Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report- Sunday
NFL: 25-12
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday October 12 (Sunday Night NBC TV)
Game: New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:44 EST October 10
Grade / Prediction: 6* San Diego Chargers -5
Analysis:
Qualcomm Stadium will be the site of Sunday’s clash between the two teams that played for the AFC title last year. These are not quite the same two teams and Sunday night's prime-time matchup has lost a bit of its luster with the Chargers struggling and the Patriots trying to find their identity without QB Tom Brady.
This series has become a huge rivalry game between the Chargers and the New England Patriots. San Diego has been eliminated from Super Bowl contention by the Patriots in each of the past two seasons and this gives good cause for some revenge here tonight.
The Chargers are 2-3, two games out of first place in the AFC-West behind Denver, who have already defeated them this season. The Patriots are 3-1, but their aura of invincibility took a hit with the Super Bowl loss to the Giants last year and when Brady went down with a season-ending injury in the season-opener. Both teams have already lost to Miami who went 1-15 last season.
New England put 30 points on the 49ers last week but that score is a bit misleading. They were certainly helped by the 49ers QB JT O’Sullivan who threw three INT’s on the day. The Patriots averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game against a Niners’ defense that averages allowing 5.1 yards per play at home to an average team.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index (OEI) shows the Chargers even with LT (3.7 yards per rush) starting slow are still ranked 2nd in the league in this category. The Chargers average only 10.99 yards per point while the Patriots are ranked 19th in the league and average 15.08 yards per point. These numbers show how efficient the Chargers are on the offensive side of the ball. This index measures not only offensive numbers but the proficiency of defense, special teams, red zone defense and turnover differential.
If you were to listen to the “so-called” experts you would think that Patriots QB Matt Cassel has performed rather well. We don’t think so and here’s one of the key reasons why we know he is not doing well replacing Tom Brady. Last season New England led the league in average Passing Yards per Attempt. Now our PYPA is much more advanced than say the numbers you will find at ESPN.com or Yahoo Sports. Our numbers include sacks and this is a major component to this equation that is if you want to find the spread winner in this or any football game.
Like we stated New England led the league last season but this season they are ranked 22nd averaging only 5.51 yards per pass attempt. Tonight’s opponent the San Diego Chargers rank 3rd in the league this season averaging 7.76 yards per pass attempt. This is a huge difference and usually leads to a successful investment opportunity.
New England’s defense has lost a step and are not the unit that went 18-0 last season. Their linebackers are certainly slow and their defense is weak against the run which should cost them tonight against a Chargers team that has LT and Darren Sproles to rush the football.
The Chargers defense will get a lift with the return of linebacker Stephen Cooper from suspension. This will help with their rush defense and that is an area of weakness for this Patriots team. The Patriots are using a running back by committee with Lawrence Maroney injured and have found the going to be extremely tough.
Our Defensive Efficiency Index (DEI) shows the Patriots ranked 11th in the league forcing opponents to average 15.19 yards per point. The Chargers are ranked 15th in the league and they are forcing opponents to average 14.69 yards per point. A slight edge for the Patriots but the competition has something to do with this difference as the Chargers have faced a very tough Carolina team and a high scoring Denver squad.
Our Situational Report for this contest shows the Chargers to be in a positive situation in tonight’s game. Play ON teams with a 1st Down Pass Rating For >1 and an ATS Win% <=.600, 82-27 ATS since 1994.
Technical Support for our selection can be found in these powerful angles. SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. passing defenses that are allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 11-2 ATS vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 15-4 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Data base research has uncovered a solid NFL Power System that says to Play On NFL Favorites after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record, 35-11 ATS since 1983.
This contest is very important to this Chargers squad not only because the Patriots have sent them home the last two seasons during the AFC Championship games but for this season. They are almost in a must win situation and each member of the Chargers team realizes it and are aware of what is needed tonight.
We look for the Chargers to come out and play very physical and not let up as they get the win and cover.
