PICK: Houston Texans
Your pick will be graded at: -2.5 betED
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: NFL 3-Pack - INCLUDES 9* Game of the Month!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 9* NFL Game of the Month - Houston (-) vs. Chicago, 1:00 PM EST
We see great value here on the Texans, who are playing for a second straight .500 record season and hoping the crush the Bears playoff hopes. Everyone will be on Chicago because they need to win to have any chance at the post-season. Problem is, those teams that "have to win" don't always do so. This will be one of those games.
Houston is 4-1 in their last 5 games with a hiccup coming last week against the Raiders. The Texans are 5-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming against the Colts and the Ravens. The Bears are playing on a short weeks rest after getting beat up in a very emotional win vs. their bitter rival Packers on Monday Night last week in -5 degree temperature. The Bears are also coming off three straight home games including back-to-back overtime wins needed just to stay in the playoff race.
The Bears offense was anemic in the first 3 ½ quarters of the Packer game on Monday night before finally turning it on in the final minutes. Chicago has failed to reach 300 total yards in each of their past 4 games. If the Bears hope to stay in this game vs. the Texans they will need a better offensive performance. Houston is 3rd in the league in total offense and 4th in passing offense with Andre Johnson leading the NFL with 1427 yards receiving. That's not good news for the Bears, who give up the 3rd most passing yards per game, allowing 235 yards passing per game.
Rookie running back Steve Slaton is averaging over 100 yards rushing per game in the past 6 games and that is a big reason the Texans are 4-2 in that stretch; if Slaton can have that type of productivity vs. the Bears on Sunday, expect a big offensive day from the Texans. The Bears are just 3-4 on the road this season with the wins coming against relatively weak opponents: the Lions, Rams and the week 1 Colts (Indy started the season 3-4 before winning 8 straight). Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and we expect that trend to continue against the Bears on Sunday.
Smart money is all over Houston here as the line opened pick-em and now the Texans are -3. That's despite a majority of the bets actually coming in on Chicago as expected. Take the Texans.
Best of Luck, Lee.
<!-- / message -->
Your pick will be graded at: -2.5 betED
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: NFL 3-Pack - INCLUDES 9* Game of the Month!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 9* NFL Game of the Month - Houston (-) vs. Chicago, 1:00 PM EST
We see great value here on the Texans, who are playing for a second straight .500 record season and hoping the crush the Bears playoff hopes. Everyone will be on Chicago because they need to win to have any chance at the post-season. Problem is, those teams that "have to win" don't always do so. This will be one of those games.
Houston is 4-1 in their last 5 games with a hiccup coming last week against the Raiders. The Texans are 5-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming against the Colts and the Ravens. The Bears are playing on a short weeks rest after getting beat up in a very emotional win vs. their bitter rival Packers on Monday Night last week in -5 degree temperature. The Bears are also coming off three straight home games including back-to-back overtime wins needed just to stay in the playoff race.
The Bears offense was anemic in the first 3 ½ quarters of the Packer game on Monday night before finally turning it on in the final minutes. Chicago has failed to reach 300 total yards in each of their past 4 games. If the Bears hope to stay in this game vs. the Texans they will need a better offensive performance. Houston is 3rd in the league in total offense and 4th in passing offense with Andre Johnson leading the NFL with 1427 yards receiving. That's not good news for the Bears, who give up the 3rd most passing yards per game, allowing 235 yards passing per game.
Rookie running back Steve Slaton is averaging over 100 yards rushing per game in the past 6 games and that is a big reason the Texans are 4-2 in that stretch; if Slaton can have that type of productivity vs. the Bears on Sunday, expect a big offensive day from the Texans. The Bears are just 3-4 on the road this season with the wins coming against relatively weak opponents: the Lions, Rams and the week 1 Colts (Indy started the season 3-4 before winning 8 straight). Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and we expect that trend to continue against the Bears on Sunday.
Smart money is all over Houston here as the line opened pick-em and now the Texans are -3. That's despite a majority of the bets actually coming in on Chicago as expected. Take the Texans.
Best of Luck, Lee.
