Jimmy Boyd
5* NCAAF Sunday Night GOTY (ESPN) on Tulsa -23
Tulsa had only 2 conference losses a season ago. One of those losses was at UTEP by one point. Tulsa has its revenge last week with a 77-35 win. The other loss was a blowout defeat at UCF and the Hurricane will avenge that loss Sunday night. UCF loss to the UTEP team that Tulsa crushed by a score of 13-58 earlier this season. Plays against road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 23-3 ATS since 1992. Plays on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (TULSA) - in conference games, after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival are 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Tulsa.
5* NFL Underdog of the Year on Giants +3
I think New York's ferocious pass rush will be the difference in this one, just as it was in the Super Bowl. Philly's heavy duty pass rush really took a toll on the Steelers in their only loss of the season. The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, and 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are also 10-2 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS after scoring 35 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Giants.
4* Major AFC East Game of the Month on Bills -1
Miami is definitely improved, but it has lost two in a row and is only 2-4 on the season. Buffalo proved that it was for real once again last week with a 9-point win over San Diego, the third team its beaten that was in the postseason a year ago. The Bills are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS versus Miami the past 4 seasons. Buffalo is also on a run of 8-0 ATS in its L8 games against teams with a losing record. Miami has not been kind to backers at home. Miami has struggled to a 3-10-1 ATS mark in its L14 home games and is 11-29-1 ATS in its last 41 home games, not to mention 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. the AFC East. Take the Bills.
4* Major NFL Fade of the Week on Cardinals +4.5
Off a big blowout win over division rival New Orleans, I expect the Panthers to come out flat this week against a high-powered Arizona team. Arizona avoids any letdowns after a big win over Dallas because a bye week has allowed this team more time to get re-focused and prepared. Arizona is a strong 27-11 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. Arizona is also 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. We'll fade the Panthers in this letdown spot.
3* SMASH on Ravens -6.5
After a thrilling OT win last week to snap a 3-game losing streak the Raiders will fall flat on their faces this week as they venture back out on the road. Oakland continued to struggle to score points and that does not bode well against a strong Ravens defense. The Ravens are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games with Oakland. Plays against any team (OAKLAND) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-5 ATS since 1983. Lay the points.
3* SMASH on Patriots -7
Monday night's big win over Denver did a ton for the confidence of QB Matt Cassel and also for the confidence that the Patriots have in him. I think that performance gains them more trust in Cassel and allows them to open up the offense a little more. The Rams are primed for a letdown this week coming off a big home win over Dallas. Against the AFC, St. Louis is 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games. The Patriots are 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS vs. the NFC West under Bill Belichick. St.Louis is 6-16 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 and 3-11 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons while New England is 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons and 11-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Pats.
Monday 10/27
5* AFC South GOTY on Colts +4
I like the Colts to spoil Tennessee brilliant start this week. Indy is coming off a terrible performance at Green Bay last week and it will be in full blown bounce back mode against its division rivals. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Plays on road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Colts.
<!-- / message -->
5* NCAAF Sunday Night GOTY (ESPN) on Tulsa -23
Tulsa had only 2 conference losses a season ago. One of those losses was at UTEP by one point. Tulsa has its revenge last week with a 77-35 win. The other loss was a blowout defeat at UCF and the Hurricane will avenge that loss Sunday night. UCF loss to the UTEP team that Tulsa crushed by a score of 13-58 earlier this season. Plays against road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 23-3 ATS since 1992. Plays on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (TULSA) - in conference games, after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival are 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Tulsa.
5* NFL Underdog of the Year on Giants +3
I think New York's ferocious pass rush will be the difference in this one, just as it was in the Super Bowl. Philly's heavy duty pass rush really took a toll on the Steelers in their only loss of the season. The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, and 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are also 10-2 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS after scoring 35 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Giants.
4* Major AFC East Game of the Month on Bills -1
Miami is definitely improved, but it has lost two in a row and is only 2-4 on the season. Buffalo proved that it was for real once again last week with a 9-point win over San Diego, the third team its beaten that was in the postseason a year ago. The Bills are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS versus Miami the past 4 seasons. Buffalo is also on a run of 8-0 ATS in its L8 games against teams with a losing record. Miami has not been kind to backers at home. Miami has struggled to a 3-10-1 ATS mark in its L14 home games and is 11-29-1 ATS in its last 41 home games, not to mention 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. the AFC East. Take the Bills.
4* Major NFL Fade of the Week on Cardinals +4.5
Off a big blowout win over division rival New Orleans, I expect the Panthers to come out flat this week against a high-powered Arizona team. Arizona avoids any letdowns after a big win over Dallas because a bye week has allowed this team more time to get re-focused and prepared. Arizona is a strong 27-11 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. Arizona is also 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. We'll fade the Panthers in this letdown spot.
3* SMASH on Ravens -6.5
After a thrilling OT win last week to snap a 3-game losing streak the Raiders will fall flat on their faces this week as they venture back out on the road. Oakland continued to struggle to score points and that does not bode well against a strong Ravens defense. The Ravens are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games with Oakland. Plays against any team (OAKLAND) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-5 ATS since 1983. Lay the points.
3* SMASH on Patriots -7
Monday night's big win over Denver did a ton for the confidence of QB Matt Cassel and also for the confidence that the Patriots have in him. I think that performance gains them more trust in Cassel and allows them to open up the offense a little more. The Rams are primed for a letdown this week coming off a big home win over Dallas. Against the AFC, St. Louis is 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games. The Patriots are 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS vs. the NFC West under Bill Belichick. St.Louis is 6-16 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 and 3-11 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons while New England is 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons and 11-1 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Pats.
Monday 10/27
5* AFC South GOTY on Colts +4
I like the Colts to spoil Tennessee brilliant start this week. Indy is coming off a terrible performance at Green Bay last week and it will be in full blown bounce back mode against its division rivals. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Plays on road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Colts.
<!-- / message -->