GRADED PREDICTION: 6* San Diego Chargers -5
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday October 12
Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Line Origin: BetCris @ 1:20 EST October 10
Grade / Prediction: 5* Seattle Seahawks +1
Analysis:
After meeting in the playoffs last season, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks were both expected to contend for division crowns this season. However, both teams have been unable to stop anyone on defense and both have injuries to the starting QB’s.
Green Bay (2-3) and Seattle (1-3) won the NFC North and West, respectively, last season, and matched up in a divisional playoff game at Lambeau Field on Jan. 12. The Packers fell behind by two touchdowns four minutes into the game, but Brett Favre rallied them to a 42-20 victory which was his final win as a Packer.
Aaron Rodgers got off to a solid start as Favre's replacement, as the Packers opened 2008 with consecutive victories. Very little has gone right since, however, as Green Bay has dropped its last three games.
Rodgers, who sprained his shoulder in Week 4's 30-21 loss at Tampa Bay, pleaded with Coach Mike McCarthy to let him play last Sunday against Atlanta. He got his wish and finished 25-for-37 for 313 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, although the gutty effort came up short as the Packers lost 27-24.
Even though Rodgers missed most of practice this week it appears he will get the start in Sunday’s match up against the Seahawks.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay's defense continues to struggle after allowing 370 yards of total offense last week. The Packers “D” is ranked 23rd in the league in scoring defense allowing 25.6 points per game and 26th in total defense with 374 yards per game.
The Seahawks returned all 11 defensive starters including four Pro Bowlers from last season's unit, but they have struggled this season as well. Although they are much better at stopping the run than the Packers are and that could very well be the difference today.
With both teams having injured QB’s they will try to establish the running game to take the pressure off and the Seahawks have the advantage in this department by more than 30 yards rushing per game on both sides of the ball.
Defensively Seattle only allows 129 yards rushing per game whereas the Packers are giving up 161 yards rushing per game. If you take out the Detroit game the Packers are allowing almost 200 yards rushing per game (190 yds) with a 5.2 yards per carry average. On the offensive side of the ball the Seahawks rush for 143 yards per game while the Packers don’t even average 100 yards rushing per contest with a 95.6 yard average.
It appears that Charlie Frye will get the start for Seattle on Sunday. Hasslebecks leg is not responding to treatment and he has not practiced a single day this week. The Seahawks were hoping to have Branch and Engram for this contest but it looks as though Engram will be the only wide-out starting of the two as Branch is still bothered by a sore heel he suffered in his last game.
On the technical front we know the Seahawks have won and covered seven of their last eight at home. The Hawks are 19-9-1 ATS at home since 2005. The Seahawks are 12-2 ATS versus any team with more wins after a straight up loss. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS at home the week after on the road as a TD+ dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS the week after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
Data base research has uncovered a few active Power Systems for today’s contest. NFL Teams are 13-5-1 ATS as a home favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The League is 49-20-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Our Technical Situational Report shows the Packers in a negative situation that says Play AGAINST team with a below average Rushing Game (RGF+RGA) and an above average Passing Game (PGF+PGA), 117-51 ATS since 1994. The Packers qualify in another negative situation that says to Play AGAINST teams with a Pass Defense Rating Advantage >1 and an above average Pass Offense Rating last season and their current opponent has an above average Rush Offense Rating, 141-53 ATS since 1994. The Seahawks qualify in a positive situation that says to Play ON teams with a Rush Offense Rating at least 0.5 points higher than last season and at least 0.5 points higher than their current opponent, 139-55 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Seattle Seahawks +1
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday October 12
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:52 EST October 10
Grade / Prediction: 4* Arizona Cardinals +5
Analysis:
The Arizona Cardinals will play host to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon in Phoenix. This was at one time considered another home game for the Cowboys but that has changed with the Cardinals recent success and Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt’s drive to change the culture in Arizona.
Arizona has won eight of their last ten games at home including two wins this season. They hosted the Miami Dolphins and at the time an undefeated Buffalo Bills team and the Cardinals outscored these two teams 72-17 in those two wins.
Besides having to contend with arguably the deepest division in the NFL, the Cowboys are also struggling to live up to the high expectations set for them before the season. Their last three wins - all against teams currently with losing records - have been by an average of just 8.0 points.