<!-- / message -->
PICK: Arizona Cardinals
Your pick will be graded at: -7 SPORTSBETTING
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: NFL 3-Pack - INCLUDES 9* Game of the Month!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Arizona (-) vs. Seattle, 4:15 PM EST
Last week Seattle had a very emotional home win vs. the Jets. Mike Holmgren coached his last game in Seattle and they sent him out in style with a 13-3 win. Players and coaches both mentioned that this was the biggest game for them because they wanted to send Holmgren out a winner. Now they have to travel to Arizona, a team in desperate need of a win to get back on track for the playoffs. Arizona has lost two straight games by a combined score of 82-21. The Cardinals are just 1-4 in their last 5 games and they will need (and get) a much-needed win to prepare for the playoffs.
Arizona is 5-2 at home this season; and they will be happy to return home after their snowy 47-7 loss @New England. The Cardinals were also without Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Boldin will be back this Sunday and we expect Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin to all get back on the same page heading into the playoffs. Warner averages 288 yards passing per game on an offense that ranks 5th in total yards per game and 5th in scoring offense. This isn’t good news for the Seahawks, who have injuries all over their defense and rank dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.
Arizona and Seattle last met on November 16 in Seattle. The Cardinals had no problems moving the football, amassing 458 total yards and 24 first downs, but settled for 4 field goals instead of touchdowns. They won 26-20 but it should’ve been a bigger margin of victory. Also in that game, Arizona allowed only 196 total yards to the Seahawks. We expect Arizona to dominate the stats again on Sunday and for the Cardinals to come out with another win. Seattle has lost the last two @Arizona and we expect that streak to continue. Go with the Cardinals.
Best of Luck, Lee.
<!-- / message -->
Your pick will be graded at: -7 SPORTSBETTING
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: NFL 3-Pack - INCLUDES 9* Game of the Month!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Arizona (-) vs. Seattle, 4:15 PM EST
Last week Seattle had a very emotional home win vs. the Jets. Mike Holmgren coached his last game in Seattle and they sent him out in style with a 13-3 win. Players and coaches both mentioned that this was the biggest game for them because they wanted to send Holmgren out a winner. Now they have to travel to Arizona, a team in desperate need of a win to get back on track for the playoffs. Arizona has lost two straight games by a combined score of 82-21. The Cardinals are just 1-4 in their last 5 games and they will need (and get) a much-needed win to prepare for the playoffs.
Arizona is 5-2 at home this season; and they will be happy to return home after their snowy 47-7 loss @New England. The Cardinals were also without Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Boldin will be back this Sunday and we expect Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin to all get back on the same page heading into the playoffs. Warner averages 288 yards passing per game on an offense that ranks 5th in total yards per game and 5th in scoring offense. This isn’t good news for the Seahawks, who have injuries all over their defense and rank dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.
Arizona and Seattle last met on November 16 in Seattle. The Cardinals had no problems moving the football, amassing 458 total yards and 24 first downs, but settled for 4 field goals instead of touchdowns. They won 26-20 but it should’ve been a bigger margin of victory. Also in that game, Arizona allowed only 196 total yards to the Seahawks. We expect Arizona to dominate the stats again on Sunday and for the Cardinals to come out with another win. Seattle has lost the last two @Arizona and we expect that streak to continue. Go with the Cardinals.
Best of Luck, Lee.
<!-- / message -->
PICK: San Francisco 49ers
Your pick will be graded at: -3 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: NFL 3-Pack - INCLUDES 9* Game of the Month!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 5* San Francisco (-) vs. Washington, 4:15 PM EST
The Niners just signed Head Coach Mike Singletary, agreeing to bring him back for the 2009 NFL season. It’s no question that San Francisco has been playing much more inspired football since the defensive minded Singletary took over. They are 4-2 in their past 6 games (4 away games, 2 home games) and allowing just 16 points per game in that span. Expect Singletary to have the 49ers ready to play and finish out the season on a good note heading into the 2009 season.
