Service Plays Sunday 1/18/15

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JACK CLAYTON

01/18 03:40 PM NFL (303) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS (304) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.

5* NFL Weekend Wipeout – Take: (304) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.
Reason: A tough spot for Indy, at Denver last week and now at the Pats, an indoor team playing 2 straight outdoor games in cold weather. The Pats have so much talent and versatility on offense, so they will be able to run and pass on this weak Colts defense — something they couldn’t do last week against the Baltimore defense. On November 16 the Pats won 42-20 at the Colts. The Patriots had the edge in yards with 503, the Colts 322 as the Pats were 9-11 on third down, the Colts 5-13 (1-3 on fourth down). The Pats had 33 first downs, the Colts 17 and New England had 244 yards rushing, 5.6 ypc. Belichick followed the same tack he used in last season’s 21-point playoff victory over Indy — overpowering the Colts with the run. New England rushed for 244 yards, compared to 19 yards on 17 carries for the Colts. Brady improved to 12-4 against the Colts. The Colts sent five or more pass rushers on more than half of Tom Brady’s dropbacks (16 of 30). Brady handled the blitz well, throwing both his touchdowns against added pressure. In the 2013 Playoffs: Pats won at home, 43-22. The Colts had 4 TOs, the Pats none, and this is a much better New England defense with Browner and Revis in the secondary. Play the (304) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
 
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NFLBetting Picks / Kevin

2 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks – SEAHAWKS -7.5 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

The Seahawks have an opportunity to be the first time to repeat as Super Bowl Champions since the Patriots did in the 2004 season. If they win on Sunday it looks like they might be facing the Patriots in the Super Bowl. There has been a long history of teams collapsing the following year after winning the Super Bowl, but the Seahawks have been able to turn that around after paylaying last years success into a potential trip to Arizona for the Super Bowl this season. They face a Green Bay Packers team that they opened the season against in week 1 in this same setting in Seattle. Back then the Seahawks took care of the Packers by a score of 36-16. Now they get the Packers again at home, albeit against a less than 100 percent Aaron Rodgers. The Packers may feel fortunate that they are in this position after a call went against the Cowboys late in that one. They were able to lean on the running game of Eddie Lacy last week to make it here, rushing for 101 yards on 19 carries. They are not going to be able to rely on a run game in this game, presumably. The Seahawks are suffocating upfront and allow little running lanes for opposing running backs. The Hawks were 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground. Can’t run the ball and want to throw it with Rodgers? Good luck doing that with a gippy Rodgers on the road in Seattle vs the best pass defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allowed only 185.6 yards per game through the air. Note that the Packers haven’t been the same team on the road that they have at home. They were 4-4 during the regular season with the best team they beat being the Miami Dolphins. Remember they needed a last second touchdown to make that win happen. I fully expect the Packers to run the ball, get stuffed repeatedly, and force Rodgers into winning this game for them. I don’t know if he could at 100% and with the calf injury bothering him it will make it even more difficult. Rodgers got pressured against him early in the season against the Lions and he looked awful as a result. I see the Seahawks being able to have the same impact on Rodgers in this game. Look for the Seahawks to advance to the Super Bowl once again this season as they end the Packers’ dreams. It should be closer than the week 1 meeting, but I like the Seahawks to pull away late and win by around 10-14 points.
 
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Luca Fury



UFC Fight Night 59

Parlay at -116
Sean Spencer (-160) — UFC Fight Night 59
Urijah Hall (-675) — UFC Fight Night 59

Parlay at -103
Larkin/Howard OVER 2.5 rounds (-245) — UFC Fight Night 59
Tibau/Parke OVER 2.5 rounds (-250) — UFC Fight Night 59
 

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Sportswagers

Indy @ NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND/Indy over 53½ -109

Like many others, we too have a lean to the favorite but not enough to make a wager. For one, we see that New England is taking the majority of the bets but the line is dropping and that’s what is known as “reverse line movement. The theory is that the true “sharps” are on the dog while the small money is on the favorite. Frankly, we’re not believers of any theories that includes sharps and squares because the “squares” are just as sharp as the “sharps” these days. In other words, we don’t let the sharp money influence our choice. We are adverse to being on the same side as the public and we know for sure that when you wager on New England you are going to pay extra to do so. We also mentioned last week that not many will live to tell about the day they cashed a ticket when spotting 7 or more points to a future Hall of Fame QB. Well, if we refused to give Andrew Luck eight points last week, we sure as hell are not going to give him a converted TD this week. The alternative option of taking the points has some appeal but going over this number has the most.