Dallas scored the first 17 points last week before giving up 16 unanswered to the Bengals and needing a late push to hold on.
The Dallas defense has struggled this season and they are short-handed in the defensive secondary as Newman had to have sports hernia surgery and will be out up to six weeks. Added to this is the distraction of PacMan Jones this week as he and his bodyguard made headlines for fighting in a hotel bathroom.
The week before the PacMan incident it was TO that made headlines for not getting the ball thrown his way enough. He had eighteen thrown to him in that game, he should spend more time worrying about the ones he drops instead of asking for more. All this has to take its toll on the team and distractions like these are the last thing this team needs right now.
The Cowboys have only one defensive interception this season and are minus four in the turnover category. Tony Romo has committed at least one turnover in eight straight games. Cards starting QB Kurt Warner has thrown for more yards and been intercepted less than Romo this season.
Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals put up 373 yards on a Buffalo defense that has played better than Dallas this season. This Cardinals team believes that they are a valid contender for the NFC West Title this season and a win over the Cowboys today goes a long way in building their momentum for the balance of the season.
Technical Support for our selection comes from the Cowboys. The Cowboys are 8-26-1 ATS on the road versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win. The Cowboys are 3-15-1 ATS on the road versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win at home. The Cowboys are 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite the week after as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 1-10-1 ATS the week after as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS on the road after a straight up win at home as a TD+ favorite.
Data base research has uncovered three strong Power Systems that are active for today’s contest. NFL Teams are 8-34 ATS as a road favorite the week after a straight up win as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The League is 5-14 ATS on the road the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The League is 7-14-1 ATS as a road favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
Our Technical Situational Report shows that Dallas is in a negative situation in today’s game. The situation says to Play AGAINST teams with a higher SU Win% last season than their current Win% and last season’s SU Win% was >than their PWP%, 123-38 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona Cardinals +5
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday October 12
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:40 EST October 8
Grade / Prediction: 5* Dallas / Arizona Over 50
Analysis:
In a matchup between the NFC’s two highest-scoring teams, the Cowboys look to make a move in the loaded East standings on Sunday when they visit the Arizona Cardinals, who hope to protect their hold on first place in the West.
Dallas returned enough of its core from last year's division-winning team to enter 2008 as a prime candidate to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Cowboys (4-1) are still on track thanks to their conference-leading 151 points, but they're not taking anything for granted in the league's only division with more than one team with at least four wins.
Arizona (3-2) looked like a legitimate contender last Sunday, when it recorded a season-high point total while handing Buffalo its first loss, 41-17. One week after turning the ball over seven times in a 56-35 loss to the New York Jets, the Cardinals won the turnover battle with the Bills 4-0.
Arizona, second in the NFC with 147 points, got a big game from quarterback Kurt Warner, who was 33-for-42 for 250 yards and two touchdowns after throwing three interceptions and losing three fumbles the previous week.
These two teams are very close statistically as we see the Cowboys average 30.2 points per game while the Cardinals average 29.4 points per game. Dallas averages 268 yards per game passing and the Cardinals throw for 282 yards per game. Dallas has an edge in the rushing department as they average 138 yards rushing per contest and the Cardinals do not break 100 yards rushing per game as they only average 94 yards rushing.
On the defensive side of the ball we also find these two teams are very close. Dallas allows 22.2 points per game and Arizona allows 24.0 points per game. Passing yards allowed are also very close with the Cowboys allowing 210 yards passing per game while the Cards allow 204. In the rushing department they are almost the same and the total offensive and defensive numbers are very close.
Our Defensive Efficiency Index shows the Cowboys ranked 22nd in the league only forcing their opponents to average 13.74 yards per point and the Cards are ranked 27th in the league forcing their opponents to an average of only 12.58 yards per point. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only defensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index shows the Cowboys ranked 10th in the league averaging 13.490 yards per point while the Cardinals are ranked 6th in the league averaging only 12.82 yards per point. These numbers show that both teams can score and do so often. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only offensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
The Cowboys have lost their last two games against the number and we know that road teams that are coming in off back-to-back ATS losses and won their last game straight up are 12-1 Over the last six seasons. NFL Teams are 40-17-2 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 7-0-1 Over the week after a win in which they had at least 150 yards rushing. NFL Teams are 12-3-1 Over as a road favorite when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average.