Washington started the season 6-2, but since then they have gone just 2-5. The Redskins just got a much-needed win against Philadelphia to stop a three game losing skid. They now have to travel to the west coast for an ultimately meaningless game vs. the suddenly inspired 49ers. Washington will likely have the mentality of a ‘good team’ that is going to miss the playoffs; therefore “what is there left to play for?” Expect the Redskins to be flat and for the Niners to take advantage of that and get the big win on Sunday.
Washington’s offense has turned off in the second half of the season. After averaging 21 points per game in their first 8 games, the Redskins have put up an average of just 10.8 points per game in their last 7 games (including 10 points or less in 5 of 7). Jason Campbell was supposed to have a breakout season under quarterback friendly Head Coach Jim Zorn, but he has failed to meet expectations. Campbell has thrown for just over 3000 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (with just 4 touchdowns and all 6 interceptions coming in the 2nd half of the season).
Washington is just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record and just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and we expect these trends to continue into Sunday. Look for the more inspired 49ers to get the win over the team with nothing to play for. Go with the Niners.
Best of Luck, Lee.
<!-- / message -->
Your pick will be graded at: -3 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: NFL 3-Pack - INCLUDES 9* Game of the Month!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 5* San Francisco (-) vs. Washington, 4:15 PM EST
The Niners just signed Head Coach Mike Singletary, agreeing to bring him back for the 2009 NFL season. It’s no question that San Francisco has been playing much more inspired football since the defensive minded Singletary took over. They are 4-2 in their past 6 games (4 away games, 2 home games) and allowing just 16 points per game in that span. Expect Singletary to have the 49ers ready to play and finish out the season on a good note heading into the 2009 season.
Washington started the season 6-2, but since then they have gone just 2-5. The Redskins just got a much-needed win against Philadelphia to stop a three game losing skid. They now have to travel to the west coast for an ultimately meaningless game vs. the suddenly inspired 49ers. Washington will likely have the mentality of a ‘good team’ that is going to miss the playoffs; therefore “what is there left to play for?” Expect the Redskins to be flat and for the Niners to take advantage of that and get the big win on Sunday.
Washington’s offense has turned off in the second half of the season. After averaging 21 points per game in their first 8 games, the Redskins have put up an average of just 10.8 points per game in their last 7 games (including 10 points or less in 5 of 7). Jason Campbell was supposed to have a breakout season under quarterback friendly Head Coach Jim Zorn, but he has failed to meet expectations. Campbell has thrown for just over 3000 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (with just 4 touchdowns and all 6 interceptions coming in the 2nd half of the season).
Washington is just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record and just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and we expect these trends to continue into Sunday. Look for the more inspired 49ers to get the win over the team with nothing to play for. Go with the Niners.
Best of Luck, Lee.
<!-- / message -->
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Arizona -6 vs Seattle
Pittsburgh/Cleveland Under 32
Single Plays
Houston -3 vs Chicago
Detroit +10 vs Green Bay
New Orleans +3 vs Carolina
Baltimore -12.5 vs Jacksonville
Buffalo +6 vs New England
San Francisco -3 vs Washington
Dallas/Philadelphia Over 43
Philadelphia -1.5 vs Dallas
Tennessee/Indy Under 38
<!-- / message -->
Double Plays
Arizona -6 vs Seattle
Pittsburgh/Cleveland Under 32
Single Plays
Houston -3 vs Chicago
Detroit +10 vs Green Bay
New Orleans +3 vs Carolina
Baltimore -12.5 vs Jacksonville
Buffalo +6 vs New England
San Francisco -3 vs Washington
Dallas/Philadelphia Over 43
Philadelphia -1.5 vs Dallas
Tennessee/Indy Under 38
<!-- / message -->
NELLYS GREENSHEET
Nelly’s Green Sheet = 9 -13 ( 5-6 SIDEs AND 4-7 TOTALs )
SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST: Any NCAA Bowl team that won two or
fewer games in the previous season.
