Wunderdog Sports
Complimentary NFL Pick for November 2nd, 2014
Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Time: Sunday 11/02 8:30 PM Eastern
Pick: Baltimore -1 (-110) at Bovada
Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers offense threw a perfect game at Indianapolis. Big Ben was in the zone and his offensive line graded out higher in protection than any team in the NFL has so far this year. Big Ben was not sacked as clearly Pittsburgh figured out something against that Indy defense. The bad news for Pittsburgh is that despite throwing for over 500 yards and six TDs, this was a one-possession game in the fourth quarter, and therein lies the problem. When you score 55 points in a game, the second team should be on the field for most of the second half, not the first team fighting to hold an 8-point lead. Big Ben's historic day masked the Steelers' defensive issues, and Baltimore will be ready to take advantage of that this week. Baltimore has held Pittsburgh to an average of 15.9 points per game in the last 12 regular season meetings so don't expect a repeat performance from Roethlisberger in this one. The Ravens have committed just three turnovers in the meetings to Pittsburgh's' 19, and Pittsburgh has thrown for over 300 yards just once. A bigger problem is the fact that Pittsburgh's' last three opponents have thrown for 9.35 yards per attempt, which is Hall of Fame material. Cortez Allen has been targeted 60 times this season (third highest in the NFL) and Joe Flacco will be looking that way as he has been brutal. Baltimore's offensive line is vastly improved this season, and that is why Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense is thriving. Flacco was sacked 48 times last season, but just nine this year. The Ravens are quietly playing some of the best football in the NFL, outscoring opponents 27-16 on average. Meanwhile, Pitt is giving up nearly 30 points per game over their last three games. Under Jon Harbaugh, the Ravens are 58-14 straight-up as a favorite and 11-2 coming off an upset loss. Meanwhile under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 9-19 ATS after a big 14+ point win. Sell high on Pittsburgh and take the Ravens in this one.
Complimentary NFL Pick for November 2nd, 2014
Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Time: Sunday 11/02 8:30 PM Eastern
Pick: Baltimore -1 (-110) at Bovada
Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers offense threw a perfect game at Indianapolis. Big Ben was in the zone and his offensive line graded out higher in protection than any team in the NFL has so far this year. Big Ben was not sacked as clearly Pittsburgh figured out something against that Indy defense. The bad news for Pittsburgh is that despite throwing for over 500 yards and six TDs, this was a one-possession game in the fourth quarter, and therein lies the problem. When you score 55 points in a game, the second team should be on the field for most of the second half, not the first team fighting to hold an 8-point lead. Big Ben's historic day masked the Steelers' defensive issues, and Baltimore will be ready to take advantage of that this week. Baltimore has held Pittsburgh to an average of 15.9 points per game in the last 12 regular season meetings so don't expect a repeat performance from Roethlisberger in this one. The Ravens have committed just three turnovers in the meetings to Pittsburgh's' 19, and Pittsburgh has thrown for over 300 yards just once. A bigger problem is the fact that Pittsburgh's' last three opponents have thrown for 9.35 yards per attempt, which is Hall of Fame material. Cortez Allen has been targeted 60 times this season (third highest in the NFL) and Joe Flacco will be looking that way as he has been brutal. Baltimore's offensive line is vastly improved this season, and that is why Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense is thriving. Flacco was sacked 48 times last season, but just nine this year. The Ravens are quietly playing some of the best football in the NFL, outscoring opponents 27-16 on average. Meanwhile, Pitt is giving up nearly 30 points per game over their last three games. Under Jon Harbaugh, the Ravens are 58-14 straight-up as a favorite and 11-2 coming off an upset loss. Meanwhile under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 9-19 ATS after a big 14+ point win. Sell high on Pittsburgh and take the Ravens in this one.
Randall the Handle's Week 9 NFL selections
BEST BETS
Buccaneers 1-6 at Browns 4-3
LINE: CLEVELAND BY 6 1/2
When you think of a Florida-based team that is dead last in both offence and defence in addition to being 31st in point differential, Jacksonville likely comes to mind. However, you'd be insulting the Jaguars because it is this Tampa Bay squad that owns such dubious distinctions. Only the Raiders and Bucs average less than 300 yards on offence per game while the Falcons and Bucs are the only pair that give up more than 400 yards per contest. It's not easy to get behind a team that is so poor on both sides of the ball. QB Mike Glennon was relegated to back up at the start of the year, but Josh McCown's ineptitude has thrust him back into action. Tampa's passing game is so weak, you have to go all the way to 52nd before finding a Tampa receiver on the yardage list. Vincent Jackson sits there, averaging a paltry 51 yards per game. Of course, there is risk in spotting too many points with the Browns but they are 3-1 at home, Brian Hoyer has thrown just two interceptions in 218 pass attempts and Tampa has no pass rush to harass the Brownies.
