Steve Merril
(3% play) MIAMI +11.5 (at Pittsburgh) - 1:00 pm ET (CBS) #105
Miami will hit the road for their playoff game after losing 35-14 at home to New England last Sunday afternoon. Despite that loss, Miami has gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games while playing two different quarterbacks. Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill. Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s mediocre defense just like Miami did in the first meeting this season when they scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense. Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.
Pittsburgh has bounced back strong since losing their first two games after their bye back in Week 8. The Steelers have won seven consecutive games since then, but their last four wins have all come by 7 points or less. Not only that, but six of Pittsburgh’s seven wins also came against non-playoff teams. The Steelers’ defense has given up 20 points or more in each of their past four games despite playing bad offenses like the Browns, Bengals, and Ravens during that stretch. Overall, Pittsburgh’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. We’ll take Miami plus the generous points in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Play DOLPHINS (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OVER 47 (Dolphins/Steelers) - 1:00 pm ET (CBS) #105
Miami and Pittsburgh match up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon. Miami has scored 108 total points in their last four games, so they come into this game in excellent current form. Quarterback Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill. Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when Miami scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense. Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.
Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in eight straight games. Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. In the first meeting versus Miami, the Steelers only scored 15 points on 297 yards of total offense. However, QB Ben Roethlisberger had a below average game as he only completed 55.9% (19-for-34) of his passes with two interceptions. Roethlisberger was playing hurt in that game, and since he always plays better at home, expect a much better performance by the entire Pittsburgh offense in the second meeting today. Look for a high-scoring game between the Dolphins and Steelers on Sunday afternoon.
Play OVER (Dolphins/Steelers) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 (at Green Bay) - 4:40 pm ET (FOX) #107
New York quietly went 11-5 SU during the regular season, and they’ve gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games. Three of New York’s five losses this season have come by 7 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in just about every games they’ve played. New York’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 47 total points in their past four games. Overall, the Giants’ defense is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. New York’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are taking a big step-down in class versus the Green Bay defense in this game.
Green Bay came on strong down the stretch as they won their last six games of the regular season. However, the Packers’ offense was fortunate to face several weak defensive teams during that stretch. That won’t be the case this afternoon against a stout New York defense. The Packers have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, six of their wins have come by 8 points or less, including two of their last three wins. Green Bay’s defense has been poor all season as they are giving up 24.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average just 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. This should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take New York plus the points on Sunday afternoon.
Play GIANTS (+) as a 3% play.
(3% play) MIAMI +11.5 (at Pittsburgh) - 1:00 pm ET (CBS) #105
Miami will hit the road for their playoff game after losing 35-14 at home to New England last Sunday afternoon. Despite that loss, Miami has gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games while playing two different quarterbacks. Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill. Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s mediocre defense just like Miami did in the first meeting this season when they scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense. Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.
Pittsburgh has bounced back strong since losing their first two games after their bye back in Week 8. The Steelers have won seven consecutive games since then, but their last four wins have all come by 7 points or less. Not only that, but six of Pittsburgh’s seven wins also came against non-playoff teams. The Steelers’ defense has given up 20 points or more in each of their past four games despite playing bad offenses like the Browns, Bengals, and Ravens during that stretch. Overall, Pittsburgh’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. We’ll take Miami plus the generous points in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Play DOLPHINS (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OVER 47 (Dolphins/Steelers) - 1:00 pm ET (CBS) #105
Miami and Pittsburgh match up well for a high-scoring game this afternoon. Miami has scored 108 total points in their last four games, so they come into this game in excellent current form. Quarterback Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill. Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when Miami scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense. Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.
Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in eight straight games. Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. In the first meeting versus Miami, the Steelers only scored 15 points on 297 yards of total offense. However, QB Ben Roethlisberger had a below average game as he only completed 55.9% (19-for-34) of his passes with two interceptions. Roethlisberger was playing hurt in that game, and since he always plays better at home, expect a much better performance by the entire Pittsburgh offense in the second meeting today. Look for a high-scoring game between the Dolphins and Steelers on Sunday afternoon.
Play OVER (Dolphins/Steelers) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 (at Green Bay) - 4:40 pm ET (FOX) #107
New York quietly went 11-5 SU during the regular season, and they’ve gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games. Three of New York’s five losses this season have come by 7 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in just about every games they’ve played. New York’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 47 total points in their past four games. Overall, the Giants’ defense is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. New York’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are taking a big step-down in class versus the Green Bay defense in this game.
Green Bay came on strong down the stretch as they won their last six games of the regular season. However, the Packers’ offense was fortunate to face several weak defensive teams during that stretch. That won’t be the case this afternoon against a stout New York defense. The Packers have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, six of their wins have come by 8 points or less, including two of their last three wins. Green Bay’s defense has been poor all season as they are giving up 24.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average just 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. This should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take New York plus the points on Sunday afternoon.
Play GIANTS (+) as a 3% play.