PLAY AGAINST: Minnesota, Northern Illinois
(PLAY ON: Kansas, Louisiana Tech)
10-2, 83.3% since 2002
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2008 INDEPENDENCE BOWL 7:00 PM ESPN Northern Illinois (-2) Louisiana Tech (47)
The Independence Bowl has some great history and in the last four years this game has been decided by a touchdown or less featuring major conference teams such as Alabama, Oklahoma, Colorado, Missouri, and South Carolina. With due respect to Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech for making the postseason, bowl organizers and the Shreveport chamber of commerce have to greet this match-up with dread as neither the Big 12 or the SEC could fill this spot. Northern Illinois has had a remarkable season after just two wins in 2007 and with three losses by four points or less the Huskies nearly had an even stronger season. Louisiana Tech makes a short trip to play its first bowl game since 2001 and the Bulldogs are headed in the right direction with substantial improvement in each of the first two years for head coach Derek Dooley. Both teams run the ball effectively although the numbers give Northern Illinois a substantial edge on defense. Louisiana Tech faced a tougher schedule with several high powered offenses in the WAC and a tough non-conference schedule that hurt the statistics. Louisiana Tech typically enjoys a very strong home field edge and that advantage should carry over to some degree in this neutral but convenient venue for the Bulldogs. Northern Illinois has an experienced team but the Huskies closed the season losing three of the final four games while Louisiana Tech won four of the final five and nearly beat Nevada in the final game of the season. The Bulldogs should make the most of this opportunity. LA TECH 28-24
RATING 2: LOUISIANA TECH (+2) RATING 3: ‘OVER 47’
<!-- / message -->
Nelly’s Green Sheet = 9 -13 ( 5-6 SIDEs AND 4-7 TOTALs )
SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST: Any NCAA Bowl team that won two or
fewer games in the previous season.
PLAY AGAINST: Minnesota, Northern Illinois
(PLAY ON: Kansas, Louisiana Tech)
10-2, 83.3% since 2002
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2008 INDEPENDENCE BOWL 7:00 PM ESPN Northern Illinois (-2) Louisiana Tech (47)
The Independence Bowl has some great history and in the last four years this game has been decided by a touchdown or less featuring major conference teams such as Alabama, Oklahoma, Colorado, Missouri, and South Carolina. With due respect to Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech for making the postseason, bowl organizers and the Shreveport chamber of commerce have to greet this match-up with dread as neither the Big 12 or the SEC could fill this spot. Northern Illinois has had a remarkable season after just two wins in 2007 and with three losses by four points or less the Huskies nearly had an even stronger season. Louisiana Tech makes a short trip to play its first bowl game since 2001 and the Bulldogs are headed in the right direction with substantial improvement in each of the first two years for head coach Derek Dooley. Both teams run the ball effectively although the numbers give Northern Illinois a substantial edge on defense. Louisiana Tech faced a tougher schedule with several high powered offenses in the WAC and a tough non-conference schedule that hurt the statistics. Louisiana Tech typically enjoys a very strong home field edge and that advantage should carry over to some degree in this neutral but convenient venue for the Bulldogs. Northern Illinois has an experienced team but the Huskies closed the season losing three of the final four games while Louisiana Tech won four of the final five and nearly beat Nevada in the final game of the season. The Bulldogs should make the most of this opportunity. LA TECH 28-24
RATING 2: LOUISIANA TECH (+2) RATING 3: ‘OVER 47’
<!-- / message -->
MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK = 2-9
Sunday, December 28th
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Independence Stadium • Shreveport, LA
LOUISIANA TECH over No Illinois by 3
Here’s a matchup that provides indisputable proof that there are just
too many bowl games. Answer this question for bowl bragging rights
in your neighborhood: what’s the Over/Under on the number of fans
from NIU that will actually show up for this game? We’re thinking 14
– what’s your guess? Much like the Seminoles camping out in Orlando,
the Bulldogs should enjoy a huge edge in fan support here; Independence
Stadium is just over 60 miles down the road from the Techsters’ campus at Ruston. Regardless of the number of fans that show for this classic battle between Sports Illustrated’s 98th-ranked pre-season squad (NIU) and the 104th ranked team (La Tech), followers of HBO’s ‘True Blood’ will quickly abandon the game to disappear into the Shreveport night in search of the notorious vampire bar, Fangtasia (“Come on in… good luck gettin’
out”). Our advice is to steer clear of the fangbangers and prey instead on
Jerry Kill’s Sled Dogs: 1st year head coaches with a new team are just 23-
36-1 ATS in Bowl games. Granted, it’ll take some nerve to back a Bulldog
squad playing its 1st post-season game since the 2001 Humanitarian Bowl
– especially one that’s gone 4-14 SUATS in the last 18 games versus non-
WAC opposition – but we can’t see making a 6-6 team from up north a
road favorite at a deep-south venue like this. “Having an opportunity
to play in a bowl game in the city that boasts our largest alumni base is
tremendous,” said Louisiana Tech head coach Derek Dooley. “This is only
our 3rd Bowl since joining the FBS 20 years ago so I expect all our fans to
celebrate the continuing momentum of our program.” Yes, this could be
the worst canine confrontation since Michael Vick decided to moonlight
but we think the Ruston dogs and their #11 rush defense will earn ‘Best of
Show’ honors over their Huskie cousins here.
