SPORTS ADVISORS
Denver (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS)
The beyond-surprising Falcons pursue their fifth win in six games when they host the Broncos at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta dropped New Orleans 34-20 last week as a one-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover, giving the SU winner a 17-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 18 games, including 9-0 ATS this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (16 of 23, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid again, and RB Michael Turner (27 carries, 96 yards, 1 TD) had another good day.
Atlanta, which led 27-7 early in the fourth quarter, coasted despite getting outgained 521-361, but it had a 3-0 turnover advantage, including a 95-yard INT return for a score late in the game.
Denver rallied to beat Cleveland 34-30 as a three-point road underdog last Thursday, halting a three-game SU skid and a six-game ATS plunge. QB Jay Cutler (24 of 42, 447 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT), working with a decimated running back corps, threw all three of his TD passes during a 21-point fourth quarter as the Broncos rallied from a 23-13 deficit. The rally began with a 93-yard TD pass from Cutler to Eddie Royal.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. In 2004, Atlanta earned a 41-28 road win getting seven points.
The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year and carry additional positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall and 12-4 against the AFC. The Broncos, despite last week’s effort, are still mired in pointspread funks of 8-24-1 overall, 2-8-1 after a spread-cover, 3-12 against winning teams, 5-17-1 after a SU win and 4-12 on the road.
The over for Atlanta is on runs of 11-5 overall and 7-1 at home (3-1 this year), and the over for Denver is on streaks of 21-7-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 8-2-1 on the highway and 7-3-2 against winning teams. Also, the last four clashes between these two – including Super Bowl XXXIII – have cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Oakland (2-7, 3-6 ATS) at Miami (5-4 SU and ATS)
The Dolphins, aiming to keep pace in the AFC East logjam, step out of division play for a home game against the flailing Raiders.
Miami held off Seattle 21-19 for its third straight win, though the Dolphins failed to cash as a heavy nine-point home favorite, halting a two-game ATS uptick. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 36, 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was serviceable enough, and Ricky Williams (12 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, scoring on a 51-yard jaunt.
Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6 as a 10-point home pup for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, giving the SU winner an 8-1 ATS mark this season in Raiders games (6-0 ATS in the last six). Oakland has managed a meager 35 points over its last five games, including just two touchdowns, none in the last two games.
Miami is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, though the Raiders went to South Beach last year and rolled 35-17 as a 3½-point road pup. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Dolphins are on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 against AFC opponents, 7-2-1 in November and 5-2 after a non-cover. On the flip side, the Raiders are a lengthy 29-60-1 ATS in their last 90 games and are on further ATS nosedives of 17-39-1 after a non-cover, 20-45-1 after a SU loss, 8-17 as a non-division road ‘dog and 6-10 in the Eastern Time Zone.
The under for Miami is on runs of 6-0 in November and 4-1 at home, and the under is 4-1 in Oakland’s last five games overall. However, the total has gone high in six of the Raiders’ last eight roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Baltimore (6-3, 7-2 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (8-1, 7-2 ATS)
Two teams chasing their fifth consecutive victories tangle in East Rutherford, N.J., where the Giants host the Ravens in a non-conference contest.
New York outlasted Philadelphia 36-31 as a three-point road pup Sunday night, moving to 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four starts. QB Eli Manning (17 of 31, 191 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a fair effort, but the Giants’ ground game was the key, rolling up 219 yards, with RB Brandon Jacobs (22 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs) leading the way. New York nearly doubled the Eagles in time of possession (39:10-20:50).
Baltimore also won and cashed for the fourth straight game last Sunday, drilling Houston 41-13 as a 2½-point road underdog. The Ravens picked off Texans QB Sage Rosenfels four times, while committing no turnovers, and they got solid offensive efforts from rookie QB Joe Flacco (15 of 23, 185 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Willis McGahee (25 carries, 112 yards, 2 TDs). Baltimore finished with a 12-minute-plus edge in time of possession.
The SU winner is 19-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 21 games (8-1 ATS this season) and 18-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 20 games (8-1 ATS this season).
These squads haven’t met in the regular season since 2004, when Baltimore rolled to a 37-14 home win giving 10½ points.
The Giants are on several positive ATS runs, including 21-6 overall, 10-1 against winning teams, 10-2 after a SU win and 5-1 at home. Likewise, the Ravens are on ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 5-0 after a SU win and 12-6 against NFC foes.
The over for New York is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 8-3 at home, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-1 in November, and the over for Baltimore is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in roadies, 5-0 after a SU win, 13-3 on grass and 6-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (3-6, 2-7 ATS) at Indianapolis (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
The Colts are aiming for a season-high third straight win when they welcome the Texans to Lucas Oil Field for an AFC South matchup.
Indianapolis knocked off Pittsburgh 24-20 as a 3½-point road underdog, ending a three-game ATS skid and giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Colts’ last 12 starts. QB Peyton Manning (21 of 40, 240 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had one of his better games of the season and he was bolstered greatly by a Colts defense that provided a 3-0 turnover advantage by picking off Ben Roethlisberger three times.
Houston got pounded by Baltimore 41-13 as a 2½-points home chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Sage Rosenfels (23 of 38, 294 yards, 1 INT) subbed for injured starter Matt Schaub and pretty much gave the game away with four INTs, accounting for all the turnovers in this contest.
Indianapolis has won three straight meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), rallying from a 27-10 fourth-quarter deficit last month in Houston to pull out a stunning 31-27 road win as a three-point chalk. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
The Colts are on ATS dips of 1-6 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home, 3-10 in division contests and 2-5 on artificial turf. The Texans have been just as bad at the betting window, carrying negative ATS trends of 1-5 overall, 1-6 on the highway, 0-4 on turf, 2-7 against winning teams and 2-6 inside the division.