TAKING: BROWNS -6 1/2
Eagles 5-2 at Texans 4-4
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 2
Rock breaks scissors, scissors cuts paper, defence trumps offence. Those being the rules, having a stronger defensive team taking points to this haphazard Eagles team, we intend to play by those rules. While the raw numbers may not illustrate a superior defence here, Houston clearly has the better stop unit and with Jadeveon Clowney back for the second week after recovering from a knee injury, J.J. Watt and Clowney figure to be too much for Philadelphia's suspect offensive line to deal with. It won't help that QB Nick Foles has been erratic with an unimpressive 59% completion rate and his team ranks dead last in red zone touchdowns. The scheduling of this one also does Philly no favours. The Eagles just lost a tough game in Arizona and they'll travel on consecutive weeks. They'll look forward to returning home for the first time in a month next week as they host the Panthers in the Monday nighter, only to be followed by a trip to Lambeau. Conversely, the Texans are home after splitting two away games (a loss at Pittsburgh despite outplaying the Steelers) and their only defeat here was at the hands of the Colts.
TAKING: TEXANS +2
Ravens 5-3 at Steelers 5-3
LINE: BALTIMORE by 1
Sometimes, the point spread tells you which team to take. This is one of those occasions. Folks are high on the Steelers after witnessing Ben Roethlisberger throw for insane numbers (40 of 49 for 522 yards and six TDs) against the Colts last week while the Ravens were losing to a Bengals team that had been in a funk. Yet, Baltimore is actually favoured in this game at Pittsburgh? Isn't it always three points for the home team in this heated rivalry? Perhaps the oddsmakers remember the 26-6 thrashing that the Ravens laid on these Steelers in Week 2. Or could it be Pittsburgh's home loss to the one-win Buccaneers? If any team knows how to slow down Big Ben's offence, it's this Baltimore club. In their past 12 meetings, Pittsburgh has averaged just over 15 points per game. The Steelers didn't even make it to the end zone in that earlier tussle. Masked in Pittsburgh's offensive barrage last week was their inability to play defence, namely at the cornerback position where coach Mike Tomlin continues to jockey players around in an attempt to correct that inefficiency. Baltimore figures to take full advantage as will we.
TAKING: RAVENS -1
THE REST
Chargers 5-3 at Dolphins 4-3
LINE: MIAMI by 1 1/2
There's no shame losing to the Chiefs and Broncos recently as the Chargers have done their past two games, but that doesn't mean there aren't concerns. San Diego is hurting -- down to rookie running back Branden Oliver, who may be talented, but is still cutting his teeth. DB Brandon Flowers makes a huge difference and he's on the shelf along with other significant defensive players. Even though QB Philip Rivers is having an outstanding campaign, his offensive line has not been good and they figure to have their hands full with Miami's talented and aggressive pass rush. The Dolphins' defence is an unheralded group but is strong in all facets. That should be the difference in this one.
TAKING: DOLPHINS -1 1/2
Jaguars 1-7 at Bengals 4-2-1
LINE: CINCINNATI by 11
Human nature applies to athletes and, say what you will, but it is difficult to get up emotionally when playing these Jaguars. We've seen superior teams have brain cramps against them and this one sets up really well for the Bengals to fall victim to. A slumping Cincinnati team earned a monstrous win over division- leading Ravens last week. After this one, they are on a short week before hosting divisional contending Browns. Not only will the Bengals still be without top receiver A.J. Green, they've now lost defensive leader Vontaze Burfict for a few games. Yes, the Jags have won just five of their past 19 games but their defence has been noticeably better, holding three of their past four foes to fewer than 18 points.
