Service Plays Sunday 12/28/08

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Kelso

15 Units
Eagles (-1½) over Cowboys
4:15 PM -- Lincoln Financial Field

Philadelphia by 6-7
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Winning Points = 0-11

INDEPENDENCE BOWL (Shreveport, LA)
LOUISIANA TECH over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 3
LOUISIANA TECH 23-20.
 
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Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package = 3-8

Independence Bowl Sunday December 28
Northern Illinois Huskies versus Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Line Northern Illinois -1 Total 47

On paper these are two evenly matched teams with similar won/loss records but Northern Illinois has played a much tougher schedule. The MAC has placed four teams in Bowls and Northern Illinois easily could have been 10-2 instead of 6-6. Four losses to Minnesota, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Tennessee were by four points or less all but the Vols are Bowl bound teams..

3* Northern Illinois Huskies -1
Bonus play 3* on the UNDER 47
 
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NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28
8:15 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
No Illinois ... 36.6 .. 25-18 .. 18-17 .. 169-137 .. 161-163.. + 4 . La Tech
La Tech ....... 38.5 .. 25-25 .. 19-20 .. 195-100 .. 157-280.. + 7 . by 0.7 Pts
ANALYSIS Not exactly the match that the country has been eagerly awaiting, but these 2 seemingly non-entities could provide a very entertaining show. This marks just the 3rd time in their gridiron history, that the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech play in a bowl game that includes a national line. They participated in the '77 & '78 Independence Bowls, against Louisville & East Carolina, when neither the Cards, nor the Pirates were on the Vegas rotation. Their other 2 holiday contests took place in the '90 Independence, when, as a 1-pt dog they tied Maryland, 34-34, as time expired. And in '01, they were fodder for Clemson in a 49-24 Humanitarian Bowl mauling. But here they are again, less than 100
miles from their campus, to boot. Thus, the 10-2 ATS home record in games involving Tech, must be taken into account. The Bulldogs rely on an overland game which finished as the 26th best in the nation, with Porter & Jackson a combined 1,730 yds & 16 TDs. Defensively, Tech was stung for 35, 38, 31, & 35 pts in 4 of its final 5 outings, but managed 38, 45, 38, & 31 pts in those 4. As we said, entertaining. The Huskies are just the opposite, ranking only 83rd in total offense, but with a suffocating "D", which finished 14th in scoring. Check holding 8 of their last 10 opponents to 3, 0, 13, 7, 13, 14, & 16 pts. Sure, they were stung for 45 & 33 pts in their 2 misses, but 1 was an OT loss to potent CentMich. Only vs BallSt, were the Huskies overmatched, as 4 of their other 5 losses came by just 4, 3, 4, & 3 pts, with the fifth a 16-0 setback to Navy. Try just 12 TD passes, along with 10 INTs, for the season. We normally shade the
better defense, but Tech has been a solid "host" play all season. A weak call.
PROPHECY: LOUISIANA TECH 19 - Northern Illinois 16 RATING: 6
 
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NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP = 6-5