The over for Indianapolis is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in the AFC South and 7-3 after a SU win, and the over for Houston is on tears of 21-8-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 8-1 against the AFC and 18-5 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on sprees of 7-0 overall and 5-0 in Indy.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
Tennessee (9-0, 8-1 ATS) at Jacksonville (4-5, 3-6 ATS)
The Titans look to keep their perfect mark intact when they travel to Alltel Stadium for an AFC South clash with the Jaguars.
Tennessee remained the NFL’s only unbeaten team by topping Chicago 21-14 as a three-point favorite at Soldier Field, and the SU winner is now 16-2-1 ATS in the Titans’ last 19 games. Tennessee had almost no running game (20 net yards rushing) as the Bears stacked the box, but QB Kerry Collins (30 of 41, 289 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) took advantage with his biggest passing day of the season. The Titans defense allowed just 243 yards, and after allowing a first-quarter TD, Tennessee didn’t give up another score until five minutes remained in the game.
Jacksonville drilled Detroit 38-14 as a six-point road chalk, snapping a two-game SU and ATS hiccup and marking the first time this season that the Jags played a game that was decided by more than a touchdown. QB David Garrard (18 of 25, 238 yards, 2 TDs) was efficient, RBs Maurice Jones-Drew (3 TDs) and Fred Taylor combined for 150 rushing yards, and the Jags had no turnovers in running up a 384-256 edge in total yards.
Tennessee is on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge in this AFC South rivalry, including a 17-10 season-opening win as a three-point home pup back in September. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run.
Along with their 8-1 ATS run this season, the Titans are on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 4-0 on the road, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-0 against the AFC, 10-3 as a road chalk and 13-3 in divisional play. The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS at home this year and are on further ATS slides of 0-4 after a spread-cover, 0-4 after a SU win and 1-8 on grass, but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 starts against winning teams.
For Tennessee, the under is on streaks of 5-1 on the road and 14-5-1 after a SU win. On the flip side, the over for Jacksonville is on stretches of 20-8-3 overall, 5-1 versus the AFC South and 11-3-2 against winning teams, and the over has cashed in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Chicago (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) at Green Bay (4-5, 6-3 ATS)
After consecutive road losses, the Packers return home hoping to get back to .500 in this NFC North contest against the Bears at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay lost at Minnesota 28-27, giving up an Adrian Peterson TD in the waning moments, then missing a game-winning 52-yard field goal try at the buzzer. The Packers did cash as a 2½-point underdog to cover for the fourth straight week. They finished with just 184 total yards and held the ball for less than 24 minutes, but hung around by winning the turnover battle 3-0 and returning an INT and a punt for touchdowns. Green Bay also gave up four points on two second-quarter safeties.
Chicago lost to Tennessee 21-14 as a three-point home pup, ending a two-game SU surge and sending the Bears to their second straight ATS loss. QB Rex Grossman (20 of 37, 173 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), subbing for an injured Kyle Orton, was typically unsteady, as the Bears put up a first-quarter TD, then didn’t score again until Grossman dove in from the 1 with five minutes left in the game. Chicago finished with just 243 total yards.
The SU winner is 24-2-1 ATS in Green Bay’s last 27 games and 20-2-1 ATS in Chicago’s last 23 starts.
Chicago won and covered in both of last year’s meetings with Green Bay, including a 27-20 road win getting three points. The Bears are on ATS runs in this rivalry of 4-1-1 overall and 7-3-1 at Lambeau, and the road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight contests – all from the underdog role.
The Packers are on ATS streaks of 20-7-1 overall, 8-3-1 at home, 4-0 in division play, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 7-2-1 after a SU loss. The Bears are on ATS surges of 8-2 after a SU loss, 4-1 in the division and 7-2 after a pointspread setback, but should Grossman again be called on today, Chicago is on a 2-10 ATS slide with him as the starter.
The over for Green Bay is on several streaks, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-0 inside the division, 6-0-1 after a SU loss, 8-1 at home and 7-2 against winning teams. For Chicago, the under is on a 5-0 uptick on the road, but the over is 9-4-1 in its last 14 NFC North battles. Lastly, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these rivals at Lambeau Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Philadelphia (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-8, 3-6 ATS)
The Eagles, who had their three-game SU and ATS win streak snapped last week, are heavy favorites to get back in the win column against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.
Philadelphia fell to the Giants 36-31 as a three-point home chalk on Sunday night. QB Donovan McNabb (17 of 36, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a fair outing, but the Eagles got outgained 400-301, gave up 219 rushing yards and were nearly doubled in time of possession (39:10-20:50).
Cincinnati, coming off its bye, broke through for its first win of the season two weeks ago, stunning Jacksonville 21-19 as a nine-point home ‘dog. The Bengals held on despite getting outscored 16-0 in the fourth quarter. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (21 of 31, 162 yards, 1 INT) threw for a pair of TDs and also ran for 52 yards, and RB Cedric Benson (24 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD) had a solid day. Fitzpatrick once again will be under center in place of injured starter Carson Palmer.
These clubs last met late in the 2004 season, when Cincy posted a 38-10 rout as a 3½-point road favorite.
The Eagles are on a 9-1 ATS tear on the highway and sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 in November and 7-2 after a non-cover. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 November starts, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 coming off the bye, 1-8 after a spread-cover and 1-6 after a SU win.
The over is 4-1 in Philly’s last five road games and 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven games following a bye, but the under is 8-3-2 in the Eagles’ last 13 against losing teams, 5-1-1 in the Bengals’ last seven home games and 10-4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 15 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
New Orleans (4-5, 5-4 ATS) at Kansas City (1-8, 5-4 ATS)
The inconsistent Saints try to get back to .500 when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium for a non-conference game against the Chiefs.