Sunday, December 28th
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Independence Stadium • Shreveport, LA
LOUISIANA TECH over No Illinois by 3
Here’s a matchup that provides indisputable proof that there are just
too many bowl games. Answer this question for bowl bragging rights
in your neighborhood: what’s the Over/Under on the number of fans
from NIU that will actually show up for this game? We’re thinking 14
– what’s your guess? Much like the Seminoles camping out in Orlando,
the Bulldogs should enjoy a huge edge in fan support here; Independence
Stadium is just over 60 miles down the road from the Techsters’ campus at Ruston. Regardless of the number of fans that show for this classic battle between Sports Illustrated’s 98th-ranked pre-season squad (NIU) and the 104th ranked team (La Tech), followers of HBO’s ‘True Blood’ will quickly abandon the game to disappear into the Shreveport night in search of the notorious vampire bar, Fangtasia (“Come on in… good luck gettin’
out”). Our advice is to steer clear of the fangbangers and prey instead on
Jerry Kill’s Sled Dogs: 1st year head coaches with a new team are just 23-
36-1 ATS in Bowl games. Granted, it’ll take some nerve to back a Bulldog
squad playing its 1st post-season game since the 2001 Humanitarian Bowl
– especially one that’s gone 4-14 SUATS in the last 18 games versus non-
WAC opposition – but we can’t see making a 6-6 team from up north a
road favorite at a deep-south venue like this. “Having an opportunity
to play in a bowl game in the city that boasts our largest alumni base is
tremendous,” said Louisiana Tech head coach Derek Dooley. “This is only
our 3rd Bowl since joining the FBS 20 years ago so I expect all our fans to
celebrate the continuing momentum of our program.” Yes, this could be
the worst canine confrontation since Michael Vick decided to moonlight
but we think the Ruston dogs and their #11 rush defense will earn ‘Best of
Show’ honors over their Huskie cousins here.
THE SPORTS MEMO = 6-5
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech +1.5 O/U 47
Sunday, December 28, 8:15 pm ET ESPN - Shreveport, La.