In Andrew Luck's three career starts against the Patriots, the Colts have lost by the following scores: 42-20, 43-22 and 59-24. That would strongly suggest that the Colts’ staff has a lot of difficulty preparing for the Patriots. So how does the Colts defense prepare for this one? In the first meeting this season in Indianapolis, New England gashed the Colts on the ground, holding a 246-19 rushing edge and winning 42-20. If the Colts prepare to stop the run, Bill Belichick will pass all game. If they prepare to blitz and force Tom Brady to throw quickly, Belichick will have a plan for that too. In other words, the Colts can’t prepare anything that’ll work. New England will score and they’ll score often. The Colts defense is getting way too much for credit for their two playoff wins thus far. Against Cincinnati, Andy Dalton and the Bengals offensive approach was pathetic. They came in with a conservative and predictable offense that was almost laughable. Last week, Peyton Manning was missing his targets by five yards. None of those things will be on display here with Belichick and Brady.

The Colts figure to score also. The Patriots defense is just not that good. They have a weak pass rush and if Luck has time he’ll hit his targets square in the numbers like he always does. We don’t see the Colts using their running game much because they just don’t have one. Luck isn't focused on just his first option. When that is taken away (a Belichick staple) he’ll go to his second and third options and usually hit them. In fact, Luck hit eight different receivers last week. Bill Belichick is no fool. He knows he has to prepare his team to score a lot because his defense will not win them the game. Belichick and the Patriots have a strong history of high scoring games in the playoffs and with these two elite QB’s we trust this one will be a high scoring shootout too.

Recommendation: We can’t imagine that this line will drop so our advice would be to bet it ASAP. There’s a good chance it’ll rise a point or two higher on Sunday as milder temperatures +2 C are expected.

NOTE: We’re not sold on the late game on either side so we’re going to pass for now but if something catches our attention, we’ll post a play.

Our Pick
NEW ENGLAND/Indy over 53½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
 

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Football Crusher
Indianapolis Colts +7 over New England Patriots
(System Record: 54-5, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 54-46-3

 

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Hockey Crusher
Pittsburgh Penguins -135 over New York Rangers
(System Record: 55-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 55-38-1

 

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Basketball Crusher
Virginia Tech +22 over North Carolina
(System Record: 37-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 37-39-1
 

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Soccer Crusher
Westerlo + Standard Liege OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Belgium
(System Record: 691-24, lost last 2 games)

Overall Record: 691-577-106
 

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Hate to be such a Knucklehead ... but does the Prediction Machine stuff say the picks are Green Bay and the Colts with Green Bay covering 56.6% of the time and Indy covering 54.6% ?
 

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WAYNE ROOT




Millionaires--New England
---------------
Pinnacle---Seattle




The Packers will be hoping that Aaron Rodgers has enough juice left in him to finish out this postseason. Rodgers has been nursing his calf injury and that could severely limit his mobility which would be huge against the Seahawks front 7. Eddie Lacy will have to be healthy and fully recovered from his asthma issues in order to help Rodgers stay out of trouble. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will soak up the majority of offensive attention on the afternoon. While the Seahawks are rightly considered an elite defensive team, some attention should be paid to their offense. Without a true #1 receiving threat, Russel Wilson has still made his team thrive. Doug Baldwin has stepped up to catch everything thrown his way and even Marshawn Lynch is contributing. Season has come full circle in the NFC as this match-up started the season and Seahawks won big then and finish it here with another easy win. Seattle is playing best football in NFL and their great running game and elite defense dominates a banged up Packers again this week. The Packers passing game will struggle again this time Eand Green Bay can't get it fixed against the great pass defense of Seahawks. TAKE SEATTLE
 