TAKING: JAGUARS +11
Redskins 3-5 at Vikings 3-5
LINE: Even
Robert Griffin III returns to the field and while it makes for good headlines, we're not so sure it helps the Redskins in the short term. Let's not forget that RG3 has just one win in his past seven starts and that was this year's opener versus Jacksonville. It's also not an ideal scheduling situation for the Redskins, having to travel on a short week, following an emotional road win in Dallas on Monday. The Vikings return home after two away and while they retool their offence, the defence has seen significant improvement under defensive-minded Mike Zimmer. These two have faced off each of the past four years with the Vikings taking three of the four. No reason they can't do the same here and a win earns us a cover.
TAKING: VIKINGS Even
Jets 1-7 at Chiefs 4-3
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 9 1/2
Spotting prohibitive points with the Chiefs might be considered risky, but it sure beats jumping on this Jets train wreck. Kansas City has been playing very well, winning five of six after an 0-2 start. But this isn't about them as much as it is a fade of Rex Ryan's team. The Jets keep turning the ball over and while that can be random among teams, New York's personnel is more prone to it than others. QB Geno Smith was the ringleader but replacing him with 34-year old Michael Vick hardly figures to correct things. The Jets are vulnerable on defence as well, allowing at least 24 points to seven of eight opponents and 30+ four more times. Jets have just one interception on the year!
TAKING: CHIEFS -9 1/2
Rams 2-5 at 49ers 4-3
LINE: SAN FRANCISCO by 10
Many are pointing at St. Louis' sudden rash of injuries but as valid as that might be, the Niners' infirmary is just as busy. In what looks to be a battle of attrition, prefer to accept the double-digits being offered especially with the familiarity factor here. These two hooked up just three weeks ago and the Rams had San Fran on the ropes before self-destructing on a bunch of blunders that led to a 34-17 win, the Niners with a late pick six for the cover. The 49ers have been favoured in six of seven games played so far, but they've spotted more than 4 1/2 only once, resulting in a 28-20 straight-up loss to the Bears as a seven-point choice.
TAKING: RAMS +10
Broncos 6-1 at Patriots 6-2
LINE: DENVER by 3
Let's see. There are three late afternoon games. Do we watch Rams at Niners, Raiders at Seahawks or this one? While history will support the Patriots taking home points, the Broncos are clearly the best team in the NFL right now and giving away just a field goal no matter who the opponent might be seems like the prudent play. At full strength, New England would still be up against it here. But with some key pieces like LB Jerod Mayo and RB Steven Ridley sidelined, it will be that much tougher. Denver has been crushing teams. It has improved on defence and the offence is loaded with weapons. History may point to Tom Brady but current form points to the visitor.
TAKING: BRONCOS -3
Raiders 0-7 at Seahawks 4-3
LINE: SEATTLE by 15
A rookie quarterback on a winless team heading into CenturyLink? It's a tough sell, we know. But spotting huge points like this in the NFL is hazardous. Besides, it's not like the Seahawks are rocking and rolling like they were a year ago. They had lost consecutive games before squeaking by the defenceless Panthers last week. Seattle brass has tried to gloss over their departures and injured players but it doesn't wash. The Seahawks defence that led the league a year ago with 39 takeaways is currently tied for 28th with just seven turnovers through seven games. Seattle's passing game has taken a hit as well with both Golden Tate and Percy Harvin playing elsewhere.
TAKING: RAIDERS +15
Colts 5-3 at Giants 3-4
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 3
It's feast or famine with the Giants as they either win or get crushed. All four of the G-Men's defeats have been by 10 or more and now they get an angry Colts squad that was embarrassed in Pittsburgh last week. Prefer to hitch our wagon to Andrew Luck and his mates than this erratic New York bunch as Indy had won five straight before getting trounced last Sunday. Indianapolis has shown a penchant for bouncing back as it has won 13 of 14 after a loss. The Giants return from a bye but they are still minus some key players and they had dropped a pair by a combined 58-21 prior to their week off. The Colts should get back in win column here.