Recommendation: Louisiana Tech
In games against FBS competition, Northern Illinois’ victories came against teams with records of 4-8, 3-9, 6-6, 3-9 and 2-10. Their only win over an even semi-respectable opponent came at home on a last second field goal against Bowling Green. Throughout the season, the Huskies earned a reputation for playing solid defense and in the MAC they routinely ranked in the top tier in many defensive categories. But a closer examination shows that against the better offenses on the schedule, NIU was far from a defensive juggernaut. Against Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Minnesota, the Huskies allowed almost 35 points per game. Louisiana Tech’s resume isn’t great but with wins over Mississippi State, Fresno State and San Jose State, they have proved to be credible enough to compete and beat decent teams. As we turn to the fundamentals it should be noted that in Northern Illinois’ five FBS wins, they averaged 225 ypg on the ground. While on the surface that seems impressive, those five opponents showed no propensity for stopping the run this season as they allowed an average of 185 rushing yards per game. Louisiana
Tech has been up to the task this season with its rush defense, holding opponents to just slightly more than 100 yards per game. Tech’s ability to run the ball as well as contain the run should put the onus on Northern Illinois to play out of its comfort zone. In their last game of the season against Nevada, they held the Wolfpack, a team that averages 290 rushing yards per season, to just 103 yards. However, Tech still lost that game as Nevada was able to adjust and torch the Bulldogs’ defense for nearly 400 passing yards. Northern Illinois will not be able to duplicate that passing game success. Freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish with 478 rushing yards is more of a run-first type option. He has just seven passing touchdowns on the season. As further evidence of the weak passing
attack consider the fact that NIU doesn’t have a single receiver that ranks in the conference top ten in receptions or receiving yards per game. Offensively on the other side of the mix, Louisiana Tech is a completely
different team since Ross ******* replaced Tyler Bennett as the starting quarterback. A more conservative run-oriented offense emerged and Louisiana Tech averaged 220 yards per game on the ground over its last seven games. The end result improved as well as the Bulldogs closed the campaign on a 5-2 straight up run while winning three games outright as an underdog. Overall, on defense Northern Illinois is better than most of the WAC competition that Louisiana Tech faced but the fundamental strengths for each unit in this game all favor Tech. The Accu-Stat numbers project that the Bulldogs should out rush the Huskies and with a significant advantage in yards per rush on the defensive side they are a very live underdog. With home crowd advantage and a fundamental edge, we’ll play Louisiana Tech with confidence.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech +1.5 O/U 47
Sunday, December 28, 8:15 pm ET ESPN - Shreveport, La.
Recommendation: Louisiana Tech
In games against FBS competition, Northern Illinois’ victories came against teams with records of 4-8, 3-9, 6-6, 3-9 and 2-10. Their only win over an even semi-respectable opponent came at home on a last second field goal against Bowling Green. Throughout the season, the Huskies earned a reputation for playing solid defense and in the MAC they routinely ranked in the top tier in many defensive categories. But a closer examination shows that against the better offenses on the schedule, NIU was far from a defensive juggernaut. Against Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Minnesota, the Huskies allowed almost 35 points per game. Louisiana Tech’s resume isn’t great but with wins over Mississippi State, Fresno State and San Jose State, they have proved to be credible enough to compete and beat decent teams. As we turn to the fundamentals it should be noted that in Northern Illinois’ five FBS wins, they averaged 225 ypg on the ground. While on the surface that seems impressive, those five opponents showed no propensity for stopping the run this season as they allowed an average of 185 rushing yards per game. Louisiana
Tech has been up to the task this season with its rush defense, holding opponents to just slightly more than 100 yards per game. Tech’s ability to run the ball as well as contain the run should put the onus on Northern Illinois to play out of its comfort zone. In their last game of the season against Nevada, they held the Wolfpack, a team that averages 290 rushing yards per season, to just 103 yards. However, Tech still lost that game as Nevada was able to adjust and torch the Bulldogs’ defense for nearly 400 passing yards. Northern Illinois will not be able to duplicate that passing game success. Freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish with 478 rushing yards is more of a run-first type option. He has just seven passing touchdowns on the season. As further evidence of the weak passing
attack consider the fact that NIU doesn’t have a single receiver that ranks in the conference top ten in receptions or receiving yards per game. Offensively on the other side of the mix, Louisiana Tech is a completely
different team since Ross ******* replaced Tyler Bennett as the starting quarterback. A more conservative run-oriented offense emerged and Louisiana Tech averaged 220 yards per game on the ground over its last seven games. The end result improved as well as the Bulldogs closed the campaign on a 5-2 straight up run while winning three games outright as an underdog. Overall, on defense Northern Illinois is better than most of the WAC competition that Louisiana Tech faced but the fundamental strengths for each unit in this game all favor Tech. The Accu-Stat numbers project that the Bulldogs should out rush the Huskies and with a significant advantage in yards per rush on the defensive side they are a very live underdog. With home crowd advantage and a fundamental edge, we’ll play Louisiana Tech with confidence.