New Orleans tumbled to Atlanta 34-20 as a one-point road ‘dog, giving the SU winner an 18-1 ATS mark in the Saints’ last 19 games (8-1 ATS this season). In addition, New Orleans has now alternated SU wins and losses over the last seven games and ATS wins and losses in its last six contests. QB Drew Brees (31 of 58, 422 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) played from behind all day and one of his picks was returned 95 yards for a late fourth-quarter score to seal the Saints’ fate.
Kansas City fell just short to San Diego 20-19, easily covering as an overwhelming 14½-point ‘dog. K.C. scored a TD in the last minute, then went for the win but failed on a 2-point conversion, negating a turnover-free day for the Chiefs and a solid outing from young QB Tyler Thigpen (27 of 41, 266 yards, 3 TDs).
These two teams have just one regular-season meeting this decade, a 27-20 New Orleans win in 2004 as a 3½-point home underdog.
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, but they are on ATS runs of 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 8-4 as a road chalk. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU loss, but they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine at Arrowhead (2-2 ATS this year).
The over for New Orleans is on runs of 11-2-1 overall, 5-1 on the highway and 7-1 against losing teams, and the over for Kansas City is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-2 at home and 5-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (0-9, 3-6 ATS) at Carolina (7-2, 5-2-2 ATS)
The Panthers pursue their fourth straight win when they take on the hapless Lions at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina was ragged at Oakland, but still came away with a 17-6 victory, even cashing as a 10-point road favorite to move the SU winner to 22-2-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 25 games. QB Jake Delhomme was an absolute disaster, going 7 of 27 for 72 yards with four INTs against just one TD, but DeAngelo Williams (19 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD) had a huge day, and the Panthers defense allowed just a pair of third-quarter field goals as Carolina finished with a 14-minute edge in time of possession.
Detroit is coming off an ugly 38-14 home loss to Jacksonville as a six-point pup, ending a 3-1 ATS roll, and the Lions are now 1-16 SU in their last 17 games. Newly acquired QB Daunte Culpepper (5 of 10, 104 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) got the start, but he didn’t help much as he split time with Drew Stanton, and the Lions finished with just 256 yards, while allowing 384.
Carolina is 2-0 SU and Detroit is 2-0 ATS in the last two meetings between these two, with the Panthers notching a 21-20 win in 2005, but the Lions getting the money as 2½-point home pups.
The Panthers sport ATS streaks of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 5-1-1 as a double-digit favorite. The Lions are on a 9-4 ATS run following a double-digit home loss, but the pointspread trends spiral downward from there, including 4-13 overall, 4-10 after a SU loss and 3-8 after a non-cover.
The under for Carolina is on stretches of 7-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 10-1 in November and 6-1 against losing teams. Conversely, the over for Detroit is on streaks of 11-3-1 overall, 7-2 on the highway and 6-0-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Minnesota (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Tampa Bay (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers, who had a bye last week following a two-game road trip, finally return to Raymond James Stadium when they take on the Vikings.
Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 30-27 in overtime two weeks ago, coming back from a 24-3 second-quarter deficit to notch the victory, but fell short as a healthy 9½-point road chalk for its third straight ATS setback. QB Jeff Garcia (31 of 43, 339 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) did well enough to help Tampa overcome a 4-1 turnover deficit, aided by Clifton Smith’s 97-yard kickoff return for a TD. Matt Bryant kicked a 34-yard field goal to win it.
Minnesota edged Green Bay 28-27 on a late TD run from RB Adrian Peterson as the Vikes won their second straight game, but they failed to cover laying 2½ points at home. The Vikings overcame three INTs from Gus Frerotte (15 of 28, 151 yards, 2 TDs), and Peterson (30 carries, 192 yards) made amends for a fourth-down fumble with his 29-yard game-winning scoring jaunt. The Minnesota defense allowed just 184 total yards.
Tampa Bay has won and cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry, most recently taking a 24-13 road win in 2005 catching 6½ points. The Bucs are on a 5-0 ATS run at home in this series, and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Buccaneers are on positive pointspread streaks of 9-4 at home, 4-1 against winning teams, 5-2 after the bye and 12-6-1 as a non-division home chalk. The Vikings are on a handful of ATS declines, including 3-9 overall, 1-4 on the road, 0-6 after a SU win, 2-6 against the NFC and 9-18-1 as a non-division road ‘dog.
The under for Tampa is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home, but the over for Minnesota is on streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-0 on the road. Also, the over has cashed in each of the last five series meetings at Raymond James.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
St. Louis (2-7, 3-6 ATS) at San Francisco (2-7, 3-6 ATS)
Two NFC West rivals going nowhere fast square off when the Rams travel to Monster Park to take on the 49ers.
St. Louis hits the highway for the second week in a row after getting drubbed by the New York Jets 47-3 as a 9½-point road ‘dog, the team’s third consecutive SU loss and second straight ATS setback. The Rams netted just 200 yards and lost the turnover battle 5-0, with QB Marc Bulger coughing up a fumble that was returned 50 yards for a TD.
San Francisco lost at Arizona 29-24 on Monday night but got the cash as a 9½ point ‘dog. The 49ers were actually in position to win, with first-and-goal at the 2-yard line in the final minute, but poor clock management and even worse play calling kept the 49ers from punching it in. Also hurting San Francisco was the fact it was on the wrong end of a 3-0 turnover deficit.
The SU winner is 11-1 ATS in St. Louis’ last 12 games (8-1 ATS this year) and 19-1 ATS in San Fran’s last 20 contests (8-1 ATS this year).
San Francisco is on a 6-1 ATS surge against the Rams and a 5-2 ATS roll in the last seven contests by the Bay.
