Falcons sport ATS streaks of 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in regular-season finales, 6-2 at home and 5-2 as a favorite. The Rams have cashed in six of their last eight Week 17 contests, but are otherwise on a slew of negative ATS runs, including 2-6 overall, 1-5 against the NFC, 1-5 in December, 2-10 getting more than 10 points, 2-6 on the road and 8-20 against winning teams.
The over for Atlanta is on rolls of 9-3 on field turf, 6-2 in December and 8-3 at home, and the over for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1 in Week 17 and 9-4-1 in December. And in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last eight contests at the Georgia Dome and 12 of the last 16 clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Kansas City (2-13, 8-7 ATS) at Cincinnati (3-11-1, 6-9 ATS)
Two teams playing for position in the 2009 NFL draft square off when the Chiefs travel to Paul Brown Stadium to face the Bengals.
Cincinnati shut out Cleveland 14-0 as a three-point home ‘dog to win and cover for the second straight week, and the SU winner has cashed in nine of the Bengals’ last 10 games, with the exception being Cincy’s tie and cover against the Eagles in Week 11. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went 5 of 9 passing for an extremely meager 55 yards, but he had one TD toss, and RB Cedric Benson rolled up 171 yards on 38 carries. The Bengals finished with a 4-1 edge in turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, and allowed just 182 yards.
Kansas City went back and forth with Miami before losing 38-31 as a 3½-point home pup, halting a three-game ATS uptick as the Chiefs lost SU for the third straight week. Kansas City outgained Miami 492-403, but lost the turnover battle 4-2, as QB Tyler Thigpen threw three INTs, including one on the Chiefs’ final possession.
In four meetings this decade, these teams have each gone 2-2 SU and ATS, with the SU winner cashing in all four games. Last year, Kansas City posted a 27-20 home win catching one point.
The Bengals are on a 4-1 ATS run in December, but they are still on pointspread backslides of 1-7 as a favorite, 0-4 as a home chalk, 2-9 against the AFC, 3-9 after a spread-cover and 4-9 against losing teams. The Chiefs, despite their ugly SU record, are on ATS upticks of 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 4-1 in Week 17, 4-1 in December and 5-2 against AFC foes.
The under for Cincinnati is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 8-1 in December, 5-1 after a SU win and 7-2-1 at home, and the under for Kansas City is on runs of 6-1 in Week 17, 5-1 against losing teams and 4-1 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Jacksonville (5-10, 4-11 ATS) at Baltimore (10-5, 11-4 ATS)
The Ravens can lock up the AFC’s final wild-card spot with a win over the Jaguars at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore stunned Dallas 33-24 as a five-point road chalk in a Saturday game, improving to 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games. QB Joe Flacco (17 of 25, 149 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t have a big day, but his fumble was the lone turnover for Baltimore and led to the Cowboys’ only first-half TD. The Ravens got fourth-quarter TD runs of 77 yards from Willis McGahee and 82 yards from Le’Ron McClain to stem a Cowboys comeback. McClain (22 carries, 139 yards) and McGahee (8 carries, 108 yards) helped Baltimore pile up 265 rushing yards.
Jacksonville lost to Indianapolis 31-24 getting 5½ points at home last Thursday, dropping the Jags to 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. QB David Garrard (28 of 41, 329 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, and in an otherwise very even contest, Garrard was sacked on second-and-goal from the 7-yard line on the last play of the game.
The SU winner is now 24-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 26 games (14-1 ATS this year), and the winner has cashed in the Jaguars’ last 11 games.
These former division rivals haven’t met since 2005, when Jacksonville rolled 30-3 as a 6½-point home favorite. However, the underdog is 10-4-3 ATS in the last 17 series clashes.
The Ravens are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 8-2 overall, 6-0 against losing teams, 5-1 as a chalk and 6-2 at home. On the flip side, the Jaguars are on ATS freefalls of 0-5 against the AFC, 3-13 on grass, 1-4 as a ‘dog, 1-4 in December and 1-4 against winning teams.
The over for Baltimore is on tears of 7-2-1 overall, 7-0 against losing teams and 5-1 versus AFC foes, and the over for Jacksonville is on rolls of 10-3 in December, 9-3-1 with the Jags a road pup and 12-4-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 8-1 in Baltimore and 12-4-1 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