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

LT leads this series 5-1 SU & 3-1 ATS but these two haven’t met S/’96 when LT topped NI 40-14 (-14’) in DeKalb. Tech is making its 1st bowl appearance S/’01 & only its 5th in schl hist. Of LT’s four previous
bowls, 3 of them were right here in the Independence Bowl (‘77, ‘78, ‘90). The Bulldogs are 1-2-1 SU (1-1 ATS) in bowls. Tech’s last bowl appearance was in the ‘01 Humanitarian Bowl when they dropped a
49-24 (+6’) decision to Clem. While this is just the Huskies’ 4th bowl, it’s their 3rd in the L/5Y. NI is 2-1 SU & 1-1 ATS in bowls but was manhandled by #25 TCU 37-7 in their last bowl (Poinsettia, ‘06), with their only pts coming on a blk’d punt. NI is 5-12 ATS as a favorite the L3Y (2-0 as AF TY) but LT is 3-7 as an AD under Dooley. While neither HC has coached a bowl game, NI HC Kill led his S Ill team to the 1-AA playoffs 5 times. LT went 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS vs 6 bowl-elig tms TY being outscored by 9 ppg & outgained by 52 ypg. In 6 gms vs bowl-caliber tms TY, the Huskies went 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS and were outscored by an avg of 9 ppg & outgained by 37 ypg. NI has 11 senior starters/15 upperclassmen while LT has
just 4 seniors/10 upperclassmen in starting roles. LT was targeted early by the Independence Bowl as a replacement for the SEC and Big 12 confs that didn’t have enough bowl elig teams to fill their slots. NI was a surprising pick for this bowl as most people thought the Sun Belt had a tie-in and that ULL would be a perfect candidate. A member of NI’s administration was a longtime member of the Independence Bowl comittee and they grabbed the bid despite not being known as a travelling team. Since LT is only 68 miles away from Shreveport, they will have a huge crowd edge over NI. LT started TY off with a bang by claiming an outright upset over Miss St (22-14, +8) in the 1st ever visit by an SEC tm to Ruston. LT’s ssn was hanging in the balance as Tech was 3-4 heading into Nov, but they won 4 of their L/5 gms securing a bowl bid. GT transfer QB Bennett st’d the 1st 5 gms & avg 125 ypg but his low comp % & poor ratio forced Dooley to make a change. Jenkins was moved into the #1 spot &
while he avg’d just 84 ypg, his comp % & ratio was an improvement & the off responded with him under C as Tech went 5-2 in gms with him as the starter. LT’s running gm is what makes their off go & they have a
pair of All-WAC RB’s in Porter & Jackson as the duo has helped Tech avg 195 ypg on the ground. Porter, an ‘08 WAC pick, backed up Jackson, a 2x WAC choice (‘06 & ‘07), for the L2Y before having a breakout ssn
TY. WR Livas leads the team with 157 all-purp ypg & was named 1st Tm WAC for his ST prowess. Tech’s OL avg 6’4” 298 with zero Sr starters & paved the way for 4.8 ypc while all’g 22 sks (7%). LT’s DL avg 6’3”
260 with no Sr starters & is led by 1st Tm WAC DT Smith. The Bulldogs have our #86 D overall and their rush D is #2 in the WAC & #11 in the NCAA all’g just 100 ypg. DB Baker was #2 in the conf in tkls & #21 in
the NCAA, but Tech’s #94 rated pass D is all’g 280 ypg (#116 in the NCAA). P Keagle earned 2nd Tm WAC honors & is a big key in Tech’s #6 ST rankings. PK Oestriecher missed 5 of his L/7 FGs. After an inj-plagued 2-10 ssn in ‘07, NI ret’d plenty of experience for new HC Kill to work with. They were 5-3 with their 3 losses by a comb 11 pts & incl 2 to BCS tms before losing 3 of the next 4. NI has our #94 off and was down to its 3rd-string QB at times but rFr Harnish played in 9 gms starting 8, incl the
L/6. The Huskies saw their streak of 9 str yrs with a 1,000 yd rusher (#1 NCAA) come to an end as HC Kill likes to rotate players & had 4 RB & 1 QB with 200+ yds rush. The rec corps also felt the impact as the top
WR had just 32 rec but 6 players had 12+ catches. The OL avg 6’6” 294 with 2 Sr’s & opened holes for 4.4 ypc and all’d 16 sks (5.9%). Three OL were named 3rd Tm MAC in C Adamski, LG Onyebuagu, & RT Brost.
The #46 D is the reason NI is here. After allowing 31 ppg & 434 ypg in ‘07, NI all’d just 18 ppg & 304 ypg. The cornerstone of the D is DE English, who became the 1st def player in MAC history to earn B2B Vern Smith Awards & is the Huskies’ career sk (31.5) & tfl (55) leader. The DL is allowing 4.2 ypc but has 17 of the tm’s 22 sks (77%). DE English & Bice (3rd Tm MAC) have a comb 13 sks on the yr. The LB corps is led by MLB McCarthy (3rd Tm MAC). The Huskies are the MAC’s #1 pass D with 3 Sr starters & are all’g just 163 ypg (63%) with a 13-6 ratio. They have our #44 ST & are led by K Salerno who hit a schl rec’d tying 52 yd FG vs BG. Another reason for the Huskies’ turnaround is 5 blk’d punts while allowing 0 blks.
Call this the “Block Bowl” as these tms have comb for 9 blk’d P’s. NI is all’g just 18 ppg and has held 8 of the L/10 opps to 16 or less. LT is all’g just 3.0 ypc rush and faces a rush oriented tm. Neither tm has explosive WR’s which allows the front 7’s to load the box and make this gm a battle in the trenches. FORECAST: N ILLINOIS/LA TECH UNDER 47

RATING: 2*UNDER 47
 
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SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (20-16-2).... DALLAS...MINNY
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (11-12-1)... ARIZONA...NEW ENGLAND


BEST BET
DALLAS over *PHILADELPHIA by 11
DALLAS, 27-16.

BEST BET
*MINNESOTA over NY GIANTS by 14
MINNESOTA 28-14.

RECOMMENDED
*ARIZONA over SEATTLE by 12
ARIZONA 29-17.