The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against losing teams, but they are on ATS freefalls of 3-9 overall, 0-4 inside the division, 4-10 in November, 20-45-1 after an ATS loss and 19-42-1 after a SU loss. The 49ers have been just as bad lately, going 5-14 SU and ATS since their bye week last year, along with further ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-4 after a SU loss and 2-7 following a spread-cover.
The under is 16-7 in St. Louis’ last 23 road games and 8-2 in the Rams’ last 10 contests on grass, and in this rivalry, the under has cashed in four straight games and four of the last five in San Francisco. However, the over for the 49ers is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 in division play and 23-11-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS) at Seattle (2-7, 4-5 ATS)
The Cardinals, who are running away with the hapless NFC West, travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Arizona rallied to beat San Francisco 29-24 Monday night but failed to cover as a 9½-point chalk, ending a four-game ATS win streak. QB Kurt Warner (32 of 42, 328 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had another huge day as the Cards committed no turnovers, while forcing three. Arizona’s defense clinched the win with a goal-line stand in the final seconds.
Seattle lost to Miami 21-19 a week ago, though the Seahawks easily covered getting nine points on the road to move to 3-1 ATS in their last four games. Seattle showed a little life by rallying in the second half, but a game-tying 2-point attempt failed after the Seahawks had drawn within 21-19 late in the fourth quarter. Seattle has lost five of its last six games, but QB Matt Hasselbeck (back injury) is expected to return to the starting lineup today after missing the last five contests.
These teams split last year’s season series, with the home team winning and covering ine ach contest. The host is now on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, and the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the last five contests in Seattle.
Along with their current 4-1 ATS run, the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 against the NFC, 6-3-1 in road division games and 9-4 after a non-cover, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. The Seahawks are on a 1-6 ATS slide following a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 6-0 as an underdog against divisional foes, 7-1 overall against the NFC West and 8-2 after a SU loss.
The over is on a 7-1 tear in the last eight meetings in this rivalry. Furthermore, the over for Arizona is on runs of 37-18 overall, 9-3 inside the division and 39-16 on the road, and the over for Seattle is on streaks of 8-3-1 overall, 4-0 in division play, 7-2-1 against the NFC and 5-2-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
San Diego (4-5, 3-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
The Chargers, who reached the AFC Championship Game last year, try to climb back to .500 when they head to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers.
San Diego held off Kansas City 20-19, ending a two-game SU skid but falling far short of covering as a 14½-point favorite, the team’s third straight ATS setback. QB Philip Rivers (27 of 36, 316 yards, 2 TDs) had a relatively good outing, but he also threw two INTs to account for the game’s only turnovers. That allowed the Chiefs to stick around, despite the Chargers holding a 10-minute edge in time of possession.
Pittsburgh hosted Indianapolis last Sunday and got upended 24-20 as a 3½-point chalk, meaning the Steelers have now alternated ATS wins and losses over their last four games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (29 of 41, 280 yards) had no TD passes but threw three INTs, while the Colts – who had no turnovers -- converting two of those picks into 14 points. Pittsburgh blew a nine-minute advantage in time of possession.
Despite last week’s result against Kansas City, the SU winner is 25-2-1 ATS in San Diego’s last 28 games (7-1-1 ATS this season) and 5-0 ATS in Pittsburgh’s last five outings.
These teams have met four times this decade, with Pittsburgh going 3-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, San Diego earned a 23-13 home win laying 3½ points in 2006.
The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-division roadies, but they remain on pointspread tears of 5-1-1 against winning teams, 15-4-1 against the AFC and 9-3 after a SU win. The Steelers are on ATS skids of 2-6 as a home favorite, 1-4 in November and 2-5 on grass, though they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover.
San Diego is on a 4-1 “under” stretch, but the over for the Bolts is on tears of 14-5-2 on the highway and 13-5-1 in November, and the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 38-14-2 at home and 4-0 against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
Dallas (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Washington (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Cowboys, with QB Tony Romo back in the fold after sitting out three games with a broken pinkie, visit FedEx Field for a key NFC East clash with the Redskins.
Dallas took last week off after getting slammed 35-14 at the Giants as a 9½-point road underdog. Backup QBs Brad Johnson (5 of 11, 71 yards, 2 INTs) and Brooks Bollinger (9 of 16, 63 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) were both ineffective, giving even greater significance to Romo’s return this week. The Cowboys finished with a paltry 183 total yards against the Redskins, while allowing 319, and got only one score on offense – a meaningless Terrell Owens TD reception in the fourth quarter.
Washington also had its bye last week, following a 23-6 letdown as a one-point home favorite against the Steelers two weeks ago, which gave the SU winner a 15-1 ATS mark in the Redskins’ last 16 games (8-1 ATS this season). Washington took a 6-0 lead on two field goals in the first four minutes of the game, then failed to score the rest of the way. QB Jason Campbell (24 of 43, 206 yards, 0 TDs) threw a pair of INTs – his first since last year – and although the Redskins’ defense allowed just 224 total yards, the offense only produced 221.
Washington is on a 4-0 ATS streak in this rivalry, including a 26-24 road win in September as a heavy 10½-point underdog. However, the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes in Washington, and the underdog is on a 20-6 ATS run in this series.
The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November tilts, but otherwise they’re on numerous pointspread skids, including 1-5 overall, 2-6 in roadies, 0-7 in division play, 1-4 after a SU loss, 2-7 after an ATS setback and 2-6 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Redskins sport positive ATS runs of 5-1 inside the division, 10-2 coming off a bye and 6-2 against winning teams, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
The over for Dallas is on runs of 5-1 overall, 16-6-2 on the highway, 6-1 in November and 10-4-3 in division contests. But Washington carries under trends of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-1 against division foes and 7-3-1 after a bye week.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Denver (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS)
The beyond-surprising Falcons pursue their fifth win in six games when they host the Broncos at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta dropped New Orleans 34-20 last week as a one-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover, giving the SU winner a 17-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 18 games, including 9-0 ATS this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (16 of 23, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid again, and RB Michael Turner (27 carries, 96 yards, 1 TD) had another good day.