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[h=1]NCAA Basketball Picks[/h][h=2]Oregon at Washington[/h]The Ducks head to Washington tonight to face a Huskies team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games versus Pac-12 opponents. Oregon is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+5). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 18
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 807-808: Indiana at Illinois (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 63.869; Illinois 71.500
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-4 1/2)
Game 809-810: Loyola-Chicago at Southern Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 53.959; Southern Illinois 55.417
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+2)
Game 811-812: Missouri State at Northern Iowa (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 51.967; Northern Iowa 63.860
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 12
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 16
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (+16)
Game 813-814: St. John's at DePaul (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 67.498; DePaul 57.904
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. John's by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (-5 1/2)
Game 815-816: St. Joseph's at St. Bonaventure (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 53.249; St. Bonaventure 60.889
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-5)
Game 817-818: Boise State at New Mexico (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 59.853; New Mexico 62.157
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 5
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+5)
Game 819-820: Virginia Tech at North Carolina (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 52.312; North Carolina 78.767
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 22
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-22)
Game 821-822: Oregon at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 64.818; Washington 63.423
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 5
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+5)
Game 823-824: Siena at Niagara (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 48.108; Niagara 48.121
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 825-826: Iona at Canisius (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 60.596; Canisius 57.133
Dunkel Line: Iona by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 1
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-1)
Game 827-828: IUPUI at NE-Omaha (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 45.095; NE-Omaha 53.667
Dunkel Line: NE-Omaha by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NE-Omaha by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NE-Omaha (-6 1/2)
Game 829-830: Rider at Manhattan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 55.649; Manhattan 54.398
Dunkel Line: Rider by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+2 1/2)
Game 831-832: Quinnipiac at Marist (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 53.384; Marist 41.694
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Quinnipiac (-8 1/2)
Game 833-834: Fairfield at Monmouth (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 48.048; Monmouth 52.660
Dunkel Line: Monmouth by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Monmouth by 8
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+8)
 
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[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Oklahoma City at Orlando[/h] The Thunder head to Orlando tonight following a 127-115 win over Golden State on Friday and come into the contest with a 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Oklahoma City is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9). Here are all of today's NBA picks.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 18
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 801-802: New Orleans at Toronto (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.403; Toronto 124.786
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 9 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 7; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-7); N/A
Game 803-804: Oklahoma City at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.966; Orlando 113.727
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 12; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9); Over
Game 805-806: Utah at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 118.951; San Antonio 126.597
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 11 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+11 1/2); Under
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Louisville (-4) on Saturday and likes the Seahawks on Sunday.

The deficit is 35 sirignanos.
 
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NHL

Hot teams
-- Rangers won 14 of their last 17 games. Penguins won three of last four at home.
-- Winnipeg won four of its last five games.
-- Red Wings won five of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Dallas Stars lost their last three road games. Chicago is 3-4 in its last seven games.
-- Coyotes lost their last four games, scoring five goals.
-- Buffalo lost its last ten games, scoring total of 13 goals.

Series records
-- Rangers won five of last six games with Pittsburgh.
-- Chicago won five in row, 11 of last 12 games with Dallas Stars.
-- Jets won four of last five games with Arizona.
-- Red Wings won 13 of last 15 games with Buffalo.

Totals
-- Last four Ranger games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Dallas road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Arizona road games went over.
-- Six of last eight Buffalo road games went over.

Back-to-back
-- Dallas Stars are 0-5 if they played the night before.
-- Arizona is 3-2 on road if it played the night before.
-- Sabres are 3-6 if they played night before; Detroit is 3-2.
 
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NBA

Hot Teams
-- San Antonio won four of its last five games (8-11-1 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Pelicans lost four of their last six games (5-0 last five AU). Toronto lost six of its last eight games (1-5 last six HF).
-- Thunder lost three of last five games, are 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight (2-3 AF). Orlando lost seven of last nine games (4-8 HU).
-- Jazz lost three of last four but covered nine of last 11 on road.

Series Records
-- Raptors won eight of last nine games with New Orleans.
-- Thunder won five of last six games with Orlando.
-- Spurs won 16 of last 19 games with Utah.

Totals
-- Four of last five Pelican road games stayed under.
-- Last five Orlando home games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Utah road games stayed under.

Back-to-Backs
-- None
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at ORLANDO
Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games
63-29 since 1997. ( 68.5% | 31.1 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at ORLANDO
Play Against - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (ORLANDO) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games
475-144 since 1997. ( 76.7% | 126.8 units )
14-3 this year. ( 82.4% | 4.5 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at ORLANDO
Play On - Home underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (ORLANDO) after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
 

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