RECOMMENDED
NEW ENGLAND over *BUFFALO by 15
NEW ENGLAND 29-14
 
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THE SPORTS MEMO

Recommendations:

JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (5-2)... JETS

MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-1)... NEW ORLEANS

TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (3-7)....ARIZONA

BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)... PHILLY

DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2).. UNDER SF

ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (0-1)... DENVER

FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (4-5)... BUFFALO

ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-2-1).... BALT
 
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Tip of the Day - December 28, 2008

Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NFL

Game: 1:00PM, Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans

Prediction: Chicago Bears

Current Line: -1.5

Over/Under: 48

Reason: The Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Reliant Stadium.

Oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Texans, while the game's total is sitting at 48.

Robbie Gould's overtime field goal gave the Bears a 20-17 win over the Packers in Week 16.

The Bears failed to cover the 4.5-point spread at home in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (40).

The Texans lost to Oakland 27-16 as a 7-point favorite last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (43).

Matt Schaub passed for 255 yards with an interception for Houston and Steve Slaton rushed for 66 yards on 18 carries.
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** NFL NEWSLETTERS **

HOT

ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (4-3-1)...
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (5-2)...
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (11-3)... ARIZONA
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-1)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (8-5)..
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (28-20-1)... JETS
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (22-13) ... Tampa....Jax... Arizona


COLD

DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (5-8-1).. KC
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (6-9)... PHILLY
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (9-18)... ARIZONA....SF
LOGICAL APPROACH TOTALS (32-45-1)...Oakland/Tampa Bay UNDER 39 .....Dallas/Philadelphia UNDER 42 ½ .....N Y Giants/Minnesota UNDER 42 ...Carolina/New Orleans OVER 53 ...Kansas City/Cincinnati UNDER 38 ..Seattle/Arizona OVER 45 ..Washington/San Francisco UNDER 37 ..Denver/San Diego OVER 50

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (27-45-2) ... CAROLINA...JAX...PITT...ARIZ...DENVER
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (3-7).



THE REST

BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (9-9)..
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (1-1)...
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2)..
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (0-1)...
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (4-5)...
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (7-11-1)....
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (22-21-1)...... INDY...JETS...SAN FRAN
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (10-8)... NEW ORLEANS
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (11-8)... PHILLY
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (9-7)... MIAMI
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (6-6-1)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (7-6-2)...
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (9-15-1)..
POINTWISE 1* (0-0)...
POINTWISE 2* (3-4)... NEW ENGLAND
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-2-1)....
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (20-16-2).... DALLAS...MINNY
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (11-12-1)... ARIZONA...NEW ENGLAND
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-3)....
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (4-3)....
THE GOLD SHEET (24-23-1)... BALTY ...DENVER...UNDER DALLAS/PHILLY
THE RED SHEET 89* (1-0)...
THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)...
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (14-14)... GB ...SF
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (19-16-1)... SD....MIAMI
 

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KELSO 2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB

Sunday, December 28, 2008
NFL Upset Game Of The Year 100 Units Miami Dolphins (+3) over NY Jets
4:15 PM -- Meadowlands
Miami by 7-10
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the West at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
 
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Big Al

5* Buffalo
1* Minn
1* Arizona
1* San Fran
1* Cincy
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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Wild Bill

La Tech +1 1/2 (5 units)
on Louisiana turf and home field advantage basically for the Techsters....LT 24 NIU 20...

Detroit +9 1/2 (5 units)
Eagles -1 1/2 (5 units)
Giants +6 1/2 (5 units)
Carolina -2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 44 Rams-Falcons (5 units)
Chiefs +2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 35 1/2 Jags-Ravens (5 units)
Under 38 Titans-Colts (5 units)
Over 32 Browns-Steelers (5 units)
Jets -2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 41 Dolphins-Jets (5 units)
Bills +6 1/2 (5 units)
Broncos +8 (5 units)
Over 50 Broncos-Chargers (5 units)

7 pt teaser: Eagles +5 1/2, Giants +14, Over 28 Ravens-Jags, Over 34 Dolphins-Jets (5 units)
 
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Sports Consultants

Week 17 service plays


sunday night football
game of the week
5* chargers -8


1* lions +10.5
1* saints +2.5
1* pats -6
1* dolphins jets under 42
1* skins niners over 37
1* chiefs bengals over 37.5
1* broncos chargers under 50.5
1* bills pats over 40
1* falcons -14
 
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Firestone


Hello everyone,

Well, we got another BIG one today to close out the Football Season. Its actually one of the better week 17 cards I can remember. I can almost make a case for every game. But I wont...Only 5 of them (includes teaser) If I don't go 3-0 today, I SUCK!! Best of luck to all of you.....