Atlanta, which led 27-7 early in the fourth quarter, coasted despite getting outgained 521-361, but it had a 3-0 turnover advantage, including a 95-yard INT return for a score late in the game.
Denver rallied to beat Cleveland 34-30 as a three-point road underdog last Thursday, halting a three-game SU skid and a six-game ATS plunge. QB Jay Cutler (24 of 42, 447 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT), working with a decimated running back corps, threw all three of his TD passes during a 21-point fourth quarter as the Broncos rallied from a 23-13 deficit. The rally began with a 93-yard TD pass from Cutler to Eddie Royal.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. In 2004, Atlanta earned a 41-28 road win getting seven points.
The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year and carry additional positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall and 12-4 against the AFC. The Broncos, despite last week’s effort, are still mired in pointspread funks of 8-24-1 overall, 2-8-1 after a spread-cover, 3-12 against winning teams, 5-17-1 after a SU win and 4-12 on the road.
The over for Atlanta is on runs of 11-5 overall and 7-1 at home (3-1 this year), and the over for Denver is on streaks of 21-7-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 8-2-1 on the highway and 7-3-2 against winning teams. Also, the last four clashes between these two – including Super Bowl XXXIII – have cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Oakland (2-7, 3-6 ATS) at Miami (5-4 SU and ATS)
The Dolphins, aiming to keep pace in the AFC East logjam, step out of division play for a home game against the flailing Raiders.
Miami held off Seattle 21-19 for its third straight win, though the Dolphins failed to cash as a heavy nine-point home favorite, halting a two-game ATS uptick. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 36, 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was serviceable enough, and Ricky Williams (12 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, scoring on a 51-yard jaunt.
Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6 as a 10-point home pup for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, giving the SU winner an 8-1 ATS mark this season in Raiders games (6-0 ATS in the last six). Oakland has managed a meager 35 points over its last five games, including just two touchdowns, none in the last two games.
Miami is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, though the Raiders went to South Beach last year and rolled 35-17 as a 3½-point road pup. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Dolphins are on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 against AFC opponents, 7-2-1 in November and 5-2 after a non-cover. On the flip side, the Raiders are a lengthy 29-60-1 ATS in their last 90 games and are on further ATS nosedives of 17-39-1 after a non-cover, 20-45-1 after a SU loss, 8-17 as a non-division road ‘dog and 6-10 in the Eastern Time Zone.
The under for Miami is on runs of 6-0 in November and 4-1 at home, and the under is 4-1 in Oakland’s last five games overall. However, the total has gone high in six of the Raiders’ last eight roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Baltimore (6-3, 7-2 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (8-1, 7-2 ATS)
Two teams chasing their fifth consecutive victories tangle in East Rutherford, N.J., where the Giants host the Ravens in a non-conference contest.
New York outlasted Philadelphia 36-31 as a three-point road pup Sunday night, moving to 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four starts. QB Eli Manning (17 of 31, 191 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a fair effort, but the Giants’ ground game was the key, rolling up 219 yards, with RB Brandon Jacobs (22 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs) leading the way. New York nearly doubled the Eagles in time of possession (39:10-20:50).
Baltimore also won and cashed for the fourth straight game last Sunday, drilling Houston 41-13 as a 2½-point road underdog. The Ravens picked off Texans QB Sage Rosenfels four times, while committing no turnovers, and they got solid offensive efforts from rookie QB Joe Flacco (15 of 23, 185 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Willis McGahee (25 carries, 112 yards, 2 TDs). Baltimore finished with a 12-minute-plus edge in time of possession.
The SU winner is 19-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 21 games (8-1 ATS this season) and 18-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 20 games (8-1 ATS this season).
These squads haven’t met in the regular season since 2004, when Baltimore rolled to a 37-14 home win giving 10½ points.
The Giants are on several positive ATS runs, including 21-6 overall, 10-1 against winning teams, 10-2 after a SU win and 5-1 at home. Likewise, the Ravens are on ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 5-0 after a SU win and 12-6 against NFC foes.
The over for New York is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 8-3 at home, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-1 in November, and the over for Baltimore is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in roadies, 5-0 after a SU win, 13-3 on grass and 6-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (3-6, 2-7 ATS) at Indianapolis (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
The Colts are aiming for a season-high third straight win when they welcome the Texans to Lucas Oil Field for an AFC South matchup.
Indianapolis knocked off Pittsburgh 24-20 as a 3½-point road underdog, ending a three-game ATS skid and giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Colts’ last 12 starts. QB Peyton Manning (21 of 40, 240 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had one of his better games of the season and he was bolstered greatly by a Colts defense that provided a 3-0 turnover advantage by picking off Ben Roethlisberger three times.
Houston got pounded by Baltimore 41-13 as a 2½-points home chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Sage Rosenfels (23 of 38, 294 yards, 1 INT) subbed for injured starter Matt Schaub and pretty much gave the game away with four INTs, accounting for all the turnovers in this contest.
Indianapolis has won three straight meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), rallying from a 27-10 fourth-quarter deficit last month in Houston to pull out a stunning 31-27 road win as a three-point chalk. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
The Colts are on ATS dips of 1-6 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home, 3-10 in division contests and 2-5 on artificial turf. The Texans have been just as bad at the betting window, carrying negative ATS trends of 1-5 overall, 1-6 on the highway, 0-4 on turf, 2-7 against winning teams and 2-6 inside the division.