TAKING: COLTS -3
BEST BETS
Buccaneers 1-6 at Browns 4-3
LINE: CLEVELAND BY 6 1/2
When you think of a Florida-based team that is dead last in both offence and defence in addition to being 31st in point differential, Jacksonville likely comes to mind. However, you'd be insulting the Jaguars because it is this Tampa Bay squad that owns such dubious distinctions. Only the Raiders and Bucs average less than 300 yards on offence per game while the Falcons and Bucs are the only pair that give up more than 400 yards per contest. It's not easy to get behind a team that is so poor on both sides of the ball. QB Mike Glennon was relegated to back up at the start of the year, but Josh McCown's ineptitude has thrust him back into action. Tampa's passing game is so weak, you have to go all the way to 52nd before finding a Tampa receiver on the yardage list. Vincent Jackson sits there, averaging a paltry 51 yards per game. Of course, there is risk in spotting too many points with the Browns but they are 3-1 at home, Brian Hoyer has thrown just two interceptions in 218 pass attempts and Tampa has no pass rush to harass the Brownies.
TAKING: BROWNS -6 1/2
Eagles 5-2 at Texans 4-4
LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 2
Rock breaks scissors, scissors cuts paper, defence trumps offence. Those being the rules, having a stronger defensive team taking points to this haphazard Eagles team, we intend to play by those rules. While the raw numbers may not illustrate a superior defence here, Houston clearly has the better stop unit and with Jadeveon Clowney back for the second week after recovering from a knee injury, J.J. Watt and Clowney figure to be too much for Philadelphia's suspect offensive line to deal with. It won't help that QB Nick Foles has been erratic with an unimpressive 59% completion rate and his team ranks dead last in red zone touchdowns. The scheduling of this one also does Philly no favours. The Eagles just lost a tough game in Arizona and they'll travel on consecutive weeks. They'll look forward to returning home for the first time in a month next week as they host the Panthers in the Monday nighter, only to be followed by a trip to Lambeau. Conversely, the Texans are home after splitting two away games (a loss at Pittsburgh despite outplaying the Steelers) and their only defeat here was at the hands of the Colts.
TAKING: TEXANS +2
Ravens 5-3 at Steelers 5-3
LINE: BALTIMORE by 1
Sometimes, the point spread tells you which team to take. This is one of those occasions. Folks are high on the Steelers after witnessing Ben Roethlisberger throw for insane numbers (40 of 49 for 522 yards and six TDs) against the Colts last week while the Ravens were losing to a Bengals team that had been in a funk. Yet, Baltimore is actually favoured in this game at Pittsburgh? Isn't it always three points for the home team in this heated rivalry? Perhaps the oddsmakers remember the 26-6 thrashing that the Ravens laid on these Steelers in Week 2. Or could it be Pittsburgh's home loss to the one-win Buccaneers? If any team knows how to slow down Big Ben's offence, it's this Baltimore club. In their past 12 meetings, Pittsburgh has averaged just over 15 points per game. The Steelers didn't even make it to the end zone in that earlier tussle. Masked in Pittsburgh's offensive barrage last week was their inability to play defence, namely at the cornerback position where coach Mike Tomlin continues to jockey players around in an attempt to correct that inefficiency. Baltimore figures to take full advantage as will we.
TAKING: RAVENS -1
THE REST
Chargers 5-3 at Dolphins 4-3
LINE: MIAMI by 1 1/2
There's no shame losing to the Chiefs and Broncos recently as the Chargers have done their past two games, but that doesn't mean there aren't concerns. San Diego is hurting -- down to rookie running back Branden Oliver, who may be talented, but is still cutting his teeth. DB Brandon Flowers makes a huge difference and he's on the shelf along with other significant defensive players. Even though QB Philip Rivers is having an outstanding campaign, his offensive line has not been good and they figure to have their hands full with Miami's talented and aggressive pass rush. The Dolphins' defence is an unheralded group but is strong in all facets. That should be the difference in this one.
TAKING: DOLPHINS -1 1/2
Jaguars 1-7 at Bengals 4-2-1
LINE: CINCINNATI by 11
Human nature applies to athletes and, say what you will, but it is difficult to get up emotionally when playing these Jaguars. We've seen superior teams have brain cramps against them and this one sets up really well for the Bengals to fall victim to. A slumping Cincinnati team earned a monstrous win over division- leading Ravens last week. After this one, they are on a short week before hosting divisional contending Browns. Not only will the Bengals still be without top receiver A.J. Green, they've now lost defensive leader Vontaze Burfict for a few games. Yes, the Jags have won just five of their past 19 games but their defence has been noticeably better, holding three of their past four foes to fewer than 18 points.