Play the Niners -3 for 5 units : This one is up there guys with my 7 unit play from earlier in the year which lost...Hopefully ill make up for some of that with this one. Feel free to play this game with no limit! I can only make it a 5 unit play because I am obligated to stick to one 7 unit GOY per year. BUT THIS IS DAMN CLOSE

Key Reasons : We have two teams here going in the opposite direction, and for the Skins, going West is probably the worst thing possible. The Skins have no dropped 5 of their last 7 games, including a tilt with the Bengals which eliminated them from the Playoffs. So what did they do? Well, they came back the next week and won their final home game and probably (for the most part) returned the favor and eliminated their rival Eagles from the playoffs. Look, we have seen that scenario since we were kids. That's normal. HOWEVER, its what happens next that we have to capitalize. What on earth is there to gain here by traveling 3000 miles west to play a meaningless game against a Football team who is not going to the playoffs? This actually may be one of the most meaningless spots I have seen an NFL team make in my life. On the other side, NO, the Niners aren't playing for a playoff spot, but I can promise you one thing, they will be playing for Mike Singaltary's job. This guy has completely turned the Niners around in only 6 weeks. In those 6 weeks, the Niners are a very impressive 4-2 with their only two losses coming on the road in competitive games. In fact, this team has only played 2 Home games in that span, both double digit wins including an impressive one against the Jets. One thing this team has not stopped doing is playing hard. Nothing will change here in week 17, even though they are not heading to January. The Skins, we you can look for them to fold the tank after the first quarter. Their minds are already on NEW YEARS EVER. This one is TOO EASY boys

Prediction : Niners win 31-10



Play Arizona -6.5 for 3 units Key Reasons : I am not impressed at all about the Cards right now, as all they have done since clinching a Playoff spot has been losing two straight games by an average of 30 points. Are you kidding me? In fact, they really haven't looked impressive since Mid November as they have now dropped 4 of their last 5 games. Although this game doesn't mean a thing for the Cards, I do think there is some truth to the matter that they need to find something that works heading into the playoffs. You can not go in to a playoff game playing like this. I expect the Cards to come out in this game and score at will early like we all know they are capable of doing. Yes they will bench some or all of their starters in the second half but this game should be out of reach enough to where that doesn't matter. Look, for Seattle. last week was the swan song for Holmgren. His team stepped up for him at home and played like they should have played all season. Now they are in a spot similar to the Skins of having to play a meaningless road game in Week 17. Seattle has stepped up to win 2 straight games, and that's enough to buy them a pass in this one. Remember, we played against them last week because we though Favre would have a field day against their 32 ranked passing defense. Well, the heavy snow played havoc on that idea but the last time I checked the window of Cardinal stadium, it wasn't snowing. Yes, Warner will have a field day today and will put up at least 3 TD's before he exits. He threw for almost 400 yards in his last meeting with Seattle, and would easily do that again today if he played the whole game.

Prediction : Cards need a spark - They win by 24 here!



Play Tampa Bay -14 for 1.5 units Key Reasons : Talk about a team that needs to step up heading into the Playoffs? This is one of them. In fact, they will not go to the Playoffs unless they win this game and get some help. They have only themselves to blame for this Bronco-like choke, as they have lost 3 straight games, allowing an average of 30 points per game in the process. Well, if there wasn't enough motivation for the Bucs here in clinching a Playoff spot, how about Monte Kiffin getting some retribution against a Raider team who made Lane Kiffin look like PEE-WEE Herman. He will get every chance in the book to embarrass the Raiders like they embarrassed his son, and Oakland will probably allow it to happen beings that this is another team making a meaningless 3000 mile trip. The only difference here is that they will be going up against a team that needs this game in the worst way, and that's going to spell TROUBLE for the Raiders. In fact, I am not sure if the Raiders will even score in this one.

Prediction : Bucs win 34-3



Bonus 1 unit teaserPlay the Bills up to +11 with the Lions up to +17
I admire the way the Bills are playing right now for their coach, and at home they should make a case to play hard again trying to play spoiler and eliminate a division rival. With the Lions? WHY NOT! Can this team really go 0-16. Sure, but at least we have 16 points to play with.
 

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#305/312 - NFL - 3 units on (2 team teaser) on Dallas +7.5, New Orleans +7.5
#313 - NFL - 3 units on St. Louis +14.5
#326 - NFL - 5 units on Buffalo +5.5 (AFC Game of the Year)
#328 - NFL - 3 units on Arizona -6.5
#330 - NFL - 3 units on San Francisco -3
 

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