The over for Indianapolis is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in the AFC South and 7-3 after a SU win, and the over for Houston is on tears of 21-8-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 8-1 against the AFC and 18-5 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on sprees of 7-0 overall and 5-0 in Indy.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
Tennessee (9-0, 8-1 ATS) at Jacksonville (4-5, 3-6 ATS)
The Titans look to keep their perfect mark intact when they travel to Alltel Stadium for an AFC South clash with the Jaguars.
Tennessee remained the NFL’s only unbeaten team by topping Chicago 21-14 as a three-point favorite at Soldier Field, and the SU winner is now 16-2-1 ATS in the Titans’ last 19 games. Tennessee had almost no running game (20 net yards rushing) as the Bears stacked the box, but QB Kerry Collins (30 of 41, 289 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) took advantage with his biggest passing day of the season. The Titans defense allowed just 243 yards, and after allowing a first-quarter TD, Tennessee didn’t give up another score until five minutes remained in the game.
Jacksonville drilled Detroit 38-14 as a six-point road chalk, snapping a two-game SU and ATS hiccup and marking the first time this season that the Jags played a game that was decided by more than a touchdown. QB David Garrard (18 of 25, 238 yards, 2 TDs) was efficient, RBs Maurice Jones-Drew (3 TDs) and Fred Taylor combined for 150 rushing yards, and the Jags had no turnovers in running up a 384-256 edge in total yards.
Tennessee is on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge in this AFC South rivalry, including a 17-10 season-opening win as a three-point home pup back in September. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run.
Along with their 8-1 ATS run this season, the Titans are on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 4-0 on the road, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-0 against the AFC, 10-3 as a road chalk and 13-3 in divisional play. The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS at home this year and are on further ATS slides of 0-4 after a spread-cover, 0-4 after a SU win and 1-8 on grass, but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 starts against winning teams.
For Tennessee, the under is on streaks of 5-1 on the road and 14-5-1 after a SU win. On the flip side, the over for Jacksonville is on stretches of 20-8-3 overall, 5-1 versus the AFC South and 11-3-2 against winning teams, and the over has cashed in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Chicago (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) at Green Bay (4-5, 6-3 ATS)
After consecutive road losses, the Packers return home hoping to get back to .500 in this NFC North contest against the Bears at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay lost at Minnesota 28-27, giving up an Adrian Peterson TD in the waning moments, then missing a game-winning 52-yard field goal try at the buzzer. The Packers did cash as a 2½-point underdog to cover for the fourth straight week. They finished with just 184 total yards and held the ball for less than 24 minutes, but hung around by winning the turnover battle 3-0 and returning an INT and a punt for touchdowns. Green Bay also gave up four points on two second-quarter safeties.
Chicago lost to Tennessee 21-14 as a three-point home pup, ending a two-game SU surge and sending the Bears to their second straight ATS loss. QB Rex Grossman (20 of 37, 173 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), subbing for an injured Kyle Orton, was typically unsteady, as the Bears put up a first-quarter TD, then didn’t score again until Grossman dove in from the 1 with five minutes left in the game. Chicago finished with just 243 total yards.
The SU winner is 24-2-1 ATS in Green Bay’s last 27 games and 20-2-1 ATS in Chicago’s last 23 starts.
Chicago won and covered in both of last year’s meetings with Green Bay, including a 27-20 road win getting three points. The Bears are on ATS runs in this rivalry of 4-1-1 overall and 7-3-1 at Lambeau, and the road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight contests – all from the underdog role.
The Packers are on ATS streaks of 20-7-1 overall, 8-3-1 at home, 4-0 in division play, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 7-2-1 after a SU loss. The Bears are on ATS surges of 8-2 after a SU loss, 4-1 in the division and 7-2 after a pointspread setback, but should Grossman again be called on today, Chicago is on a 2-10 ATS slide with him as the starter.
The over for Green Bay is on several streaks, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-0 inside the division, 6-0-1 after a SU loss, 8-1 at home and 7-2 against winning teams. For Chicago, the under is on a 5-0 uptick on the road, but the over is 9-4-1 in its last 14 NFC North battles. Lastly, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these rivals at Lambeau Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Philadelphia (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-8, 3-6 ATS)
The Eagles, who had their three-game SU and ATS win streak snapped last week, are heavy favorites to get back in the win column against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.
Philadelphia fell to the Giants 36-31 as a three-point home chalk on Sunday night. QB Donovan McNabb (17 of 36, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a fair outing, but the Eagles got outgained 400-301, gave up 219 rushing yards and were nearly doubled in time of possession (39:10-20:50).
Cincinnati, coming off its bye, broke through for its first win of the season two weeks ago, stunning Jacksonville 21-19 as a nine-point home ‘dog. The Bengals held on despite getting outscored 16-0 in the fourth quarter. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (21 of 31, 162 yards, 1 INT) threw for a pair of TDs and also ran for 52 yards, and RB Cedric Benson (24 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD) had a solid day. Fitzpatrick once again will be under center in place of injured starter Carson Palmer.
These clubs last met late in the 2004 season, when Cincy posted a 38-10 rout as a 3½-point road favorite.
The Eagles are on a 9-1 ATS tear on the highway and sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 in November and 7-2 after a non-cover. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 November starts, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 coming off the bye, 1-8 after a spread-cover and 1-6 after a SU win.
The over is 4-1 in Philly’s last five road games and 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven games following a bye, but the under is 8-3-2 in the Eagles’ last 13 against losing teams, 5-1-1 in the Bengals’ last seven home games and 10-4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 15 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
New Orleans (4-5, 5-4 ATS) at Kansas City (1-8, 5-4 ATS)
The inconsistent Saints try to get back to .500 when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium for a non-conference game against the Chiefs.