TAKING: JAGUARS +11
Redskins 3-5 at Vikings 3-5
LINE: Even
Robert Griffin III returns to the field and while it makes for good headlines, we're not so sure it helps the Redskins in the short term. Let's not forget that RG3 has just one win in his past seven starts and that was this year's opener versus Jacksonville. It's also not an ideal scheduling situation for the Redskins, having to travel on a short week, following an emotional road win in Dallas on Monday. The Vikings return home after two away and while they retool their offence, the defence has seen significant improvement under defensive-minded Mike Zimmer. These two have faced off each of the past four years with the Vikings taking three of the four. No reason they can't do the same here and a win earns us a cover.
TAKING: VIKINGS Even
Jets 1-7 at Chiefs 4-3
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 9 1/2
Spotting prohibitive points with the Chiefs might be considered risky, but it sure beats jumping on this Jets train wreck. Kansas City has been playing very well, winning five of six after an 0-2 start. But this isn't about them as much as it is a fade of Rex Ryan's team. The Jets keep turning the ball over and while that can be random among teams, New York's personnel is more prone to it than others. QB Geno Smith was the ringleader but replacing him with 34-year old Michael Vick hardly figures to correct things. The Jets are vulnerable on defence as well, allowing at least 24 points to seven of eight opponents and 30+ four more times. Jets have just one interception on the year!
TAKING: CHIEFS -9 1/2
Rams 2-5 at 49ers 4-3
LINE: SAN FRANCISCO by 10
Many are pointing at St. Louis' sudden rash of injuries but as valid as that might be, the Niners' infirmary is just as busy. In what looks to be a battle of attrition, prefer to accept the double-digits being offered especially with the familiarity factor here. These two hooked up just three weeks ago and the Rams had San Fran on the ropes before self-destructing on a bunch of blunders that led to a 34-17 win, the Niners with a late pick six for the cover. The 49ers have been favoured in six of seven games played so far, but they've spotted more than 4 1/2 only once, resulting in a 28-20 straight-up loss to the Bears as a seven-point choice.
TAKING: RAMS +10
Broncos 6-1 at Patriots 6-2
LINE: DENVER by 3
Let's see. There are three late afternoon games. Do we watch Rams at Niners, Raiders at Seahawks or this one? While history will support the Patriots taking home points, the Broncos are clearly the best team in the NFL right now and giving away just a field goal no matter who the opponent might be seems like the prudent play. At full strength, New England would still be up against it here. But with some key pieces like LB Jerod Mayo and RB Steven Ridley sidelined, it will be that much tougher. Denver has been crushing teams. It has improved on defence and the offence is loaded with weapons. History may point to Tom Brady but current form points to the visitor.
TAKING: BRONCOS -3
Raiders 0-7 at Seahawks 4-3
LINE: SEATTLE by 15
A rookie quarterback on a winless team heading into CenturyLink? It's a tough sell, we know. But spotting huge points like this in the NFL is hazardous. Besides, it's not like the Seahawks are rocking and rolling like they were a year ago. They had lost consecutive games before squeaking by the defenceless Panthers last week. Seattle brass has tried to gloss over their departures and injured players but it doesn't wash. The Seahawks defence that led the league a year ago with 39 takeaways is currently tied for 28th with just seven turnovers through seven games. Seattle's passing game has taken a hit as well with both Golden Tate and Percy Harvin playing elsewhere.
TAKING: RAIDERS +15
Colts 5-3 at Giants 3-4
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 3
It's feast or famine with the Giants as they either win or get crushed. All four of the G-Men's defeats have been by 10 or more and now they get an angry Colts squad that was embarrassed in Pittsburgh last week. Prefer to hitch our wagon to Andrew Luck and his mates than this erratic New York bunch as Indy had won five straight before getting trounced last Sunday. Indianapolis has shown a penchant for bouncing back as it has won 13 of 14 after a loss. The Giants return from a bye but they are still minus some key players and they had dropped a pair by a combined 58-21 prior to their week off. The Colts should get back in win column here.
TAKING: COLTS -3
Game of the Day: Broncos at Patriots
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 54)
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will inevitably end up in the NFL Hall of Fame together and have been compared to each other since the former burst onto the scene in 2001. The two star quarterbacks continue their rivalry when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. As usual, Brady and Manning have their respective teams near the top of the AFC and Sunday’s meeting could have implications on postseason seeding down the line.