The Cardinals are 11-0-1 Over after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Cardinals are 14-1 Over as a dog after playing at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The League is 28-8 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. During the month of October home underdogs with a Total of 49 or more points are 12-3 Over and a perfect 5-0 Over if they are NFC teams. NFL Teams are 25-9-2 Over the week after a straight up win at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index shows both teams scoring over 29.6 points in this contest which easily covers the posted total of 50 points. Finally our Player Performance Ratings Index has Arizona (+7.2) and Dallas (+7.5) scoring more than their respective totals for this contest.
The combination of strong technical, situational and fundamental support for the “Over” in this contest makes this our 5* NFL Total Play of the Month.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Dallas / Arizona Over 50
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 12
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 10:16 EST October 8
Grade / Prediction: 4* Carolina / Tampa Bay Under 36.5
Analysis:
The 4-1 Carolina Panthers head south to Cigar City to face the hometown Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are 3-2 on the young season. This meeting on Sunday will pit the Number 1 and 2 teams of the NFC South Division.
The Panthers lead the division thanks to one of the NFL's best defenses, which has held opponents to five touchdowns the last four games and 268.6 yards per game overall which is fourth-best in the NFL.
Carolina hasn't allowed a touchdown in its last nine quarters, shutting out the Kansas City Chiefs 34-0 last Sunday after limiting the Atlanta Falcons to three field goals in a 24-9 victory on Sept. 28.
Last Sunday, the Chiefs were held to 127 yards of total offense, 35 on the ground. Larry Johnson joined Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson as leading rushers who have failed to gain 100 yards against the Panthers.
It helps that they were backed by a solid offensive effort by DeAngelo Williams, who rushed for a season-high 123 yards and two touchdowns, and Jake Delhomme was 14-of-22 for 236 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
While the revival of Delhomme and the work of the defense gives the Panthers reason to be optimistic about the future, the Buccaneers aren't even sure who will be starting at quarterback on Sunday when they try to bounce back after having their three-game winning streak snapped.
Brian Griese was knocked out of Tampa Bay's 16-13 loss to Denver in the third quarter last Sunday with a swollen right elbow. Griese was 13-of-19 for 88 yards before he was replaced by Jeff Garcia, who went 13-of-17 for 93 yards and a touchdown. Latest word out of Cigar City is the QB situation is day to day until Gruden has all the facts.
Tampa Bay’s defense is not as stout as in past seasons although they only allow 18 points per game. They also hold opponents rushing attack to only 99 yards per contest and their pass defense is only allowing 218 yards passing per game.
Our Defensive Efficiency Index shows the Buccaneers ranked 5th in the league forcing their opponents to average 16.93 yards per point and the Panthers are ranked 3rd in the league forcing their opponents to an average of 18.17 yards per point. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only defensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index shows the Buccaneers ranked 21st in the league averaging 15.36 yards per point while the Panthers are ranked 16th in the league averaging 14.47 yards per point. These numbers show that both teams are not as proficient at scoring as they are keeping other teams from the end-zone. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only offensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
Technical Support for our selection comes from both teams as we see the Panthers are 0-7 Under versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win at home. The Panthers are 2-10 Under versus any team with fewer wins. after a straight up win. The Panthers are 1-8 Under as a road dog when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Panthers are 9-23 Under when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. NFL Teams are 5-12 Under within 3 of pick the week after at home in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
The Buccaneers are 5-13 Under within 3 of pick when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 4-13 Under as a home favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 2-12 Under versus any team with more wins. after a straight up loss on the road. The Buccaneers are 1-9 Under at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date. NFL Teams are 3-10 Under within 3 of pick at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date.
Strong technical, fundamental and situational support for the “Under” in this contest makes this our NFL 4* Total Play of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Carolina / Tampa Bay Under 36.5
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