New Orleans tumbled to Atlanta 34-20 as a one-point road ‘dog, giving the SU winner an 18-1 ATS mark in the Saints’ last 19 games (8-1 ATS this season). In addition, New Orleans has now alternated SU wins and losses over the last seven games and ATS wins and losses in its last six contests. QB Drew Brees (31 of 58, 422 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) played from behind all day and one of his picks was returned 95 yards for a late fourth-quarter score to seal the Saints’ fate.
Kansas City fell just short to San Diego 20-19, easily covering as an overwhelming 14½-point ‘dog. K.C. scored a TD in the last minute, then went for the win but failed on a 2-point conversion, negating a turnover-free day for the Chiefs and a solid outing from young QB Tyler Thigpen (27 of 41, 266 yards, 3 TDs).
These two teams have just one regular-season meeting this decade, a 27-20 New Orleans win in 2004 as a 3½-point home underdog.
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, but they are on ATS runs of 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 8-4 as a road chalk. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU loss, but they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine at Arrowhead (2-2 ATS this year).
The over for New Orleans is on runs of 11-2-1 overall, 5-1 on the highway and 7-1 against losing teams, and the over for Kansas City is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-2 at home and 5-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (0-9, 3-6 ATS) at Carolina (7-2, 5-2-2 ATS)
The Panthers pursue their fourth straight win when they take on the hapless Lions at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina was ragged at Oakland, but still came away with a 17-6 victory, even cashing as a 10-point road favorite to move the SU winner to 22-2-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 25 games. QB Jake Delhomme was an absolute disaster, going 7 of 27 for 72 yards with four INTs against just one TD, but DeAngelo Williams (19 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD) had a huge day, and the Panthers defense allowed just a pair of third-quarter field goals as Carolina finished with a 14-minute edge in time of possession.
Detroit is coming off an ugly 38-14 home loss to Jacksonville as a six-point pup, ending a 3-1 ATS roll, and the Lions are now 1-16 SU in their last 17 games. Newly acquired QB Daunte Culpepper (5 of 10, 104 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) got the start, but he didn’t help much as he split time with Drew Stanton, and the Lions finished with just 256 yards, while allowing 384.
Carolina is 2-0 SU and Detroit is 2-0 ATS in the last two meetings between these two, with the Panthers notching a 21-20 win in 2005, but the Lions getting the money as 2½-point home pups.
The Panthers sport ATS streaks of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 5-1-1 as a double-digit favorite. The Lions are on a 9-4 ATS run following a double-digit home loss, but the pointspread trends spiral downward from there, including 4-13 overall, 4-10 after a SU loss and 3-8 after a non-cover.
The under for Carolina is on stretches of 7-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 10-1 in November and 6-1 against losing teams. Conversely, the over for Detroit is on streaks of 11-3-1 overall, 7-2 on the highway and 6-0-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Minnesota (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Tampa Bay (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers, who had a bye last week following a two-game road trip, finally return to Raymond James Stadium when they take on the Vikings.
Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 30-27 in overtime two weeks ago, coming back from a 24-3 second-quarter deficit to notch the victory, but fell short as a healthy 9½-point road chalk for its third straight ATS setback. QB Jeff Garcia (31 of 43, 339 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) did well enough to help Tampa overcome a 4-1 turnover deficit, aided by Clifton Smith’s 97-yard kickoff return for a TD. Matt Bryant kicked a 34-yard field goal to win it.
Minnesota edged Green Bay 28-27 on a late TD run from RB Adrian Peterson as the Vikes won their second straight game, but they failed to cover laying 2½ points at home. The Vikings overcame three INTs from Gus Frerotte (15 of 28, 151 yards, 2 TDs), and Peterson (30 carries, 192 yards) made amends for a fourth-down fumble with his 29-yard game-winning scoring jaunt. The Minnesota defense allowed just 184 total yards.
Tampa Bay has won and cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry, most recently taking a 24-13 road win in 2005 catching 6½ points. The Bucs are on a 5-0 ATS run at home in this series, and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Buccaneers are on positive pointspread streaks of 9-4 at home, 4-1 against winning teams, 5-2 after the bye and 12-6-1 as a non-division home chalk. The Vikings are on a handful of ATS declines, including 3-9 overall, 1-4 on the road, 0-6 after a SU win, 2-6 against the NFC and 9-18-1 as a non-division road ‘dog.
The under for Tampa is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home, but the over for Minnesota is on streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-0 on the road. Also, the over has cashed in each of the last five series meetings at Raymond James.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
St. Louis (2-7, 3-6 ATS) at San Francisco (2-7, 3-6 ATS)
Two NFC West rivals going nowhere fast square off when the Rams travel to Monster Park to take on the 49ers.
St. Louis hits the highway for the second week in a row after getting drubbed by the New York Jets 47-3 as a 9½-point road ‘dog, the team’s third consecutive SU loss and second straight ATS setback. The Rams netted just 200 yards and lost the turnover battle 5-0, with QB Marc Bulger coughing up a fumble that was returned 50 yards for a TD.
San Francisco lost at Arizona 29-24 on Monday night but got the cash as a 9½ point ‘dog. The 49ers were actually in position to win, with first-and-goal at the 2-yard line in the final minute, but poor clock management and even worse play calling kept the 49ers from punching it in. Also hurting San Francisco was the fact it was on the wrong end of a 3-0 turnover deficit.
The SU winner is 11-1 ATS in St. Louis’ last 12 games (8-1 ATS this year) and 19-1 ATS in San Fran’s last 20 contests (8-1 ATS this year).
San Francisco is on a 6-1 ATS surge against the Rams and a 5-2 ATS roll in the last seven contests by the Bay.