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA = 1-1
LOUISIANA TECH
We’re not quite sure why Northern Illinois is favored in the
December 28 Independence Bowl at Shreveport. Nearby Louisiana
Tech, the Huskies’ bowl foe, has played home/neutral games
at Independence Stadium before, and will be making the short trip
from Ruston for the game. And even if Shreveport isn’t the Bulldogs’
own on-campus Joe Aillet Stadium, it’s close enough for us to
consider La Tech a home/neutral dog for this game. Which means
we ought to pay serious attention to the fact the Bulldogs have
covered their last six chances as a home underdog. And there is
certainly no reason whatsoever to fear NIU, which not only dropped
4 of its last 5 games vs. the number this season, but historically has
been an underachiever as chalk (Huskies just 4-13 vs. number last
17 when favored).
<!-- / message -->
LOUISIANA TECH
We’re not quite sure why Northern Illinois is favored in the
December 28 Independence Bowl at Shreveport. Nearby Louisiana
Tech, the Huskies’ bowl foe, has played home/neutral games
at Independence Stadium before, and will be making the short trip
from Ruston for the game. And even if Shreveport isn’t the Bulldogs’
own on-campus Joe Aillet Stadium, it’s close enough for us to
consider La Tech a home/neutral dog for this game. Which means
we ought to pay serious attention to the fact the Bulldogs have
covered their last six chances as a home underdog. And there is
certainly no reason whatsoever to fear NIU, which not only dropped
4 of its last 5 games vs. the number this season, but historically has
been an underachiever as chalk (Huskies just 4-13 vs. number last
17 when favored).
<!-- / message -->
THE GOLD SHEET = 3-9
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
Sunday, December 28 Night at Shreveport, LA (FieldTurf)
*LOUISIANA TECH 26 - Northern Illinois 21—Jerry Kill’s first year at NIU has to be considered a success, as the Huskies bounced back from a 2-10 record to return to a bowl for the 3rd time in 5 years. NIU’s sporadic offense was a problem, as the Huskies were shut out by Navy in the season finale, and scored just 14 ppg in October & November games against Tennessee, Miami-Ohio, Bowling Green and Ball State. It’s doubtful NIU QB Chandler Harnish will suddenly “flip the switch” and successfully attack Louisiana Tech’s weak pass defense after Harnish threw for just 137 ypg in the Huskies’ last 7 games upon his return from injury. The NIU defense looks good on paper, ranking 16th in scoring defense, but further examination reveals Huskies did well facing bad offensive teams and “minor league” opposition, but failed to slow good offensive teams. La Tech’s jr. RB Daniel Porter came on in the second half of the season, churning for 115 ypg (6.4 ypc) in the last 7 games. That production boosted the
Bulldogs to a 4-1 SU mark down the stretch and their first bowl bid since 2001. Louisiana Tech ranks 116th against the pass, but not sure NIU has the receivers or QB to exploit that weakness. Improving Bulldog soph QB Ross has thrown just 2 ints. in his last 144 pass attempts, and is coming off a 258-yard, 2-TD performance against Nevada. Shreveport isn’t a dream destination for NIU fans, as ticket sales were extremely slow despite personal pleas from Kill. It’s doubtful the Huskies will sell
their allotment of 12,000 tickets. Conversely, a return to the bowl picture and the convenient location sparked sharp interest on the Louisiana Tech side, with reportedly brisk sales starting as soon as the game was announced. (DNP...SR: Louisiana Tech 5-1)
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
Sunday, December 28 Night at Shreveport, LA (FieldTurf)
*LOUISIANA TECH 26 - Northern Illinois 21—Jerry Kill’s first year at NIU has to be considered a success, as the Huskies bounced back from a 2-10 record to return to a bowl for the 3rd time in 5 years. NIU’s sporadic offense was a problem, as the Huskies were shut out by Navy in the season finale, and scored just 14 ppg in October & November games against Tennessee, Miami-Ohio, Bowling Green and Ball State. It’s doubtful NIU QB Chandler Harnish will suddenly “flip the switch” and successfully attack Louisiana Tech’s weak pass defense after Harnish threw for just 137 ypg in the Huskies’ last 7 games upon his return from injury. The NIU defense looks good on paper, ranking 16th in scoring defense, but further examination reveals Huskies did well facing bad offensive teams and “minor league” opposition, but failed to slow good offensive teams. La Tech’s jr. RB Daniel Porter came on in the second half of the season, churning for 115 ypg (6.4 ypc) in the last 7 games. That production boosted the
