STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/12/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
•Trends of The Day
-- SAN ANTONIO is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 110.3, OPPONENT 97.3.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 105.6, OPPONENT 98.3.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 17-2 (+16.0 Units) against the money line off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 105.4, OPPONENT 92.7.
-- CLEVELAND is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 43.8, OPPONENT 55.5.
-- ATLANTA is 22-8 OVER (+13.2 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 49.5, OPPONENT 51.9.
-- RICK ADELMAN is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) after 3 straight games with 55 or more rebounds as the coach of MINNESOTA.
The average score was ADELMAN 109.8, OPPONENT 107.9.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
Play On - Favorites (SACRAMENTO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less.
(22-3 since 1996.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (22-3)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.3, Opponent 95.2 (Average point differential = +10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (52% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
___________________________________________
#801 CLEVELAND @ #802 SACRAMENTO
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, FSN Ohio (Cleveland), CSN California (Sacramento) - Line: Kings -3, Total: 204) - The Sacramento Kings finally turned in a solid effort against a sub-.500 team and will look for another when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. The Kings knocked off contenders such as Miami, Houston and Portland in the past two weeks but had trouble with the likes of Philadelphia and Charlotte before defeating the Orlando Magic 103-83 on Friday. The Cavaliers took the opener of their five-game road trip at Utah 113-102 on Friday.
The win over the Jazz improved Cleveland’s NBA-worst road mark to 3-15 but provided a more complete picture of the team as Luol Deng made his debut after being acquired from Chicago. Deng scored 10 points in 21 minutes as he settled into a faster-paced offense than the one the Bulls ran post-Derrick Rose. “I’m really excited,” Deng told reporters after his first game with the Cavaliers. “I see the way guys are setting a screen, where we are scoring from. I just want to bring in something that we don’t have, whether it’s posting up or defensively getting the guys going.”
•ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (13-23 SU, 17-19-0 ATS): Cleveland has won back-to-back games - not coincidentally the two games since Kyrie Irving’s return from a three-game absence due to a knee injury. Irving collected 25 points and eight assists against Utah and stands to benefit from Deng drawing some attention from the defense. “I know that (Deng’s) going to continue to get better every single game,” Irving told reporters. “I’m looking forward to continuing to play with him.” Deng drew praise from coach Mike Brown for his presence on the bench. “I like the stuff he was saying to our guys at halftime, before the game, in the huddles and during the flow of action,” Brown told reporters.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (12-22 SU, 14-19-1 ATS): Sacramento made its big trade last month when it acquired Rudy Gay from the Toronto Raptors. Gay is proving to be a solid scoring compliment to DeMarcus Cousins and Isaiah Thomas and is averaging 20.6 points on 51.4 percent shooting in 14 games with the Kings after struggling to 19.4 on 38.8 percent from the field in the first 18 games with the Raptors. Sacramento tends to struggle is on the defensive end, where it had yielded at least 100 points in 10 straight games before clamping down against the Magic.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Kings took both meetings last season by a total of nine points.... Cleveland F Tristan Thompson has recorded a double-double in three straight games and four of the last five.... Sacramento rookie G Ben McLemore lost his starting spot and has totaled seven points on 3-of-19 shooting in the last four games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the spread 581 times, while CLEVELAND covered the spread 394 times. *EDGE against the spread =SACRAMENTO. In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO won the game straight up 652 times, while CLEVELAND won 328 times. In 1000 simulated games, 491 games went over the total, while 482 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 558 times, while CLEVELAND covered the first half line 442 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went under first half total, while 463 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SACRAMENTO is 16-14 against the spread versus CLEVELAND since 1996.
--CLEVELAND is 16-15 straight up against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 17-13 versus the first half line when playing against CLEVELAND since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Cavaliers are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
--Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
--Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Kings are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Under is 6-1-1 in Kings last 8 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1 in Kings last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
_______________________________
#803 ATLANTA @ #804 MEMPHIS
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, SportSouth (Atlanta, Memphis) - Line: Grizzlies -4, Total: 193.5) - The Atlanta Hawks look to follow up an impressive homestand with a road win when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday. The Hawks went 2-4 after star center Al Horford's season-ending injury before rebounding at home this week with wins over Eastern Conference-leading Indiana and Western Conference standout Houston. Atlanta posted its best defensive effort of the season in an 83-80 triumph over the Rockets on Friday.
Memphis is also surviving without a key player as it has gone 2-1 since a hand injury sidelined guard Tony Allen, who joined center Marc Gasol on the list of absent starters. Point guard Mike Conley picked up the slack with 31 points in a 104-99 victory over Phoenix on Saturday, the team's sixth win in 10 games following a 1-7 stretch. The Hawks swept the two-game series last season and have won three straight in Memphis.