Brady’s teams have defeated Manning’s 10 out of the 15 meetings, but the Broncos got the big win when it counted in the AFC Championship game last season. “Peyton has been a phenomenal player – so consistent and durable for a long period,” Brady told reporters. “We've had a great rivalry. ... He’s always been someone I've really looked up to and admired.” Denver owns the best record in the AFC and joins New England in entering the weekend on a four-game winning streak.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE HISTORY: Vegas books opened the Broncos as 3-point road faves and that hasn't moved. The total opened 55 and is down to 54.
INJURY REPORT: Broncos - RB Montee Ball (Questionable, groin), CB Omar Bolden (Questionable, concussion), LB Steven Johnson (Questionable, ankle). Patiots - DB Nate Ebner (Questionable, finger), OL Cameron Fleming (Questionble finger).
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-30s with a 31 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.75) + Patriots (-3.75) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -2.0
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver has won and covered four straight and heads to New England for just its third road game. 9-20 ATS in the last 29 road games versus a team with a winning home record. New England on a four-game winning streak after 2-2 start and plays Denver in its third-straight home game. 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points." Matt Fargo.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Broncos -3.5 (+100) / Pats +3.5 (-120) and we saw mostly Broncos money at that price. We went to -3.5 -105 and eventually -3.5 flat on the game and that’s when we took a decent size bet from one of sharper players. We went back to Broncos -3.5 and that same sharp bettor took the Pat’s again at that new price, that forced us to get down to 3-flat on this game, which is our current number. Since going to 3-flat though we’ve seen a huge rise in Broncos support and I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually get back to 3.5 on this game. Obviously we hate moving off and on this very key number of 3, so we’ll get to -3 (-120) before going back to 3, but currently we’ve moved it from 3 flat to Broncos -3 (-115) for now." Michael Stewart.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Denver received a few extra days to prepare after playing the Thursday night game on Oct. 23 and has looked even better than the team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Defensive end Von Miller, who sat out the win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Month for October with seven sacks and cornerback Aqib Talib, who made the Pro Bowl as a member of New England in 2013, is now on the Broncos’ side. “I think they’re forming their identity,” Manning told reporters of the defense. “There is no question they’re playing with confidence, and that’s what you want.”
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): New England’s rise over the last few weeks can be directly linked to the return to health of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was limited the first month while recovering from a knee injury that knocked him out of the 2013 campaign. The player that delivered the hit that tore up Gronkowski’s knee, safety T.J. Ward, is now with the Broncos, and the Patriots’ star has been avoiding making any statements directly about Ward. Gronkowski’s statements on the field have been loud, and he is coming off a three-TD performance in last week's 51-23 victory over the Chicago Bears.
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in New England.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
CONSENSUS: 53 percent of wagers are backing the visiting Broncos.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 54)
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will inevitably end up in the NFL Hall of Fame together and have been compared to each other since the former burst onto the scene in 2001. The two star quarterbacks continue their rivalry when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. As usual, Brady and Manning have their respective teams near the top of the AFC and Sunday’s meeting could have implications on postseason seeding down the line.
Brady’s teams have defeated Manning’s 10 out of the 15 meetings, but the Broncos got the big win when it counted in the AFC Championship game last season. “Peyton has been a phenomenal player – so consistent and durable for a long period,” Brady told reporters. “We've had a great rivalry. ... He’s always been someone I've really looked up to and admired.” Denver owns the best record in the AFC and joins New England in entering the weekend on a four-game winning streak.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE HISTORY: Vegas books opened the Broncos as 3-point road faves and that hasn't moved. The total opened 55 and is down to 54.
INJURY REPORT: Broncos - RB Montee Ball (Questionable, groin), CB Omar Bolden (Questionable, concussion), LB Steven Johnson (Questionable, ankle). Patiots - DB Nate Ebner (Questionable, finger), OL Cameron Fleming (Questionble finger).