The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against losing teams, but they are on ATS freefalls of 3-9 overall, 0-4 inside the division, 4-10 in November, 20-45-1 after an ATS loss and 19-42-1 after a SU loss. The 49ers have been just as bad lately, going 5-14 SU and ATS since their bye week last year, along with further ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-4 after a SU loss and 2-7 following a spread-cover.
The under is 16-7 in St. Louis’ last 23 road games and 8-2 in the Rams’ last 10 contests on grass, and in this rivalry, the under has cashed in four straight games and four of the last five in San Francisco. However, the over for the 49ers is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 in division play and 23-11-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS) at Seattle (2-7, 4-5 ATS)
The Cardinals, who are running away with the hapless NFC West, travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Arizona rallied to beat San Francisco 29-24 Monday night but failed to cover as a 9½-point chalk, ending a four-game ATS win streak. QB Kurt Warner (32 of 42, 328 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had another huge day as the Cards committed no turnovers, while forcing three. Arizona’s defense clinched the win with a goal-line stand in the final seconds.
Seattle lost to Miami 21-19 a week ago, though the Seahawks easily covered getting nine points on the road to move to 3-1 ATS in their last four games. Seattle showed a little life by rallying in the second half, but a game-tying 2-point attempt failed after the Seahawks had drawn within 21-19 late in the fourth quarter. Seattle has lost five of its last six games, but QB Matt Hasselbeck (back injury) is expected to return to the starting lineup today after missing the last five contests.
These teams split last year’s season series, with the home team winning and covering ine ach contest. The host is now on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, and the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the last five contests in Seattle.
Along with their current 4-1 ATS run, the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 against the NFC, 6-3-1 in road division games and 9-4 after a non-cover, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. The Seahawks are on a 1-6 ATS slide following a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 6-0 as an underdog against divisional foes, 7-1 overall against the NFC West and 8-2 after a SU loss.
The over is on a 7-1 tear in the last eight meetings in this rivalry. Furthermore, the over for Arizona is on runs of 37-18 overall, 9-3 inside the division and 39-16 on the road, and the over for Seattle is on streaks of 8-3-1 overall, 4-0 in division play, 7-2-1 against the NFC and 5-2-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
San Diego (4-5, 3-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
The Chargers, who reached the AFC Championship Game last year, try to climb back to .500 when they head to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers.
San Diego held off Kansas City 20-19, ending a two-game SU skid but falling far short of covering as a 14½-point favorite, the team’s third straight ATS setback. QB Philip Rivers (27 of 36, 316 yards, 2 TDs) had a relatively good outing, but he also threw two INTs to account for the game’s only turnovers. That allowed the Chiefs to stick around, despite the Chargers holding a 10-minute edge in time of possession.
Pittsburgh hosted Indianapolis last Sunday and got upended 24-20 as a 3½-point chalk, meaning the Steelers have now alternated ATS wins and losses over their last four games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (29 of 41, 280 yards) had no TD passes but threw three INTs, while the Colts – who had no turnovers -- converting two of those picks into 14 points. Pittsburgh blew a nine-minute advantage in time of possession.
Despite last week’s result against Kansas City, the SU winner is 25-2-1 ATS in San Diego’s last 28 games (7-1-1 ATS this season) and 5-0 ATS in Pittsburgh’s last five outings.
These teams have met four times this decade, with Pittsburgh going 3-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, San Diego earned a 23-13 home win laying 3½ points in 2006.
The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-division roadies, but they remain on pointspread tears of 5-1-1 against winning teams, 15-4-1 against the AFC and 9-3 after a SU win. The Steelers are on ATS skids of 2-6 as a home favorite, 1-4 in November and 2-5 on grass, though they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover.
San Diego is on a 4-1 “under” stretch, but the over for the Bolts is on tears of 14-5-2 on the highway and 13-5-1 in November, and the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 38-14-2 at home and 4-0 against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
Dallas (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Washington (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Cowboys, with QB Tony Romo back in the fold after sitting out three games with a broken pinkie, visit FedEx Field for a key NFC East clash with the Redskins.
Dallas took last week off after getting slammed 35-14 at the Giants as a 9½-point road underdog. Backup QBs Brad Johnson (5 of 11, 71 yards, 2 INTs) and Brooks Bollinger (9 of 16, 63 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) were both ineffective, giving even greater significance to Romo’s return this week. The Cowboys finished with a paltry 183 total yards against the Redskins, while allowing 319, and got only one score on offense – a meaningless Terrell Owens TD reception in the fourth quarter.
Washington also had its bye last week, following a 23-6 letdown as a one-point home favorite against the Steelers two weeks ago, which gave the SU winner a 15-1 ATS mark in the Redskins’ last 16 games (8-1 ATS this season). Washington took a 6-0 lead on two field goals in the first four minutes of the game, then failed to score the rest of the way. QB Jason Campbell (24 of 43, 206 yards, 0 TDs) threw a pair of INTs – his first since last year – and although the Redskins’ defense allowed just 224 total yards, the offense only produced 221.
Washington is on a 4-0 ATS streak in this rivalry, including a 26-24 road win in September as a heavy 10½-point underdog. However, the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes in Washington, and the underdog is on a 20-6 ATS run in this series.
The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November tilts, but otherwise they’re on numerous pointspread skids, including 1-5 overall, 2-6 in roadies, 0-7 in division play, 1-4 after a SU loss, 2-7 after an ATS setback and 2-6 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Redskins sport positive ATS runs of 5-1 inside the division, 10-2 coming off a bye and 6-2 against winning teams, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
The over for Dallas is on runs of 5-1 overall, 16-6-2 on the highway, 6-1 in November and 10-4-3 in division contests. But Washington carries under trends of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-1 against division foes and 7-3-1 after a bye week.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