Bulldogs to a 4-1 SU mark down the stretch and their first bowl bid since 2001. Louisiana Tech ranks 116th against the pass, but not sure NIU has the receivers or QB to exploit that weakness. Improving Bulldog soph QB Ross has thrown just 2 ints. in his last 144 pass attempts, and is coming off a 258-yard, 2-TD performance against Nevada. Shreveport isn’t a dream destination for NIU fans, as ticket sales were extremely slow despite personal pleas from Kill. It’s doubtful the Huskies will sell
their allotment of 12,000 tickets. Conversely, a return to the bowl picture and the convenient location sparked sharp interest on the Louisiana Tech side, with reportedly brisk sales starting as soon as the game was announced. (DNP...SR: Louisiana Tech 5-1)
Logical Approach = 12-10 ( 5-6 SIDES AND 7-4 TOTALS )
Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA - Sunday, December 28, 2008
Both teams rebounded from losing seasons in 2007 to earn this Bowl bid. The site greatly favors Louisiana Tech and the crowd support for Northern Illinois is expected to be minimal. NIU does have an edge in recent Bowl experience, having gone to 3 straight Bowls before missing last season. Tech's most recent Bowl was back in 2001. Tech's best win this season came in their first game, a home win over Mississippi State, a team that went on to have a losing season but an SEC team nonetheless. NIU also played well against an SEC foe, losing 13-9 at Tennessee in mid season. The Huskies also lost at Minnesota to open the season. The fundamental matchups favor Louisiana Tech as Northern Illinois' passing attack is weak while LT's defensive weakness is against the pass. Similarly, Tech has a potent running attack and while NIU's seasonal stats are decent they allowed 3 of their last 4 foes to rush for over 215 yards. Northern Illinois did post the better overall defensive stats but their strength is against the pass. Tech is a running team and NIU is just average against the run. One are in which the Tech defense has excelled has been in allowing a meager 3.0 yards per rush, one of the lowest averages in the nation. While both teams figure to be excited to be here the site edge and the rarity of a Bowl game for Tech should add up to more intangibles favoring them. Louisiana Tech wins by 31-23, making
LOUISIANA TECH a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 1 Star Selection
<!-- / message -->
Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA - Sunday, December 28, 2008
Both teams rebounded from losing seasons in 2007 to earn this Bowl bid. The site greatly favors Louisiana Tech and the crowd support for Northern Illinois is expected to be minimal. NIU does have an edge in recent Bowl experience, having gone to 3 straight Bowls before missing last season. Tech's most recent Bowl was back in 2001. Tech's best win this season came in their first game, a home win over Mississippi State, a team that went on to have a losing season but an SEC team nonetheless. NIU also played well against an SEC foe, losing 13-9 at Tennessee in mid season. The Huskies also lost at Minnesota to open the season. The fundamental matchups favor Louisiana Tech as Northern Illinois' passing attack is weak while LT's defensive weakness is against the pass. Similarly, Tech has a potent running attack and while NIU's seasonal stats are decent they allowed 3 of their last 4 foes to rush for over 215 yards. Northern Illinois did post the better overall defensive stats but their strength is against the pass. Tech is a running team and NIU is just average against the run. One are in which the Tech defense has excelled has been in allowing a meager 3.0 yards per rush, one of the lowest averages in the nation. While both teams figure to be excited to be here the site edge and the rarity of a Bowl game for Tech should add up to more intangibles favoring them. Louisiana Tech wins by 31-23, making
LOUISIANA TECH a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 1 Star Selection
<!-- / message -->
