Joe Gavazzi | NFL Side
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Analysis: Steamroller Game of the Week Texans (-7)
At the beginning of the week, this was billed as a matchup of losing teams who were each featuring the face of their future in rookie QB Mettenberger (Tennessee) and 1st year starter QB Mallett (Houston). But an injury to Mallett thrusts QB Fitzpatrick into the starting role of signal caller. Regardless of who is at the controls for either team, the result of this contest will be proof positive that controlling the football overland is of utmost importance when considering point spread success in the NFL. Remember that teams who outrushed their opponent by 30 or more yards are a long term 75% ATS winner in the NFL. Teams who rush the ball for 30 or more times in an NFL game while their opponent does not are an over 80% winner. Correspondingly, teams who run the ball 22 or fewer times a game if their opponent does not are an over 80% Play Against. Now consider the following facts: for the season, the Titans rush the ball an average of only 22 times/game for 89/4.1. They allow opponents to run the ball 33 times/game on average for 145/4.4. That 56 yard negative differential in the run game is the largest negative difference of any team in the league (here’s a clue, Oakland is 2nd worst at 54 YPG). Thus, the Titans record of 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS should hardly come as a surprise. And the fact that QB Mettenberger has over 608 passing yards and 4 TDs in starts against Pittsburgh and Philly the last 2 weeks means little when you consider the Titans defense gave up 70 points in those 2 games, were outrushed 164-52 last week by Philly and 206-49 two weeks ago by the Steelers. With Houston running the ball an average of 32 times/game for 137/4.3 (3rd most yards in the league), it will be no surprise if, regardless who plays QB for Houston, that they steamroll the Titans at the point of attack, extend their series dominance to 7-1 ATS and repeat the 30-16 victory of October 26th at Tennessee.
Pick Made: Nov 29 2014 1:20PM PST
NFL Side
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Analysis: Perception/Reality Game Saints (+4.5)
Every week in the NFL Point spread Prognosis Newsletter, I isolate one game in which the public and line maker strongly prefer a given side, while their opponent has clearly fallen out of favor. Last week, the selection was on the Minnesota Vikings who cruised in under the number vs. Green Bay for yet another contrary winner in this category. This week’s selection is an easy choice for the public sees only one side to bet in this game.
A quick look at the NFL Divisional Standings sees that each of these teams is vying for Divisional supremacy. Yet there are not two more dichotomous Divisions in the League than the NFC South, where New Orleans resides, and the AFC North, home of the Pittsburgh Steelers. New Orleans enters the week tied for the Division lead with Atlanta at 4-7. Every team in the league is a loser with a combined record of 13-30-1 SU. Pittsburgh is ½ game behind Cincinnati for the Division lead. The four teams in this Division are a combined 28-15-1 SU. It is an easy leap for the public to play this short home favorite from a far stronger Division. But in the ebb and flow of the NFL, that would be a costly mistake for you to make.
Compounding the New Orleans record to date is their shocking current form. Three weeks ago, they entered a home game with San Francisco on a run of 20-0 SU, 18-2-1 ATS under their current HC Payton on their home field. But in the last three weeks, New Orleans went 0-3 SU, ATS on their home field. That is clearly not a team that lends itself to a lot of support. The nadir of their discontent came on MNF when they lost 34-27 to Baltimore. It was a game in which Baltimore rushed 32 times for 215 yards while New Orleans rushed just 21 times for 126 yards. Long term readers know that the 34-27 Baltimore victory was virtually inevitable. Now New Orleans must travel north on a short week knowing they are 2-9 SU, ATS away including just 1-4 SU away this year (victory over lowly Oakland). What chance would they have with a defense that allows 26 PPG and 6.3 DEF YPPL, the 2nd worst in the league?
Pittsburgh counters with an extra week of rest following their 27-24 MNF victory at Tennessee in which they completely dominated the Titans overland. The Steelers ran 36 times for 206 yards while the Titans ran just 15 times for 49 yards. Again, long term readers are not surprised by the SU result. The extra week off has also allowed time for an injured defense to return to health specifically Polamalu, Taylor and Shazier are all expected to return to action this week. That is a big boost against the passing game of QB Brees. The Steeler offense has exploded this season because of a now healthy offensive line. That has best played out in a most recent 3 game home stand, ending November 2nd, in which they totaled 124 points against Houston, Indianapolis and Baltimore. Scoring should be plentiful against the New Orleans stop unit.
Long time NFL followers realize, however, that “when it looks this easy, you must look the other way” considering the facts supporting our contrary New Orleans side. New Orleans has won and covered their last five games following an appearance on MNF. As well, NFL home teams who take to the road following three consecutive home defeats are a long term 62% play. For the Steelers, they bring a record of 5-13 ATS as non-division favorite into this contest. That fits well with the fact Pittsburgh is just 1-14 ATS as favorite in a game preceding a battle with their arch rival the Cincinnati Bengals. No surprise to this bureau if New Orleans wins this one outright.
Pick Made: Nov 29 2014 1:34PM PST
NFL Side
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Analysis: UNDERDOG Game of the Week Patriots (+3)
Each week in this missive, I isolate a premiere Underdog Play of the Week in the NFL. The reasons may be based in statistical advantages, it may be a strong situational play, and often it is backed up by meaningful technical data. In any case, the combination of those 3 basic reasons for favoring a Pro Football side give the bettor an outstanding opportunity to cash his underdog ticket. Today’s action takes us to the top of the NFL standings in a marquee matchup featuring two of the best signal callers, coaches and teams in the NFL. A quick review of the analysis below will allow the reader the confidence to pull the trigger on this Underdog selection.
Green Bay enters this match up at 8-3 SU leading Detroit by a single game in the loss column for Divisional superiority in the NFC North. Green Bay has won all 5 home games this season by margins of 7, 32, 21, 41 and 33 points. In so doing, they have averaged 44 PPG on this field. They are led by the strong passing game that is authored by QB Rodgers. Green Bay completes 69% of their passes for 8.1 PYPA and 262 PYPG. Their 32 PPG offense averages 6.3 OFF YPPL, tied for the best in Football. Green Bay enters the contest today on a 3 game winning streak beating Chicago by 41, Philadelphia by 33 before squeezing by Minnesota 24-21.
New England is even hotter than Green Bay. At 9-2 SU, New England is tied with Arizona for the best record in the NFL. As such, they hold the largest point differential of any team in the league at +130 points. New England has been super-hot of late in winning their previous 7 games. Yet this is a team who may still be peaking. New England’s previous 3 victories have all come against quality teams Denver, Indianapolis and Detroit. These teams are a combined 23-11 SU. Yet in those games, New England has won by a combined score of 119-50. In so doing, they have complimented the passing of Brady with a ground game that has averaged 153 YPG in those victories.
It is that ground game which provides us with our fundamental edge in this contest. For if there is a weak link in the Green Bay defense, it is a front seven that allows opponents to run the ball 31 times a game for 137/4.5. That is 3rd worst in the league. Adding technical support to this underdog selection is the strong record of the HC Belichick/ QB Brady duo when taking points. Note the long term record is 34-15 ATS as underdog including 17-4 ATS recently as well as 3-0 SU, ATS this year in the role of pick or underdog. From the fundamental and technical analysis above, it is clear that New England is your Top Dog of the Week.
Pick Made: Nov 29 2014 1:39PM PST