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-30s with a 31 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.75) + Patriots (-3.75) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -2.0
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver has won and covered four straight and heads to New England for just its third road game. 9-20 ATS in the last 29 road games versus a team with a winning home record. New England on a four-game winning streak after 2-2 start and plays Denver in its third-straight home game. 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points." Matt Fargo.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Broncos -3.5 (+100) / Pats +3.5 (-120) and we saw mostly Broncos money at that price. We went to -3.5 -105 and eventually -3.5 flat on the game and that’s when we took a decent size bet from one of sharper players. We went back to Broncos -3.5 and that same sharp bettor took the Pat’s again at that new price, that forced us to get down to 3-flat on this game, which is our current number. Since going to 3-flat though we’ve seen a huge rise in Broncos support and I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually get back to 3.5 on this game. Obviously we hate moving off and on this very key number of 3, so we’ll get to -3 (-120) before going back to 3, but currently we’ve moved it from 3 flat to Broncos -3 (-115) for now." Michael Stewart.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Denver received a few extra days to prepare after playing the Thursday night game on Oct. 23 and has looked even better than the team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Defensive end Von Miller, who sat out the win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Month for October with seven sacks and cornerback Aqib Talib, who made the Pro Bowl as a member of New England in 2013, is now on the Broncos’ side. “I think they’re forming their identity,” Manning told reporters of the defense. “There is no question they’re playing with confidence, and that’s what you want.”
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): New England’s rise over the last few weeks can be directly linked to the return to health of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was limited the first month while recovering from a knee injury that knocked him out of the 2013 campaign. The player that delivered the hit that tore up Gronkowski’s knee, safety T.J. Ward, is now with the Broncos, and the Patriots’ star has been avoiding making any statements directly about Ward. Gronkowski’s statements on the field have been loud, and he is coming off a three-TD performance in last week's 51-23 victory over the Chicago Bears.
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in New England.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
CONSENSUS: 53 percent of wagers are backing the visiting Broncos.
StatFox Super Situations
NFL | BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.6 units )
NFL | ARIZONA at DALLAS
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) in conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival
53-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.9% | 0.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 versus division opponents, off a upset win as an underdog
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )
NFL | DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
Play On - Any team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) mistake-free team (<=1.25 TO/game committed) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
64-25 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 0.0 units )
9-6 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.6 units )
NFL | ARIZONA at DALLAS
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) in conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival
53-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.9% | 0.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 versus division opponents, off a upset win as an underdog
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )
NFL | DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
Play On - Any team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) mistake-free team (<=1.25 TO/game committed) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
64-25 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 0.0 units )
9-6 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.0 units )
Gold Sheet Extra
Denver/New England...OverNot much arm-twisting required for us to buy the “over” argument whenDenver and New England square off on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Both
have been among the premier “over” teams in the NFL for the past several
years. The Patriots’ long-established “over” trend has resurfaced with
“overs” in five straight, pushing the regular-season “over” mark to an eye-
opening 50-21 since the start of the 2010 campaign! Meanwhile, the Broncos
are trending “over” again (four straight) after a brief “under” interlude, and
now 49-26-1 “over” in regular-season play since late in 2009. These two are
also “over” in their three regular-season games since 2011.
Indy/NYG.....Over
Another “over” trendsetter lately has been Indianapolis, which invadesthe Meadowlands on Monday for a clash at MetLife Stadium vs. the NY
Giants. After easily blowing “over” last week vs. the Steelers, Indy is “over”
5-2-1 this season and “over” 7-2-1 its last ten since late in the 2013 campaign.
The Colts are also “over” 8-1-1 their last ten away form Lucas Oil Stadium
Denver/New England...OverNot much arm-twisting required for us to buy the “over” argument whenDenver and New England square off on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Both
have been among the premier “over” teams in the NFL for the past several
years. The Patriots’ long-established “over” trend has resurfaced with
“overs” in five straight, pushing the regular-season “over” mark to an eye-
opening 50-21 since the start of the 2010 campaign! Meanwhile, the Broncos
are trending “over” again (four straight) after a brief “under” interlude, and
now 49-26-1 “over” in regular-season play since late in 2009. These two are
also “over” in their three regular-season games since 2011.
Indy/NYG.....Over
Another “over” trendsetter lately has been Indianapolis, which invadesthe Meadowlands on Monday for a clash at MetLife Stadium vs. the NY
Giants. After easily blowing “over” last week vs. the Steelers, Indy is “over”
5-2-1 this season and “over” 7-2-1 its last ten since late in the 2013 campaign.
The Colts are also “over” 8-1-1 their last ten away form Lucas Oil Stadium