•ABOUT THE HAWKS (20-17 SU, 21-16-0 ATS): Horford ranks among the franchise's all-time leaders in blocked shots and rebounds, among other categories, but Atlanta has managed to step up its game on the defensive end in his absence. After limiting the Pacers in a 97-87 victory, the Hawks held the usually hot-shooting Rockets to a 41.4 percent mark from the floor while forcing 16 turnovers. Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver scored 20 points apiece as Atlanta survived some poor shooting of its own (37.2 percent) in improving to 14-5 at home.
•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (16-19 SU, 15-19-1 ATS): When Memphis made its rise last season, it did so largely on the strength of dominance on the glass and some solid interior defense, both of which were aided by the presence of Gasol. Without one of their big men in the fold, forward Ed Davis has begun to step up, recording 10 points and a career-high 17 rebounds against the Suns. Davis has three double-doubles this month after recording just one in his first 30 games and gives the Grizzlies a better chance to weather the storm until Gasol returns, possibly before the month is out.
•PREGAME NOTES: Hawks PF Mike Scott averaged 14.5 points on 12-of-19 shooting in 17.5 minutes off the bench during the 2-0 homestand.... Atlanta entered Saturday ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game (25.3) while Memphis was last (14.2).... Memphis is 16-10 against teams outside its division, compared to 0-9 versus divisional opponents.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the spread 500 times, while ATLANTA covered the spread 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 605 times, while ATLANTA won 375 times. In 1000 simulated games, 599 games went over the total, while 401 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the first half line 492 times, while ATLANTA covered the first half line 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 555 games went over first half total, while 445 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 19-10 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--ATLANTA is 21-11 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--16 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ATLANTA is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Hawks are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Hawks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-0 in Hawks last 6 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Over is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 overall.
--Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
_______________________________
#805 MINNESOTA @ #806 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN North (Minnesota), FSN Southwest (San Antonio) - Line: Spurs -6, Total: 211.5) - Kevin Love took the unusual step of calling out his teammates publicly after a tough loss and the tactic seemed to work - at least for one night. The Timberwolves will try to carry that momentum to a second straight triumph when they visit the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday. Love was upset that certain reserves did not join the huddle or encourage teammates down the stretch of a 104-103 loss to Phoenix on Wednesday but had no complaints after trouncing Charlotte on Friday.
The 119-92 victory over the Bobcats brought Minnesota back to .500 at 18-18, and it will take its ninth shot at going above the even mark. The Spurs will try to make it 0-9 as they aim for a fourth straight win despite Manu Ginobili (hamstring) and Tiago Splitter (shoulder) dealing with injuries. San Antonio won six of its last seven games to take over the top record in the Western Conference and overcame 42 points from Love to post a 117-110 home victory over the Timberwolves on Dec. 13.
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (18-18 SU, 20-16-0 ATS): Love recorded 19 points and 14 rebounds Friday before sitting on the end of the bench and watching the second unit he had chastised earlier close out the win. J.J. Barea was one of the targets of Love’s comments and he ended up with seven points and five assists against the Bobcats. “You just got to stay with it,” Barea told reporters. “It’s a long season. You’ve got to keep getting better. We’re going to have a chance. You gotta take advantage.”
•ABOUT THE SPURS (28-8 SU, 19-17-0 ATS): Ginobili could be ready to go Sunday, though San Antonio did not have much need for the veteran swingman while crushing Dallas 112-90 on Wednesday. The Spurs are averaging 111.4 points in their last seven games and got 17 points off the bench from Marco Belinelli out of Ginobili’s usual spot Wednesday. Tim Duncan is on a roll with three straight double-doubles and is averaging 19.7 points and 13.7 rebounds during that stretch while Splitter has been out of the lineup for the last two.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Timberwolves snapped a 16-game losing streak in San Antonio in the regular-season finale last year, but fell short of two straight despite Love going 8-of-9 from 3-point range in the Dec. 13 meeting.... Love has been held to less than 20 points in two straight games after hitting the mark in 14 in a row.... San Antonio and Minnesota had a scheduled game in Mexico City on Dec. 4 postponed when smoke from a damaged generator outside filled the arena. It will be made up April 8 in Minneapolis.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 658 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 318 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 782 times, while MINNESOTA won 210 times. In 1000 simulated games, 506 games went over the total, while 494 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 584 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 382 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went under first half total, while 469 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 35-34 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 48-25 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--35 of 67 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 36-32 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--38 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Timberwolves last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 6-0-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
_______________________________
